Housing Market crash imminent *DOUBLE DOOMSDAY*

[edjr 5,552]

14 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Who said that?  It’s just happening now, not April 2020

Not a matter of if, but when. Anyone that purchased a house since  Spring/Summer 2020 is going to end up under water.  At least around here. The prices were going far too high only a idiot would pay what they did. Many without inspections. paying far over asking to make sure they got the house, Idiots. The chickens always come home to roost. 

[TimHauck 1,799]

1 minute ago, edjr said:

Not a matter of if, but when. Anyone that purchased a house since  Spring/Summer 2020 is going to end up under water.  At least around here. The prices were going far too high only a idiot would pay what they did. Many without inspections. paying far over asking to make sure they got the house, Idiots. The chickens always come home to roost. 

So you think prices will drop ~40% on average?

[edjr 5,552]

3 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

So you think prices will drop ~40% on average?

I think 40% is strong, but definitely 25 to 30. It all depends how far the rates drop. I bet they won't go below 5% for a very long time. 

prices where I live have gone up 30+% since April 2020. Why can't they go back down that amount?  Down 7% in the past 4 months.

[edjr 5,552]

This house was just put on the market here where I live. Look at the pictures.

850k?  

People are focking insane. Should be $400k tops

 

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/6-Causeway-St_Gloucester_MA_01930_M38054-60401?property_id=3805460401&from=ab_mixed_view_card

[Hawkeye21 1,849]

2 minutes ago, edjr said:

This house was just put on the market here where I live. Look at the pictures.

850k?  

People are focking insane. Should be $400k tops

 

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/6-Causeway-St_Gloucester_MA_01930_M38054-60401?property_id=3805460401&from=ab_mixed_view_card

I don't think that would go for over $200,000 where I live.

[edjr 5,552]

8 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I don't think that would go for over $200,000 where I live.

people had their 1 1/2 of abusing people and overcharging. I am starting to sound like RLLD  

[Gladiators 1,904]

14 minutes ago, edjr said:

This house was just put on the market here where I live. Look at the pictures.

850k?  

People are focking insane. Should be $400k tops

 

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/6-Causeway-St_Gloucester_MA_01930_M38054-60401?property_id=3805460401&from=ab_mixed_view_card

I wouldn't take it if it were free.

[Hawkeye21 1,849]

2 minutes ago, Gladiators said:

I wouldn't take it if it were free.

Would cost you  $300,000 just to fix it up.

[TimHauck 1,799]

1 hour ago, edjr said:

I think 40% is strong, but definitely 25 to 30. It all depends how far the rates drop. I bet they won't go below 5% for a very long time. 

prices where I live have gone up 30+% since April 2020. Why can't they go back down that amount?  Down 7% in the past 4 months.

They “can,” just want to make sure I’m understanding your prediction.  I thought prices nationally had gone up about 40% since April 2020.

And if you think people will be underwater in your area, you must think prices will go down at least 30%…

 

[jerryskids 5,188]

2 hours ago, edjr said:

This house was just put on the market here where I live. Look at the pictures.

850k?  

People are focking insane. Should be $400k tops

 

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/6-Causeway-St_Gloucester_MA_01930_M38054-60401?property_id=3805460401&from=ab_mixed_view_card

I think the previous owner is color blind.  Or maybe just blind blind.   

[TimHauck 1,799]

 

 

[Raven Fan 362]

On 11/8/2022 at 2:25 PM, TimHauck said:

They “can,” just want to make sure I’m understanding your prediction.  I thought prices nationally had gone up about 40% since April 2020.

And if you think people will be underwater in your area, you must think prices will go down at least 30%…

 

I'll find it but there's a graph some where that shows the average US house price on one axis and the average interest rate on the other axis over time.  The two rise and fall almost perfectly until this last interest rate increase.  It shows a single dot outlier of current average housing cost way way above the average interest rate.

Housing prices have to fall due to simple supply and demand.  While the supply of houses is still pretty low, the buying power at higher prices has been cut significantly with this huge rise in rates.  I would expect a 30% or so fall from their highs over the next 18 months. 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

as i say, you can spot the bubble in the economy by looking at the trend in naming rights to sports arenas.  economic sectors with more cash than they know what to do with tend to put their names on sports buildings.  in the 1990s, dotcoms were trending in terms of buying naming rights leading into the dotcom crash.  after the crash was over, banks started trending in buying naming rights leading into the 2008 subprime crisis. 

after that crash, banks began a new trend in buying naming rights to sports stadiums along with crypto entities.  crypto.com just bought naming rights to the Lakers arena.  FTX owns rights to the Miami Heat arena.  now were seeing crypto crash and the Heat are going to rename their gym.  were heading for another mortgage crisis which will rock banks again.

[edjr 5,552]

On 11/11/2022 at 4:56 PM, Raven Fan said:

I'll find it but there's a graph some where that shows the average US house price on one axis and the average interest rate on the other axis over time.  The two rise and fall almost perfectly until this last interest rate increase.  It shows a single dot outlier of current average housing cost way way above the average interest rate.

Housing prices have to fall due to simple supply and demand.  While the supply of houses is still pretty low, the buying power at higher prices has been cut significantly with this huge rise in rates.  I would expect a 30% or so fall from their highs over the next 18 months. 

I predict 2025 will be the end of prices falling.

[Raven Fan 362]

1 hour ago, edjr said:

I predict 2025 will be the end of prices falling.

I don't have a prediction but for now prices are really sticky on the way down.  I want to be a vacation house/condo in the spring and I'm not sure prices will be low enough vs interest rates.  I definitely don't want to get too upside down in anything I buy. 

[TimHauck 1,799]

On 11/11/2022 at 4:56 PM, Raven Fan said:

I'll find it but there's a graph some where that shows the average US house price on one axis and the average interest rate on the other axis over time.  The two rise and fall almost perfectly until this last interest rate increase.  It shows a single dot outlier of current average housing cost way way above the average interest rate.

Housing prices have to fall due to simple supply and demand.  While the supply of houses is still pretty low, the buying power at higher prices has been cut significantly with this huge rise in rates.  I would expect a 30% or so fall from their highs over the next 18 months. 

Your first paragraph isn’t true.  

30 year mortgage rates - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

Median home price - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

Some of the key outliers:

1) rates shot up in 1979/1980, but prices continued to rise.

2) rates didn’t change all that much during the bubble of 2008

But, I agree with you overall and have stated that the rising rates are the biggest reason for why prices are going to decline now.  I’ve heard people argue like I said above that historically rates have had little impact on prices or “these rates are nothing compared to what we paid on our first house!!” but that’s irrelevant IMO.  Rates haven’t been above 5% since about 2010, so a significant percentage of homeowners have never seen a rate above 5% and now we’re at 7.  Of course it’s going to have an impact.

[Raven Fan 362]

3 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Your first paragraph isn’t true.  

30 year mortgage rates - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

Median home price - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

Some of the key outliers:

1) rates shot up in 1979/1980, but prices continued to rise.

2) rates didn’t change all that much during the bubble of 2008

But, I agree with you overall and have stated that the rising rates are the biggest reason for why prices are going to decline now.  I’ve heard people argue like I said above that historically rates have had little impact on prices or “these rates are nothing compared to what we paid on our first house!!” but that’s irrelevant IMO.  Rates haven’t been above 5% since about 2010, so a significant percentage of homeowners have never seen a rate above 5% and now we’re at 7.  Of course it’s going to have an impact.

I'll have to find the graph.  But you're right about 2008, maybe the chart factored out exterior events that impacted housing prices, not sure.

But the bottom line is that a $500k loan at 3.5% vs 7% is like $1,200 more a month.  This automatically reduces the pool of buyers at every single price point.  The only way to recover that supply of buyers is to lower the price.

[edjr 5,552]

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

Your first paragraph isn’t true.  

30 year mortgage rates - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

Median home price - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

Some of the key outliers:

1) rates shot up in 1979/1980, but prices continued to rise.

2) rates didn’t change all that much during the bubble of 2008

But, I agree with you overall and have stated that the rising rates are the biggest reason for why prices are going to decline now.  I’ve heard people argue like I said above that historically rates have had little impact on prices or “these rates are nothing compared to what we paid on our first house!!” but that’s irrelevant IMO.  Rates haven’t been above 5% since about 2010, so a significant percentage of homeowners have never seen a rate above 5% and now we’re at 7.  Of course it’s going to have an impact.

Unless you can pay cash, you have no choice but to wait. Paying 7% today for a house that has to drop in price, is just dumb. Prices have gone up so much since the start of 2020, most houses have to go down 40% with a 7% interest rate to pay the same payment you would have paid in 2020 with a 3% interest rate. 

[TimHauck 1,799]

15 minutes ago, edjr said:

Unless you can pay cash, you have no choice but to wait. Paying 7% today for a house that has to drop in price, is just dumb. Prices have gone up so much since the start of 2020, most houses have to go down 40% with a 7% interest rate to pay the same payment you would have paid in 2020 with a 3% interest rate. 

Are you planning to pay cash?

[Raven Fan 362]

18 minutes ago, edjr said:

Unless you can pay cash, you have no choice but to wait. Paying 7% today for a house that has to drop in price, is just dumb. Prices have gone up so much since the start of 2020, most houses have to go down 40% with a 7% interest rate to pay the same payment you would have paid in 2020 with a 3% interest rate. 

Even paying cash you should wait.  If people ever start losing their jobs on a large scale basis the housing market will get annihilated.  Like prices below 2019 annihilated. 

[edjr 5,552]

5 hours ago, TimHauck said:

Are you planning to pay cash?

Yes. in maybe 2 or 3 years. If prices dont come down 30% or more, no. We will just keep what we have and be happy. 

[edjr 5,552]

Nailed it. Get on board the pain train. 

[supermike80 1,285]

On 11/8/2022 at 1:00 PM, edjr said:

This house was just put on the market here where I live. Look at the pictures.

850k?  

People are focking insane. Should be $400k tops

 

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/6-Causeway-St_Gloucester_MA_01930_M38054-60401?property_id=3805460401&from=ab_mixed_view_card

Now shows a 748,000 asking

[edjr 5,552]

3 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Now shows a 748,000 asking

Still for sale     

[TimHauck 1,799]

10 minutes ago, edjr said:

Still for sale     

Still has a ways to go to get to $400k

[edjr 5,552]

 

Nothing to see here. It is all fake. No crash 

[edjr 5,552]

23 hours ago, TimHauck said:

Still has a ways to go to get to $400k

I realistically was hoping prices would drop to where they were at the start of 2020. With rates remaining so high, there is a good chance it will go even lower.

 

[TimHauck 1,799]

7 minutes ago, edjr said:

I realistically was hoping prices would drop to where they were at the start of 2020. With rates remaining so high, there is a good chance it will go even lower.

 

OK so you admit you were wrong if you predicted this in 2018, got it

[TimHauck 1,799]

11 minutes ago, edjr said:

 

Nothing to see here. It is all fake. No crash 

Who said it was fake?  Also this guy apparently has some sense as he admits the prices particularly in the tech-heavy metros are likely tied to job losses.  That's what I said would really drive declines.

[TimHauck 1,799]

interesting

 

 

[TimHauck 1,799]

here is a good example of lying RE agents though

 

 

[edjr 5,552]

1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

interesting

 

 

won't make a difference until there is price corrections or the rate falls below 5.  Fed is still planning to raise the rate at least 2 more times next 2 meetings

[edjr 5,552]

1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

here is a good example of lying RE agents though

 

 

  it is also important to remember that won't be till 2024 at the earliest.

[TimHauck 1,799]

On 1/13/2023 at 1:41 PM, edjr said:

I realistically was hoping prices would drop to where they were at the start of 2020. With rates remaining so high, there is a good chance it will go even lower.

 

Lol