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Coronavirus - Doomsday

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41 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Well it reduces Covid mortality and there’s no evidence it increases non-Covid mortality, so yes.

So this is the same thinking as not eating McDonalds reduces all cause mortality

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3 minutes ago, paulinstl said:

Alex Berensen has done nothing in the last two years other than misinterpret data to get his POV out there. His claims have been consistently proven inaccurate. The bottom line is that Covid vaccines have proven to decrease serious illness, death and hospitalizations worldwide. 

 

Don't believe in the vaccine, don't get it, but quit passing off bullsh1t data to claim they cause deaths.

I don't have Berensen's history of claims in front of me, but his last post is sourced with deaths and vaccination stats.  How is he manipulating these known accepted statistics? 

There are a lot people who have correlated excess deaths to high vaccine uptake countries. 

Africa had a relatively non-existent covid response and they survived fine.  

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4 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

I don't have Berensen's history of claims in front of me, but his last post is sourced with deaths and vaccination stats.  How is he manipulating these known accepted statistics? 

There are a lot people who have correlated excess deaths to high vaccine uptake countries. 

Africa had a relatively non-existent covid response and they survived fine.  

Sweden has a higher vax rate than the US (with mRNA) and not seeing a rise in excess deaths.

Africa does not have reliable data (particularly during covid) and their median age is like 18.

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2 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

I don't have Berensen's history of claims in front of me, but his last post is sourced with deaths and vaccination stats.  How is he manipulating these known accepted statistics? 

There are a lot people who have correlated excess deaths to high vaccine uptake countries. 

Africa had a relatively non-existent covid response and they survived fine.  

I saw no data there other than that deaths are up. Unless he cites a scientific study proving causation between Covid vaccines and that jump in deaths, it's nothing more than opinion. He is claiming the death rate increase is higher because it occurred after vaccines were given. It's impossible and intellectually dishonest to make that claim without proving direct causation.

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On 3/13/2020 at 1:17 PM, Baker Boy said:

This is all so stupid! Isolate the old and the weak and let everyone else live their normal lives. Their chance of dying from this is very small. Most of the people that need protection are the least productive members of our society so life goes on as normal. We don’t have to stop the world. 

March 13, 2020! How different would the world would be today, good or bad, if we had followed this plan.

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7 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Sweden has a higher vax rate than the US (with mRNA) and not seeing a rise in excess deaths.

Africa does not have reliable data (particularly during covid) and their median age is like 18.

Sweden also suspended Moderna for those 30 and under after their risk reward ratio showed no benefit of the vaccine. 

Africa also has some of the worst living conditions and healthcare is only available to a  fraction of their population.  They did just fine considering and are not having any excess deaths even though they all had the same exposure and less medicine to treat it. 

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8 minutes ago, paulinstl said:

I saw no data there other than that deaths are up. Unless he cites a scientific study proving causation between Covid vaccines and that jump in deaths, it's nothing more than opinion. He is claiming the death rate increase is higher because it occurred after vaccines were given. It's impossible and intellectually dishonest to make that claim without proving direct causation.

So why do you think excess death is up 20% in the UK today? 

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8 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

So this is the same thinking as not eating McDonalds reduces all cause mortality

It probably does (assuming you're grouping all fast food together here compared to people that don't eat fast food), not sure I follow.

Wait are you still trying to claim the data is confounded and that it's people that are already fat that eat at McDonald's?  Once again, the study I posted controlled for that.  Nonetheless, I'd be pretty confident a study controlling for obesity rates would still show less mortality/overall health problems as a result of eating less fast food.

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7 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

So why do you think excess death is up 20% in the UK today? 

Just like Berensen, I have no idea. At least one of us is honest.

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3 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

It probably does (assuming you're grouping all fast food together here compared to people that don't eat fast food), not sure I follow.

Wait are you still trying to claim the data is confounded and that it's people that are already fat that eat at McDonald's?  Once again, the study I posted controlled for that.  Nonetheless, I'd be pretty confident a study controlling for obesity rates would still show less mortality/overall health problems as a result of eating less fast food.

I don't even know where this is headed anymore.  It just started with my anecdotal experience that in MY family, the real world data is showing the unvaccinated are catching covid less often.  A LOT less often.  This lines up with Cleveland clinic's REAL WORLD DATA as well. 

Natural immunity is perfectly fine against whatever is coming down the pipe in regards to covid.  

The vaccinated still face some uncertainty on several front in my eyes. I'll leave it at that. 

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1 minute ago, paulinstl said:

Just like Berensen, I have no idea. At least one of us is honest.

He is pointing to statistics that support his theory or evidence supporting his theory. I tend to give that more credibility than the UK explaining that emergency response times are slower...

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1 minute ago, Ultra Max Power said:

He is pointing to statistics that support his theory or evidence supporting his theory. I tend to give that more credibility than the UK explaining that emergency response times are slower...

What he is saying:

1. Deaths in the UK are up 20 percent

2. Those deaths happened after vaccines were introduced

3. Therefore the deaths are caused by vaccines

 

Don't you see the problem with this?

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6 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

Sweden also suspended Moderna for those 30 and under after their risk reward ratio showed no benefit of the vaccine. 

Africa also has some of the worst living conditions and healthcare is only available to a  fraction of their population.  They did just fine considering and are not having any excess deaths even though they all had the same exposure and less medicine to treat it. 

I'd be fine with suspending Moderna under 30.  It does have a higher myocarditis risk than Pfizer.

They weren't really "fine" in 2020-2021 according to many estimates, like I said they don't have good data.  And even if they did better than other countries it's due to them having a median age of about 18, so yeah, it was hard for covid to kill you if you're already dead.    This is actually where I think some ivermectin misinformation stems from, it likely reduces all-cause mortality in Africa due to its effectiveness against tapeworms, not it's effectiveness against covid.

 

5 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

So why do you think excess death is up 20% in the UK today? 

If it's anything related to covid, likely lockdowns that resulted in delays in care, after all the UK had much stricter lockdowns than here.

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6 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

I don't even know where this is headed anymore.  It just started with my anecdotal experience that in MY family, the real world data is showing the unvaccinated are catching covid less often.  A LOT less often.  This lines up with Cleveland clinic's REAL WORLD DATA as well. 

Natural immunity is perfectly fine against whatever is coming down the pipe in regards to covid.  

The vaccinated still face some uncertainty on several front in my eyes. I'll leave it at that. 

Can you clarify why you brought up McDonald's?

I do agree that natural immunity is good, once you have it.   But vaccines prevented many deaths by people who were able to get vaccinated prior to getting covid for the first time.

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4 minutes ago, paulinstl said:

What he is saying:

1. Deaths in the UK are up 20 percent

2. Those deaths happened after vaccines were introduced

3. Therefore the deaths are caused by vaccines

 

Don't you see the problem with this?

When he can also source additional countries seeing the same pattern, its an acceptable theory. 

He also does point out that some of those deaths are due to covid.  Just not the majority of them. 

For reference excess deaths up 20% is a huge deal on the variation scale.  A couple % points happens, 20% is societal altering numbers. 

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9 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

When he can also source additional countries seeing the same pattern, its an acceptable theory. 

He also does point out that some of those deaths are due to covid.  Just not the majority of them. 

For reference excess deaths up 20% is a huge deal on the variation scale.  A couple % points happens, 20% is societal altering numbers. 

It's not an acceptable theory unless it rules out other factors as potential causation. He is claiming vaccines are causing those deaths. Do we know details that could be contributing? What age groups have seen the increases, what part of the country are the deaths in, what economic demographic are those deaths from, how many actually got the shots?

 

All these things could be contributing factors. He has shown no factual data. His claim is conjecture, not worth the ink it took to write it. If you really believe this assumption should be taken as anything more than just that, I don't know what to say, so I'll stop here, but I thank you for being respectful in this discussion. I find that rarely happens here.

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16 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I'd be fine with suspending Moderna under 30.  It does have a higher myocarditis risk than Pfizer.

They weren't really "fine" in 2020-2021 according to many estimates, like I said they don't have good data.  And even if they did better than other countries it's due to them having a median age of about 18, so yeah, it was hard for covid to kill you if you're already dead.    This is actually where I think some ivermectin misinformation stems from, it likely reduces all-cause mortality in Africa due to its effectiveness against tapeworms, not it's effectiveness against covid.

 

If it's anything related to covid, likely lockdowns that resulted in delays in care, after all the UK had much stricter lockdowns than here.

If there was a massive wave of deaths in Africa we would have heard about it.  What estimates are showing Africa did worse than other countries?  Africa held its own with a very small vaccination rate.  They aren't currently reporting excess deaths magnitudes higher than normal.  Why not?  If covid is the slow killer and it kills the unvaccinated at a much higher percentage...  Or is this all going to go back to "Africa doesn't track numbers well" and "No one cares to look at the ground truth"

What is the evidence of "delayed care" resulting in a 20% spike in mortality?  Its another unproveable boogieman.  There has to be a metric to track the delay in care right?   

 

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4 minutes ago, paulinstl said:

It's not an acceptable theory unless it rules out other factors as potential causation. He is claiming vaccines are causing those deaths. Do we know details that could be contributing? What age groups have seen the increases, what part of the country are the deaths in, what economic demographic are those deaths from, how many actually got the shots?

 

All these things could be contributing factors. He has shown no factual data. His claim is conjecture, not worth the ink it took to write it. If you really believe this assumption should be taken as anything more than just that, I don't know what to say, so I'll stop here, but I thank you for being respectful in this discussion. I find that rarely happens here.

I think its absolutely worth looking into.  Its firmly in the correlation realmn. Now correlation doesn't equal causation, but its a darn good place to start.  For the UK to already rule out vaccine complications (vaccines without long term studies) is dangerous.  

There are a couple different studies that show signs (not 100% proof) that these vaccines may be hurting people's long term immune system.  I just don't see it a wild jump to the theory that vaccines are causing complications and excess deaths. 

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2 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

I think its absolutely worth looking into.  Its firmly in the correlation realmn. Now correlation doesn't equal causation, but its a darn good place to start.  For the UK to already rule out vaccine complications (vaccines without long term studies) is dangerous.  

There are a couple different studies that show signs (not 100% proof) that these vaccines may be hurting people's long term immune system.  I just don't see it a wild jump to the theory that vaccines are causing complications and excess deaths. 

That's what I'm saying. Let's get some real data analysis so that this issue can go from conjecture to fact. I also would like to know if there are saftey issues from the vaccine that outweigh the benefit. Until we get that, people like Berensen are no better than Chicken Little.

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3 hours ago, TimHauck said:

Yes that is how it works (the vaccine still protects against serious illness from Omicron even if not infection), this has been discussed previously.

I did not say the Omicron variant is blamed for spikes in 25-44 year old deaths.  The main “spike” was from Delta, but there was a higher baseline from Covid in general starting in 2020.   

The chart you posted shows a spike in 25-44 attributed to Delta in September of 2001 (which I always maintained was the peak and which you dishonestly tried to extend into Omicron territory), then another spike in February of 2022 with an amplitude almost equal to the Delta spike of September '21.  Delta's done well before Feb of 2022.  Omicron is mild.  Thus, you are telling us that a mild virus was causing a spike in deaths in relatively young people in Feb of '22, which is a crock, while simultaneously telling us that vaccines protected against death and serious illness from Omicron, which is also a crock.  

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58 minutes ago, Casual Observer said:

The chart you posted shows a spike in 25-44 attributed to Delta in September of 2001 (which I always maintained was the peak and which you dishonestly tried to extend into Omicron territory), then another spike in February of 2022 with an amplitude almost equal to the Delta spike of September '21.  Delta's done well before Feb of 2022.  Omicron is mild.  Thus, you are telling us that a mild virus was causing a spike in deaths in relatively young people in Feb of '22, which is a crock, while simultaneously telling us that vaccines protected against death and serious illness from Omicron, which is also a crock.  

The February 2022 spike was not "almost equal to the Delta spike."  Stop.

What do you think caused the spike in February 2022?  It likely was driven by covid, but we don't know the breakdown of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated to be able to answer definitively for the whole population.  There have been multiple studies showing 2 doses as still effective at preventing deaths into 2022 though.

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5 hours ago, Strike said:

Remember when I said that lockdowns were killing people who weren't getting the treatment they needed?  And remember all the times Tim Hack referenced "excess deaths" to support his lockdown/vaccine obsession?  Yeah, about all that:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11671593/America-suffered-300-000-non-Covid-excess-deaths-2020.html

He's a complete idiot who continues to showcase his low IQ as he becomes the last person on the planet to defend this useless garbage.

https://dossier.substack.com/p/bill-gates-concludes-that-mrna-shots?r=5bla8&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post

 

22 hours ago, TimHauck said:

I know no one’s getting convinced to take it at this point.  But I see you’re still trying to convince yourself your wife didn’t make a mistake by getting fired over refusing to take a very effective vaccine.

Holy, sh1t, the ignorance displayed here is of the charts.

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2 hours ago, Ultra Max Power said:

The annual boosters will take care of that. 

It will just kill the stupid like slo-nutts Hack and the other kool aid drinkers here like scooter mcDumbfock along with most of antifaguys. That's a win for planet earth.

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3 hours ago, Baker Boy said:

March 13, 2020! How different would the world would be today, good or bad, if we had followed this plan.

 

On 3/15/2020 at 10:22 AM, nobody said:

I disagree with aggression action now.  The time to take aggressive action was 1 month ago.  Now it's out and about.  Just let it run its course now.  If hospitals are stressed and overrun in some areas, so be it.

People are so scared of this thing, they'll stay home and keep the spread slowed down anyway.  Basically England's approach.  It'll be interesting to see how well that works out for him.

March 15th.  If you knew, you knew.

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2 hours ago, Ultra Max Power said:

If there was a massive wave of deaths in Africa we would have heard about it.  What estimates are showing Africa did worse than other countries?  Africa held its own with a very small vaccination rate.  They aren't currently reporting excess deaths magnitudes higher than normal.  Why not?  If covid is the slow killer and it kills the unvaccinated at a much higher percentage...  Or is this all going to go back to "Africa doesn't track numbers well" and "No one cares to look at the ground truth"

What is the evidence of "delayed care" resulting in a 20% spike in mortality?  Its another unproveable boogieman.  There has to be a metric to track the delay in care right?   

 

I didn’t say there was a “massive wave,” I said they “didn’t do fine,” but possibly better than other countries due to having a younger population.  Here’s an example of an African country that does have excess death data, but bad Covid data.  It also points out how few African countries have actual excess death data.  I’ll spare you the estimates since you won’t believe them anyway.

 


As far as delayed care, here is one study from the link @Strike shared: 

https://www.nber.org/papers/w30553

I mean we know for a fact that people weren’t going to the doctor as often in 2020. I know a prior article I shared showed the decline in prescriptions for diabetes medication.  And it would make more sense that these deaths would start showing up more now as opposed to 2020, because it would take some time for whatever condition may have been missed  to actually kill them. 

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5 hours ago, TimHauck said:

Well it reduces Covid mortality and there’s no evidence it increases non-Covid mortality, so yes.

No evidence?

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10 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

No evidence?

Correct, at least nothing that’s statistically significant.  That I’ve seen at least. Have you?

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2 hours ago, TimHauck said:

The February 2022 spike was not "almost equal to the Delta spike."  Stop.

What do you think caused the spike in February 2022?  It likely was driven by covid, but we don't know the breakdown of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated to be able to answer definitively for the whole population.  There have been multiple studies showing 2 doses as still effective at preventing deaths into 2022 though.

we dont know that, cause more than likely 75% of the people in this country at least have been exposed to covid

 

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3 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

we dont know that, cause more than likely 75% of the people in this country at least have been exposed to covid

 

By now, yes. Not sure if that was true around January 2022 yet

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1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

I didn’t say there was a “massive wave,” I said they “didn’t do fine,” but possibly better than other countries due to having a younger population.  Here’s an example of an African country that does have excess death data, but bad Covid data.  It also points out how few African countries have actual excess death data.  I’ll spare you the estimates since you won’t believe them anyway.

 


As far as delayed care, here is one study from the link @Strike shared: 

https://www.nber.org/papers/w30553

I mean we know for a fact that people weren’t going to the doctor as often in 2020. I know a prior article I shared showed the decline in prescriptions for diabetes medication.  And it would make more sense that these deaths would start showing up more now as opposed to 2020, because it would take some time for whatever condition may have been missed  to actually kill them. 

How is that statistician calculating his undercount ratio? Because they had 50k excess deaths in 2020 and only 2.8k were covid so he is chalking it up to an undercount? Seems like he is taking a swing with assumptions as well. 

 

For the UK, The 20% excess mortality data is across all age groups. Dr. John Campbell breaks down how they see it in the 0-14 age group as well. These aren't people missing their diabetes meds or delaying doctor appointments 3 months. Young people are dying in excess and there is no explanation for it. 

 

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1 hour ago, Ultra Max Power said:

How is that statistician calculating his undercount ratio? Because they had 50k excess deaths in 2020 and only 2.8k were covid so he is chalking it up to an undercount? Seems like he is taking a swing with assumptions as well. 

 

For the UK, The 20% excess mortality data is across all age groups. Dr. John Campbell breaks down how they see it in the 0-14 age group as well. These aren't people missing their diabetes meds or delaying doctor appointments 3 months. Young people are dying in excess and there is no explanation for it. 

 


I’m a sucker for beating down Covid minimizer trolls though so I will respond.

The point I was responding to was you claiming Africa didn’t have excess deaths, now you’re moving the goalposts to claim they weren’t driven by Covid.  Just take the L.

The US data I posted earlier showed a slight increase in the baseline for the under 25 group, but it started in 2020.  I don’t care that much about the UK, is the claim that it just started?

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1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

Dr. John Campbell lol

 

also you know he’s not a medical doctor right?

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5 hours ago, TimHauck said:

The February 2022 spike was not "almost equal to the Delta spike."  Stop.

What do you think caused the spike in February 2022?  It likely was driven by covid, but we don't know the breakdown of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated to be able to answer definitively for the whole population.  There have been multiple studies showing 2 doses as still effective at preventing deaths into 2022 though.

Yes it was.  44 and under, third chart.  Your Twitter guy.  Deaths were caused by tanking immune systems due to the vaxx.  What do you think the dip in deaths between September of '21 and February of '22 is?  (Delta being squeezed out by Omicron).  Omicron is like having a cold.  Only severely immunocompromised people would die from a cold.

You failed again Slo Nuts.

 

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1 hour ago, Casual Observer said:

Yes it was.  44 and under, third chart.  Your Twitter guy.  Deaths were caused by tanking immune systems due to the vaxx.  What do you think the dip in deaths between September of '21 and February of '22 is?  (Delta being squeezed out by Omicron).  Omicron is like having a cold.  Only severely immunocompromised people would die from a cold.

You failed again Slo Nuts.

 

I can read a chart, but apparently you can’t.  The February 2022 spike looks about 15% smaller than the September 2021 spike, that’s a pretty big difference.  It’s closer to the February 2021 spike though, which of course was before hardly anyone especially in that age group had been vaccinated.

You need to keep in mind that before Omicron there was still probably at least half of the country that hadn’t gotten Covid yet.  So even if Omicron is much less deadly than prior variants, it’s also much more contagious, so you could still end up with a similar death count despite a lower IFR.

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15 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I can read a chart, but apparently you can’t.  The February 2022 spike looks about 15% smaller than the September 2021 spike, that’s a pretty big difference.  It’s closer to the February 2021 spike though, which of course was before hardly anyone especially in that age group had been vaccinated.

You need to keep in mind that before Omicron there was still probably at least half of the country that hadn’t gotten Covid yet.  So even if Omicron is much less deadly than prior variants, it’s also much more contagious, so you could still end up with a similar death count despite a lower IFR.

The spikes are close.  That there was a spike at all in Feb 22 with Omicron is the interesting thing.  For the 50th time, Omicron is mild like a cold.  It doesn't matter what percentage of the population had covid or not; colds don't kill.

Put your thumb and forefinger in the shape of an "L" and put it to your forehead.

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