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chochoking

Play the QB of the opponent WR(s)

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I have 
D. Prescott
J. Winston
Passing Touchdowns: 4 points

I'm going against 
Chris Godwin WR - TB
Mike Evans WR - TB
Receiving Touchdowns: 6 points

So my thinking is I should play J. Winston, just in case they go off
I reap some of the benefits or just go with the better match up with Dak Prescott

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This question comes up every year. The CW seems to be that you should only consider it you are a huge favorite, since you want to limit your downside risk. By contrast, if you are a huge underdog you should never do it, because it also limits upside.(And either way were talking at the margins of an otherwise close decision. You should never bench Mahomes for Minshew just because your opponent has DJ Chark.)

 But mostly you should just start the lineup that will give you the most points, since that gives you the best chance to win

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58 minutes ago, chochoking said:

I have 
D. Prescott
J. Winston
Passing Touchdowns: 4 points

I'm going against 
Chris Godwin WR - TB
Mike Evans WR - TB
Receiving Touchdowns: 6 points

So my thinking is I should play J. Winston, just in case they go off
I reap some of the benefits or just go with the better match up with Dak Prescott

Like @zftcg said, you start the players you think will score the most points for your team, period.

Since you're going against BOTH Bucs WRs though, I think I would purposely NOT start Winston, just so I can hope that he sucks (and with TB missing some key offensive linemen against a solid Panthers' pass rush--in Londond--that could well be the case), because even if Winston DOES go off, that's just going to spell your doom by giving your opponents' WRs a monster day.

So start Prescott and root against Winston.

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5 minutes ago, huskyhater75 said:

I'd go with Jamey Winston, TB HAS to throw while Dak can simply (if Dallas plays smart this week) hand off to Zeke all day.

HA! I just read an article where Panthers went over to England after practice in Carolina Thursday and got there Thursday AM, while TB went the next morning and got there what-8 to 12 hours after-and were whining about how bad they'd played when there before and everything else. I'd go with the mentally tougher team. PLUS...........the team that acclimates itself to "their" time is the one that usually wins. Oakland went there a couple days before Bears did. Just what I read................good luck!

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Play the one that you believe will get you the most points. Don't over complicate things.

If the Bucs go off, yes you may cancel them out so to speak but you're just breaking even or something like that.

What if they dud though, and Dak goes off? That's also breaking even at the expense of a big pay off

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I would start Winston. 

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it can work.

I guess what it comes down to is does the rest of your team beat the rest of his.

you know if Godwin and Evans get 2 TD's each, your QB is getting 4.

but the downside of that is, if those WR's stink the joint out, so is your QB.

but in this case Prescott is playing the Jets D this week, so I dont know if hes a great play so maybe this is the move anyways

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Your opponents lineup is irrelevant in FF, just start who you think will be best for your team. There’s no such thing as cancelling out. 

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Ahhh...the Cancel Out theory. However, the game is in England. Everything's opposite over there. Hell, they drive on the wrong side of the road. You're supposed to use the Anti-Cancel Out theory. Start Prescott, you should do great.

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4 hours ago, tanatastic said:

Your opponents lineup is irrelevant in FF, just start who you think will be best for your team. There’s no such thing as cancelling out. 

Well there is, for sure. 

If Winston throws a 50yd TD to Evans, that’s 6 points for Winston, and 12 points to Evans assuming it’s PPR. If you start Winston and he has a monster day, you’re really hoping he does it without Evans/Godwin going off, otherwise the advantage is with the opponent. 

I had a similar situation a couple of weeks ago starting Mahomes when my opponent had Watkins and Kelce. I was rooting for big stats from Mahomes, while not wanting any of those catches to go to two of his top targets. Puts you in a tough spot. In the end Mahomes had a below par day, 18 pts, but it did mean two of his biggest weapons weren’t a factor and I won the matchup. 

Obviously I didn’t bench Mahomes, and you can still start Winston, but you may enjoy things more starting Prescott and hoping Winston sucks. If that happens, and Prescott puts up a good line, you’re well on your way to a win. 

Just food for thought. 

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6 hours ago, tanatastic said:

Your opponents lineup is irrelevant in FF, just start who you think will be best for your team. There’s no such thing as cancelling out. 

And what is your evidence, sir?

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It would depend on if you are in PPR scoring and how much qb gets for yards.  If PPR, there is no way Winston will keep up with them, so you are just digging yourself a hole.

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6 hours ago, show me the murray said:

Well there is, for sure. 

There isn’t. Nothing your QB does can “cancel” what your opponents WRs do. Your WRs can cancel out his WRs, your QB can cancel out his QB. There’s no world where Winston throws a 60yd td to Evans and you are happy about it. You got gashed by your opponents WR. Your Winston coincidentally also threw a 60yd td but that doesn’t make it better. His QB is yet to play still.

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2 hours ago, tanatastic said:

There isn’t. Nothing your QB does can “cancel” what your opponents WRs do. Your WRs can cancel out his WRs, your QB can cancel out his QB. There’s no world where Winston throws a 60yd td to Evans and you are happy about it. You got gashed by your opponents WR. Your Winston coincidentally also threw a 60yd td but that doesn’t make it better. His QB is yet to play still.

I notice you ignored my post. Some analytics would be nice 

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Are analytics really necessary? If Dak scores 23 and Jameis scores 20, then his team would have 3 more points regardless of how the Tampa Receivers perform. Its more like elementary school arithmetic...

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As many of us have said now, the main consideration is to always start the players that you think will score the most points for your fantasy team, regardless of who your opponent is starting--but the fact remains that there IS a positive correlation between the performances of a QB and a WR from the same team that is not there between the performances of a QB and a WR from different teams.

Here's a little illustration of how the scores of QBs and WRs from different teams and from the same team are correlated:

QB/WR Correlation

In the first figure, which represents a QB and a WR from different teams, as the QBs production increases, the WRs production is unaffected (flat line)--the expectation for the WRs production remains the same, no matter what the QB does.

In the second figure, which represents a QB and a WR from the same team, when the QB sucks, the WR tends to suck even more, since whatever meager production the QB had is spread among the whole team, and the WR is forced to have a piece of a smaller pie.  However, when the QB does well, the WR tends to do even better from a fantasy standpoint, since receiving yardage and receiving TDs are typically scored more favorably than passing yardage and passing TDs.

So you would almost NEVER want to start the QB of your opponent's stud WR--it puts you in the position where the best-case scenario for you is that your QB sucks, and that's just crazy--why would you want to start a player that you have to root AGAINST?  Now, if you're choosing between two otherwise comparable WRs and one of them is on the same team as your opponent's QB, AND you think there's a pretty good chance of your opponent's QB doing well that day, then you could use that as a tiebreaker for playing a WR for the opponent's QB--but not for playing the QB of the opponent's WR.

This is also why starting a QB and a WR from the same team over the course of a season is not a good idea, compared to similar QBs and WRs from different teams--because your team's scoring will be way less consistent--you'll have higher highs, but lower lows, with less chance of your QB or WR bailing out your team when the other one sucks if they are from the same NFL team, because their scoring is positively correlated.

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2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

QB/WR Correlation

You broke out the graph! But I understand, Thanks, I will take this good advice, everybody kinda agreed

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Winston is the play.  

Hey good luck with the pick, can you post who you picked? 

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3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

So you would almost NEVER want to start the QB of your opponent's stud WR

Sure you would. First of all, it all depends on your options. If your QBs are Mahomes and Darnold, you would obviously want to start Mahomes even if your opponent had Tyreek (or Kelce or whoever). Second, as I outlined above, you would actively want to do it in a scenario where you are a heavy favorite. 

All else being equal, matching your opponent is neither a good nor a bad strategy. It is a less risky strategy, just as doubling up is riskier. (Incidentally, I had Mahomes and Tyreek last year. Worked out OK for me.)

 Generally speaking, we don’t know enough about any situation to say with certainty how much risk we should assume on a weekly basis, which is why you should only consider questions like this at the margins and put your primary focus on maximizing your own point total. 

To put it another way: the ultimate goal of fantasy is not to score the most points, it is to score more than your opponent. However, since you have no control over your opponent’s score, you’re generally better off maximizing your total

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1 minute ago, zftcg said:

Sure you would. First of all, it all depends on your options. If your QBs are Mahomes and Darnold, you would obviously want to start Mahomes even if your opponent had Tyreek (or Kelce or whoever).

Well, I said ALMOST never.  Hill is kind of streaky, though; I was thinking more along the lines of a true stud, like Cooper/Allen/Thomas/Kupp--and of course when you had a legitimate option and it wasn't Philip Rivers or Josh Rosen.

In any case, you'd be rooting against your QB utilizing his best weapon, at the very least, and hoping he throws 4 TDs to the third-string TE.

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I vote for Dak. Winston’s line is injured and they already sucked.. 

 

Does that cancel out theory work better if were to start Fuller against Watson?

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And I thought your best move in setting up your lineup is to score the most points you can to win against your opponent. Go figure. :dunno:

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9 hours ago, nobody said:

It would depend on if you are in PPR scoring and how much qb gets for yards.  If PPR, there is no way Winston will keep up with them, so you are just digging yourself a hole.

I wouldnt agree with this at all.   he has winstons 2 best WR's going against him.  if between the two of them, they get 200 yards and 3 TD's then Wiinston is getting 200 yards + rest of team passing yardage, and 3 TD's + rest of team throwing TD's.   there is a good chance he offsets an awful lot of the good day those two WR's  had and he only takes up one slot in the lineup. 

anyone who says what the other guy plays doesnt matter isnt correct. 50% of the outcome is based on what the other guy does.   50% is based on what you do and the head to head matchups in fantasy football can play out in numerous ways and there are certain things you can do to increase your chances of an upset in any given week specifically because you are in a head to head format.

The cancel out theory is real.    and can be used.   but you need to be careful about when and where you use it.

in the case of the two tampa WR's vs the tampa QB, if the matchup is a good one (let's say vs New York or Miami) I think you need to play the QB to minimize the damage those WR's do to you.

if the matchup is crappy you likely dont want to make that play.

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Wait, is this our first cancel-out theory topic of this year?  :shocking:

Here is the bottom line:  PLAY THE PLAYERS YOU BELIEVE WILL SCORE THE MOST POINTS!  You cannot control what your opponent does.  You are borderline voluntarily benching what may be a superior option to because you want to match your opponent?  

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1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

I wouldnt agree with this at all.   he has winstons 2 best WR's going against him.  if between the two of them, they get 200 yards and 3 TD's then Wiinston is getting 200 yards + rest of team passing yardage, and 3 TD's + rest of team throwing TD's. 

In that scenario, the WRs get 38 points (standard, probly more like 50 in PPR), and Winston gets 20 points.

Even if Winston threw for another 150 yards and 2 TDs to Perriman--that's still just 34 points for Winston in what will probably be a losing effort.

If Dak gets 34 points, it's not going to benefit his opponent in any way.

If you start Winston, you're hoping he gets 8 points so that the two WRs combine for 7 catches for 90 yards and no TDs.  Or you're hoping Winston throws a ton to Barber and OJ and forgets about his two top-10 WRs.

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And we all know everyone in that offense not named Evans and Godwin are afterthoughts.  You might get a fluke 70 yards and a TD out of the rest of the cast, but Arians and Winston only have eyes for Evans and Godwin.

Of his 1300 yards passing about 875 are to those two guys and they have 10 of 11 receiving TDs.  OJ and that runningback Dare Ogunbawale are the only other two that are even worth mentioning.

If you're an underdog in this matchup, game theory would suggest to not start Winston and pray for a terrible day from the passing game.  The better the Tampa offense does, the bigger the hole you'll be in no matter what.

This would make since if you were in a TD only league and all TDs were worth 6 points.  Then it would be difficult for your opponent to outpace you.  That would be the true cancel out theory scenario.

With typical scoring Jameis is the one being cancelled out here because they force so much of their passing game through those two wide receivers.

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15 hours ago, tanatastic said:

There isn’t. Nothing your QB does can “cancel” what your opponents WRs do. Your WRs can cancel out his WRs, your QB can cancel out his QB. There’s no world where Winston throws a 60yd td to Evans and you are happy about it. You got gashed by your opponents WR. Your Winston coincidentally also threw a 60yd td but that doesn’t make it better. His QB is yet to play still.

I mean if you read my post that was literally my point - not that Winston cancels out his WRs, but the other way round. If you play Winston you’re hoping for big stats but not to two of the best WRs in the NFL. Hence why I finished my post by saying you’d probably get more enjoyment out of starting Dak.

On the other hand if Winston absolutely sucks then chances are he DOES cancel out the opponents WRs. It can work both ways but personally I don’t want to be in a situation where I’m hoping my fantasy QB stinks up the place. 

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In any type of scoring format, if Winston scores 25 fantasy points, no matter who he throws TDs to, and your bench QB scores 30, in what universe would you rather have played Winston? 

Pick the guy you think will score the most points.

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The funny thing is that last year I instituted a policy where I don’t even look at my opponent’s lineup until 7:00 on Sunday night, precisely because I realized it was less fun to root against players. So I never even consider matching because I don’t even know it’s an option

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4 hours ago, sderk said:

In any type of scoring format, if Winston scores 25 fantasy points, no matter who he throws TDs to, and your bench QB scores 30, in what universe would you rather have played Winston? 

Pick the guy you think will score the most points.

Great point when you know for a fact one guy is going to outscore the other.  Obviously, no one really knows for sure.

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Good rule is to never use the words “cancel out” in FF in any capacity ever. It doesn’t exist. Your QB sucking just sucks, it’s not magically made better by your opponents WRs also sucking. 
 

Also in an unrelated note, Winston was horrendous good lord.

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In my league, my opponent started Dak and got 20 points and Case Keenum for 19 points (good thing he dropped Mariota for Keenum and benched Minshew), hahaha.  I had Winston on my bench, he got 20 too.  I started Lamar Jackson (35 points) and Deshaun Watson (32 points).  I win!

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21 hours ago, Gepetto said:

In my league, my opponent started Dak and got 20 points and Case Keenum for 19 points (good thing he dropped Mariota for Keenum and benched Minshew), hahaha.  I had Winston on my bench, he got 20 too.  I started Lamar Jackson (35 points) and Deshaun Watson (32 points).  I win!

Cool story, bro. What does it have to do with the subject of this thread?

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