NFL Mock Draft: Version 4.0

[Mike FF Today 607]

Got our first NFL mock draft of the season posted yesterday. We'll have 3 updates to this as we head towards the Draft in Vegas beginning April 23rd.

NFL Mock Draft: Version 1.0 - 2/18/20
NFL Mock Draft Version 2.0 - 3/16/20
NFL Mock Draft Version 3.0 - 4/6/20
NFL Mock Draft Version 4.0 - 4/22/20

[Mike FF Today 607]

Posted version 3.0 today.

[listen2me 23 1,541]

Seems like an old write up for GB.  Blake is gone.  But Kirksey a fairly fast and sideline to sideline type LBer.  Health is an issue I suppose.

I know Queen is fast.  But Pettine uses a lot of safeties in the box as LBers.  

Kirksey may not work out or may get hurt again.  But Queen doesnt seem like a need now.  An athletic  guy like that wouldnt hurt but ILB is no longer a big need.

[ICEMAN 38]

I don't see any way that the Pats take a QB in the first round of the draft, unless Herbert falls into the mid-teens and they trade up. I don't think that Love is any better than Stidham. I think that it is much more probable that they trade down, or take the best LB/EDGE/OT that is is available. They lost a lot on the defensive side of the ball this free agency period, so I would expect them to draft on that side of the ball. Maybe even grab a top safety prospect to replace Devin McCourty when he retires in the near future. If they want to grab Jalen Hurts with one of their 3 third round picks, I am all for that, though.

 

ICEMAN

[JustinCharge 2,397]

The Chargers *could* have resigned Rivers on a 1 or 2 year deal.  No-one would have criticized them for it.  No-one thinks Rivers is done.  But they let him walk.  That is tipping their hand.  The most likely reason for letting Rivers walk is that the Chargers have fallen deeply in love with a QB in this draft.  Its very unlikely that QB is Justin Herbert.  But many scouts have fallen in love with Tua.  This evidence leads me to the conclusion that the Chargers will trade up to draft Tua.  (unless they really believe the Dolphins are taking Herbert).

 

I see the Chargers trading up to 3 with the Lions.

 

If they think Tua is the real deal, they move up to get him, and the Chargers position themselves to go to war with the Chiefs in the 2020s.  And that's another thing to consider here.  The wild success of the Chiefs is also helping to force the Chargers to make a splash.

[listen2me 23 1,541]

On 4/17/2020 at 2:41 AM, riversco said:

The Chargers *could* have resigned Rivers on a 1 or 2 year deal.  No-one would have criticized them for it.  No-one thinks Rivers is done.  But they let him walk.  That is tipping their hand.  The most likely reason for letting Rivers walk is that the Chargers have fallen deeply in love with a QB in this draft.  Its very unlikely that QB is Justin Herbert.  But many scouts have fallen in love with Tua.  This evidence leads me to the conclusion that the Chargers will trade up to draft Tua.  (unless they really believe the Dolphins are taking Herbert).

 

I see the Chargers trading up to 3 with the Lions.

 

If they think Tua is the real deal, they move up to get him, and the Chargers position themselves to go to war with the Chiefs in the 2020s.  And that's another thing to consider here.  The wild success of the Chiefs is also helping to force the Chargers to make a splash.

I agree that the Chargers will draft Tua from their spot or at 3.  

I dont agree with how you arrive at that conclusion.

Rivers is done. Anyone knows that.  Almost like Eli.  Obviously not resigning him (did he even want to be there?) makes it obvious that they would draft one.

All you have to look at is them bolstering the right side of the oline.  It is simple as that in know who they want to draft.  Quite obvious.

[listen2me 23 1,541]

As an aside...looks not to be the Chargers...but I have read many teams are very concerned with his longevity.  A couple have him off their board.

-his game sets himself up for taking hits.

-he isnt a big QB by any means.

-he has several injuries not just the hip.

-the hip supposedly could get this arthritis type stuff and if it does he is basically toast.  

He is very talented and it is a shame he got that hip injury.  But good luck.  He is one of the more injury prone QBs I can remember.  It would be one thing if his game didnt depend on taking hits.  He will have to be very wary of avoiding hits as much as he can.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

31 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

As an aside...looks not to be the Chargers...but I have read many teams are very concerned with his longevity.  A couple have him off their board.

-his game sets himself up for taking hits.

-he isnt a big QB by any means.

-he has several injuries not just the hip.

-the hip supposedly could get this arthritis type stuff and if it does he is basically toast.  

He is very talented and it is a shame he got that hip injury.  But good luck.  He is one of the more injury prone QBs I can remember.  It would be one thing if his game didnt depend on taking hits.  He will have to be very wary of avoiding hits as much as he can.

The AFC West is probably a great landing spot for Tua.  The Raiders don't have a pass rush.  The Broncos pass rush isn't what it used to be.  The Chiefs had an OK rush and may not keep Chris Jones.  Basically everyone's pass rush in the division is taking a step back so if Tua needs to go somewhere where he takes less hits, the Chargers might be a great choice.

[listen2me 23 1,541]

Just now, riversco said:

The AFC West is probably a great landing spot for Tua.  The Raiders don't have a pass rush.  The Broncos pass rush isn't what it used to be.  The Chiefs had an OK rush and may not keep Chris Jones.  Basically everyone's pass rush in the division is taking a step back so if Tua needs to go somewhere where he takes less hits, the Chargers might be a great choice.

That doesnt mean those teams wont develop a pass rush within thr next few years.  Broncos still have a nice one for sure.  

[JustinCharge 2,397]

Just now, listen2me 23 said:

That doesnt mean those teams wont develop a pass rush within thr next few years.  Broncos still have a nice one for sure.  

Anyone can develop a pass rush at any time, but if he has to go somewhere, the AFC West might be best because everyone looks like they are losing pass rush.

[listen2me 23 1,541]

16 minutes ago, riversco said:

Anyone can develop a pass rush at any time, but if he has to go somewhere, the AFC West might be best because everyone looks like they are losing pass rush.

Meh pretty moot.  Afc east hardly has a pass rush.  Either way he exposes himself has an injury history and just from watching him can tell he is fairly brittle.  Tough maybe but brittle and doesnt take hits well.

[weepaws 2,459]

3 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

I agree that the Chargers will draft Tua from their spot or at 3.  

I dont agree with how you arrive at that conclusion.

Rivers is done. Anyone knows that.  Almost like Eli.  Obviously not resigning him (did he even want to be there?) makes it obvious that they would draft one.

All you have to look at is them bolstering the right side of the oline.  It is simple as that in know who they want to draft.  Quite obvious.

Yeah Rivers completion rate of 66% and that he throw for the fourth most passing indeed showed he’s done.  

I think the  Chargers had to many problems last season. 

The hold out of M Gordon didn’t help, the oline didn’t help, and one good wr doesn’t help, M Williams was a big disappointment last season. 

He’ll need help to produce, but if help he can still easily produce as a qb1 in ff. 

 

[listen2me 23 1,541]

21 hours ago, weepaws said:

Yeah Rivers completion rate of 66% and that he throw for the fourth most passing indeed showed he’s done.  

I think the  Chargers had to many problems last season. 

The hold out of M Gordon didn’t help, the oline didn’t help, and one good wr doesn’t help, M Williams was a big disappointment last season. 

He’ll need help to produce, but if help he can still easily produce as a qb1 in ff. 

 

Why would they resign him? Theyve gone no where with him in his prime.  Why sign up for another year or 2? Cut ties and move on.

He has had great weapons his whole career.   Last year he turned into Jameis Winston West.  

He is washed up at this point.

[listen2me 23 1,541]

LT Gates Vincent Jackson Keenan Allen Williams Henry Melvin Ek.  His whole career he has had good weapons.

Yea that 1000 yards with over 20 yards per catch sure did suck last year.  What a terrible number 2 WR! What a lack of weapons.

 

[listen2me 23 1,541]

Tua with a 13 on the wonderlic 

Yikes

[weepaws 2,459]

2 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

Why would they resign him? Theyve gone no where with him in his prime.  Why sign up for another year or 2? Cut ties and move on.

He has had great weapons his whole career.   Last year he turned into Jameis Winston West.  

He is washed up at this point.

No he’s not.  Williams has horrible hands , he’s been a bust so far imo   

Many expected him to shine last season and he what a wr 4   

Rivers isn’t done, it was a good move for him   

Im happy that he moved , I’ll be looking for him as a late late Qb to draft in ff 

So since think that Willams was so productive, who was his Qb last season . You did forget to mention that Rivers was fourth in passing yards and did you notice his competition %  

i bet not   

Thanks. 

[listen2me 23 1,541]

Im not talking about fantasy football.

Rivers isnt good at winning football games.  He is old and has become a chucker.  Similar to Jameis but Jameis is going to be a backup QB this year.  

Colts will trot him out for a lap and then he will retire.

[jrokh 568]

2 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

Tua with a 13 on the wonderlic 

Yikes

I heard that about Tua. A 13 that's almost Vince Young bad. That's 2 yellow flags (red is a little exaggerated) he has to deal with. Should be interesting on Thursday..

[weepaws 2,459]

35 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Im not talking about fantasy football.

Rivers isnt good at winning football games.  He is old and has become a chucker.  Similar to Jameis but Jameis is going to be a backup QB this year.  

Colts will trot him out for a lap and then he will retire.

Oh so now he’s not good and winning games, I see, so his production has nothing to do with you saying he’s done then, so him being productive still means he’s done. 

So in a team sport he’s to blame to all the Chargers issue then based on your testimony, even though he has been productive and as a Team with Rivers at Qb the Chargers have posted a winning record, and I was impressed at the Chargers rod record over that same time. 

Like I said I’m excited to see him with the colts, and I’ll be looking him as one of my late late Qb targets.  

Thanks. 

[AxeElf 787]

4 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

Tua with a 13 on the wonderlic 

Yikes

 

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

I heard that about Tua. A 13 that's almost Vince Young bad. 

On the bright side, Lamar Jackson also scored a 13...

Donovan McNabb scored a 14, and both Jim Kelly and Dan Marino scored 15.

So it's not a death sentence, but it's noteworthy.

[jrokh 568]

44 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

 

On the bright side, Lamar Jackson also scored a 13...

Donovan McNabb scored a 14, and both Jim Kelly and Dan Marino scored 15.

So it's not a death sentence, but it's noteworthy.

By itself it wouldn’t mean all that much. Added to the health concerns makes him QB3 

[jrokh 568]

Just to correct the record Adam Schefter is reporting Tua’s score is actually 19, which is one below the average. That makes more sense...

[Mike FF Today 607]

Final Mock is posted. Thanks to Justin Bales for working hard on these 4 installments. 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

On 4/19/2020 at 4:29 PM, AxeElf said:

 

On the bright side, Lamar Jackson also scored a 13...

Donovan McNabb scored a 14, and both Jim Kelly and Dan Marino scored 15.

So it's not a death sentence, but it's noteworthy.

There is a threshhold where a low wonderlic is a red flag but it is below 13.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

I also will say that is not a bad selection by the Chargers to take Herbert.  Either one is correct.  I think they take Tua, but could be wrong.

[listen2me 23 1,541]

Queen again. Ughh.  I mean at 30 it may be some value.  But the Packers dont really value MLB.  They picked up Kirksey.  The problem is stopping the run.  A 228lb speed LBer isnt the answer.

The Packers have wasted so many resources on the defense only to see it marginally better.  Their drafts are littered with 1st and 2nd round defense.  They signed the Smith Bros and Amos last year.  

I hope that isnt how the 1st round falls.