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snatchit

Maybe it might make sense, to draft Lamar Jackson with the 1st pick in the draft next year ?

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Just now, Utilit99 said:

Yeah. Exactly when the defenses figure him out.

ya that worked against RG3... but he doesnt throw like Lamar

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6 minutes ago, snatchit said:

ya that worked against RG3... but he doesnt throw like Lamar

It's working against Mahomes. Little by little.  There is no such thing as an unstoppable being in football. 

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39 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

Yeah. Exactly when the defenses figure him out.

You mean like how defenses have figured out saquon and Kamara this year?

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Just now, Jarvis Basnight said:

You mean like how defenses have figured out saquon and Kamara this year?

Yep. 

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It really amazes me how people can learn the exact wrong lessons from things.

  • 2017: Carson Wentz is a late-round QB who emerges as the QB1 for most of the season. If he hadn't torn his ACL, he would almost certainly have been getting buzz as the overall No. 1 the following year
  • 2018: Patrick Mahomes is a late-round QB who emerges as the QB1. Lost of people push to take him as the overall No. 1 the following season.
  • 2019: Lamar Jackson is a late-round QB who emerges as the QB1. Lost of people push to take him as the overall No. 1 the following season.

If your takeaway from the past few years is that you should take Jackson No. 1, I don't know what to tell you.

For the record, it's not because the league will figure him out, although they might, or because his style of play will get him injured, although that might happen, too. It's partly because of regression and partly because of opportunity cost. Regression because he basically has to perform at the exact same level to justify that draft price. Opportunity cost because your chances of getting a quality QB late in the draft are way better than snagging an RB1.

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44 minutes ago, zftcg said:

It really amazes me how people can learn the exact wrong lessons from things.

  • 2017: Carson Wentz is a late-round QB who emerges as the QB1 for most of the season. If he hadn't torn his ACL, he would almost certainly have been getting buzz as the overall No. 1 the following year
  • 2018: Patrick Mahomes is a late-round QB who emerges as the QB1. Lost of people push to take him as the overall No. 1 the following season.
  • 2019: Lamar Jackson is a late-round QB who emerges as the QB1. Lost of people push to take him as the overall No. 1 the following season.

If your takeaway from the past few years is that you should take Jackson No. 1, I don't know what to tell you.

For the record, it's not because the league will figure him out, although they might, or because his style of play will get him injured, although that might happen, too. It's partly because of regression and partly because of opportunity cost. Regression because he basically has to perform at the exact same level to justify that draft price. Opportunity cost because your chances of getting a quality QB late in the draft are way better than snagging an RB1.

Well done.

In 2018, in my 2 QB league, strictly because I needed a bye week fill-in for my other QBs, & because there was almost no one left, I grabbed Mr. Mahomes. (Pure Luck)

I won the league. Guess who the owner with the number 1 pick for 2019 chose 1st ?

Although, to his credit, he's still going to make the playoffs.

Your post also reminds me of 2005.  That's the first year I played fantasy football. Yahoo 10 team standard scoring league.

I had the first pick, and because he threw 49 TDs ? In 2004, I chose Peyton Manning. I think he ended 2005 with 26  :)

 

 

 

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By the way, I had Wentz in 2017 and Mahomes last year. I correctly identified Jackson as a breakout candidate this year, but took Wentz instead, and then passed on another opportunity to take him a few rounds later. D'oh!

I've had even better luck with breakout TEs: Ertz in 2017, Kittle last year, Andrews/Waller this year. You won't always get it right (I took Trey Burton last year, too), but if you do you'll be in a much better position after getting so much value with such little draft capital.

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3 hours ago, snatchit said:

He is a # 1 RB and QB

Noooooooo.  

I knew it was going to happen. 

Nooooo.  

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5 hours ago, Showboat said:

The lesson is to not chase last year's star.......

Like McCaffrey who will most likely get figured out next year?

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No don’t take him number one or first round or early.  

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5 hours ago, Jarvis Basnight said:

Like McCaffrey who will most likely get figured out next year?

More often than not, the sure fire consensus top picks (usually based on previous performance) fall short (for example Barkley and Kamara this year - CMC may have been in the discussion but was more of a dark horse).  Leagues are often won by getting ahead of the curve and the selecting next break-out player late rather than the last break-out player early.  Some people call that skill, others call it luck..... 

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30 minutes ago, Showboat said:

More often than not, the sure fire consensus top picks (usually based on previous performance) fall short (for example Barkley and Kamara this year - CMC may have been in the discussion but was more of a dark horse).  Leagues are often won by getting ahead of the curve and the selecting next break-out player late rather than the last break-out player early.  Some people call that skill, others call it luck..... 

I haven't studied this scientifically or anything, but my guess is that what wins you fantasy championships is some combination of:

  • Not screwing up your first two picks. If you took Lev Bell or Zeke this year, it hasn't killed you even if they have underperformed somewhat. But if you took Barkley or Antonio Brown you may be in a real hole
  • Hitting on late-round sleepers/WW adds. Guys like Lamar, Dalvin Cook, Godwin, Chark, Hooper (until he got hurt), Andrews
  • Having the guy who goes nuclear in the playoffs. Henry last year, Gurley in 2017, Bell in 2014, Jamal Charles in 2013, Billy Volek back in the day. This is the most important element, generally impossible to predict, and almost entirely a function of luck. Also, with guys like Henry, he probably put a few teams so far behind the 8-ball that they were already out of it by the time he busted out. But if you capture that lightning in a bottle you will very likely take home the title.

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2 hours ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

Defenses will adjust.  My guess is every defensive coordinator will be watching films on games M. Vick struggled.

I still don't believe Jackson will survive playing this style in the NFL.  He took some pretty awkward hits even last night in a game he dominated.  Only gonna take one of those to rob him of the extraordinary top gear that he has, and then he's an average QB. 

Vick had numerous seasons shortened or ruined by injuries.  Ditto Randal Cunningham.  RGIII didn't even make it through 2 seasons before having his career destroyed by a knee injury- reduced mobility making him a very ordinary player.  Those are probably the only players in NFL history comparable to Jackson.  Maybe he can defy the odds, but not likely. 

Enjoy the show that Jackson is putting on right now.

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2 hours ago, zftcg said:

I haven't studied this scientifically or anything, but my guess is that what wins you fantasy championships is some combination of:

  • Not screwing up your first two picks. If you took Lev Bell or Zeke this year, it hasn't killed you even if they have underperformed somewhat. But if you took Barkley or Antonio Brown you may be in a real hole
  • Hitting on late-round sleepers/WW adds. Guys like Lamar, Dalvin Cook, Godwin, Chark, Hooper (until he got hurt), Andrews
  • Having the guy who goes nuclear in the playoffs. Henry last year, Gurley in 2017, Bell in 2014, Jamal Charles in 2013, Billy Volek back in the day. This is the most important element, generally impossible to predict, and almost entirely a function of luck. Also, with guys like Henry, he probably put a few teams so far behind the 8-ball that they were already out of it by the time he busted out. But if you capture that lightning in a bottle you will very likely take home the title.

Was Dalvin Cook a late round sleeper/WW add in your league?

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8 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

Was Dalvin Cook a late round sleeper/WW add in your league?

Sorry, should have said something more like "Guys who outperform their value". Getting picked in the second round and delivering Top 3 value is huge.

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Barring injury, I don't see much debate about the 1st overall pick next season, it's going to be Christian McCaffrey in most leagues.

I don't see any fantasy media outlets suggesting anyone else.

As for myself, I'm only in dynasty leagues but I may play in my old redraft.

I won't say never, but I don't see myself taking a QB in the first round again. I do much better loading up on RBs and WRs in the early rounds and taking two lower end QB1s in the mid rounds. It's more about having good depth than having the one stud.

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Agreed. 

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If you take a Qb in the first round , he better be the heads nd shoulder number one ff Qb. 

When we looked that up before this season, I think the last time that had happen was ten seasons ago, and that was Brees. 

Winston is avg 25 points per game, matching Mahomes. 

So no way is a Qb worthy of a first round or even a early round pick. 

Ive actually stream the Qb postion last two seasons, like def and kickers and te postion. 

I just won my division going I to the playoffs. 

Three weeks ago I was able to land Ryan, and my I’ve kept him so far.  

Rb and Wr depth is still the way to go, over all, I’m sure some took a Qb first round and have won, but it’s not over all  

 

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3 hours ago, zftcg said:

Sorry, should have said something more like "Guys who outperform their value". Getting picked in the second round and delivering Top 3 value is huge.

Everyone was afraid of injury. That guy is truly living up to his hype this year.

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Some guys just manage to dodge the injury bug, even through major exposure. Lamar and CMac are prime examples.

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He will have a classic letdown season next year after being taken rnd1. It’s so easy to see coming.

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Surprisingly enough, on his "Living the Stream" podcast this week, JJ Zachariason, who literally wrote the book on drafting a QB late, said Lamar might be the one QB who could justify an early-round pick, just because his running gives him such a strong floor. I still disagree -- I think the running also raises his injury risk, which negates a big chunk of that floor -- but was really surprised to hear him saying that.

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3 hours ago, zftcg said:

Surprisingly enough, on his "Living the Stream" podcast this week, JJ Zachariason, who literally wrote the book on drafting a QB late, said Lamar might be the one QB who could justify an early-round pick, just because his running gives him such a strong floor. I still disagree -- I think the running also raises his injury risk, which negates a big chunk of that floor -- but was really surprised to hear him saying that.

Even with the running stats, he’s avg the same per game as Mahomes did last season without the running.  

About five points per game avg better then the next Qb, just like Mahomes last season.  

Just no way I can ever say it’s a good move taking a Qb in the first round, or early, I just don’t see them repeating. 

I do think during this past off season when there was some great talk about taking Mahomes in the first round, I looked it up and found that the last time their was a Qb that was number one in ff two seasons in a roll was Bress like 8 - 10 years ago. 

 

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He has won games for me this year.  He gets Buf in week 14 and I’ll be knocked out of the playoffs in round 1.  If I were considering him as a first round pick next year, and I’m not at the moment, that will leave a bad enough taste in my mouth to squash it.

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4 hours ago, JagFan said:

He has won games for me this year.  He gets Buf in week 14 and I’ll be knocked out of the playoffs in round 1.  If I were considering him as a first round pick next year, and I’m not at the moment, that will leave a bad enough taste in my mouth to squash it.

You really think Buffalo is such a bad matchup? Or are you just being fatalistic?

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3 hours ago, zftcg said:

You really think Buffalo is such a bad matchup? Or are you just being fatalistic?

Lamar has struggled, if you can call it that, against the only decent defense he’s faced this year, Pit.  And before anyone says NE, go look at their schedule before facing Lamar.  I think he struggles this week against SF and then against Buf.  I hope I’m wrong.

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I wouldn’t. You want to find the mid to late qb that is mahomes or Lamar not draft them at their peak value

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On 11/26/2019 at 5:19 PM, weepaws said:

If you take a Qb in the first round , he better be the heads nd shoulder number one ff Qb. 

When we looked that up before this season, I think the last time that had happen was ten seasons ago, and that was Brees. 

Winston is avg 25 points per game, matching Mahomes. 

So no way is a Qb worthy of a first round or even a early round pick. 

Ive actually stream the Qb postion last two seasons, like def and kickers and te postion. 

I just won my division going I to the playoffs. 

Three weeks ago I was able to land Ryan, and my I’ve kept him so far.  

Rb and Wr depth is still the way to go, over all, I’m sure some took a Qb first round and have won, but it’s not over all  

 

I completely agree. I used to go after the top QB, like Mahomes, in the early rounds. I started waiting and drafting two QBs like Dak, and Stafford, or Matt Ryan in the mid to later rounds. Play the match ups and get similar results as a top 2 or 3 QB. Plus those they're all guys capable of putting up top 5 numbers on their own. I've had much better results doing that.

The only time I won a championship because of having a super year with a QB was with Peyton that huge season he had with the Broncos.

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17 hours ago, JagFan said:

Lamar has struggled, if you can call it that, against the only decent defense he’s faced this year, Pit.  And before anyone says NE, go look at their schedule before facing Lamar.  I think he struggles this week against SF and then against Buf.  I hope I’m wrong.

Before you worry about that take a look at the QBs Buf has faced. It’s similar to how NE was dominating but then we realized it’s because they played no one. 

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1 hour ago, skinsrule05 said:

Before you worry about that take a look at the QBs Buf has faced. It’s similar to how NE was dominating but then we realized it’s because they played no one. 

Thanks for the heads up.  Will do.

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