COVID-19 projection site, let's track the numbers

[Intense Observer 344]

This site projects national and state cases, deaths, hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

It would be interesting to see how their projections change and match the real numbers coming in.

As of 4/5/2020:

National projections:

Peak resource use on 4/15/2020

Peak beds: 140,823 (36,654 shortage)

Peak ICU: 29,210 (16,323 shortage)

Ventilators needed: 24,828

Peak daily deaths: 3,130 (4/16/2020)

Total deaths US: 81,766 (8/4/2020)

 

Their confidence levels do not instill a lot of confidence.

You can sort the data by state as well.

I don't have the motivation to look at all the states but feel free to add your state's data if you want.

[nobody 2,031]

They overlay the actuals on deaths but not resource usage. 

[Intense Observer 344]

NM:

Projections as of 4/5/2020:

Peak resource date: 4/21/2020

Beds needed: 1218 (1752 available)

ICU needed: 247 (130 shortage)

Ventilators needed: 210 (according to governor there are 471 available)

Peak daily deaths: 27 on 4/22/2020

Total deaths: 603 on 8/4/2020

 

Per the state, as of 4/5/2020 there are:

19,136 tests

624 cases

41 hospitalizations

12 deaths

[Intense Observer 344]

3 minutes ago, nobody said:

They overlay the actuals on deaths but not resource usage. 

Outside of cases and deaths it is hard to get hard data from individual states since they all track it and release it differently.

I suppose for the resources we will only be able to compare projections. 

[nobody 2,031]

Well decisions are being made from these models.  If they're shìt, it would be good to know about it.

[edjr 5,547]

5 hours ago, nobody said:

Well decisions are being made from these models.  If they're shìt, it would be good to know about it.

Grocery store cashiers are far smarter and better at preventing corona than cashiers at Macys and Best Buy 

The world is focking retarded

[ZeroTolerance 582]

https://www.abc12.com/content/news/77-more-deaths-reported-as-Michigan-passes-15000-coronavirus-cases-569393411.html

 

Most recent numbers for Michigan. I have two on my floor who are going to die likely today, and I'm not in an ICU. Also, hospital a couple miles from here lost a nurse to COVID over the weekend (four more from that unit are positive). 

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

14 minutes ago, ZeroTolerance said:

https://www.abc12.com/content/news/77-more-deaths-reported-as-Michigan-passes-15000-coronavirus-cases-569393411.html

 

Most recent numbers for Michigan. I have two on my floor who are going to die likely today, and I'm not in an ICU. Also, hospital a couple miles from here lost a nurse to COVID over the weekend (four more from that unit are positive). 

That nurse would have died from something else soon anyway according to some here. 

[Intense Observer 344]

On 4/5/2020 at 10:46 PM, Intense Observer said:

This site projects national and state cases, deaths, hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

It would be interesting to see how their projections change and match the real numbers coming in.

As of 4/5/2020: (As of 4/8/2020 in bold)

National projections:

Peak resource use on 4/15/2020

Peak resource use on 4/11/2020

Peak beds: 140,823 (36,654 shortage)

Peak beds: 94,249 (15,852 shortage)

Peak ICU: 29,210 (16,323 shortage)

Peak ICU: 19,438 (9,047 shortage)

Ventilators needed: 24,828

Ventilators needed: 16,524

Peak daily deaths: 3,130 (4/16/2020)

Peak daily deaths: 2,212 (4/12/2020)

Total deaths US: 81,766 (8/4/2020)

Total deaths US: 60,415 (8/4/2020)

 

Amazing how fast the projections are falling in such  short time (3 days)

[TimmySmith 2,782]

3 minutes ago, Intense Observer said:

Amazing how fast the projections are falling in such  short time (3 days)

Based on the established rates of sh1thole countries. 

[edjr 5,547]

People are getting infected by going to the hospital that shouldn't be going to the hospital.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

Blacks and Latinos disproportionately are contracting Covid19.  
 

Are they more predisposed or are their other theories?

[The Elevator Killer 497]

9 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

Blacks and Latinos disproportionately are contracting Covid19.  
 

Are they more predisposed or are their other theories?

I live in the hood. Black people are having parties and such. They are not taking it seriously or some aren't. There's your real reason why.

 

[Alias Detective 1,179]

20 minutes ago, The Elevator Killer said:

I live in the hood. Black people are having parties and such. They are not taking it seriously or some aren't. There's your real reason why.

 

I’m sure it’s due to being disenfranchised somehow.

[RLLD 3,455]

15 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

I’m sure it’s due to being disenfranchised somehow.

 

THAT will be used, but I think there is a small correlation to be made through that political vehicle.

AA's will face situations that force them to be more in contact with others.

[posty 2,296]

15 hours ago, Intense Observer said:

Amazing how fast the projections are falling in such  short time (3 days)

The total number of deaths from this will be inflated anyway since states like New York are counting pretty much any death a COVID-19 death...

[Strike 3,947]

1 hour ago, The Elevator Killer said:

I live in the hood. Black people are having parties and such. They are not taking it seriously or some aren't. There's your real reason why.

 

This.  Other than a couple of cases when this sh*t hit the fan you aren't hearing about athletes getting this.  Why?  Because they don't live on top of each other in the hood.  Black people who follow social distancing and self isolation rules are fine.  Hanging out on the stoop drinking 40's with your buddies is a recipe for getting it.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

22 minutes ago, RLLD said:

 

THAT will be used, but I think there is a small correlation to be made through that political vehicle.

AA's will face situations that force them to be more in contact with others.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/data-shows-shocking-racial-disparity-in-coronavirus-cases-81814085754

https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/cdc-report-reveals-racial-disparities-in-coronavirus-cases-81812549949

https://www.msnbc.com/mtp-daily/watch/u-s-faces-25-percent-african-american-unemployment-rate-howard-president-says-81801285553
 

https://www.msnbc.com/mtp-daily/watch/coronavirus-highlights-lack-of-equal-access-to-health-care-81799749929

 

 

[RLLD 3,455]

Just now, Alias Detective said:

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/data-shows-shocking-racial-disparity-in-coronavirus-cases-81814085754

https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/cdc-report-reveals-racial-disparities-in-coronavirus-cases-81812549949

https://www.msnbc.com/mtp-daily/watch/u-s-faces-25-percent-african-american-unemployment-rate-howard-president-says-81801285553
 

https://www.msnbc.com/mtp-daily/watch/coronavirus-highlights-lack-of-equal-access-to-health-care-81799749929

 

 

Right, not sure if you are intending to make a point or not.

In general the AA community faces challenges day to day that tend to disproportionately hurt them, and there are factors associated with the virus that suggest it makes sense there were also be a disproportionate impact in terms of the virus. Not sure why anyone with even a teenager level of logic would not have seen this coming.

If someone is not a strong swimmer they struggle in the water, if there is a rip tide....well......

[Alias Detective 1,179]

Just now, RLLD said:

Right, not sure if you are intending to make a point or not.

In general the AA community faces challenges day to day that tend to disproportionately hurt them, and there are factors associated with the virus that suggest it makes sense there were also be a disproportionate impact in terms of the virus. Not sure why anyone with even a teenager level of logic would not have seen this coming.

If someone is not a strong swimmer they struggle in the water, if there is a rip tide....well......

It seems some have found a way to always to be a victim regardless of personal actions.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

17 minutes ago, posty said:

The total number of deaths from this will be inflated anyway since states like New York are counting pretty much any death a COVID-19 death...

The sky is falling Cuomo caused a lot of the panic with his overinflated numbers the liberal media kept reporting on.

[The Elevator Killer 497]

10 minutes ago, Strike said:

This.  Other than a couple of cases when this sh*t hit the fan you aren't hearing about athletes getting this.  Why?  Because they don't live on top of each other in the hood.  Black people who follow social distancing and self isolation rules are fine.  Hanging out on the stoop drinking 40's with your buddies is a recipe for getting it.

I saw a guy a few days ago selling drugs to people driving by. Parties at several houses like last week. I quit going the convenience stores around here because they just don't get it. 

[RLLD 3,455]

3 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

It seems some have found a way to always to be a victim regardless of personal actions.

This is true. And it will be true here as well, people will use it for political gain instead of helping people. Its sad.