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oldtimer

Who did you miss on this season?

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We all post about who we hit on, but who did you miss out on, or pass over, and wish you had drafted?

Mine: 

  • I passed on David Johnson because I thought the offensive line was too poor for him to have an effective, completely forgetting how many passes he could catch in this offense. 
  • I also passed on Chubb - I was NOT a fan of his prior to the season.  My loss.  While he's had two games under 12 points, the rest have been very good.  I thought them needing a LT and G would impair his numbers much more. 

I was open to pretty much everyone else that has turned out good, or bad, but these two I passed on multiple times. 

 

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Austin Hooper. I actually talked him up this preseason on here but couldn't pass up the value I thought I would be getting in a top TE like OJ Howard. Planned on taking him as a backup later on but too late. 

Also the Patriots DST. I really liked their schedule but since I stream to start the year and only prefer carrying one DST in favor of bench stashes I pivoted off of them and onto Dallas cause they had the easier Week 1-3 matchups. 

 

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So far my biggest miss is David Montgomery but I honestly believe it has more to do with the Bear's offense than it does his talent.

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Dalvin Cook. I protected Gurley with my 1.05 pick but turns out Cook went unprotected. Could've had him at 5.

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Could have had Kupp.  I was a bit concerned that the Rams offense would take a step back (correct) and that Kupp may not be fully healthy (incorrect).

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I really liked Mixon but luckily missed out on him in all 3 of my leagues. Can’t believe what little production he’s getting and the bengals coaching staff for not even trying to get the ball in his hands. He was a solid receiver in college so I expected a lot of check downs like Saquon received last year. 

Bengals are really bad.

 

The other is obviously Chris Godwin. I told myself a bad QB can’t spread the ball that much and have so many fantasy relevant players. I was right about Winston but the victims have been Evans and howard. Not at all Godwin if anything the opposite he’s been insane.

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7 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

So far my biggest miss is David Montgomery but I honestly believe it has more to do with the Bear's offense than it does his talent.

You really think that?

 

I was never high on him coming out of the combine so I was surprised he was drafted as early as he was. His film in college is not bad but I think RB is one of the positions where the combine really does mean something. Montgomery’s combine numbers are average to below average at best. 

 

There were many other RBs to pick in this draft class who I thought had a better combine. Henderson, singletary, Tony pollard, etc.

 

i think you and many others fell in love with his film (perceived talent) and his situation.

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7 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

So far my biggest miss is David Montgomery but I honestly believe it has more to do with the Bear's offense than it does his talent.

My biggest gripe was the comparison to David Johnson that I kept seeing all offseason. Sure on film he may look like David johnson but DJ destroyed the combine. Montgomery’s combine numbers don’t hold DJ jockstrap. And DJ is the perfect example of why combine numbers matter when it comes to RBs. Chris Johnson is another good example. Remember when Ronald Jones kept getting Jamaal Charles comparisons? 

 

Sometimes we need to snap back to reality. 

 

It may very well be the coaching that is holding Montgomery back, but I doubt it.

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I picked in the back half of the first round in both of my drafts. I ended up taking Bell in one league and DJ in the other, but that was only because they fell further than I expected and I had them ranked slightly ahead of the two guys I was targeting: Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook.

In the immortal words of Moxy Fruvous, "Can't really call that a loss or a win."

(Honestly can't remember who I would have chosen if it had come down to those two. I think Mixon, which kinda freaks me out.)

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Misses thus far:

DWill/Darwin - although all of my drafts were before Shady was signed. Still holding, but the entire lack of a running game in KC has been hard to explain.

DMont - I still believe in his talent. Again, the entire Bear rushing situation is a head-scratcher.

Cook - meaning that I believed in his talent, but faded him in drafts because I simply didn't trust his health. Am invested in Mattison, as a result.

 

Fortunately, faded JuJu, Hopkins, OBJ, and Gurley. All my squads are holding their own thanks in part to quick triggers on McLaurin and Chark, as well as Mahomie, Kelce, and Carson holding their own (albeit somewhat below expectations so far). Am also a Singletary owner, and am expecting great things from him down the stretch.

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11 hours ago, oldtimer said:

We all post about who we hit on, but who did you miss out on, or pass over, and wish you had drafted?

Mine: 

  • I passed on David Johnson because I thought the offensive line was too poor for him to have an effective, completely forgetting how many passes he could catch in this offense. 
  • I also passed on Chubb - I was NOT a fan of his prior to the season.  My loss.  While he's had two games under 12 points, the rest have been very good.  I thought them needing a LT and G would impair his numbers much more. 

I was open to pretty much everyone else that has turned out good, or bad, but these two I passed on multiple times. 

 

I had first pick in our draft (league of 25 years, draw out of a hat every year for draft order) and took Barkley. When it came back around I took ODB (LOSER!!!!) and Chubb. First 2 picks looked like studs but turned out to be season killers, Barkley getting hurt is something that happens, ODB is a selfish me-first jerk that needs his @$$ kicked by his teammates, I will NEVER EVER draft him again.

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16 hours ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

Godwin (round 6) and Lamar Jackson (round 12th).

Both went late in my draft.  Could had easily gotten them.

I didn't get Godwin in any league, but didn't consider him a miss as by the time I drafted, he was going in the early 4th round and I ended up with Carson in most of my leagues as my 3rd RB, so it was a wash.  I just traded for L. Jackson, but yeah, he was a miss.  I had the opportunity to draft him, and truly wanted him, but at the last second changed my mind and took Wentz as both were available late. 

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9 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

I had the opportunity to draft him, and truly wanted him, but at the last second changed my mind and took Wentz as both were available late. 

I was in the exact same situation. The funny thing was I was picking near the turn. I took Wentz, but then was bummed out that in the four picks before my next one, someone took Njoku, which meant I had to settle for ... Mark Andrews. At the time, I was really thinking that I would have rather had Njoku and Lamar instead of Wentz and Andrews. Turns out I was only half right, but, on balance, I got the better end of the deal. Jackson ended up lasting a few more rounds, so I could have had him, but in a one QB league I didn't want to waste the pick.

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14 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

You really think that?

 

I was never high on him coming out of the combine so I was surprised he was drafted as early as he was. His film in college is not bad but I think RB is one of the positions where the combine really does mean something. Montgomery’s combine numbers are average to below average at best. 

 

There were many other RBs to pick in this draft class who I thought had a better combine. Henderson, singletary, Tony pollard, etc.

 

i think you and many others fell in love with his film (perceived talent) and his situation.

I do really think that.  I don't think I care about the combine numbers as much as some people do.  I prefer to see how they perform on the field.  I saw Montgomery play a good amount in college and thought he was a really good RB.  The running game is not working for the Bears right now and it doesn't have anything to do with Montgomery.

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I do really think that.  I don't think I care about the combine numbers as much as some people do.  I prefer to see how they perform on the field.  I saw Montgomery play a good amount in college and thought he was a really good RB.  The running game is not working for the Bears right now and it doesn't have anything to do with Montgomery.

That last part screams of denial. The running game starts with the guys up front but ends with the running back. Regardless of who is at fault for their struggles, to say the Montgomery has nothing to do with the struggles? He’s gotta be at least 1% the reason right?

 

Look at his game logs from last year in college. Notice how his best games were against tiny schools and worst games against larger programs - Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas, etc.

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I;m only in dynasty leagues so it's a limited draft but I had the chance to get Godwin, but I usually try to get rookies, so I passed on him.

Luckily I got him in another but still, would love to have him in both

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4 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

That last part screams of denial. The running game starts with the guys up front but ends with the running back. Regardless of who is at fault for their struggles, to say the Montgomery has nothing to do with the struggles? He’s gotta be at least 1% the reason right?

 

Look at his game logs from last year in college. Notice how his best games were against tiny schools and worst games against larger programs - Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas, etc.

I remember before the season started that people were worried about Montgomery because they had Davis and Cohen in the backfield to take away snaps.  Neither of them have been able to run in this offense either.

He's a good RB that can break tackles and catch.  He would be putting up a good amount of points on a good offense.

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15 hours ago, stonewall said:

DWill/Darwin - although all of my drafts were before Shady was signed. Still holding, but the entire lack of a running game in KC has been hard to explain.

Easy explanation - Patrick Mahomes.

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I remember before the season started that people were worried about Montgomery because they had Davis and Cohen in the backfield to take away snaps.  Neither of them have been able to run in this offense either.

He's a good RB that can break tackles and catch.  He would be putting up a good amount of points on a good offense.

Imagine being worried about Davis and Cohen AND also not thinking Montgomery was a good RB. Easy DND for his ADP.

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Jared Goff was a big miss for me.  I really thought he was the best late round QB pick.  I figured if he was going to have three WRs projected to finish in the top 30 then he should have a monster year.  What a disaster so far.

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Just now, LoOnAtIk said:

Imagine being worried about Davis and Cohen AND also not thinking Montgomery was a good RB. Easy DND for his ADP.

I got him later than most people got him on my team.  He's my RB3.

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You guys just reminded me that I was all in on Jacobs and Montgomery as my RB2 and got snaked on both in the two picks immediately before mine. So I was left with ... Mark Ingram.

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1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

That last part screams of denial. The running game starts with the guys up front but ends with the running back. Regardless of who is at fault for their struggles, to say the Montgomery has nothing to do with the struggles? He’s gotta be at least 1% the reason right?

 

Look at his game logs from last year in college. Notice how his best games were against tiny schools and worst games against larger programs - Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas, etc.

Yeah but how do you explain Miles Sanders then.  He's got maybe the best run blocking line in football and elite measurables but dude can't manage to get through the line.  His only value is catching passes or hoping he can bounce outside. 

There's more the RB position than measurables.  Devin Singletary may wind up being the best of the round 2-3 RB's this year and his combine numbers were garbage.

I'm a Montgomery owner and I'm concerned he's not all he was cracked up to be but I don't think it's so much an athleticism issue as it is that he seems to be too much of a dancer at the point of attack.  Maybe he'll adjust, maybe he wont, but he's not any worse than Sanders who seems to have zero grasp of how running plays work. 

 

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Dalvin Cook or Julio Jones in the 1st, instead I went with Nuk... I waited too long to draft Ingram as well. 

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I hated Dak, and targeted Connor ahead of Cook.

injuries killed me.. or idiocy... AB, Njoku, Guice, Shepard... 

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1 hour ago, shutdown said:

Yeah but how do you explain Miles Sanders then.  He's got maybe the best run blocking line in football and elite measurables but dude can't manage to get through the line.  His only value is catching passes or hoping he can bounce outside. 

There's more the RB position than measurables.  Devin Singletary may wind up being the best of the round 2-3 RB's this year and his combine numbers were garbage.

I'm a Montgomery owner and I'm concerned he's not all he was cracked up to be but I don't think it's so much an athleticism issue as it is that he seems to be too much of a dancer at the point of attack.  Maybe he'll adjust, maybe he wont, but he's not any worse than Sanders who seems to have zero grasp of how running plays work. 

 

Why do I need to explain Miles Sanders? I wasn’t talking about him. His combine numbers were solid, nothing special. Better than Montgomery but that isn’t saying much. 

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