Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Mike FF Today

2020 NFL Draft Profiles - WR Justin Jefferson

Recommended Posts

I'll keep a running list here of Doug's NFL Draft Profiles. We're shooting for 15 of these bad boys between now and the beginning of the NFL Draft in late April.

WR CeeDee Lamb - 4/9/20
WR Jerry Jeudy - 4/12/20
WR Henry Ruggs III - 4/16/20
WR Justin Jefferson - 4/18/20
WR Laviska Shenault Jr. - 4/21/20

RB Jonathan Taylor - 3/22/20
RB D'Andre Swift - 3/27/20
RB J.K. Dobbins - 3/31/20
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 4/3/20
RB Cam Akers - 4/5/20

QB Joe Burrow - 3/9/20
QB Tua Tagovailoa - 3/12/20
QB Justin Herbert - 3/17/20
QB Jordan Love - 3/19/20

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very nice write up, thank you. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't follow college enough, but that write up on Love makes me hope the Pats don't pick him.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Herbivore said:

I don't follow college enough, but that write up on Love makes me hope the Pats don't pick him.  

I think they would be better off with Fromm or maybe Eason. I haven't evaluated either one fully yet, but I like what I saw from Fromm during my analysis of D'Andre Swift.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Love's ceiling is a bad starter/inconsistent backup (Winston), and his floor is a bad starter/"meh backup" (Brissett), why is he even considered as being drafted in the first 5 rounds?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If Love's ceiling is a bad starter/inconsistent backup (Winston), and his floor is a bad starter/"meh backup" (Brissett), why is he even considered as being drafted in the first 5 rounds?

Because NFL Teams' evaluation of draft prospects is usually vastly different, and I would argue far superior than Media Analysts view of them. See Mayfield, Baker,& Jones, Daniel...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Because NFL Teams' evaluation of draft prospects is usually vastly different, and I would argue far superior than Media Analysts view of them. See Mayfield, Baker,& Jones, Daniel...

The question was rhetorical.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

The question was rhetorical.

Whoosh...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If Love's ceiling is a bad starter/inconsistent backup (Winston), and his floor is a bad starter/"meh backup" (Brissett), why is he even considered as being drafted in the first 5 rounds?

I get the question was rhetorical, but I'd also add that Winston was the No. 1 overall pick in his draft (2015) and Brissett was a third-rounder in his year (2016).

Either way, I saw very little evidence he is the poor man's Patrick Mahomes that I've heard floated around in the last month or so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, The Football Guru said:

I'd also add that Winston was the No. 1 overall pick in his draft (2015) and Brissett was a third-rounder in his (2016).

Either way, I saw very little evidence he is the poor man's Patrick Mahomes that I've heard floated around in the last month or so.

Fantasy football-wise, Winston in Tampa would be Mahomes-like... NFL-wise, Winston was Jay Cutler-like, and why he's no longer in Tampa and will not be a starter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

I get the question was rhetorical, but I'd also add that Winston was the No. 1 overall pick in his draft (2015) and Brissett was a third-rounder in his year (2016).

Either way, I saw very little evidence he is the poor man's Patrick Mahomes that I've heard floated around in the last month or so.

fair enough, but if you look at Winston's stats its not that hard to see why he was a first round pick.

Dude threw for 5000 yards.

if a coach could reduce the turnovers  to less than one per game without losing the yardage, he'd be a pro bowler.  Even now, there are likely a few coaches who think they may be able to coach some of the turnovers away without losing much in the way of overall production.

Its easy to see where the maximum of his potential lies.   

Even in Winstons case, 5000 yard passers dont grow on trees.   and at the draft table many people draft based on the high water mark of their potential rather than where they will likely produce for most of their career.

As QB is the position most highly overvalued at the draft table a guy like this showing great potential is likely drafted in the first half of round 1 even though he probably should be a day 2 pick based on the risk factors.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not asking this question rhetorically, but other than Todd McShay, who might be the worst judge of QB talent of anyone who gets paid to opine on the subject I've ever seen, who is floating Love as a "poor man's Mahomie?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, jrokh said:

I'm not asking this question rhetorically, but other than Todd McShay, who might be the worst judge of QB talent of anyone who gets paid to opine on the subject I've ever seen, who is floating Love as a "poor man's Mahomie?

I've heard/seen it said a few times, either by folks on Sirius XM or in print. I don't remember exactly who or when I heard it and didn't take much note of it because I hadn't broke him down yet. I read something a day or so ago about a scout saying Tua is a "left-handed Mahomes" as well. He's not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Ray_T said:

fair enough, but if you look at Winston's stats its not that hard to see why he was a first round pick.

Dude threw for 5000 yards.

if a coach could reduce the turnovers  to less than one per game without losing the yardage, he'd be a pro bowler.  Even now, there are likely a few coaches who think they may be able to coach some of the turnovers away without losing much in the way of overall production.

Its easy to see where the maximum of his potential lies.   

Even in Winstons case, 5000 yard passers dont grow on trees.   and at the draft table many people draft based on the high water mark of their potential rather than where they will likely produce for most of their career.

As QB is the position most highly overvalued at the draft table a guy like this showing great potential is likely drafted in the first half of round 1 even though he probably should be a day 2 pick based on the risk factors.

 

 

The comp was actually a favorable one IMO. Winston has obvious upside, as you suggest, and I think Love could eventually become a better version of Jameis if ever learns to stop trusting his arm so much. I just can't get over how many times he threw it right at a linebacker in zone coverage. Some of those were nice plays by the LB, but you've got to be able to see the one guy with the best chance to make a play on the ball.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Football Guru said:

you've got to be able to see the one guy with the best chance to make a play on the ball.

Didn't Winston just undergo Lasik surgery to improve his eyesight?

Maybe he goes from Charlie Sheen to Wild Thing...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Didn't Winston just undergo Lasik surgery to improve his eyesight?

Maybe he goes from Charlie Sheen to Wild Thing...

I was talking about Love not seeing the LB ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Didn't Winston just undergo Lasik surgery to improve his eyesight?

Maybe he goes from Charlie Sheen to Wild Thing...

I guess this is the wildcard.

did this play a major role in all the INT's he threw?

hard to say.    maybe from 20-30 yards away, the players numbers appear slightly fuzzy but you are hitting the same target, but you should still see the Linebacker 3-4 yards in front of your WR even if he is fuzzy.

I could see it affecting his depth perception on some deeper (30+ yard) throws.  

What I dont know is what type of throws were picked most of the time.   I guess if I'm bored I'll go watch some tape.  I'm sure I can find tape on all the INT's he threw.

but one thing I will say for sure.... I find it hard to believe this should have been a major factor in any short throw INT's.   Unless his eyesight was beyond bad.  in which case, it is a miracle he was able to throw for the 5000 yards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I'm sure I can find tape on all the INT's he threw.

Here you go...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You’d think the eyesight issue would have been resolved earlier. Even at 20/30 the different color jersey should be visible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, DrG said:

You’d think the eyesight issue would have been resolved earlier. Even at 20/30 the different color jersey should be visible.

Colors should be visible, yes, but with indistinct focus, depth perception could suffer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

and with the 32nd pick in the nfl draft...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

True re depth perception. If Tampa didn’t bother to check his eyesight every year (hard to imagine), or he wouldn’t do lasik (until now) well ... someone sat on it too long ...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

“I just can’t get over how many times he threw it right at a linebacker in zone coverage ... you’ve got to be able to see the one guy ...”

This quote has to be put up on an NFL draft board somewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like Love.  Im not sure where he will go in the NFL draft.  Sometimes QBs fly and he could end up going top 15.  But he is the type of QB the NFL is going to.  A guy like Eason is not and isnt worth drafting anywhere near Love.  

Love has great upside but is just more raw than the others.  He was playing with lesser cast of players and lesser coaching at Utah St than Burrow. Tua. Or Herbert.  

He is the perfect middle to back of the 1st round QB in my opinion.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

I like Love.  Im not sure where he will go in the NFL draft.  Sometimes QBs fly and he could end up going top 15.  But he is the type of QB the NFL is going to.  A guy like Eason is not and isnt worth drafting anywhere near Love.  

Love has great upside but is just more raw than the others.  He was playing with lesser cast of players and lesser coaching at Utah St than Burrow. Tua. Or Herbert.  

He is the perfect middle to back of the 1st round QB in my opinion.

 

Agree with a lot of what you said.

I think most people assume Love's supporting cast is the primary (only?) reason he had high INT totals last season. He made a lot of bad decisions (ones I think I spotlighted in the examples I provided in the profile), and he certainly didn't look athletic enough to me to suggest he can go to an RPO-heavy offense and smooth out some of the early rough spots. I haven't evaluated Hurts yet, but I get the feeling I"m going to like him more than I did Love.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Agree with a lot of what you said.

I think most people assume Love's supporting cast is the primary (only?) reason he had high INT totals last season. He made a lot of bad decisions (ones I think I spotlighted in the examples I provided in the profile), and he certainly didn't look athletic enough to me to suggest he can go to an RPO-heavy offense and smooth out some of the early rough spots. I haven't evaluated Hurts yet, but I get the feeling I"m going to like him more than I did Love.

Im not comparing them other than legs. (Like the other guy I havent really heard Pat Mahomes comparisons)

But I think he moves well enough like Mahomes.  

Yeah he made some bad decisions.  Young talented QBs with modest coaching and feeling like they have to play superman for their modestly talented team tend to do that.  Most all of their success or failure came on the shoulders of Love.  Cant really be said for the others with multiple high round WRs and RBs.  Olines.  Elite Div 1 coaching.  

He isnt a guy Im trying to draft and say well boys we have our franchise.  But his upside is undeniable.  His skills translate to what works in thr NFL right now.  Moving around.  Throwing on the run.  Being able to make a ton of different throws from different positions.  I think he has all of the skills of the top 3 guys.  Hes just rough around the edges so he goes 20 picks later.  Which I have no problem with.  He probably has more upside than the other 3 guys.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/4/2020 at 9:48 AM, listen2me 23 said:

Im not comparing them other than legs. (Like the other guy I havent really heard Pat Mahomes comparisons)

But I think he moves well enough like Mahomes.  

Yeah he made some bad decisions.  Young talented QBs with modest coaching and feeling like they have to play superman for their modestly talented team tend to do that.  Most all of their success or failure came on the shoulders of Love.  Cant really be said for the others with multiple high round WRs and RBs.  Olines.  Elite Div 1 coaching.  

He isnt a guy Im trying to draft and say well boys we have our franchise.  But his upside is undeniable.  His skills translate to what works in thr NFL right now.  Moving around.  Throwing on the run.  Being able to make a ton of different throws from different positions.  I think he has all of the skills of the top 3 guys.  Hes just rough around the edges so he goes 20 picks later.  Which I have no problem with.  He probably has more upside than the other 3 guys.  

First off, I just got done with CeeDee Lamb's profile yesterday, and I think it's safe to say I'll be keeping Love ahead of Hurts.

I would agree he moves similar to Mahomes, although I think Mahomes moves a bit better. As for his bad decisions (or desire to be Superman), please take a couple of minutes to look at the clips in my first concern for Love. I have seven clips on that bullet point, and I think at least five of them were him not seeing the underneath LB or ignoring him.

He has nice testing numbers for a QB, but I probably watched 10 of his games and I did not see his testing numbers carry over to the field.

I agree with you on what works in today's NFL. I'd say he has similar upside to the top three, but he also has a scary floor that I don't think the others do (unless you are scared about Tua's durability like I am). Get him Andy Reid-type coaching and he'll be just fine. Send him to a place where he can't redshirt and/or has a leaky offensive line and I think he is going to struggle a lot more than someone like Burrow or Tua.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With the addition of Laviska Shenault Jr., that will be wrap for the individual profiles. Doug's going to rank 30 or so of the top prospects, which I think he's going to post on the forums on Thursday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×