jerryskids 5,192 Posted November 13, 2019 As per Monmouth University poll... Quote When Pete Buttigieg, the 37-year-old openly gay mayor of the fourth-largest city in Indiana, announced his presidential campaign in April, he was the longest of long shots to win the Democratic nomination. But now Buttigieg is one of the few remaining Democrats with a path to victory, a path that is getting clearer day by day. On Tuesday Monmouth University released a blockbuster new poll showing Buttigieg leading the field in Iowa for the first time. According to Monmouth, 22 percent of likely caucus-goers now list Buttigieg as their top choice, putting him 3 points ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden (19 percent), 4 points ahead of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (18 percent) and 9 points ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders (13 percent). Monmouth previously surveyed the Hawkeye State in August, after Buttigieg’s initial bump but before his recent effort to rebrand himself as a kind of Goldilocks candidate for wavering Dems: less status quo than Biden, more pragmatic than Warren, and a safer bet than either of them to beat President Trump next November. The August poll found Buttigieg at 8 percent — meaning that he’s gained 14 points in Iowa over the last three months. “Buttigieg is emerging as a top pick for a wide variety of Iowa Democrats,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “You really can’t pigeonhole his support to one particular group. He is doing well with voters regardless of education or ideology.” Critics will be quick to dismiss Monmouth as just one poll among many. But there are two reasons they should take it seriously. First, Murray is widely considered one of the best pollsters in the business; according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, Monmouth is one of only six “A+” rated polling outfits currently surveying American public opinion. Second, Monmouth isn’t the only poll showing a Buttigieg surge where it matters most, in key early states. In Iowa, Buttigieg has long been outperforming his national polling average, which is currently hovering around 8 percent. In late September he leapt into double digits; in mid-October he passed Sanders and moved into third place. But in the last two weeks he has picked up momentum in the state. Three high-quality Iowa polls have come out this month: Monmouth, Quinnipiac and New York Times/Siena College. All three show Buttigieg in either first or a statistical tie for second place, and together they have established a clear trend line in the overall Iowa polling average. Since the last Democratic debate, on Oct. 15 — the one where Buttigieg reintroduced himself as a scrappier, more passionate proponent of Midwestern center-left pragmatism, to rave reviews — Warren has fallen by about 2 points overall; Biden has fallen by about 4 points; and Buttigieg has risen by about 6 points. The Hoosier is now within 0.4 points, on average, of overtaking Warren. And Iowa isn’t the only place where Buttigieg is gaining ground. The lone New Hampshire poll released so far this month, by Quinnipiac, shows him at 15 percent in a three-way statistical tie with Warren and Sanders for second place. The likeliest explanation for Buttigieg’s ascent is that he’s benefiting from widespread anxiety among rank-and-file Democrats about the general election prospects of Warren (too far left) and Biden (not sharp enough) — an anxiety that is more pronounced in places like Iowa and New Hampshire, where voters are currently paying much closer attention than their counterparts elsewhere. That may be why Monmouth’s new Iowa poll found that Buttigieg boasts the best favorability rating in the field (73 percent favorable versus 10 percent unfavorable), whereas net favorability ratings (favorability minus unfavorability) for Biden and Warren have declined since August by 13 points and 16 points, respectively. Meanwhile, Buttigieg is alone among the alternatives to Warren, Biden and Sanders in having the money and organization to actually compete going forward. After two stellar fundraising quarters, the South Bend mayor entered the homestretch with more cash on hand ($23.4 million) than anyone except Warren ($25.7 million) and Sanders ($33.7 million). For comparison, Biden had only $9 million in the bank at the end of Q3. Buttigieg also boasts more field offices in Iowa than anyone else (and the same is true in New Hampshire). Given all this, it’s increasingly possible to see how Buttigieg could win the nomination. A flush, resurgent Sanders, fresh off securing the endorsement of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and rallying 25,000 supporters in Queens, continues to split the left-wing vote with Warren. Warren continues to take incoming fire. Biden’s poll numbers continue to sag, especially in the early states. And Buttigieg peaks at just the right moment, surprising everyone on caucus day with a first- or second-place finish. Biden and Sanders limp into New Hampshire, where Buttigieg repeats the feat. And suddenly, after another poor showing from Biden in South Carolina, his firewall state, it’s a two-person race: Warren the progressive champion versus Buttigieg the Rust Belt pragmatist. Perhaps Sanders sticks around, siphoning votes from Warren. And state by state, Buttigieg eventually prevails. Earlier this month Buttigieg made waves with a suggestion — which he later partially retracted to avoid sounding presumptuous — that the 2020 Democratic primary contest was “getting to be a two-way” race between him and Warren. “It’s early to say,” he told Showtime’s “The Circus.” But “a world where we’re getting somewhere is a world where it’s coming down to the two of us.” This has long been Buttigieg’s plan. It won’t necessarily come to fruition; he’s yet to absorb the kind of frontrunner attacks that have tarnished Biden and Warren. But for now, at least, the plan seems to be working. https://news.yahoo.com/new-poll-shows-buttigieg-in-the-lead-in-iowa-can-he-win-it-all-210222797.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=1_04 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bostonlager 2,463 Posted November 13, 2019 Big f@g population there, so no surprise. He will fade once primary season hits the southern states. Colored folk don't like the homos. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,631 Posted November 13, 2019 There goes the black vote. Wait, what? Thats right. Blacks aren't voting for a fanook. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KSB2424 3,083 Posted November 13, 2019 Love it. I mean, I probably disagree with him on 75% of the issues but at least he's not a career politician empty suit or a weirdo like Warren. Mayor Pete, Tulsi and YangGang are at least fresh faces who seem to actually care and have conviction. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Honcho 4,023 Posted November 13, 2019 Not a surprise, Mayor Pete is known for 'coming from behind' 1 1 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthernVike 2,080 Posted November 13, 2019 He has hawkeye's vote. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jerryskids 5,192 Posted November 13, 2019 19 minutes ago, KSB2424 said: Love it. I mean, I probably disagree with him on 75% of the issues but at least he's not a career politician empty suit or a weirdo like Warren. Mayor Pete, Tulsi and YangGang are at least fresh faces who seem to actually care and have conviction. That's kinda how I feel. If the Dems roll out one of the other old guard candidates, IMO they are toast. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IGotWorms 3,310 Posted November 14, 2019 Iowa is his kind of place. Go around meeting the voters one on one and in small group settings, plays to his strengths. Plus he’s from neighboring Indiana or I think it’s maybe neighboring and I’m not going to bother to check. Biden should play well there too, I’d say it’s concerning for him if he doesn’t win Iowa. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lickin_starfish 1,480 Posted November 14, 2019 We know at least one faag who will vote for him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kutulu 1,545 Posted November 14, 2019 He's been up and down on all kinds of poles 1 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye21 1,853 Posted November 14, 2019 6 hours ago, NorthernVike said: He has hawkeye's vote. Something funny? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JustinCharge 2,397 Posted November 14, 2019 Q: When was the last time a democrat president did not have one of his veeps win a future party nomination? Al Gore won in 2000 Walter Mondale won in 1984 LBJ won in 1964 Truman won in 1948 The answer is: Alben W. Barkley. Truman's veep. He tried to run in 1952 but failed. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bostonlager 2,463 Posted November 14, 2019 11 hours ago, lickin_starfish said: We know at least one faag who will vote for him. He is not a liberal or a conservative. He's a straight down the middle f@ggot that just happens to side with the left side of every single argument. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RLLD 3,455 Posted November 14, 2019 Haven't paid much attention to him, will start now... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vince44 202 Posted November 17, 2019 Hope he is able to win in Iowa. Would be great if he can pick up steam. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,631 Posted November 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Vince44 said: Hope he is able to win in Iowa. Would be great if he can pick up steam. Why? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kilroy69 994 Posted November 17, 2019 It's funny. Just recently you could not win if you did not get the black vote. Yet no one wants to talk about the fact no black people are gonna vote for a white gay guy. When they do they just try their best to pretend the fact black people are not comfortable with gays is a myth or stereotype Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kilroy69 994 Posted November 17, 2019 45 minutes ago, Vince44 said: Hope he is able to win in Iowa. Would be great if he can pick up steam. Steam is a hitchiker Vince knows that likes to be beat with a rubber hose Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bostonlager 2,463 Posted November 17, 2019 5 hours ago, kilroy69 said: It's funny. Just recently you could not win if you did not get the black vote. Yet no one wants to talk about the fact no black people are gonna vote for a white gay guy. When they do they just try their best to pretend the fact black people are not comfortable with gays is a myth or stereotype Some sort of South Carolina official came out last week and told a news outlet straight up he won’t get the black vote in the south. I will see if I can find the article to fill in the details I’m leaving out. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bostonlager 2,463 Posted November 17, 2019 5 hours ago, kilroy69 said: It's funny. Just recently you could not win if you did not get the black vote. Yet no one wants to talk about the fact no black people are gonna vote for a white gay guy. When they do they just try their best to pretend the fact black people are not comfortable with gays is a myth or stereotype http://a.msn.com/09/en-us/AAJNcXa?ocid=se Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IGotWorms 3,310 Posted November 17, 2019 9 hours ago, kilroy69 said: It's funny. Just recently you could not win if you did not get the black vote. Yet no one wants to talk about the fact no black people are gonna vote for a white gay guy. When they do they just try their best to pretend the fact black people are not comfortable with gays is a myth or stereotype Democrats I know have acknowledged this issue, so I’m not sure what your point b of reference is here. It’s certainly a big hurdle for him winning the nomination. Although this mostly matters in the south and there are not so many delegates there that it couldn’t be overcome. Bernie lost because Clinton cleaned up in the south but Clinton also showed strongly in most other regions whereas joe Biden, for example, may not. When it comes to the general election, I guess the hope would be Buttigieg has a running mate that can get black folks to turn out, or particularly strong demonstrations of support from folks like Obama, Booker and Patrick might do the trick. But it certainly could be an issue. Workout high turnout among traditional democrat voting blocs they certainly won’t win. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,631 Posted November 17, 2019 Just now, IGotWorms said: Democrats I know have acknowledged this issue, so I’m not sure what your point b of reference is here. It’s certainly a big hurdle for him winning the nomination. Although this mostly matters in the south and there are not so many delegates there that it couldn’t be overcome. Bernie lost because Clinton cleaned up in the south but Clinton also showed strongly in most other regions whereas joe Biden, for example, may not. When it comes to the general election, I guess the hope would be Buttigieg has a running mate that can get black folks to turn out, or particularly strong demonstrations of support from folks like Obama, Booker and Patrick might do the trick. But it certainly could be an issue. Workout high turnout among traditional democrat voting blocs they certainly won’t win. That fat dummy from Georgia? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IGotWorms 3,310 Posted November 17, 2019 Just now, Hardcore troubadour said: That fat dummy from Georgia? Yeah her too. I don’t think she’s a dummy but I honestly haven’t seen enough of her to fully assess Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lickin_starfish 1,480 Posted November 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, IGotWorms said: Yeah her too. I don’t think she’s a dummy but I honestly haven’t seen enough of her to fully assess I think she starred as Gloria in the Madagascar movie. http://images4.fanpop.com/image/photos/23800000/Gloria-madagascar-23836372-227-222.jpg Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,631 Posted November 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, lickin_starfish said: I think she starred as Gloria in the Madagascar movie. http://images4.fanpop.com/image/photos/23800000/Gloria-madagascar-23836372-227-222.jpg She was great in The Blind Side Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kilroy69 994 Posted November 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: She was great in The Blind Side You guys talking about Shrek? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,380 Posted November 17, 2019 All he's had to do was STFU these past couple of months. That's the best strategy for the Dems. Maybe people won't realize how insane they are. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
