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Gronk coming back to the ... Bucs?

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Gronk left the door open when he "retired" that he might change his mind at some point and return to the league. According to reports, the Patriots and Bucs have had some discussions about a potential trade. On the field, Gronk appeared to be losing some juice during his 2018 campaign (47-682-3) in which he was limited to 13 games.

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I think this seals the deal that Howard will be gone for something... probably a 4th to get that pick back.

 

I think this is a waste of a move.  The homer in me, and honestly I do think it's a legit stance, says the Bucs are Super Bowl contenders this year.  Of course, the lack of training camp and what not could certainly end up hurting the Bucs and the season not go as expected.  Getting Gronk for just 1 year, is really gambling.  I mean, Brady for 2 (and I think it could be 3 or 4), is fine because it does give you a 2-year window, but Gronk forces you to think this year only because the Bucs will need to move one of their two TE's... both of which are young and legitimate NFL starting TE's.

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Well it least we know where that OJ Howard trade rumor was coming from. I think this is a no-brainer for TB. You can't think long term with a 43 yr old QB. Go for it now. 75% of Pats Gronk is plenty good enough with all the other weapons on this team.

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Does this signify a big year for Mike Evans?

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Mistake, they the Bucs would be better off keeping Howard and Brate. 

Did anyone notice that Gronks last season in the Nfl, that was 2018, was his worst.  

Yeah not a good move, but it well sale tickets.  

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10 hours ago, weepaws said:

Mistake, they the Bucs would be better off keeping Howard and Brate. 

Did anyone notice that Gronks last season in the Nfl, that was 2018, was his worst.  

Yeah not a good move, but it well sale tickets.  

Agreed.  Brate + Howard could produce the same as Gronk will.

 

I can see it from a strategic standpoint though.  Teams will prepare differently for the Bucs with Gronk on the field than they would if it were Brate or Howard.  Gronk will command a double team, the other TE's won't.  You can't double everyone, so somebody is going to be open.  Plus, that literally will give the Bucs another weapon who would be a Red Zone monster.  Not that Brate and Howard weren't, but if (when), one of the two current TE's gets moved, they won't have lost anything.

 

I will say this, if the Bucs get near the Super Bowl, I think Gronk re-signs for a 1-year deal to take another crack.  I'm just not so sure that Gronk will be as productive as the Bucs want him to be.  He'll probably end up being a very expensive decoy/rotational player.  Now, if it works, then fine... but still, I don't think bringing in Gronk was a necessary move.

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20 hours ago, jdon said:

Does this signify a big year for Mike Evans?

Probably, I think he was going to have a pretty good year regardless

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With Godwin I’m not so sure either one has a big year.  

 

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I don't think Gronk changes any fantasy output for Evans or Godwin.  In fact, I think his arrival may solidify them.  I don't think Gronk will get much more than about 50 receptions, 700 yards, and 2 or 3 TD's.  His biggest impact will be for the Buccaneers, where he'll probably be a 1st down maker, keeping drives alive.  I see Godwin as the biggest benefactor with Evans being next.  I see Godwin as top 3 WR and Evans as top 7.  I can see them both finishing in the top 3 honestly.

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Why? Why can you see them both finishing we’re they both ended up last season? 

And if the Bucs take a rec rb and they already sign Gronk plus they we’ll play a double te offense a lot I’m sure, I don’t see both Evans and Godwin coming back this season ranked where they were last season   

 

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37 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Why? Why can you see them both finishing we’re they both ended up last season? 

And if the Bucs take a rec rb and they already sign Gronk plus they we’ll play a double te offense a lot I’m sure, I don’t see both Evans and Godwin coming back this season ranked where they were last season   

 

Because the assumption is that they'll both play all 16 games.  Evans doesn't really miss many games, I think he's missed like 6 in his career where 3 were last year and 2 of the other 3 were from being suspended.  Prior to the injury, Godwin played in all 45 games of his career.  I think both will be more efficient.  I think Brady will be able to complete around 68% to 70% of his passes based on the reliability and talent of his receivers.  Because of that, the Godwin and Evans won't need as many targets to accrue their totals from last year.  I also think that the Bucs will be more productive in the Red Zone and I think both Godwin and Evans could have 12+ TD's.

Gronk isn't going to be a 70/1100/10 guy like he was in his prime.  He's going to be a chains mover.  He's going to be the clutch guy.  He's going to make it even easier to for Godwin and Evans to produce.  Howard's going to be traded.  Sure, they're going to find another RB, but Barber is gone already, so the RB they're going to get is going to replace Barber's number.  They have Jones and Ogunbowale who can catch out of the backfield, but Ogunbowale is going to be the one hurt most by the new guy, not Evans or Godwin.

I'll go back to the same argument I made last year, that some seemed to ignore... Who is going to take targets away from Evans and Godwin?  LOL, The answer is nobody.  Last year, the Bucs threw the ball 626 times.  Do you really think the Bucs will throw that much less?  Let's say they throw the ball 575 times.  Last year,  Brate and Howard accounted for 108 targets.  You really think Gronk and Brate will have any more?  I don't.  In fact, I think they get less.  Last year, Barber, Jones, and Ogunbolwale had 110 targets.  Do you really think the RB's will have any more than that?  I don't.  The Bucs didn't replace Perriman, so there's 69 targets to replace.  If we're dropping 50, from the team, that still leaves 19 targets.  Who do you think will get those?  I'm willing to put my money on Godwin and Evans.

I do expect growing pains... in a sense.  Because of the lack of a full off-season, I think Brady will rely on Gronk early on, and fantasy owners may be disappointed in both Godwin and Evans' production.  But, come week 4, I think those two will be monsters... both on the field and for fantasy.

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I think of Gronk and Howard and Brate can stay healthy , I think the te postion well see much more targets.  

And so we’ll the rb postion.  

So I think one of those two WRs we’ll be a top 6 wr this next season.  

I think if Brady is completing 68% or higher, he’s checking down to Rbs and his tes, not his WRs and Brady has only once had a 68% or higher in his nfl carrier  in a season   

 

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25 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I think of Gronk and Howard and Brate can stay healthy , I think the te postion well see much more targets.  

And so we’ll the rb postion.  

So I think one of those two WRs we’ll be a top 6 wr this next season.  

I think if Brady is completing 68% or higher, he’s checking down to Rbs and his tes, not his WRs and Brady has only once had a 68% or higher in his nfl carrier  in a season   

 

0% chance that Howard is on the team next season.

Specific RB's will get more targets, but not the whole core.  Meaning, I can Ogunbolwale getting virtually phased out.  Can their be an increase in targets?  Yeah, a small amount, but those will come from secondary receivers like Scotty Miller and Justin Watson, not Godwin or Evans.

Godwin I think will be a stud.  He was 2nd in YAC in the NFL last year.  I can see him around 1500 yards this season.  I think Evans will do fine.  He'll crack the top 3 in fantasy if his TD total hits 15, otherwise, like I said earlier, he'll probably be top 7.

Brady never played with 2 elite WR's and an elite TE.  How do you know he won't be able to utilize them?

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't think Gronk changes any fantasy output for Evans or Godwin.  In fact, I think his arrival may solidify them.  I don't think Gronk will get much more than about 50 receptions, 700 yards, and 2 or 3 TD's.  His biggest impact will be for the Buccaneers, where he'll probably be a 1st down maker, keeping drives alive.  I see Godwin as the biggest benefactor with Evans being next.  I see Godwin as top 3 WR and Evans as top 7.  I can see them both finishing in the top 3 honestly.

2 or 3 Td's? I'll take the over please. I'd wager Gronk has a at least 1 game with 2 Td's...

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1 minute ago, jrokh said:

2 or 3 Td's? I'll take the over please. I'd wager Gronk has a at least 1 game with 2 Td's...

He might, early on.  But 1) I don't expect him to play all 16 games.  2) I do expect him to be heavily targeted early on, but after that, I think he's used significantly less in the passing game, and more in pass blocking.

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4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Because the assumption is that they'll both play all 16 games.  Evans doesn't really miss many games, I think he's missed like 6 in his career where 3 were last year and 2 of the other 3 were from being suspended.  Prior to the injury, Godwin played in all 45 games of his career.  I think both will be more efficient.  I think Brady will be able to complete around 68% to 70% of his passes based on the reliability and talent of his receivers.  Because of that, the Godwin and Evans won't need as many targets to accrue their totals from last year.  I also think that the Bucs will be more productive in the Red Zone and I think both Godwin and Evans could have 12+ TD's.

Gronk isn't going to be a 70/1100/10 guy like he was in his prime.  He's going to be a chains mover.  He's going to be the clutch guy.  He's going to make it even easier to for Godwin and Evans to produce.  Howard's going to be traded.  Sure, they're going to find another RB, but Barber is gone already, so the RB they're going to get is going to replace Barber's number.  They have Jones and Ogunbowale who can catch out of the backfield, but Ogunbowale is going to be the one hurt most by the new guy, not Evans or Godwin.

I'll go back to the same argument I made last year, that some seemed to ignore... Who is going to take targets away from Evans and Godwin?  LOL, The answer is nobody.  Last year, the Bucs threw the ball 626 times.  Do you really think the Bucs will throw that much less?  Let's say they throw the ball 575 times.  Last year,  Brate and Howard accounted for 108 targets.  You really think Gronk and Brate will have any more?  I don't.  In fact, I think they get less.  Last year, Barber, Jones, and Ogunbolwale had 110 targets.  Do you really think the RB's will have any more than that?  I don't.  The Bucs didn't replace Perriman, so there's 69 targets to replace.  If we're dropping 50, from the team, that still leaves 19 targets.  Who do you think will get those?  I'm willing to put my money on Godwin and Evans.

I do expect growing pains... in a sense.  Because of the lack of a full off-season, I think Brady will rely on Gronk early on, and fantasy owners may be disappointed in both Godwin and Evans' production.  But, come week 4, I think those two will be monsters... both on the field and for fantasy.

You think the Bucs could go after an RB kind of early, like 2nd round? Maybe get Swift or Taylor?

Ronald Jones is okay but he's certainly not irreplaceable. I think they would be well served to get one of the top workhorse RBs and Jones be a change of pace RB.

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2 hours ago, polecatt said:

You think the Bucs could go after an RB kind of early, like 2nd round? Maybe get Swift or Taylor?

Ronald Jones is okay but he's certainly not irreplaceable. I think they would be well served to get one of the top workhorse RBs and Jones be a change of pace RB.

I really don't think they see RB as that big of a problem.  They already have a young 2nd round pick at the position who did pretty well last year when he was the featured RB.  (In the 11 games where Jones got 10 or more carries, he averaged 13.3 PPR fantasy points per game.  Even with no further improvement, that's top 20 pace.)

I doubt if either Swift or Taylor will still be on the board for them in the 2nd round (#45 overall), so unless they take a RB in the first round (and they won't), they're basically looking at maybe Dobbins at #76 overall--and then they don't pick again until #139 overall.  So I just don't see them burning another top-3 round pick on a RB.

Now if A.J. Dillon is still on the board at #139, I could see him being the power back with some speed and hands that could complement Jones...  but good luck with that.

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8 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

0% chance that Howard is on the team next season.

Specific RB's will get more targets, but not the whole core.  Meaning, I can Ogunbolwale getting virtually phased out.  Can their be an increase in targets?  Yeah, a small amount, but those will come from secondary receivers like Scotty Miller and Justin Watson, not Godwin or Evans.

Godwin I think will be a stud.  He was 2nd in YAC in the NFL last year.  I can see him around 1500 yards this season.  I think Evans will do fine.  He'll crack the top 3 in fantasy if his TD total hits 15, otherwise, like I said earlier, he'll probably be top 7.

Brady never played with 2 elite WR's and an elite TE.  How do you know he won't be able to utilize them?

Mistake if he’s not.  

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8 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

0% chance that Howard is on the team next season.

Specific RB's will get more targets, but not the whole core.  Meaning, I can Ogunbolwale getting virtually phased out.  Can their be an increase in targets?  Yeah, a small amount, but those will come from secondary receivers like Scotty Miller and Justin Watson, not Godwin or Evans.

Godwin I think will be a stud.  He was 2nd in YAC in the NFL last year.  I can see him around 1500 yards this season.  I think Evans will do fine.  He'll crack the top 3 in fantasy if his TD total hits 15, otherwise, like I said earlier, he'll probably be top 7.

Brady never played with 2 elite WR's and an elite TE.  How do you know he won't be able to utilize them?

He will utilize them, and they all well get work, that’s the problem, only one football. 

I don’t see both of them repeating last season based on their final rankings.  

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4 hours ago, polecatt said:

You think the Bucs could go after an RB kind of early, like 2nd round? Maybe get Swift or Taylor?

Ronald Jones is okay but he's certainly not irreplaceable. I think they would be well served to get one of the top workhorse RBs and Jones be a change of pace RB.

I think they must.  

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  1. Yes, Tampa does believe they need to upgrade the RB position.  In fact, I can see them not only drafting 1 RB, but possibly 2, in this draft.  I know they "like" Jones and they "like" Obungowale, but they don't "love" either one.  The Bucs don't care about fantasy football and don't care if Jones is a top 20 RB.  What they care about, aside from the production he yields when the ball is in his hands, is how many touches they can give him where he doesn't put the ball on the ground, where he doesn't miss his blocking assignments, and how much of the playbook he understands.  He's very poor in all 3 of those aspects.  I expect the Bucs to draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd.  I know they're going to target the OLine or DLine in the first round, but if all of their targeted players are gone, I wouldn't put it past them to draft an RB at #14.
  2. The Bucs WILL NOT go into the season with Gronk, Howard, AND Brate.  They will not carry $18M in cap space dedicated to the TE position.  They don't have a ton of cap space left and they're going to want to make sure they have some money available to them in-season.  Howard is heading into his 4th season, so he's going to need to have his 5th year option picked up in 2 weeks.  With Gronk only on a 1-year deal, the Bucs are wiser to move Howard because Brate has 3 more years left on his deal after this one at a good price.  The Bucs are not going to want to pay a TE who's head isn't in the game and who's regularly injured more money.

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8 hours ago, weepaws said:

He will utilize them, and they all well get work, that’s the problem, only one football. 

I don’t see both of them repeating last season based on their final rankings.  

Only 1 football and yet, still the same amount of players who will touch the ball.  You're over estimating how many players are going to touch the ball... especially score TD's.  I fully expect to BOTH Godwin and Evan in the 12 to 15 range (possibly even more for one of them), in touchdowns

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18 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Only 1 football and yet, still the same amount of players who will touch the ball.  You're over estimating how many players are going to touch the ball... especially score TD's.  I fully expect to BOTH Godwin and Evan in the 12 to 15 range (possibly even more for one of them), in touchdowns

No problem.  

We well revisited this thread after the season, hopefully we have a season.  

I don’t agree, that both we’ll be a top 7 wr this next season. 

Thanks. 

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Just now, weepaws said:

No problem.  

We well revisited this thread after the season, hopefully we have a season.  

I don’t agree, that both we’ll be a top 7 wr this next season. 

Thanks. 

I think that's the most likely scenario.  I can see 1 finishing top 5 and the other top 10...  I can see both being in the top 3, but yeah, I think the most likely scenario is Godwin being top 3 and Evans being around 7.

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20 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think that's the most likely scenario.  I can see 1 finishing top 5 and the other top 10...  I can see both being in the top 3, but yeah, I think the most likely scenario is Godwin being top 3 and Evans being around 7.

Yeah I know you do, again no problem, I think we well see a little bit more of a conservative offense with the Bucs with Brady then with Winston.  

Which is why the Gronk was sign. 

But we’ll see. 

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4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:
  1. Yes, Tampa does believe they need to upgrade the RB position.

I'm sorry; what was your position with the organization again?

 

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

In fact, I can see them not only drafting 1 RB, but possibly 2, in this draft.  I know they "like" Jones and they "like" Obungowale, but they don't "love" either one.

They don't have to "love" a RB with that offense.  They just need someone who is credible to balance the strategy of passing whenever possible.  They have an entirely credible 2nd round pick at the position already.

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

The Bucs don't care about fantasy football and don't care if Jones is a top 20 RB.

No kidding.  I used FF metrics as a familiar yardstick to put his limited 2019 production into perspective with other NFL RB.

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I expect the Bucs to draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd.  I know they're going to target the OLine or DLine in the first round, but if all of their targeted players are gone, I wouldn't put it past them to draft an RB at #14.

They absolutely will not draft a RB at #14.  I would be flabbergasted if they drafted a RB in the 2nd.  As I mentioned above, Dobbins at #76 would be an outside possibility, but I fully expect TB to wait until at least their compensatory pick at the end of Round 4 to shore up the backfield (I really like Dillon if he's still on the board there at #139, but we'll see...)

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

I'm sorry; what was your position with the organization again?

 

They don't have to "love" a RB with that offense.  They just need someone who is credible to balance the strategy of passing whenever possible.  They have an entirely credible 2nd round pick at the position already.

No kidding.  I used FF metrics as a familiar yardstick to put his limited 2019 production into perspective with other NFL RB.

They absolutely will not draft a RB at #14.  I would be flabbergasted if they drafted a RB in the 2nd.  As I mentioned above, Dobbins at #76 would be an outside possibility, but I fully expect TB to wait until at least their compensatory pick at the end of Round 4 to shore up the backfield (I really like Dillon if he's still on the board there at #139, but we'll see...)

It's funny when I said they believe the need to upgrade the RB position, you asked about my position in the organization - yet, you have no qualms with saying that "they absolutely will not draft a RB at #14."  My only take from that is that you actually work for the Buccaneers.

That aside, I know what's going on with the team I like and follow, so I know the Bucs are planning to address the RB position in the first 3 rounds.  Based on the mocks, player evaluations that I've seen, it looks like the best available player that is likely to be available for the Bucs in the second round, is a RB.  Also, through what I've read and heard, I'm thinking that the RB's that Tampa would want to draft may not make it to their third round pick and the Bucs may try to trade back into the 2nd round... or just draft their guy in the 2nd round.

You know what your fantasy metrics don't take into account?  The fact that he misses blocking assignments on a regular basis.  That's not good when you have a 43 year old QB.  You know what else they don't account for?  His lack of understanding the offense.  Those are the reasons he was only getting about 40% of the snap share.  You can't produce if you're not on the field.

I'm glad you're positive that they won't draft a RB at #14.  Bucs fans know better though.  Our GM is the moron who drafted Winston.  The moron who drafted a 1st round TE a month after giving a TE a $40M contract.  The moron who traded back into the 2nd round to draft a kicker.  Like I said, I don't put anything past him.  NFL.com just had a Top 25 GM article... Licht ranked 23, for good reason.

I don't know how much it's been reported, but the 4th round pick that the Bucs traded to NE, was the compensatory pick not their original pick.  They have pick #117 in that round and NE has #139.

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2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

It's funny when I said they believe the need to upgrade the RB position, you asked about my position in the organization - yet, you have no qualms with saying that "they absolutely will not draft a RB at #14."  My only take from that is that you actually work for the Buccaneers.

What teams DO is objective; any observer can verify what the team actually DOES.  What they THINK is subjective; you would have to be a member of the Buccaneers organization to know what any member of the Buccaneers organization is THINKING.  You said Tampa BELIEVES they need to upgrade at RB; I say there is no way we can know what they BELIEVE, we can only know what they DO.

6 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't know how much it's been reported, but the 4th round pick that the Bucs traded to NE, was the compensatory pick not their original pick.  They have pick #117 in that round and NE has #139.

Now THAT is new information to me.  I was under the impression that NE got their actual pick and they kept the Comp pic--but I could easily be wrong about that.

All the better for snagging Dillon at #117...

And yes, Jones needs to continue to improve his game--but he's young and hasn't had a lot of run in his first couple of years, so that's entirely possible.  No one knows what the Bucs are thinking for sure, and like you said, they could go and do something totally unreasonable at any time for any reason.  But I believe their best move is to address bigger areas of need in the first 3 rounds, and then shore up the backfield sometime from the 4th on.

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Mmm I think a go to rb1 would be a big need.  

I would think that mr Brady would also.  

 

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47 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

What teams DO is objective; any observer can verify what the team actually DOES.  What they THINK is subjective; you would have to be a member of the Buccaneers organization to know what any member of the Buccaneers organization is THINKING.  You said Tampa BELIEVES they need to upgrade at RB; I say there is no way we can know what they BELIEVE, we can only know what they DO.

Now THAT is new information to me.  I was under the impression that NE got their actual pick and they kept the Comp pic--but I could easily be wrong about that.

All the better for snagging Dillon at #117...

And yes, Jones needs to continue to improve his game--but he's young and hasn't had a lot of run in his first couple of years, so that's entirely possible.  No one knows what the Bucs are thinking for sure, and like you said, they could go and do something totally unreasonable at any time for any reason.  But I believe their best move is to address bigger areas of need in the first 3 rounds, and then shore up the backfield sometime from the 4th on.

Here a link that says the pick was the compensatory pick.  I was under the same impression as you until I heard it on local radio.  

When I say that "the Bucs believe", I'm getting that info from Buccaneers team reporters.  They're more in the know than anyone else, so they're the ones I listen to more than not.  Also, because they're usually spot on when most got things wrong.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Here a link that says the pick was the compensatory pick.  I was under the same impression as you until I heard it on local radio.  

When I say that "the Bucs believe", I'm getting that info from Buccaneers team reporters.  They're more in the know than anyone else, so they're the ones I listen to more than not.  Also, because they're usually spot on when most got things wrong.

I believed you on the pick, since I wasn't all THAT certain myself.

Anyway, the best you can say is that "the Bucs team reporters are suggesting..."  You can't ever say what someone else thinks/believes.

Axe Elf thinks that in the modern NFL, RBs are not as important as they once were, and that Tampa Bay will not address the position before the 3rd round at the earliest, and most likely, not until at least the 4th round, where Dillon would be a solid pick.

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On 4/23/2020 at 4:59 PM, AxeElf said:

Axe Elf thinks that in the modern NFL, RBs are not as important as they once were, and that Tampa Bay will not address the position before the 3rd round at the earliest...

And the Bucs draft a back-up RB in the 3rd.

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10 hours ago, AxeElf said:

And the Bucs draft a back-up RB in the 3rd.

He's probably going to be there 1st and 2nd down back.

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5 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

He's probably going to be there 1st and 2nd down back.

In 2028?

The "Instant Analysis" guy considers him a handcuff too...

18 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Vaughn should be viewed as a handcuff - one capable of moving up to RB3 territory if Jones goes down.

 

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That's because I don't share your opinion on Jones.  I think in camp, Jones loses his job.  If there's a full off-season.  If not, he'll lose it before mid-season.

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Don’t see Jones losing his job, I think we see another share RBBC with the Bucs.  

I think the Bucs we’ll attempt to make Jones the third down back.  

So his role might actually be even bigger this season.  

 

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