Big Ben Time Out in the Burgh?

[Ironmen 14]

Great read and being a native die hard from the burgh I would take either one minus Dalton for obvious reasons....maybe lean a little towards Jameis over Cam....thank you Tampa BrAdY.

https://www.ibtimes.com/nfl-predictions-jameis-winston-cam-newton-andy-dalton-could-join-steelers-chargers-2948186

 

 

[weepaws 2,452]

Personally I wouldn’t want any of them if I’m the Steelers.  

I think the Chargers and Pats need to take a look at them.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

If the Steelers want to be 7-9 every year and miss the playoffs, then they should certainly sign Winston.

[Ironmen 14]

Even though not a big follower of TB....pretty sure they were 9-7 in 2016 with Jameis at the helm.

Not saying that is great...but to say he can't or hasn't led a team to .500 or better is bogus.

Anyway good luck with Tampa BrAdY....

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

LOL, you hang on to that.

[Ironmen 14]

9 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

LOL, you hang on to that.

Facts are easy to hang on to.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

1 hour ago, Ironmen said:

Facts are easy to hang on to.

His career record as a starter is 28-42.  Yeah, Tampa's had defenses in the past that weren't good, but they were near the middle of the pack... but Winston's inability to be a good QB was the reason the perception of the defenses were terrible.  Now, under Lovie in 2015, the defense was terrible, but they weren't all that bad after that.  Winston's play, made the team worse than what they were.

[weepaws 2,452]

He’s had some good ff seasons. 

But I wouldn’t take him as my starting nfl Qb, unless I have the two WRs like Bucs currently have.  

Hes not a friend to tes.  

[DrG 94]

The physical talent is there. The ability to consistently read the defense and avoid costly momentum turnovers is not.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

13 hours ago, DrG said:

The physical talent is there. The ability to consistently read the defense and avoid costly momentum turnovers is not.

 

Exactly right.  He's Jay Cutler really.  He can make all the throws you need, but the processing just isn't there.  He's a terrible decision maker.  He will make any team he's on, worse.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

16 hours ago, weepaws said:

He’s had some good ff seasons. 

But I wouldn’t take him as my starting nfl Qb, unless I have the two WRs like Bucs currently have.  

Hes not a friend to tes.  

That's not true at all.  Cameron Brate was a top 7 TE before Howard got there.  Howard and Brate last year put up TE7 numbers as a combined tandem.  The problem in Tampa last year was that Howard was needed to stay in and block and both were good enough to be on the field.

[weepaws 2,452]

Last year they avg 4 ff points per game between the two of them, that’s not top seven. In 2016 Brate was number one with 8 tds for tes , But he was 12 in targets and 12 in yardage, and that was his HOF season n

I’ll stick to my right statement, Winston is no friend to tes. 

Thanks. 

[jrokh 567]

I am not, and have little interest in being an expert on anything that has to do with Tampa Bay, with the possible exception of their strip clubs. Having said that, isn't it more likely that Arians Offensive philosophy has more to do with the TE production than the QB?

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

They combined for 70 receptions, 770 yards, and 5 TD's.  In PPR leagues, that's 177 fantasy points.  Jared Cook had 167.5 points and was TE7 last year.  In 2018, (Howard finished TE10), but the two combined for 64 receptions, 854 yards, and 11 TD's equating to 215.4 points, which would be TE5.  Teams don't have 2 TE's with the caliber that the Bucs have, so their potential hampers the other (fantasy-wise).  In 2017, Brate was TE10 and Howard was TE21... their combined total would be TE1.  Howard, being TE21, was the highest rated TE among teams with 2 TE's in the top 30 and he was 21 points higher than the guy (Trey Burton), behind him.

In short, you've had a Buccaneer finish as a starting TE in 3 of the last 4 years and last year, their combined totals was top 7 (with a coach/OC that didn't feature a TE).  Winston's targets TE's.  If he goes to a team that has a featured TE, that TE will be starter worthy... guaranteed.

[weepaws 2,452]

The two tes in non ppr combine for a avg of 4 points per game. 

Not top seven.  

 

[weepaws 2,452]

Cook and J Hill had 169 non ppr points. 

Brate and Howard had 106.  

Since we are combining them let’s do it for both teams.  

 

[weepaws 2,452]

3 hours ago, jrokh said:

I am not, and have little interest in being an expert on anything that has to do with Tampa Bay, with the possible exception of their strip clubs. Having said that, isn't it more likely that Arians Offensive philosophy has more to do with the TE production than the QB?

Sure. Same number of games for the two tes 2018 and 2019, Bucs tes had 13 more targets under Arians then in 2018  

Or it could be both, mmmm. 

Thanks. 

[jrokh 567]

31 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Sure. Same number of games for the two tes 2018 and 2019, Bucs tes had 13 more targets under Arians then in 2018  

Or it could be both, mmmm. 

Thanks. 

Alright, I crunched the numbers in half ppr to split the difference. Using my advanced mathematical formula the results show that Brate was TE # 23, and Howard # 29. When you combine both of their numbers you do get TE #7. However, if you combined the numbers of most teams TE's, which I have little interest in doing, I am confident they would be outside the top 12. So the winner of this little debate is weepaws, because the TB TE's did in fact, stink last year in Fantasy (and reality).

[Phil Simms 11 127]

I don't understand why combined TE stats of Tampa Bay are being compared with the stats of individual players? 

 

For reference, FFToday has the total TE stats here

https://www.fftoday.com/stats/fantasystats.php?Season=2019&GameWeek=Season&PosID=40&Side=Scored

 

Team TE for Tampa Bay ranks at 18th in the league, not sure what FFToday scoring format is. 

 

 

 

[Phil Simms 11 127]

Why don't we do the same with WRs? 

 

Chris Conley is the #1 WR in fantasy because the Jax WRs combined for 25.4 points per game, destroying Michael Thomas who only scores 14.1 per game as an individual. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

You guys are missing the point.  The main reason for this tangent is because the comment was made that Winston doesn't throw to his TE's... and that's just wrong.  It's not a misunderstanding, misconception, or oversight... it's flat out wrong.  No team in the NFL has two receivers who are 1,300 yard receivers and two TE's who can put up 600+ yards.  If the Bucs had only 1 TE, that player would be a 70 reception, 900 yard, 8 TD player (plus or minus).

Proof: 2016 & 2018.  In 2016, Brate had 57 rec, 660 yards, and 8 TD's in 15 games.  In the first 2 games he played only 40% of the offensive snaps where as the rest of the year he averaged around 65%.  If you pro-rate his season to him playing 65% of the snaps, he'd have 66 reception, 840 yards, and 10 TD's.  Even still, in that season, Brate was still TE6.  In 2018, Howard, in 10 games, had 34 rec, 565 yards, and 5 and still finished as TE10.  The fact that the TE's weren't higher and there more often is an indictment on their availability, not Winston refusing to target them.  Brate and Howard both missed games to injury... Howard more so than Brate, but also, because of the fact that when healthy, they're both their limiting each others targets.

Now, if you want to say that the Bucs only had two 1,000 yard WR's last year and not years past, I will point out 2018 where Evans, Godwin, Jackson, and Humphries combined for just under 4.000 yards, which averages out to FOUR 1,000 yard receivers.  Only one-third of the leagues QB's that year even totaled 4,000 yards... Winston/Fitzpatrick did that with just 4 players.  Look, Winston is a bad NFL QB, but a great fantasy QB.  If you have a TE and only two other top pass catchers... not 3, 4, or 5, then that TE will produce quality starting numbers.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

17 hours ago, jrokh said:

Alright, I crunched the numbers in half ppr to split the difference. Using my advanced mathematical formula the results show that Brate was TE # 23, and Howard # 29. When you combine both of their numbers you do get TE #7. However, if you combined the numbers of most teams TE's, which I have little interest in doing, I am confident they would be outside the top 12. So the winner of this little debate is weepaws, because the TB TE's did in fact, stink last year in Fantasy (and reality).

That's not because of Winston though, which is @weepaws argument.  That was system, game plan, and team make-up... not Winston refusing to target them.

[weepaws 2,452]

Personally I think it could be the system also, not just Winston. 

I just made a statement that he’s not Te friendly and I still believe that. 

But hey it’s all good, I might be wrong , but I think Winston doesn’t target te much, I don’t think he refuses to do so, I think he looks for that big play on every play  which is why he post good ff points and also tosses a lot of ints. 

It’s all good and fun chat.  

Thanks everyone. 

Its a lot better then just watching the news all day. 

 

[Phil Simms 11 127]

21 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

You guys are missing the point.  The main reason for this tangent is because the comment was made that Winston doesn't throw to his TE's... and that's just wrong.  It's not a misunderstanding, misconception, or oversight... it's flat out wrong.  No team in the NFL has two receivers who are 1,300 yard receivers and two TE's who can put up 600+ yards.  If the Bucs had only 1 TE, that player would be a 70 reception, 900 yard, 8 TD player (plus or minus).

Proof: 2016 & 2018.  In 2016, Brate had 57 rec, 660 yards, and 8 TD's in 15 games.  In the first 2 games he played only 40% of the offensive snaps where as the rest of the year he averaged around 65%.  If you pro-rate his season to him playing 65% of the snaps, he'd have 66 reception, 840 yards, and 10 TD's.  Even still, in that season, Brate was still TE6.  In 2018, Howard, in 10 games, had 34 rec, 565 yards, and 5 and still finished as TE10.  The fact that the TE's weren't higher and there more often is an indictment on their availability, not Winston refusing to target them.  Brate and Howard both missed games to injury... Howard more so than Brate, but also, because of the fact that when healthy, they're both their limiting each others targets.

Now, if you want to say that the Bucs only had two 1,000 yard WR's last year and not years past, I will point out 2018 where Evans, Godwin, Jackson, and Humphries combined for just under 4.000 yards, which averages out to FOUR 1,000 yard receivers.  Only one-third of the leagues QB's that year even totaled 4,000 yards... Winston/Fitzpatrick did that with just 4 players.  Look, Winston is a bad NFL QB, but a great fantasy QB.  If you have a TE and only two other top pass catchers... not 3, 4, or 5, then that TE will produce quality starting numbers.

I did not think the comparison of combined TE to other individual TEs made sense, however, you are correct in that Winston has used the TE before. It looks like every year of Winston's career that Tampa was in top 12 of TE points with last year being the exception. In 2018 they were 6th, 2017 were 3rd. 

https://www.fftoday.com/stats/fantasystats.php?Season=2018&GameWeek=Season&PosID=40&Side=Scored&LeagueID=

 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

2 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

I did not think the comparison of combined TE to other individual TEs made sense, however, you are correct in that Winston has used the TE before. It looks like every year of Winston's career that Tampa was in top 12 of TE points with last year being the exception. In 2018 they were 6th, 2017 were 3rd. 

https://www.fftoday.com/stats/fantasystats.php?Season=2018&GameWeek=Season&PosID=40&Side=Scored&LeagueID=

 

 

The reasoning was based on the fact that not only did the Bucs have 2 quality TE's, they had anywhere from 2 to 4 quality receivers over the years.  That makeup for a pass catching corp is extremely rare.  Specifically for last year, Godwin, Evans, and Perriman combined for just short of 3000 yards.  Even with a 5000 yard season from their QB, how many would you expect from 2 TE's?  Brate and Howard were both 4th and 5th in targets and yards on the team.  My point was, and remains, had only 1 of them been there, the result would have been a top 7 TE.  Teams with top 7/10 TE's don't generally have 3 other target monsters.

 

Last year, top 10 non-PPR TE's and their teams target share leaders...

1. Travis Kelce (136) - Sammy Watkins (90) & Tyreek Hill (89)
2. Mark Andrews (98) - Marquise Brown (71) & Willie Snead (46)
3. George Kittle (107) - Deebo Samuel (81) & Emmanuel Sanders (53)
4. Zach Ertz (135) - Dallas Goedert (87) & Alshon Jeffery (73)
5. Darren Waller (117) - Hunter Renfrow (71) & Tyrell Williams (64)
6. Jared Cook (65) - Michael Thomas (185) & Alvin Kamara (97)
7. Austin Hooper (97) -  Julio Jones (157) & Calvin Ridley (93)
8. Hunter Henry (76) - Keenan Allen (149) & Austin Ekeler (108)
9. Dallas Goedert (87) - See #4 Zach Ertz
10. Tyler Higbee (83) - Robert Woods (139) & Cooper Kupp (134)

Of the top 10, 7 TE's were their teams' #1 or #2 most targeted pass catcher.  Only Hunter Henry was 4th (as Henry and Higbee were 3rd), in target share... the next closest TE on the team was Virgil Green with only 13 targets.  Godwin, Evans, and Perriman combined for 308 targets.  Back to my main point (adding the two together), had only 1 of Brate or Howard been on the team, that TE would have been a legit starting fantasy TE and disproving the statement that Winston does not throw to TE's.

 

[jrokh 567]

19 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Back to my main point (adding the two together), had only 1 of Brate or Howard been on the team, that TE would have been a legit starting fantasy TE and disproving the statement that Winston does not throw to TE's.

The problem with this is how many teams # 1 TE wouldn't have greatly benefitted from the removal of the # 2 TE? In order to determine that either Brate or Howard would have "been a legit starting fantasy TE", you would need to establish the baseline number of points that would meet that criteria, and then arbitrarily apply that to every team in the league. To put it more simply and definitely more sophomorically, ' If its and buts were candy and nuts, every day would be Christmas"...

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

30 minutes ago, jrokh said:

The problem with this is how many teams # 1 TE wouldn't have greatly benefitted from the removal of the # 2 TE? In order to determine that either Brate or Howard would have "been a legit starting fantasy TE", you would need to establish the baseline number of points that would meet that criteria, and then arbitrarily apply that to every team in the league. To put it more simply and definitely more sophomorically, ' If its and buts were candy and nuts, every day would be Christmas"...

I'd say that the answer to your question is "very few" or "very rarely".  I mean, I can't think of a time where I've ever said that.  I guess argument could have been made with Ertz and Goedert, but while the Eagles' WR corp blows chunks, they're both starter worthy already.  I mean, go look at the guys who finished outside of the top 10 and see if anyone legitimately fits that profile.  Both Brate and Howard have finished in the top 10 in TE's, so they clearly have the potential.  I looked at the top TE's over the last 5 years and I didn't see any TE that would fit that criteria.  The only times where you'd get the idea of that, was a year when that TE got hurt and only played like 10 games or so.

[Smileseers 54]

The Steelers have not had a losing record since 2003.  Winston is an obvious upgrade over Rudolph and Hodges.  

Winston led the league in passing yards and interceptions in 2019. Roethlisberger was first in both categories in 2018.

This two TE comparison could carry on with Ebron and McDonald. 

[Ironmen 14]

On 4/3/2020 at 8:31 PM, Smileseers said:

The Steelers have not had a losing record since 2003.  Winston is an obvious upgrade over Rudolph and Hodges.  

Winston led the league in passing yards and interceptions in 2019. Roethlisberger was first in both categories in 2018.

This two TE comparison could carry on with Ebron and McDonald. 

More facts.

Nonsense over?

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

On 4/3/2020 at 11:31 PM, Smileseers said:

The Steelers have not had a losing record since 2003.  Winston is an obvious upgrade over Rudolph and Hodges.  

Winston led the league in passing yards and interceptions in 2019. Roethlisberger was first in both categories in 2018.

This two TE comparison could carry on with Ebron and McDonald. 

Rudolph and Mason have a career 8-6 record, Winston is 28-42.  LOL, yeah, real upgrade.

From a fantasy perspective, Winston will put up numbers... from an NFL perspective, he'll get you more L's than W's.

[Ray_T 587]

Looking at the record isnt necessarily the fairest comparison.    

Pittsburgh is a very good organization and the Steelers have been a very good team (with or without Rothlisberger)

Tampa has not.

certainly Winston has been a part of that, but I'd argue up until last season, they have not had great coaching, and the team as a whole just hasnt been that good.

I'm not defending Winston.  I'm just saying we are not comparing apples to apples in the method we are using to compare.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

3 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Looking at the record isnt necessarily the fairest comparison.    

Pittsburgh is a very good organization and the Steelers have been a very good team (with or without Rothlisberger)

Tampa has not.

certainly Winston has been a part of that, but I'd argue up until last season, they have not had great coaching, and the team as a whole just hasnt been that good.

I'm not defending Winston.  I'm just saying we are not comparing apples to apples in the method we are using to compare.

Yeah, Tampa did not have that great of a defense, but Winston compounded the issue.  If you look at the DVOA's for Tampa's defenses over the past few years, they're in the middle to high teens.  But, if you look at their rankings, they're in the mid to high 20's.  That's what Winston does.  He literally makes your team worse.  He turns the ball over a lot, not just INT's, but fumbles also.  He's constantly putting the defense in a negative situation by taking sacks at bad times and forcing many 3-and-outs with punts being kicked from inside the Bucs' 30 yard line regularly.

For example, last year the Bucs' DVOA over the last 8 games was 7th, but yardage and points-wise, they were 14th.  In that span, Winston threw 21 Int's and fumbled twice and the Bucs amassed a 5-3 record.  If Winston just tuned the ball over 14 times instead of 23, the Bucs probably finish 9-7.  Now, the conventional wisdom would say that 9-7 doesn't get you in the playoffs, but that's just the last 8 games.  For example, in game 1, Winston threw 2 pick 6's against the Niners, as well as another pick, and the Bucs lost by 16.  In the game against the Giants, he was only able to complete 35% of his passes and getting 4 first downs in the second half.  He took 3 sacks on 3rd downs forcing punts.  On one drive where they got the ball near mid field, they got about 20 yards and he threw a pick.

Bottom line, Winston makes your team worse.  His play constantly puts your defense in bad positions, puts your offense in more predictable positions, and puts your special teams in disadvantaged situations.  He is THE reason the Bucs' record was as bad as it was over the last 5 seasons.  At worst, an average QB would've been at least. 500 during the time where he was .400.

[Law 220]

On 3/29/2020 at 4:01 PM, Ironmen said:

Great read and being a native die hard from the burgh I would take either one minus Dalton for obvious reasons....maybe lean a little towards Jameis over Cam....

 

I'd be happy with Jameis in Pittsburgh. Ben says he'll be back, but there's no guarantee and he's flirted with retirement for years. Winston would be a great backup plan IF Ben doesn't make it back. FAR better than the disaster they had at QB last year. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

Apparently people just look at yards and TD's with regards to Winston and not pay attention to the fact that he's got a sub .500 record.  I know people like to blame the defense, but the problem is, Winston makes your team worse than what it is.  Right now, is a perfect example of evidence that this is true.  Last year, the Bucs were 7-9.  The ONLY real addition the Bucs made at this point in time, is Brady.  According to Vegas, the Bucs are tied with 2 other NFC teams that are 2nd in the most likely NFC Super Bowl representative.  Meaning, the Bucs are being expected to win anywhere from 10 to 12+ wins, and basically saying that the Bucs' team has 10+ win potential where as with Winston, they were able to only win 7.

[weepaws 2,452]

Yards and tds isn’t that all that matters when it comes to ff.  

And after all isn’t this site about ff, so what else should matter, isn’t that so? 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

Yards and tds isn’t that all that matters when it comes to ff.  

And after all isn’t this site about ff, so what else should matter, isn’t that so? 

Oh believe me, if they were talking about fantasy, then that's fine.  I just don't think that's what the Steelers fans are talking about.  I think they're referring to the NFL team and the teams wins and losses.

Besides, even if we are talking about fantasy, it's not like either Rudolph or Hodges were working with the best players.  Connor only played in 8 games, of 14, with those 2 QB's and Juju played in 10.  I think that Rudolph did pretty well for what he had to work with.  With significant less talent and significantly more conservative offense, in 8 starts, Rudolph's projections weren't all that far off of what Winston's was in his first season.  I think with a healthy group of a supporting cast, Rudolph would likely yield better results that Winston.  Remember, if Winston does go to Pittsburgh, the Steerlers aren't all of a sudden become an aggressive team.  Winston's numbers will certainly go down.

[weepaws 2,452]

It was posted, apparently people just look at yards and tds, and I was simply stating why that would be. 

Yards and tds only thing that matters when comes to ff , wins and loses of a particular team doesn’t even make the draft board. 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

14 minutes ago, weepaws said:

It was posted, apparently people just look at yards and tds, and I was simply stating why that would be. 

Yards and tds only thing that matters when comes to ff , wins and loses of a particular team doesn’t even make the draft board. 

 

Yes, I was responding to the above posts which intimated wins/losses by the Steelers.

[Law 220]

5 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yes, I was responding to the above posts which intimated wins/losses by the Steelers.

Third post in the thread. First mention of wins and losses....but only "responding" to the discussion right?

Some people just like to create an argument to argue.

[Smileseers 54]

As a Steeler fan who thinks that Winston is an upgrade over Rudolph, I really respect TBay's knowledge of Winston and I appreciate the arguments he has made.

What would the Buccaneers record have been last season with Rudolph at QB?