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RoadLizard

Who else would love to see Brady play elsewhere???

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19 minutes ago, Mike FF Today said:

😮 

Where does he end up... TB, LAC, IND?

If he wants to win a SB, what better place to go than Tampa?  :headbanger:

 

Update: Just heard on NFL Radio, that they expect the Colts to get a deal done with Rivers soon.

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Tampa had $82M in cap space entering this off-season.  They tagged Barrett for $16M and signed Paul for 2 more years at $27M.  If they give Brady $30M, that still leaves them over $22M.  They need to upgrade the backfield.  With that space available, they'll have more than enough money to extend Godwin.

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15 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think your talking about two different things here.  

First I agree they have their Qb in Jimmy g.  

But you can’t sell me on the fact that the Bucs would give Brady a better shot next season for a super over the Niners.  

Niners also have good young WRs, and have even a much better te,, just ask buc fan TB.  

Plus Niners have a much better def, better coaching , and a run game, and the Bucs have no run game.  

Thanks. 

for me its not a matter of 'better shot to win'

I just dont think San Fran is shopping.

of the realistic landing spots, I think Tampa gives him the best chance to continue to play at a high level.

it is a team on the rise, and the addition of Brady immediately makes Them a contender. (even if its only for a year or two)

 

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5 minutes ago, Mike FF Today said:

 

That's a positive sign... we all know these guys lie about everything.

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He won’t smell the super bowl with the Bucs.  

Im still hoping he goes to the Niners, it’s a slim and zero chance I’m sure.  

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6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

An opinion we don't share.

Fair enough. 

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4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

for me its not a matter of 'better shot to win'

I just dont think San Fran is shopping.

of the realistic landing spots, I think Tampa gives him the best chance to continue to play at a high level.

it is a team on the rise, and the addition of Brady immediately makes Them a contender. (even if its only for a year or two)

 

I would agree with you Ray, I’ve read and heard that Brady wanted to go to the Niners.  

Based on their talent I see why. 

But I’m sure the Niners thought about it, after all it is Brady, but they have their Qb. 

Thanks Ray. 

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8 minutes ago, weepaws said:

He won’t smell the super bowl with the Bucs.  

Im still hoping he goes to the Niners, it’s a slim and zero chance I’m sure.  

If Brady goes to the Niners, the Bucs should be offering way more than the Pats for Garoppolo.  He'd be way better in Tampa than he was in SF.

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49 minutes ago, weepaws said:

He won’t smell the super bowl with the Bucs.  

Im still hoping he goes to the Niners, it’s a slim and zero chance I’m sure.  

I think his chances of winning a superbowl there are not that bad.

Tampa finished 7-9 with a QB who threw 30 interceptions.

5 of their 9 losses were by 7 points or less.

I think with Brady at the helm, they win 4 of those 5 close games and finish 11-5.

Just sayin......

 

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21 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I think his chances of winning a superbowl there are not that bad.

Tampa finished 7-9 with a QB who threw 30 interceptions.

5 of their 9 losses were by 7 points or less.

I think with Brady at the helm, they win 4 of those 5 close games and finish 11-5.

Just sayin......

 

That's not even considering the likelihood of a nice upgrade in the backfield.

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1 hour ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Bad for the fantasy players on TB, good for their win total. 

I don't necessarily think that's true.  Over the last 9 seasons, Brady's 16 game average is 603 pass attempts, 64.5% comp%, 7.5 ypa, and 5.5 TD%.  Why would you think that'll drop?  Because last year his numbers dropped because other than Edleman, he had no one else to throw to?  If you take those numbers and create a stat line, that's 389-603, 4522 yards, and 33 TD's.  That's 9 more receptions and 500 less yards than what Winston did last year.  That's a 41 fantasy point difference, among 2 WR's, 2 TE's, and a couple RB's.  That's not a lot.  I actually think with Brady, the yards may drop, but I think the TD's could go up.  For every 1 extra TD any player gets, that's 2.5 less catches for 35 less yards Brady could pass for.  I don't see how any Bucs' player gets worse for fantasy with Brady.  My thinking is that Brady will throw for 4800 yards and 40 TD's because the Bucs won't run as much (because they can't), as the Patriots did.

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I Wonder what the wonder boy's excuse for stinking up the joint will be now that he has all these "weapons" in TB?🤔

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1 minute ago, jrokh said:

I Wonder what the wonder boy's excuse for stinking up the joint will be now that he has all these "weapons" in TB?🤔

Unless he gets hurt, I really don't see how he has a bad year.

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4 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Unless he gets hurt, I really don't see how he has a bad year.

Well, if you take off those homer glasses for just a second, you might see a lot of ways a 43 year old QB could have a bad year. Start with arthritis and work your way down the list. But if this report holds congrats, might as well enjoy it for a while.

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Just now, jrokh said:

Well, if you take off those homer glasses for just a second, you might see a lot of ways a 43 year old QB could have a bad year. Start with arthritis and work your way down the list. But if this report holds congrats, might as well enjoy it for a while.

Does arthritis = "hurt"?

Not really sure what homer things I stated.  Are you talking about the fantasy aspect or the Bucs Super Bowl potential?  If you're going towards stats, I gave you factual evidence of recent history.  If you're going by the Super Bowl prediction... no sh!t, I'm a Bucs fan!

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18 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't necessarily think that's true.  Over the last 9 seasons, Brady's 16 game average is 603 pass attempts, 64.5% comp%, 7.5 ypa, and 5.5 TD%.  Why would you think that'll drop?  Because last year his numbers dropped because other than Edleman, he had no one else to throw to?  If you take those numbers and create a stat line, that's 389-603, 4522 yards, and 33 TD's.  That's 9 more receptions and 500 less yards than what Winston did last year.  That's a 41 fantasy point difference, among 2 WR's, 2 TE's, and a couple RB's.  That's not a lot.  I actually think with Brady, the yards may drop, but I think the TD's could go up.  For every 1 extra TD any player gets, that's 2.5 less catches for 35 less yards Brady could pass for.  I don't see how any Bucs' player gets worse for fantasy with Brady.  My thinking is that Brady will throw for 4800 yards and 40 TD's because the Bucs won't run as much (because they can't), as the Patriots did.

What you would probably see in Tampa with Brady at the helm:

Less yards

More finished drives resulting in more TD's

Less Int's

More of the team making smart plays to win instead of dumb plays to lose.

 

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2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

What you would probably see in Tampa with Brady at the helm:

Less yards

More finished drives resulting in more TD's

Less Int's

More of the team making smart plays to win instead of dumb plays to lose.

 

That's fair.  Like I mentioned, for every TD extra a player gets, that's 2.5 less receptions and 35 less yards and they still equal out.

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Yeah artists does  make the bones hurt.  

I don’t know I see a short game coming to Tampa with Brady, in his last nine game that’s including the playoff game Brady avg 16 ff points. 

He reached 20 plus only once in those last nine games, and he scored less then 15 ff points in 5 of those nine games.  

Tampa does need to improve at the rb postion, maybe a D Freeman, he’s not great , but he’s better then what they have now, and he well help in the passing game.  

I still think the big upside we’ll be Howard.  

I think both WRs we’ll take a hit in ff points.  

Brady well be inherited a lot better playmakers then he had last season, but I think he’s going to be a dink and dunk type Qb at his age. 

So rbs and te should benefit the most.  

But im sorry, I don’t see a super bowl run. 

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49 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Does arthritis = "hurt"?

Not really sure what homer things I stated.  Are you talking about the fantasy aspect or the Bucs Super Bowl potential?  If you're going towards stats, I gave you factual evidence of recent history.  If you're going by the Super Bowl prediction... no sh!t, I'm a Bucs fan!

So being a Bucs fan= being unrealistic and unwise? The Bucs scored plenty of points last season. Is Brady going to play corner?

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16 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Yeah artists does  make the bones hurt.  

I don’t know I see a short game coming to Tampa with Brady, in his last nine game that’s including the playoff game Brady avg 16 ff points. 

He reached 20 plus only once in those last nine games, and he scored less then 15 ff points in 5 of those nine games.  

Tampa does need to improve at the rb postion, maybe a D Freeman, he’s not great , but he’s better then what they have now, and he well help in the passing game.  

I still think the big upside we’ll be Howard.  

I think both WRs we’ll take a hit in ff points.  

Brady well be inherited a lot better playmakers then he had last season, but I think he’s going to be a dink and dunk type Qb at his age. 

So rbs and te should benefit the most.  

But im sorry, I don’t see a super bowl run. 

Yeah, I think with Brady at the Helm, Howard likely puts up big numbers.   for sure that kid will develop as a player with Brady there.

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And it’s done. 

Wow it’s going to be weird to read about him in a Bucs uniform.  

 

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't necessarily think that's true.  Over the last 9 seasons, Brady's 16 game average is 603 pass attempts, 64.5% comp%, 7.5 ypa, and 5.5 TD%.  Why would you think that'll drop?  Because last year his numbers dropped because other than Edleman, he had no one else to throw to?  If you take those numbers and create a stat line, that's 389-603, 4522 yards, and 33 TD's.  That's 9 more receptions and 500 less yards than what Winston did last year.  That's a 41 fantasy point difference, among 2 WR's, 2 TE's, and a couple RB's.  That's not a lot.  I actually think with Brady, the yards may drop, but I think the TD's could go up.  For every 1 extra TD any player gets, that's 2.5 less catches for 35 less yards Brady could pass for.  I don't see how any Bucs' player gets worse for fantasy with Brady.  My thinking is that Brady will throw for 4800 yards and 40 TD's because the Bucs won't run as much (because they can't), as the Patriots did.

He’s going to throw for closer to 4K yards and 30TDs. Noodle arm and dump offs forthcoming 

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14 hours ago, jrokh said:

So being a Bucs fan= being unrealistic and unwise? The Bucs scored plenty of points last season. Is Brady going to play corner?

LOL, no, it means expecting the "possible" to be reality.  Yes, their offense did score a lot of points last year, but the reason they were losing wasn't because of their cornerbacks, which actually played really well in the second half of the season, it was because their QB was turning the ball over routinely.  Davis and Murphy-Bunting had a total of 1 combined season in the NFL, and they developed quite well.  In the 2nd half of the season, their defense gave up 7 less points per game and 55 less total yards per game as compared to the 1st half of the season.  To note, despite your assertions, Carlton Davis ranked as the 23rd best cornerback in the NFL last year by PFF.  Not bad for a second year player.  Here's what they had to say about him...

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-rankings-top-25-cornerbacks-through-week-17

Quote

23. CARLTON DAVIS, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Let me introduce you to second-year cornerback Carlton Davis, who played a huge role in the Buccaneers finishing 5-3 over their final eight regular-season games.

He is a promising lock-down corner with a great 6-foot-1 frame that looks good getting off the bus. He is a physical man-to-man corner who can ragdoll wide receivers at the line of scrimmage and force the quarterback to go elsewhere with the ball. When the Buccaneers cut Vernon Hargreaves III on Nov. 10, Davis assumed the role of covering the opponent's No. 1, and he more than stepped up to the task by closing out the season with the third-highest forced incompletion rate among cornerbacks. Get to know the name, because you will hear it often.

In fact, in the last 7 games of the season, after Hargreaves was removed from the equation, Pro Football Focus ranked both Davis and Murphy-Bunting in their Top 10 performances 5 times... in 3 of them, they were ranked together in the top 10 in the same game.  If you'll notice in that quote I provided for you, the Bucs were 5-3 in their last 8 games... despite the fact that Winston threw 18 Int's and fumbled 5 times (losing 2).

Here's another write-up about their secondary, from PFF.

Quote

19. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers experienced some real growing pains on their way to this year’s 20th-ranked team coverage grade (70.1). In November, they released former first-round cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III then inserted second-year cornerback Carlton Davis into a more prominent role, and they never looked back. Davis led all starters with a 72.1 coverage grade while cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting (66.5) and safeties Andrew Adams (63.6) and Mike Edwards (52.5) all scored below 70.0. The secondary group finished with the third-most forced incompletions (57) in the league, but that was mostly because Davis led the league in this metric, with an impressive 22 forced incompletions all to himself. Both young and talented, the Buccaneers' secondary rest in the good hands of defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.

With this group returning in full next season, I think it's actually reasonable to project them being a top 10 secondary.  This defense could very well be top 7 next year without the human turnover machine behind center.  Their run defense was already great and their passing defense is getting a lot better with experience.  So, circling back to my first statement, the possibility of this defense being a top 7 and the addition of a great QB (even if he only plays at a "very good" level), makes this team a surefire playoff team.  An upgrade to the backfield will put them in the Super Bowl discussion (from a fan perspective).  I'd have to imagine that an arbitrary team that had a top 7 defense and top 5 offense, would be considered a Super Bowl contender.

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13 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

He’s going to throw for closer to 4K yards and 30TDs. Noodle arm and dump offs forthcoming 

LOL, who exactly is he going to dump the ball off to?  Ronald Jones?   Virtually every route the Bucs run, takes the pass catcher at least 7 yards down field.  It's the reason why Winston averaged 8 ypa the last 3 seasons.  Prior to last season, Brady averaged 7.7 over the prior 10 seasons, with the 3 most recent being 8, 7.9, and 7.6 respectively.  I see no reason why he wouldn't be any worse than 7.5, and with the likelihood of a minimum of 600 pass attempts, I see the floor as being around 4500 yards.  If it's any lower than that, there's really only 2 logical reasons, #1) He got hurt and #2) The Bucs are winning every game early and only running in the 2nd second half of most games.  If it's the former, then hey, tough break.  If it's the latter... I won't care because the Bucs are going to get a playoff bye.

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if he gets his wish and they go after Antonio Brown,  the offense on paper  would look unreal

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If they sign Brown that sap  would give them a big amount of issue. 

Three devas that  all well  believe that they are the fairest of them all. 

Ouch.  

I think the coach we’ll start have chest pains like Fred.  

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Tom Brady Total QBR (50 is average, 100 is perfect), 2017- 70.6. 3rd best in the league

2018 QBR- 68.4, 6th best in the league

2019 QBR- 53.7, 17th best in the league. Which can also be viewed as below average. Even when considering the lack of weapons, that is a precipitous drop. Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, and Ryan Fitzpatrick didn't have better weapons than Brady, yet they all had much better QBR. No QB, in my memory at least, has ever performed at this age, it is uncharted territory. If TB 12 was my # 1 Fantasy QB this year, I would be very uneasy. The guy I would target would be OJ Howard, provided his price doesn't rise too much. I'll let the overzealous Bucs fans overdraft Mr. Wonderful...

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30 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Tom Brady Total QBR (50 is average, 100 is perfect), 2017- 70.6. 3rd best in the league

2018 QBR- 68.4, 6th best in the league

2019 QBR- 53.7, 17th best in the league. Which can also be viewed as below average. Even when considering the lack of weapons, that is a precipitous drop. Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, and Ryan Fitzpatrick didn't have better weapons than Brady, yet they all had much better QBR. No QB, in my memory at least, has ever performed at this age, it is uncharted territory. If TB 12 was my # 1 Fantasy QB this year, I would be very uneasy. The guy I would target would be OJ Howard, provided his price doesn't rise too much. I'll let the overzealous Bucs fans overdraft Mr. Wonderful...

well, who would you suggest they sign?  

 

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20 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

well, who would you suggest they sign?  

 

Remember when people on this board last year said that Winston wouldn't be a top 10 fantasy QB?  When people said that Winston wasn't good enough to have 2 top 10 WR's?  A lot of those people were wrong.  I can easily see Brady throw for 4500 yards and 40 TD's.  Let's play "Mr. Conservative" and say he throws for 4200 yards and 32 TD's.  That would put him at QB7 last year.  If someone is going to give me a top 10 fantasy QB in the 10th round, I'm in.

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37 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

well, who would you suggest they sign?  

 

I never said or suggested they shouldn't sign Brady. He is still the GOAT, and is an upgrade over Jameis, although in fairness so would Bridgewater. Brady should mean more in real football terms with leadership, confidence and other intangibles. What I did suggest and will reiterate now is in Fantasy Football I will pass on TB12 as a QB 1. As my backup, if I have one, sure sign me up. Otherwise I will leave him to all the overzealous Bucs fans who are acting like they signed Mahomes. not a guy closer in age to Bernie Sanders...

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I still think it would be prudent for Tampa to draft a QB this year or next.

Not sure if that will happen or not.

but at Brady's age, it makes sense to have a solid backup because I truly think the risk of injury goes up with age.

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42 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I still think it would be prudent for Tampa to draft a QB this year or next.

Not sure if that will happen or not.

but at Brady's age, it makes sense to have a solid backup because I truly think the risk of injury goes up with age.

I definitely agree.  The Bucs do need to draft Brady's successor at some point.  I don't think it has to be this year, but definitely next year.

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2 hours ago, jrokh said:

Tom Brady Total QBR (50 is average, 100 is perfect), 2017- 70.6. 3rd best in the league

2018 QBR- 68.4, 6th best in the league

2019 QBR- 53.7, 17th best in the league. Which can also be viewed as below average. Even when considering the lack of weapons, that is a precipitous drop. Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, and Ryan Fitzpatrick didn't have better weapons than Brady, yet they all had much better QBR. No QB, in my memory at least, has ever performed at this age, it is uncharted territory. If TB 12 was my # 1 Fantasy QB this year, I would be very uneasy. The guy I would target would be OJ Howard, provided his price doesn't rise too much. I'll let the overzealous Bucs fans overdraft Mr. Wonderful...

Yeah, that revolving door of WR's had NOTHING to do with it right?  I'm guessing if we're using this logic, you're not drafting Aaron Rodgers as a QB1 either?  After all, his QBR was 50.4.

Interestingly, the QB3 last year was Winston... did you notice his QBR?  If not, it's funny, because it's exactly the same as Brady's... 53.7.  Weird, huh?  I know.

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