Looking Ahead To Redrafts 2020: First Four Rounds

[Fumbleweed 422]

This is something I like to post on site in early January and then update it every few weeks for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2020 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices. QBs are also valued a little higher by me based on some of the scoring systems I play being QB-friendly. 

Round One:

1. Christian McCaffrey
2. Ezekiel Elliott
3. Saquon Barkley
4. Derrick Henry
5. Dalvin Cook
6. Aaron Jones 
7. Nick Chubb
8. Michael Thomas
9. Alvin Kamara
10. Joe Mixon
11. Tyreek Hill
12. Chris Carson

Round Two:

13. DeAndre Hopkins
14. Julio Jones
15. Lamar Jackson
16. Josh Jacobs
17. Austin Ekeler
18. Leonard Fournette
19. Mike Evans
20. Kenyan Drake 
21. Davante Adams
22. Melvin Gordon
23. Kenny Golladay 
24. Patrick Mahomes

Round Three:

25. Mark Ingram
26. Travis Kelce
27. Chris Godwin
28. Marlon Mack
29. A.J. Brown
30. George Kittle
31. Amari Cooper
32. Todd Gurley
33. Keenan Allen
34. Miles Sanders
35. Darren Waller
36. Cooper Kupp

Round Four:

37. Le’Veon Bell
38. James Conner
39. Stefon Diggs
40. David Montgomery 
41. DeShaun Watson
42. DeVante Parker
43. Phillip Lindsay
44. Courtland Sutton
45. Mark Andrews
46. Jameis Winston 

47. Raheem Mostert

48. Zach Ertz

Thoughts??

[Byrdman5 104]

Good list

I think Hopkins and Julio should be late first rounders, I would probably take out Mixon and Tyreek. Godwin seems low after his breakout season. You seem pretty high on TE, Waller 3rd seems pretty high for a guy who didn’t catch many TD’s. I mean there are a lot of decent TE’s so I don’t see Waller going in the 3rd. Hooper, Engram, and Hunter to name a few. Not a fan of Montgomery, I hate the offense he is in.

I think Singletary, Kerryon, and Juju might be 4th rounders. I’m eyeing Juju next year. He had a brutal opening schedule and no Ben but still put up decent numbers the first 5 weeks.

Also hope AJ Brown doesn’t go that high, but I think a lot of ppl are going to target him next year.

 

[AxeElf 787]

I'd be glad to land a top 10 PPR WR like Julian Edelman in the 5th.

[weepaws 2,452]

Four to many qbs.  

Like Kamera at nine, I’m going to target him much higher, he’ll rebound.  

Dont like that Packers offense, and I think we see another season in which Rodgers takes another step back, I don’t see 16 total tds for Jones next season, he’s to high. 

Cooper and Gallup tied with a non ppr avg of 10.5 ff points per game, next season Gallup over takes him, Cooped is way to high. 

[loonecho 19]

Kamara too high. Maybe early second round. Mike Evans is way too high. He should barely even be in the top 48 with his year after year inconsistency and now Godwin on the same team. At very least, Evans and Godwin should swap spots.

[AxeElf 787]

57 minutes ago, loonecho said:

Kamara too high. Maybe early second round. Mike Evans is way too high. He should barely even be in the top 48 with his year after year inconsistency and now Godwin on the same team. At very least, Evans and Godwin should swap spots.

I'm ok with drafting the #6 PPR WR (on a ppg basis) in the middle of the 2nd round.

But yeah, Godwin should be right up there with him.

[sderk 1,040]

I think Parker has broken out and I will target him next season. I had Carson this year and loved it but may pass next year with Penny having shown himself off well. 

Singletary will be a top 4 round RB in my opinion. Top 2 or 3 probably. But you mentioned non PPR. I'm mostly looking at things in PPR mode.

[weepaws 2,452]

From what I’ve been reading, Penny might not be ready to even start the next season. 

[weepaws 2,452]

Five to many tes. 

[DocNiner 44]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

Five to many tes. 

I agree, too many TE's. Of course your league scoring ssystem and.league roster.setup could play in to it. But as far as TE's are concerned I'd stay with KELCE, KITTLE, and ERTZ. (possibly). Goedert.could hinder production next year.

[cmh6476 748]

Round 2 rbs suck

[Super Cubs 132]

Fournette seems a little low

Montgomery, AJ Brown, Drake seems kinda high

[loonecho 19]

Today's game is a good example of why Kamara should not be drafted in the same round as Dalvin Cook. Maybe 2 rounds later.

[weepaws 2,452]

10 hours ago, loonecho said:

Today's game is a good example of why Kamara should not be drafted in the same round as Dalvin Cook. Maybe 2 rounds later.

I hope there are 13 owners in my non ppr league that see it the same as you.  

 

[eagles115 23]

With Hill and Murray there I pass on kamara til probably the 4th round 

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

On 1/3/2020 at 11:57 PM, AxeElf said:

I'd be glad to land a top 10 PPR WR like Julian Edelman in the 5th.

Without Tom ? 

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Without Tom ? 

The OP assumes "minimal team changes."  Losing Tom would be a major team change.

[weepaws 2,452]

10 hours ago, eagles115 said:

With Hill and Murray there I pass on kamara til probably the 4th round 

Foolish talk. 

[eagles115 23]

explain how you think he deserves to go any higher? 

2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Foolish talk. 

 

[weepaws 2,452]

15 minutes ago, eagles115 said:

explain how you think he deserves to go any higher? 

 

Once again foolish talk. 

Keep it coming.  

He was without question the number one bust this past season, but he did in non ppr still avg 12 ff points per game, and that was still 7th best per game avg.  

i think he’s worthy of a much higher draft pick then the fourth round, how about you? 

[eagles115 23]

Not at all. He was ranked 12th in running backs. If i add in wr hes ranked around 30th overall. With the emergence of Hill, Murray seeming to steal a lot of time from Kamara he isnt worth that high first rd pick or even back end of the first. 

But hey if you wanna be in my league and take him around the first be my guest, be like stealing candy from a baby.

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Once again foolish talk. 

Keep it coming.  

He was without question the number one bust this past season, but he did in non ppr still avg 12 ff points per game, and that was still 7th best per game avg.  

i think he’s worthy of a much higher draft pick then the fourth round, how about you? 

 

[Fumbleweed 422]

5 hours ago, eagles115 said:

explain how you think he deserves to go any higher? 

 

To have this discussion, you have to say which RBs you would rank above him. Saying someone is too high or too low is mostly just noise. 

[weepaws 2,452]

7 hours ago, eagles115 said:

Not at all. He was ranked 12th in running backs. If i add in wr hes ranked around 30th overall. With the emergence of Hill, Murray seeming to steal a lot of time from Kamara he isnt worth that high first rd pick or even back end of the first. 

But hey if you wanna be in my league and take him around the first be my guest, be like stealing candy from a baby.

 

Nope his 12 points per game non ppr avg would rank him 7th tied with some.  

Mccaferry one with 22 per game, just amazing, and that’s in non ppr

Henry 18, D Cook at 17  

Two at 16  

Four tied at 14 and three tied at 13, then comes his 12. 

So at 12 points per game, that would make him 12 per game avg non ppr. 

Hey thanks, always appreciate your insite. 

[eagles115 23]

16 hours ago, weepaws said:

Nope his 12 points per game non ppr avg would rank him 7th tied with some.  

Mccaferry one with 22 per game, just amazing, and that’s in non ppr

Henry 18, D Cook at 17  

Two at 16  

Four tied at 14 and three tied at 13, then comes his 12. 

So at 12 points per game, that would make him 12 per game avg non ppr. 

Hey thanks, always appreciate your insite. 

LOL. Thanks for trying. Hes ranked 12th in my league. 

Thanks for trying though, let me know if a spot opens in your league. Be one easy ride to a championship for me

[Canadianfan 76]

On 1/4/2020 at 12:12 AM, weepaws said:

Four to many qbs.  

Like Kamera at nine, I’m going to target him much higher, he’ll rebound.  

Dont like that Packers offense, and I think we see another season in which Rodgers takes another step back, I don’t see 16 total tds for Jones next season, he’s to high. 

Cooper and Gallup tied with a non ppr avg of 10.5 ff points per game, next season Gallup over takes him, Cooped is way to high. 

of course you don't see Jones repeating.  

[weepaws 2,452]

On 1/6/2020 at 2:27 AM, eagles115 said:

With Hill and Murray there I pass on kamara til probably the 4th round 

Ok so in your league Kamara was ranked 12, so that’s a rb1. 

Now you said to you his value would be probably the 4th round. 

Now you did see that the op did it’s a non ppr right?

so your saying that a rb1 in your league isn’t worthy of being drafted in a non ppr for at least the first 36 or close to that  amount of picks before him  

Name the 36 players you would take in your non ppr league before taking a rb1 like Kamara. 

Thanks for the reply?  

[weepaws 2,452]

1 hour ago, Canadianfan said:

of course you don't see Jones repeating.  

No way he scores 16 total tds next season. 

Do you think he scores atleast 16 total tds next season?  

Thank I always appreciate your insite. 

[weepaws 2,452]

3 hours ago, eagles115 said:

LOL. Thanks for trying. Hes ranked 12th in my league. 

Thanks for trying though, let me know if a spot opens in your league. Be one easy ride to a championship for me

Ok I’ll let you know, if one does open up, can you make it to the draft , it’s held in South Lake Tahoe, and can you come up with the buy in? 

If so I think that would be great, I’ll truly let you know if we have a spot.  

Thanks. 

[Ray_T 587]

On 1/3/2020 at 10:12 PM, weepaws said:

Four to many qbs.

I agree.  in  a normal league, there are likely only 2 QB's that should be in the top 3 or 4 rounds.

Mahomes

and Jackson

 

Winston had great numbers, but when you look at the # of INT's there is a legitimate chance he could be in a different offense or even losing his starting job.

I know someone will give him a shot just because the yardage is huge but there is a lot of risk with him.   Because of this, he should be downgraded.

at this point I have no further comment until I look at the list in more detail.

[AxeElf 787]

27 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Winston had great numbers, but when you look at the # of INT's there is a legitimate chance he could be in a different offense or even losing his starting job.

I know someone will give him a shot just because the yardage is huge but there is a lot of risk with him.   Because of this, he should be downgraded.

If you played on RTSports, where the scoring system for QBs is 1 pt per 20 yards passing (not 1 per 25) and only -1 per INT (not -2), Winston was particularly valuable.

[weepaws 2,452]

53 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I agree.  in  a normal league, there are likely only 2 QB's that should be in the top 3 or 4 rounds.

Mahomes

and Jackson

 

Winston had great numbers, but when you look at the # of INT's there is a legitimate chance he could be in a different offense or even losing his starting job.

I know someone will give him a shot just because the yardage is huge but there is a lot of risk with him.   Because of this, he should be downgraded.

at this point I have no further comment until I look at the list in more detail.

No you don’t agree, there aren’t any qbs that should be drafted before the tenth I see what I agree with.  

Jackson and Mahomes are great points to work with about drafting qbs. 

One Mahomes was clearly drafted to early this past season, and the other Jackson was draft about avg the eight round.  

No need to draft any Qb  in the first four picks , non , zero.  

[Ray_T 587]

29 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

If you played on RTSports, where the scoring system for QBs is 1 pt per 20 yards passing (not 1 per 25) and only -1 per INT (not -2), Winston was particularly valuable.

no doubt.   All I'm saying is the uncertainty with him makes him too risky to be ranked that high.

[Ray_T 587]

9 minutes ago, weepaws said:

No you don’t agree, there aren’t any qbs that should be drafted before the tenth I see what I agree with.  

Jackson and Mahomes are great points to work with about drafting qbs. 

One Mahomes was clearly drafted to early this past season, and the other Jackson was draft about avg the eight round.  

No need to draft any Qb  in the first four picks , non , zero.  

IN that case, we do not agree.

I think if a QB exists that gives you an advantage on every other team in the league, you take him in the first 4 rounds.    I would argue nobody was so dominant that they deserve a first round pick, but late 2nd or early third  (depending on your rules) for the top QB on the board (likely Mahomes or Jackson) isnt unreasonable as those 2 players seem to stand above the rest.    Because I value both players about the same, if I draft in the late 2nd round and early third (due to the serpentine draft) I likely wait to round three if both are available at the time I'm selecting my second round pick.

once both those guys are taken, I'd wait to the later rounds like you suggest.

I suppose if you were a fan of a certain player or team you might take your guy in round 7 or 8 to make sure you got the guy you want, but that's a decision based on personal preference and not based on stats or projected stats.

 

 

[weepaws 2,452]

54 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

IN that case, we do not agree.

I think if a QB exists that gives you an advantage on every other team in the league, you take him in the first 4 rounds.    I would argue nobody was so dominant that they deserve a first round pick, but late 2nd or early third  (depending on your rules) for the top QB on the board (likely Mahomes or Jackson) isnt unreasonable as those 2 players seem to stand above the rest.    Because I value both players about the same, if I draft in the late 2nd round and early third (due to the serpentine draft) I likely wait to round three if both are available at the time I'm selecting my second round pick.

once both those guys are taken, I'd wait to the later rounds like you suggest.

I suppose if you were a fan of a certain player or team you might take your guy in round 7 or 8 to make sure you got the guy you want, but that's a decision based on personal preference and not based on stats or projected stats.

 

 

And that’s ok that we don’t agree, of you take a Qb early in a draft, that Qb better end up being the number ff Qb .  

Of not it wasn’t worth it, same chat that took place last off season about Mahomes, and he didn’t finish as the number one qb, and some on this board have said, never again wou,d they do that. 

So if Jackson and I would think he well be, his the first Qb taken, and taken early be better be number one again, problem is, that on,y once and I’m pretty sure it’s been 11 years as a Qb repeated being number one. 

[Ray_T 587]

20 minutes ago, weepaws said:

And that’s ok that we don’t agree, of you take a Qb early in a draft, that Qb better end up being the number ff Qb .  

Of not it wasn’t worth it, same chat that took place last off season about Mahomes, and he didn’t finish as the number one qb, and some on this board have said, never again wou,d they do that. 

So if Jackson and I would think he well be, his the first Qb taken, and taken early be better be number one again, problem is, that on,y once and I’m pretty sure it’s been 11 years as a Qb repeated being number one. 

That's fair.  

I will agree if you pick a QB in round 1.  he needs to be the top fantasy QB (or at least close to it.)

If you pick him in round 2 or 3 I'd argue he just needs to be top 3 at his position for that pick to be worth your while.

If your QB wont be a top 3 fantasy QB in your league, there is absolutely no reason to take him earlier than round 6 or 7.

for the record, I have never picked a QB in round 1 of any draft in my life.  Although there was a decent case to grab mahomes in round 1 last year (based on projected stats and previous year's stats).  especially in a league where pass TD's are worth 6 points.

Most times I pick my starting QB around round 6 in a standard league.   Early enough that I have a pick of the second tier of QB's and get the guy I want.  If for some reason the guy I want is gone, I usually wait longer and grab a QB in round 8 or 9.      This is because once you get past the #3 or #4 QB nearly all the QB's have similar stats so there is really no reason to grab one earlier unless you have a personal preference (or bias) for a certain player, or type of player or a certain team.

 

 

 

 

 

[weepaws 2,452]

I used to draft about the same way, I usually would start to look at qbs around 7th rounds or so, and usually I would go back to back qbs. 

But i stoped doing that, and I have started to simply draft them late and stream. 

I used to carry no less then two qbs and if I had the bench size I would carry three, but now I draft one , I draft that one late, and look at matchups.  

I found it hard when I drafted a Qb early to either bench him rom drop him for what is a much better matchup from another Qb, by drafting one late and knowing I’m going to stream I find it works out great, and usually as the season goes a high tear qbs usually becomes available either because of a bye or a injury, that I can pick up and stash. 

Thanks Ray. 

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,566]

I will take Drake over Kamara all day fwiw

true every down back, in a system that will provide tons of opportunity

 

[weepaws 2,452]

Yeah I like Drake also, I have him in the 15-17 ranking right now in non ppr. 

I also like what we saw from Edmonds, I think he’ll earn more playing time next season also. 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

On 1/9/2020 at 12:06 PM, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

I will take Drake over Kamara all day fwiw

true every down back, in a system that will provide tons of opportunity

 

Under every coach in Miami, Drake kept getting chances but never took the job.  I'm not believing in Drake at all, until he can take the job and keep it.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,566]

33 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Under every coach in Miami, Drake kept getting chances but never took the job.  I'm not believing in Drake at all, until he can take the job and keep it.

It seemed to me they did everything they could to not give him the opportunity 

kingsbury brought him in and the offense flourished