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I am starting Ryan and my opponent is starting Jones and Ridley. What to do?

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If you can find another top 10 QB facing a bottom 5 pass defense, go for it.  Otherwise, Ryan.

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So, help me out...what exactly are you asking?  Are you asking the "bored" if you should bench Ryan?  Please explain to us how that helps?  If Matt, in your starting lineup, throws 4 TD passes and ALL of them go to Julio and Calvin, then you get 24 pts and he gets 24 pts (or 16 for you and 24 for him in 4 pt passing TD league).  If you bench Ryan, and were able to get say Darnold, and he throws 2 TD passes, then it seems to me that you would get either 8 or 12 points, and Matt Ryan would have thrown for 4 TD passes on your bench and still generated 24 points for your opponent.  How does this help you?

Cancel out theory is a fallacy...play the guys that you believe will get you the most points.  You cannot affect the outcome of your opponent by making moves on YOUR roster.  

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I don’t know why you wouldn’t still stay with Ryan. 

 

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3 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

🍿

c'mon, is the thread that much 🎣 that I'm falling for?  

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1 hour ago, FFer said:

Would you get another QB or stay the course?  

Play the guy you think is going to score the most points at that position.

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I've changed my mind, he should definitely bench Ryan so Julio and Calvin don't get a chance to score.  :pointstosky:

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It is what it is, play the best QB you can and that's likely Ryan

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10 hours ago, jgcrawfish said:

I've changed my mind, he should definitely bench Ryan so Julio and Calvin don't get a chance to score.  :pointstosky:

yep - if he's not playing - he can't throw TD's.

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Please let us know, because if you're planning on benching Ryan, I'm going to start Schaub.

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It depends on the rest of your rosters.  If you think you're at a disadvantage in the game them you don't want your points to correlate to his.  In other words, if you feel like you're the underdog, and you have a QB who's possible range of points has significant overlap with Ryan, then you can bench Ryan for that guy and hope Atlanta lays an egg.

You don't have to call it a cancel out theory because every mook will come in and make the same dumb comments, but it's obvious Ryan, Julio, and Ridley's points have correlation to one another.  

The problem with cancel out theory deniers is that they think you can predict what players will score ahead of time.  That's the real fallacy.  You can really only put them on a range.  You might say that Ryan's range is between 12 and 28 points with the most likely being about 18.  If he scores 12, Julio and Ridley likely will also be at the bottom of their ranges as well.  Therefore, if you think you're going to lose the game, you'd be better off benching Ryan for someone who may have a range of 10-22 with a most likely score of 16 and hope that Ryan is on the low end of his range and the backup is on the high end.  Yes in a vacuum, obviously, you would start Ryan given those two ranges, but you have more information than that.

Conversely, if you think you have an advantage when comparing the rest of your rosters, you want to take the lower variance play and take advantage of the correlation.

When pff.com explains this concept to people in 5 years, maybe people will stop acting like cavemen and understand it better.

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If both of them have a big day, then Ryan will have had a big day as well. If Ryan has a big day, it doesn't necessarily mean both of them will have a big day. Lay it!

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11 minutes ago, LaChup said:

If both of them have a big day, then Ryan will have had a big day as well. If Ryan has a big day, it doesn't necessarily mean both of them will have a big day. Lay it!

Unless they find success with that lateral back to Jones throw the bomb to Ridley play.  They could also work in the variation where they lateral back to Ridley and throw the bomb to Jones.

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True, but what if Ryan throws it to himself, fumbles it, recovers it, then throws it to himself for a 65 yard bomb? Lights out baby!

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So allow me to put words in his mouth so to speak. What he is saying is it blows when your QB is throwing tds to your opponents WR. Kind of like being with a chick who just gave your friend head.

Ok...it's not like that at all. Just saying...

Anyway he's trying to avoid watching the game stressed out and it would be easier if he watched another QB. That only works if you have another QB.

Play Ryan.

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Agree with everyone who says starting Ryan is the right move, but it's kind of funny that after Ryan left the game, Schaub came in and threw a TD to Ridley.

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7 hours ago, zftcg said:

Agree with everyone who says starting Ryan is the right move, but it's kind of funny that after Ryan left the game, Schaub came in and threw a TD to Ridley.

I saw that and instantly thought of this thread.  Strange game we play...

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8 minutes ago, jgcrawfish said:

I saw that and instantly thought of this thread.  Strange game we play...

Years ago I had a fantasy matchup with my Romo vs. his Miles Austin. I was out of pocket all afternoon, so when I checked the box score I couldn’t figure out how Austin had three TD catches while Romo had only thrown for two. Turned out Romo briefly left the game with an injury and his replacement (Kitna?) came in and threw one

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On 11/22/2019 at 10:00 AM, nobody said:

It depends on the rest of your rosters.  If you think you're at a disadvantage in the game them you don't want your points to correlate to his.  In other words, if you feel like you're the underdog, and you have a QB who's possible range of points has significant overlap with Ryan, then you can bench Ryan for that guy and hope Atlanta lays an egg.

You don't have to call it a cancel out theory because every mook will come in and make the same dumb comments, but it's obvious Ryan, Julio, and Ridley's points have correlation to one another.  

The problem with cancel out theory deniers is that they think you can predict what players will score ahead of time.  That's the real fallacy.  You can really only put them on a range.  You might say that Ryan's range is between 12 and 28 points with the most likely being about 18.  If he scores 12, Julio and Ridley likely will also be at the bottom of their ranges as well.  Therefore, if you think you're going to lose the game, you'd be better off benching Ryan for someone who may have a range of 10-22 with a most likely score of 16 and hope that Ryan is on the low end of his range and the backup is on the high end.  Yes in a vacuum, obviously, you would start Ryan given those two ranges, but you have more information than that.

Conversely, if you think you have an advantage when comparing the rest of your rosters, you want to take the lower variance play and take advantage of the correlation.

When pff.com explains this concept to people in 5 years, maybe people will stop acting like cavemen and understand it better.

The problem with this approach is that you don't know what the rest of your roster is going to do. Even if you think you're at an advantage or disadvantage compared to your opponent's roster, you and your opponent have 7, 8, 9 other guys that could also go off or lay an egg. 

The only time I would use this theory is if both and your opponent had players going in the Monday night game (or Sunday night if neither of you has guys going on Monday). At that point, you already know the score of your game. If you're leading, you can play it safe and start the guy that correlates to his guy. If you're behind, you might want to go for broke and start the other guy. Before the games start, I'm starting the guy I think will get me the most points. There are just too many variables with the rest of you and your opponents rosters to use this theory before the games have kicked off.

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