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Covid in your state? Up or down?

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80 cases here. 1 in my county but she worked at the court house so no telling how many people she came in contact with 

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On 3/18/2020 at 11:07 AM, Bert said:

2 deaths in Texas.  2 - a 77 year old and a 90 year old.  The regular flu would most likely have also killed them and we never would have heard anything about it.  Just like the other 20,000 that have died of the regular flu this year.

The news went bonkers with the 90s year old man (who was actually in his upper 90s) dying from this. 

Just unbelievable. :doh:

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we had 50- 80 then 120 yesterday and have 336 now out of 2k tests.  only 5% of the people infected are 80 and over which is the key demo for death here.  That being said in 3 -4 days we are going to have probably 3-4k cases here in michigan. 

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Up to 119 in ohio from 88 yesterday..as more people get tested

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30 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

we had 50- 80 then 120 yesterday and have 336 now out of 2k tests.  only 5% of the people infected are 80 and over which is the key demo for death here.  That being said in 3 -4 days we are going to have probably 3-4k cases here in michigan. 

This is my spreadsheet for metro Detroit.

Day 1                                                            1.00
Day 2                                                            2.20
Day 3                                                            4.84
Day 4                                                          10.65
Day 5                                                          23.43
Day 6                                                          51.54
Day 7                                                       113.38
Day 8                                                       249.44
Day 9                                                       548.76
Day 10                                                    1,207.27
Day 11                                                    2,655.99
Day 12                                                    5,843.18
Day 13                                                 12,855.00
Day 14                                                 28,281.01
Day 15                                                 62,218.21
Day 16                                               136,880.07
Day 17                                               301,136.15
Day 18                                               662,499.53
Day 19                                           1,457,498.96
Day 20                                           3,206,497.72

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1 minute ago, Cdub100 said:

This is my spreadsheet for metro Detroit.

Day 1                                                            1.00
Day 2                                                            2.20
Day 3                                                            4.84
Day 4                                                          10.65
Day 5                                                          23.43
Day 6                                                          51.54
Day 7                                                       113.38
Day 8                                                       249.44
Day 9                                                       548.76
Day 10                                                    1,207.27
Day 11                                                    2,655.99
Day 12                                                    5,843.18
Day 13                                                 12,855.00
Day 14                                                 28,281.01
Day 15                                                 62,218.21
Day 16                                               136,880.07
Day 17                                               301,136.15
Day 18                                               662,499.53
Day 19                                           1,457,498.96
Day 20                                           3,206,497.72

Whittmer declares martial law on sunday is my bet. or at least a shelter in place order. I have been isolated for a week now with the exception of a 10 min heavily sanitized grocery trip a few days back. 

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2 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

Whittmer declares martial law on sunday is my bet. or at least a shelter in place order. I have been isolated for a week now with the exception of a 10 min heavily sanitized grocery trip a few days back. 

My concern is people see the Michigan spreadsheet and think dude only 300 people out of millions? This is so stupid to do what we are doing. What they don't understand is the chart is behind by 5 day. Want to know how many are walking around today? Look at my chart (I have us at day 8, so add 5 days). I estimate 12k people in the metro area alone infected and just don't know it. In 2 weeks pretty much everyone will have it. Unless we continue to take drastic efforts. 

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Arizona is interesting; no business shutdowns at the state or county level, just city.  Earlier this week Phoenix (mine), Tucson, and Flagstaff ordered restaurant dine-in/bar/gym/etc. closures.  Tempe added on today.  But the Phoenix City Council is pushing back against the mayor's decree and may seek to overturn it.  Also I can drive an extra two minutes and be in Chandler which, if I understand correctly, the bars and restaurants are still open (or at least not ordered closed).  Which means more concentration of people there?

This kind of reminds me of the smoking ban from a few decades ago.  That started as a city decision until people realized that was untenable; eventually it became statewide.  

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We reached 336 people in the last 4 days. from 50 statewide.  The person who has in in Jackson was a probation agent. No telling how many people she touched before they found out she had it . In oakland county alone there is going to be 1500 cases by sunday

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2 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

We reached 336 people in the last 4 days. from 50 statewide.  The person who has in in Jackson was a probation agent. No telling how many people she touched before they found out she had it . In oakland county alone there is going to be 1500 cases by sunday

Very possible for Oakland.

Metro Detroit est.

Sunday Day 11                                                    2,655.99

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Living in the sticks don't look so bad now, does it?  :banana:

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1 hour ago, Cdub100 said:

This is my spreadsheet for metro Detroit.

Day 1                                                            1.00
Day 2                                                            2.20
Day 3                                                            4.84
Day 4                                                          10.65
Day 5                                                          23.43
Day 6                                                          51.54
Day 7                                                       113.38
Day 8                                                       249.44
Day 9                                                       548.76
Day 10                                                    1,207.27
Day 11                                                    2,655.99
Day 12                                                    5,843.18
Day 13                                                 12,855.00
Day 14                                                 28,281.01
Day 15                                                 62,218.21
Day 16                                               136,880.07
Day 17                                               301,136.15
Day 18                                               662,499.53
Day 19                                           1,457,498.96
Day 20                                           3,206,497.72

Wow.  You're mom sure gets around.

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18 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

Very possible for Oakland.

Metro Detroit est.

Sunday Day 11                                                    2,655.99

“But I also know that if we don’t take this aggressive action, that this community spread will threaten more lives in Michigan,” she said. " ... These actions that we’ve taken, as things evolve and as things change so quickly, there may be necessity for additional actions ... and I would anticipate that there will be additional actions but I’m not going to announce anything at this moment." Governor Whitmer

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I posted this in another thread (or this one, there are so many) and didn't get a response; you guys are missing out on some great data.  The link below shows real-time fever data from a network of Smart Thermometers, and is weeks ahead of CDC data collection.  It has identified both flu spikes ahead of time, and I believe also a Covid situation that wasn't previously known.  My county (Maricopa) had a large spike yesterday so I'll be watching it.

https://healthweather.us/

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4 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

MA just had our first death.  A man in his 80's

Don't go to Yahoo.  They seem hell bent on telling you about every young strong man that gets it and has horrible, life threatening reactions.

Just to keep you scared----and clicking

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14 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

I posted this in another thread (or this one, there are so many) and didn't get a response; you guys are missing out on some great data.  The link below shows real-time fever data from a network of Smart Thermometers, and is weeks ahead of CDC data collection.  It has identified both flu spikes ahead of time, and I believe also a Covid situation that wasn't previously known.  My county (Maricopa) had a large spike yesterday so I'll be watching it.

https://healthweather.us/

 

I spent 10 minutes looking at it yesterday, but I am not sure what to make of it. Why is California all grey and the Seattle area having insufficient data.

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2 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Don't go to Yahoo.  They seem hell bent on telling you about every young strong man that gets it and has horrible, life threatening reactions.

Just to keep you scared----and clicking

I am paying attention to the Michigan corona virus website.  Yahoo is always trash. They are a gossip rag

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1 minute ago, kilroy69 said:

I am paying attention to the Michigan corona virus website.  Yahoo is always trash. They are a gossip rag

Hey whats that site?  I only have nationwide stuff

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Just now, supermike80 said:

Thanks!

NP. if you look at the spike from yesterday and the fact that whittmer has scheduled a press conference for 430 and I am guessing she is going to declare martial law or an shelter in place order 

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1 minute ago, kilroy69 said:

NP. if you look at the spike from yesterday and the fact that whittmer has scheduled a press conference for 430 and I am guessing she is going to declare martial law or an shelter in place order 

She said she wasnt gonna order a shelter in place but if she was gonna do it, over the weekend is a good time

Might as well

 

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2 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

She said she wasnt gonna order a shelter in place but if she was gonna do it, over the weekend is a good time

Might as well

 

She said that yesterday. When asked about it today at her 9am presser she said this 

 

 

I know that if we don’t take this aggressive action, that this community spread will threaten more lives in Michigan,” she said. " ... These actions that we’ve taken, as things evolve and as things change so quickly, there may be necessity for additional actions ... and I would anticipate that there will be additional actions but I’m not going to announce anything at this moment." Governor Whitmer

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

I spent 10 minutes looking at it yesterday, but I am not sure what to make of it. Why is California all grey and the Seattle area having insufficient data.

California is mostly gray on the "Atypical Illness" tab because those areas have registered flu-like fevers which are within a statistical range close to normal for this type of year.  It appears that if the data is ever above the standard deviation, it registers as orange on the map. 

Areas of Washington may not have enough thermometer data to be statistically significant.

Click on your county, or enter your zip code, then scroll down.  You'll see the average fever readings and deviation band over time, I presume decreasing as we exit flu season.  If you see an upward trend, in a few days you can reasonably expect higher Covid cases reported.  :cheers:

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Went from 330 to 549.  that is not as fast as I thought it would be

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4 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

She said that yesterday. When asked about it today at her 9am presser she said this 

 

 

I know that if we don’t take this aggressive action, that this community spread will threaten more lives in Michigan,” she said. " ... These actions that we’ve taken, as things evolve and as things change so quickly, there may be necessity for additional actions ... and I would anticipate that there will be additional actions but I’m not going to announce anything at this moment." Governor Whitmer

 

 

 

Weren't these sort of spikes expected now that more testing is being done?

13,000+ cases with 185 deaths nationwide as of today.  How does that compare to China and Italy per capita?

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nj +155 today. not that bad. and most in the northern counties.

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1 hour ago, kilroy69 said:

Went from 330 to 549.  that is not as fast as I thought it would be

Did you not look at my spreadsheet? Tomorrow should be 1,207 and then it really starts to ramp up.

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3 hours ago, vuduchile said:

Weren't these sort of spikes expected now that more testing is being done?

13,000+ cases with 185 deaths nationwide as of today.  How does that compare to China and Italy per capita?

I came here to post that they are able to test more people and get faster results this week, hence the curve will be rising. Also heard from 2 totally unrelated sources with military connections that Michigan will announce the shelter in place this weekend starting Tuesday. National Guard is training now for it. Just some second hand hearsay for now...

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7 minutes ago, nospk said:

I came here to post that they are able to test more people and get faster results this week, hence the curve will be rising. Also heard from 2 totally unrelated sources with military connections that Michigan will announce the shelter in place this weekend starting Tuesday. National Guard is training now for it. Just some second hand hearsay for now...

These are sooooooooooooooo focking dumb and I'm sick of it.  How is the  national guard going to enforce this? They  going to run down a Buick Enclave on the road only to find out it was a grandma headed to the grocery store? Wonderful use of resources.  

Please...pretty please use some common sense.  A shelter in place is certainly possible but the national guard isnt needed to enforce it. 

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5 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

These are sooooooooooooooo focking dumb and I'm sick of it.  How is the  national guard going to enforce this? They  going to run down a Buick Enclave on the road only to find out it was a grandma headed to the grocery store? Wonderful use of resources.  

Please...pretty please use some common sense.  A shelter in place is certainly possible but the national guard isnt needed to enforce it. 

I heard the NG will be used to support the temporary hospitals they will erect.

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7 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I heard the NG will be used to support the temporary hospitals they will erect.

That's fine.  And to distribute food etc.  And I'm not naive enough to not realize that is a good shield in case more military intervention is necessary.  

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11 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

These are sooooooooooooooo focking dumb and I'm sick of it.  How is the  national guard going to enforce this? They  going to run down a Buick Enclave on the road only to find out it was a grandma headed to the grocery store? Wonderful use of resources.  

Please...pretty please use some common sense.  A shelter in place is certainly possible but the national guard isnt needed to enforce it. 

Correct.   National guard isn’t gonna get involved in these state “shelter in place” orders.   They shouldn’t even be calling them that.  

They should just call it what it really is. A shutdown of all non-essential businesses   

Even the cops aren’t gonna do much to try to keep people at home.  People need groceries, medicine, etc    
 

Trucks will run, grocery stores will be open and so on   

 

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No one wants to call it what it is. Once the first governor declares martial law they all will 

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