Goff

[rrmcguire 36]

So I think I may dump Goff, one he's been playing like hot garbage and 2 his schedule isn't great ROS, my other QB is Winston, if I drop Goff I can pickup

Kyle Allen

Foles

Darnold

Josh Allen

 

We have -6 per interception, 6 points per TD....all have decent matchups but looking for the best option where I can stream with Winston with his best matchup plays

 

thanks

[polecatt 399]

If you have that big a penalty for picks I don't know that Winston is your guy. I would consider Josh Allen, or Kyle Allen.

I was thinking the same thing about Goff though on the two teams I have him. I haven't hardly played him all year. He's had just as many terrible games as good games. I haven't started him since the first couple of weeks of the season. I have Matt Ryan on one team and Kyler Murray on another and both have been head and shoulders above Goff.

Goff slowed down towards the end of last season and he's not picked it back up since. I think he misses an effective Todd Gurley among other things.

[rrmcguire 36]

only thing with Winston is the volume he has...we also get 1 point per completion and -1 incompletion, 300 yard bonus, so unless he falls off a cliff(which can happen any week with him unless the matchup is right) it all evens out.

 

Yes, the running game is killing the Rams...thats how their offense works with Gurley running well and working off play action, Kyle Allen has a good schedule should throw more than the others, intrigued by Foles, but he's a wildcard without playing much

[Phil Simms 11 127]

Not sure I will drop him for Carr, Rivers, Allen or Brisset. Need to check ROS matchups

Have Jimmy G rostered and in my lineup this week.

[Utilit99 4,099]

Never play Goff on the road.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, rrmcguire said:

So I think I may dump Goff, one he's been playing like hot garbage and 2 his schedule isn't great ROS, my other QB is Winston, if I drop Goff I can pickup

Kyle Allen

Foles

Darnold

Josh Allen

We have -6 per interception, 6 points per TD....all have decent matchups but looking for the best option where I can stream with Winston with his best matchup plays

 

1 hour ago, rrmcguire said:

only thing with Winston is the volume he has...we also get 1 point per completion and -1 incompletion, 300 yard bonus, so unless he falls off a cliff(which can happen any week with him unless the matchup is right) it all evens out.

This scoring system really poses an interesting problem, with those -6 INTs and 1 pt per completion/-1 pt per incompletion.

Winston can clearly be a problem with his multi-INT games, although other than the game he threw 5, he's not all THAT much higher than the rest of the field in interception rates.

Obviously, completion percentage would be a big factor in the expected values of your QBs.

Darnold:  63.2% - For every 100 passes, you get 63.2 points and lose 36.8 points, netting 26.4 points.

K.Allen:  61.5% - net 23.0 pts per 100 passes

J.Allen:  59.9% - net 19.8 pts/100

Winston:  59.7% - net 19.4 pts/100

Passes per game:

Winston:  39.44 (19.4 * 0.3944 = 7.65 pts per game)

Darnold:  34.00 (26.4 * 0.34 = 8.98 pts per game)

K.Allen:  33.43 (23.0 * 0.3343 = 7.69 pts per game)

J.Allen:  31.56 (19.8 *0.3156 = 6.25 pts per game)

TDs per game:

Winston:  1.89 (11.34 pts per game)

K.Allen:  1.43 (8.58 pts per game)

Darnold:  1.17 (7.02 pts per game)

J.Allen:  1.11 (6.66 pts per game)

INTs per game:

Winston:  1.56 (-9.36 pts per game)

Darnold:  1.50 (-9.00 pts per game)

J.Allen:  0.78 (-4.68 pts per game)

K.Allen:  0.71 (-4.26 pts per game)

Total Expected Points Per Game:

K.Allen:  12.01

Winston:  9.63

J.Allen:  8.23

Darnold:  7.00

Then of course you have to figure in the actual passing (and rushing) yardage for each of them, which I can't figure here since you didn't include the scoring for yardage--but I would imagine that Winston leads by a pretty healthy margin in that category--as well as the bonus for 300 yards passing, which Winston gets in half of his games (much more than any other NFL QB).  So Winston, even with all his INTs, is probably still your best bet in most weeks, due to his yardage and TDs, even if his completion percentage and INT rate isn't very good.

If you were to pick someone up, it should probably be Kyle Allen, based on these numbers.

EDIT:  By the way, Goff's expected pts per game by these criteria are 9.45, although he does gain 60-70 more passing yards per game than Darnold and the Allens, so you may not be gaining much by dropping Goff for any one of them (other than maybe a more favorable schedule).

[rrmcguire 36]

Sacks are -1....every 10 rushing yards are 1 point

[AxeElf 787]

8 minutes ago, rrmcguire said:

Sacks are -1

That subtracts the following pts per game from each QB's total expected pts:

K.Allen:  -3.29 (leaving 8.72)

Goff:  -1.78 (7.67)

Winston:  -3.78 (5.85)

J.Allen:  -2.44 (5.79)

Darnold:  3.33 (3.67)

So with the passing yardage and 300+ bonus added, Goff and Winston are probably still your best options (depending on the scoring for those things, of course), but Kyle Allen would still be the one to add if you do.

[RedzoneMonster 102]

I dropped him for Foles. 

[weepaws 2,452]

So you gave up a Qb that is avg 20 plus points a week, and expect for three games as scored over 22 plus points per week, for Foles who playes on a limited offense.

Mmm. 

[rrmcguire 36]

so do I keep Goff and roll with Winston this weekend, nervous about playing against the Saints, it is in Tampa, but I think Kyle Allen could have a solid game for Carolina against Atlanta

[kilroy69 993]

On 11/11/2019 at 1:21 PM, Utilit99 said:

Never play Goff on the road.

This is literally up there with always start stephen davis and never start a land war in Asia. 

[Utilit99 4,099]

3 hours ago, kilroy69 said:

This is literally up there with always start stephen davis and never start a land war in Asia. 

Or if you are Hitler, in Russia during the winter.

[Smileseers 54]

Hitler was a biatch and Stephy was a beast

[jgcrawfish 232]

I was going to say, without all the pseudo-scientific BS of others, my choice would be Kyle Allen.  He's been very steady and uses his legs, so he's got ability to get extra points on the ground.  Darnold is garbage, he's still seeing ghosts.  I would normally say Josh Allen, but he's not running the ball near as much as he did last year so his floor is lower.  He's been very consistent lately with 2 TD per game, but that looks like his cap.  Foles is the wildcard...if good Nick shows up with the WR core he has, he could be very good.  

[weepaws 2,452]

Like Allen vs the Dolphins 

[Byrdman5 104]

I dropped Goff after his horrible game against the niners for Josh Allen. Josh Allen has a few more decent matchups before hes droppable. Goff plays the niners in the fantasy championship... no thanks.. I'm looking to move Kupp as well.

[rrmcguire 36]

You like Josh Allen over Kyle and Foles....my other QB is Winston who has a couple more juicy matchups but still worried about the interceptions 

[weepaws 2,452]

I like Allen over those others listed. 

[Byrdman5 104]

I would go josh allen this week then Winston next week... then you might want to search for another qb.