Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Joe Burrow, Bengals

[The Football Guru 210]

Draft Profile

Andrew Luck was unquestionably one of the most accurate quarterback prospects of the last decade. Burrow is in that class in terms of accuracy. It's almost as if anything within 20 yards is an extended handoff. LSU's up-tempo, RPO-heavy offense - along with the Tigers' plethora of NFL-ready receiving weapons - certainly showcased just how high of a ceiling Burrow has. Yet, even in an ideal situation against average competition, a quarterback capable of averaging 378 yards passing and posting a 10:1 TD-to-INT ratio is ridiculous. Throwing for 60 touchdowns in a season is equally absurd. To do all of this in the best conference in college football and make it look mostly effortless is beyond amazing.

Two of the most desirable characteristics a quarterback prospect entering the league can possess is accuracy and the ability to win the chess game that football often becomes at the pro level. Burrow has both in spades. An Aaron Rodgers comp is a very high bar for the Ohio native, but that kind of ceiling is within reach considering his accuracy, awareness and vision - the last two of which may have been the biggest reasons he thrived in LSU's spread attack in 2019. A more reasonable expectation is Tony Romo, who did a good job of extending plays for most of his career and was an underrated athlete. So while it may be scary to trust one year of production in college, Burrow doesn't have the feel of a player that will bust. A more likely outcome is he evolves into a top-10 quarterback in the league by the time he is ready to sign his second contract.

What does it mean in redraft? Burrow should be considered a high-end QB2 in 12-team leagues, especially if A.J. Green can stay healthy and the Bengals continue to beef up the offensive line (and are lucky enough to avoid another injury to 2019 first-round pick Jonah Williams, who is expected to man the left tackle spot in Cincinnati for the foreseeable future).

What does it mean for dynasty? Top dynasty QB off the board, likely at the end of the first round or beginning of the second. (Will update again after the draft is completed.)

[AxeElf 787]

15 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

Burrow should be considered a high-end QB2 in 12-team leagues

In 2020?

Doubtful.

[weepaws 2,450]

High Qb two in a 12 or even a 14 seems right.  

Thanks Guru. 

[The Football Guru 210]

5 hours ago, AxeElf said:

In 2020?

Doubtful.

High-end QB2 means top 16 QB to me. I don't think that's a huge stretch if he is a 1) Week 1 starter (pretty much a lock) and stays healthy and 2) A.J. Green stays healthy.

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

13 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

High-end QB2 means top 16 QB to me. I don't think that's a huge stretch if he is a 1) Week 1 starter (pretty much a lock) and stays healthy and 2) A.J. Green stays healthy.

Yeah, sounds a bit right to me.

[tanatastic 2,061]

16 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

High-end QB2 means top 16 QB to me. I don't think that's a huge stretch if he is a 1) Week 1 starter (pretty much a lock) and stays healthy and 2) A.J. Green stays healthy.

He will start, will probably stay healthy but AJ I’d say is 40/60 to stay healthy.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Just a PSA because I have seen a lot  of people on the internet casually projecting Burrow for stats that would make him the best rookie QB all time. Don’t draft him. With zero preseason and iffy camps, rookie QBs tossed to the wolves on opening day will be an absolute train wreck. Fade all bengals pass catchers (probably Mixon too) and don’t even consider Burrow even in 2 QB leagues. Please, do it for me if not yourselves.

[AxeElf 787]

39 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Just a PSA because I have seen a lot  of people on the internet casually projecting Burrow for stats that would make him the best rookie QB all time. Don’t draft him. With zero preseason and iffy camps, rookie QBs tossed to the wolves on opening day will be an absolute train wreck. Fade all bengals pass catchers (probably Mixon too) and don’t even consider Burrow even in 2 QB leagues. Please, do it for me if not yourselves.

But what if Burrow turns out to be the best rookie QB of all time?

[polecatt 399]

Any rookie QB has to come with a great deal of skepticism, although it does seem to be getting much easier for a rookie QB to succeed right off the bat.

I remember Cam Newton completely bailed me out his rookie season. I drafted Peyton, and when he ended up on IR for the season, I had to pick up Cam on waivers, and he ended up being the 3rd best QB in my league with his 14 rushing TDs.

Cam was custom built to be a fantasy football stud though. I'm not so sure about Burrow this season. It often seems like the rookie QBs that are big time fantasy stars right off the bat are the guys who can put up some pretty big rushing numbers until their passing game matures to an NFL level. Even Andrew Luck, who was a low end fantasy starter his rookie season was far behind RG3, who was the top fantasy QB until he got injured, in a lot of formats. You have Cam, RG3, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, all capable fantasy starters their rookie season, aided by some big rushing numbers. While guys like Wentz, Goff, even Mahomes weren't fantasy starters their rookie season.

So I think a QB2 for Burrow is a good call this season. He'll put up okay numbers, and surely have some big games, but he'll have some games too where he's terrible. He'll be a good guy to call in off the bench for a bye week fill in, or a short term injury to your starter, but I doubt he's a weekly play.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Again, throw out all of your rookie comparisons and previous years. No preseason. Virtual meetings. Players missing time for Covid. There is no comparison to this season. If Burrow is the best rookie ever he would still struggle under these circumstances I have outlined.

[FlyinHeadlock 459]

I'm drafting him. He's better than Mahommes. The guy is immune to pressure. He can make all the throws, scramble if needed. He made Saban throw his fvcking hands in the air several times. First year could suck like Peyton Manning but after that no way. He is the real deal.   

[tanatastic 2,061]

11 minutes ago, FlyinHeadlock said:

I'm drafting him.
 

 First year could suck

?

Unless you talking Dynasty then that’s fine.

[weepaws 2,450]

1 hour ago, FlyinHeadlock said:

I'm drafting him. He's better than Mahommes. The guy is immune to pressure. He can make all the throws, scramble if needed. He made Saban throw his ##### hands in the air several times. First year could suck like Peyton Manning but after that no way. He is the real deal.   

You talking keeper? 

Theres no way I’m looking his way this season in my redraft.  

[FlyinHeadlock 459]

33 minutes ago, weepaws said:

You talking keeper? 

Theres no way I’m looking his way this season in my redraft.  

I never keep a QB. No. In auction, bidding war under $21 sure. I'd do it. First year though, going to be rough as hell. He'll be true though end of season. Could win championships. He is that good. Not some Danny Wuerffel Heisman winner. He played against stellar talent.  

[snatchit 108]

On 4/23/2020 at 7:42 PM, AxeElf said:

In 2020?

Doubtful.

I heard an interview of TJ Houshmanzada, he said John Ross is just like Tyreek Hill if not better, and remember he was drafted 9th over all. James Jones says he wouldnt be surprised if Burrows doesnt hook up with AJ Green for 15 TD's. Tyler Boyd is amazing with Green on the field. Tee Higgins comparable is AJ Green. I picked up Auden Tate off waivers last year... dudes a stud. He will have very capable receiving RB's, Oline will be better. Defense will be much much better, to get the ball back to them. Burrows is very accurate and has great pocket presence. They probably have the best WR core in the league. And your conclusion is... Doubtful ?????

 

[FlyinHeadlock 459]

Burrow has some damn good targets around him. Elite WR's no but they are very solid. I would say one of the best lb for lb in the NFL. Better than the Saints, Chiefs, GB...I honestly can't think of another team with that many good WR's. It's normally great then suckage. 

[tanatastic 2,061]

20 minutes ago, FlyinHeadlock said:

Burrow has some damn good targets around him. Elite WR's no but they are very solid. I would say one of the best lb for lb in the NFL. Better than the Saints, Chiefs, GB...I honestly can't think of another team with that many good WR's. It's normally great then suckage. 

 Absolutely in no way is the Cincy WR corps better than Chiefs or Saints group, I’ll give you the packers. Mike Thomas alone is better and they added E Sanders, a stud. Tyreek is among the most dangerous in the game, Mecole is a high upside guy and if you add te to options, well, Kelce is the best in the game. Bengals don’t even have a te worth mentioning. Packers are Davante and that’s it, they are kaka.
 

Green- Was great, hasn’t been able to stay healthy and is barely even draftable anymore. Love him though. 
Boyd- Decent, good even.
Ross, Tate- Who? Non factors.
Higgins- Rookie.
 

 

[FlyinHeadlock 459]

5 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

 Absolutely in no way is the Cincy WR corps better than Chiefs or Saints group, I’ll give you the packers. 
 

Green- Was great, hasn’t been able to stay healthy and is barely even draftable anymore. Love him though. 
Boyd- Decent, good even.
Ross, Tate- Who? Non factors.
Higgins- Rookie.
 

 

Really? Sammy Watkins. Dude shows up like 2 games a year. Mecole is a one trick pony. Not a real WR. He run fast catch ball,,meh. You totally left out Auden Tate. He was really good. Massive body in the RZ hard to cover.

[tanatastic 2,061]

6 minutes ago, FlyinHeadlock said:

Really? Sammy Watkins. Dude shows up like 2 games a year. Mecole is a one trick pony. Not a real WR. He run fast catch ball.

What you said doesn’t erase what I said. 
 

Here’s some other opinions from a quick google of journalist opinions of wr/pass catcher groups.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2020-nfl-season-receiving-corps-rankings Chiefs 2, Bengals 10.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2893253-ranking-every-nfl-receiving-corps-heading-into-the-2020-season Chiefs 2, Bengals 12.

https://www.radio.com/sports/nfl/gallery/nfl-2020-power-ranking-top-pass-catching-groups#kansas-city-chiefs-ck8abjuqf005e3h62m5hfrfnm Chiefs 2, Bengals 14.

You get the idea. Saints also ranked not far behind chiefs on all these lists and well above Bengals. Take the L.

[FlyinHeadlock 459]

Wasting your time on me with links. I appreciate the effort but really, I'm just a guy that doesn't listen to any of it. I have watched Joe His whole time in the SEC. He is the real deal. Not some flash in the pants college QB. I drafted Kamara as a flyer if that helps and won the league last year but whatever...I am dufus. sorry. So stupid. You are correct Sir!

[tanatastic 2,061]

9 minutes ago, FlyinHeadlock said:

Wasting your time on me with links. I appreciate the effort but really, I'm just a guy that doesn't listen to any of it. I have watched Joe His whole time in the SEC. He is the real deal. Not some flash in the pants college QB. I drafted Kamara as a flyer if that helps and won the league last year but whatever...I am dufus. sorry. So stupid. You are correct Sir!

Joe could be great, no argument. Kamara wasn’t a flyer last year but I think you meant you drafted him as a rookie and won that year, and that’s fine. Yes, I am correct on the debate which was over the Bengals pass catchers.  I presented you with a case and then backed it up with irrefutable evidence that would be ruled for in any court of public or professional opinion, so yes I was correct. 
 

Anyway, back to Burrow. Even if he is all world, this season won’t reflect that. Not with zero preseason and a wacky camp. That’s very much speculation though and as with the nature of all speculation, it could be very wrong. People who know Burrow a lot better than me are very high on him. I just see too much of an uphill battle with all the COVID stuff around him.

[polecatt 399]

42 minutes ago, FlyinHeadlock said:

Burrow has some damn good targets around him. Elite WR's no but they are very solid. I would say one of the best lb for lb in the NFL. Better than the Saints, Chiefs, GB...I honestly can't think of another team with that many good WR's. It's normally great then suckage. 

A lot of that is dependent on how AJ Green is this season. If he's back to his old self, they have an excellent group of receivers. If he's not, then they're pretty average.

He's just played 6 games the past two seasons, so we'll see. Tyler Boyd is an excellent 2nd WR and decent 1st WR. It's also pretty dependent on how well and fast Tee Higgins develops.

Ross is an excellent deep threat but if he develops more into a well rounded WR, it will be big. They have the makings of a great receiving corps, it just has to come together.

Burrow could certainly be coming into a much worse scenario, that's for sure.

[FlyinHeadlock 459]

I said he would suck and be a league winner end of season. I still stand by that and will totally eat crow if that is not the case. He's a damn good QB. Just needs a little time.

[tanatastic 2,061]

1 minute ago, FlyinHeadlock said:

I said he would suck and be a league winner end of season. I still stand by that and will totally eat crow if that is not the case. He's a damn good QB. Just needs a little time.

Is he mobile? If he can run they are in business.

[FlyinHeadlock 459]

4 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Is he mobile? If he can run they are in business.

He is ##### mobile. Ain't no Ravens QB but the boy can move and is smart.

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, snatchit said:

I heard an interview of TJ Houshmanzada, he said John Ross is just like Tyreek Hill if not better...

"Just like," with 3400 fewer yards and 22 fewer TDs.  But hey, if a former Bengals player thinks the WR3 for the Bengals (you know, the team that sucked their way into the first pick in the draft last year) is just as good as the WR1 from the Chiefs (you know, the team that won the Super Bowl last year), then who am I to argue?

2 hours ago, snatchit said:

...and remember he was drafted 9th over all.

Remind me again where Charles Rogers was drafted...

2 hours ago, snatchit said:

James Jones says he wouldnt be surprised if Burrows doesnt hook up with AJ Green for 15 TD's.

As much as I would like to dismiss the opinion of a former football player, I have to agree; I wouldn't be surprised if Burrows doesn't hook up with AJ Green for 15 TDs either.  In fact, I EXPECT that he doesn't; it would surprise me if he did.

2 hours ago, snatchit said:

Tee Higgins comparable is AJ Green.

So he'll never play then?

2 hours ago, snatchit said:

I picked up Auden Tate off waivers last year... dudes a stud.

I hope you played in him the ONE game that he scored a TD, because other than that, I wouldn't use the word "stud" to describe a WR around #60 in PPR fantasy points per game.

2 hours ago, snatchit said:

He will have very capable receiving RB's, Oline will be better. Defense will be much much better, to get the ball back to them. Burrows is very accurate and has great pocket presence. They probably have the best WR core in the league. And your conclusion is... Doubtful ?????

Correct.

[weepaws 2,450]

Problem I have with the Bengals WRs is there lack of staying on the field to produce

Ross has only played 24 of 48 games, and Tate has had the same issue, Like posted above, A Green is the key if he can stay healthy. 

Boyd is a very good avg play maker wr, and Higgins the rookie could be a very good player, but without any preseason I think rookies will be behind a lot more than season past.  

Once again in a redraft, I can get two better qbs.  

[FlyinHeadlock 459]

5 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Problem I have with the Bengals WRs is there lack of staying on the field to produce

Ross has only played 24 of 48 games, and Tate has had the same issue, Like posted above, A Green is the key if he can stay healthy. 

Boyd is a very good avg play maker wr, and Higgins the rookie could be a very good player, but without any preseason I think rookies will be behind a lot more than season past.  

Once again in a redraft, I can two better qbs.  

In the playoffs he will be acceptable as a starter. That's as far as I go. By that time, he gets the reps and will be allowed uncommon flexibility to just play the damn game. He won't be getting benched. He throws lights out at that point just like LSU against Bama. No pressure. Just throw it. Not suppose to win anyway. 

[weepaws 2,450]

I agree with that, that he won’t get benched.  

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

On 8/1/2020 at 6:00 PM, FlyinHeadlock said:

I'm drafting him. He's better than Mahommes. The guy is immune to pressure. He can make all the throws, scramble if needed. He made Saban throw his ##### hands in the air several times. First year could suck like Peyton Manning but after that no way. He is the real deal.   

Let's see how this one ages.... come back to us all in 3 years and we can compare the two careers so far.   

[tanatastic 2,061]

On 8/1/2020 at 7:32 PM, AxeElf said:

"Just like," with 3400 fewer yards and 22 fewer TDs.  But hey, if a former Bengals player thinks the WR3 for the Bengals (you know, the team that sucked their way into the first pick in the draft last year) is just as good as the WR1 from the Chiefs (you know, the team that won the Super Bowl last year), then who am I to argue?

Remind me again where Charles Rogers was drafted...

As much as I would like to dismiss the opinion of a former football player, I have to agree; I wouldn't be surprised if Burrows doesn't hook up with AJ Green for 15 TDs either.  In fact, I EXPECT that he doesn't; it would surprise me if he did.

So he'll never play then?

I hope you played in him the ONE game that he scored a TD, because other than that, I wouldn't use the word "stud" to describe a WR around #60 in PPR fantasy points per game.

Correct.

Axe and you shall receive. Thorough demolition here.

Lol just saw the “15 tds to AJG part.”

[snatchit 108]

AJ Green has averaged a bit over 80 yrds a game in his career. If you remember there  was a toss up between he and Julio in drafts. He isnt beat up due to absence. He has been working with his conditioning coach for a long time. Playing for a contract, I expect good things for him this year. John Ross, who knows... the jury is still out. I just think there are some nice pieces in this offence for fantasy this year

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, snatchit said:

AJ Green has averaged a bit over 80 yrds a game in his career. If you remember there  was a toss up between he and Julio in drafts. He isnt beat up due to absence. He has been working with his conditioning coach for a long time. Playing for a contract, I expect good things for him this year. John Ross, who knows... the jury is still out. I just think there are some nice pieces in this offence for fantasy this year

It's really all going to depend on a rookie QB with a limited camp and no preseason.

If he's Mahomes, they're in business; if he's Leaf, not so much.

[Ray_T 587]

On 8/1/2020 at 8:37 PM, weepaws said:

Problem I have with the Bengals WRs is there lack of staying on the field to produce

Ross has only played 24 of 48 games, and Tate has had the same issue, Like posted above, A Green is the key if he can stay healthy. 

Boyd is a very good avg play maker wr, and Higgins the rookie could be a very good player, but without any preseason I think rookies will be behind a lot more than season past.  

Once again in a redraft, I can get two better qbs.  

I dont think there is any doubt.

This is a QB you pick high in a dynasty format or a keeper format where you start 2 QB's (or superflex league)

in redraft, hes a player you take late (or pull off of waivers) and stick on your bench.   if he starts putting up numbers, you can maybe get a few starts out of him against weaker opponents.

what you dont do is draft him high in a redraft league.   

Everything would need to go right for him and he'd need to have one of the best rookie years of all time to make that draft pick pay off.

better to not turn your high draft pick in a redraft league into a lottery ticket.   That's a good way to kiss your season goodbye.

 

[tanatastic 2,061]

Like I said, rookie with no preseason. Temper expectations and please throw out all these insane 30td 4K yd projections. Kid has talent and should finish the year stronger than he starts it. 
 

I specifically targeted chargers D and started them this week and got a decent 15. Kicker let them down, Bengals could have won even. 

[weepaws 2,450]

Congrats, after week one you won one.  

[SaintsInDome2006 128]

On 4/23/2020 at 7:25 PM, The Football Guru said:

Andrew Luck was unquestionably one of the most accurate quarterback prospects of the last decade.

Spot on with the Luck rookie comp.

[kilroy69 992]

Just like luck his arms gonna fall off. Burrow threw it 61 times in his first ever start. The all time record is 70 attempts and the most burrows has ever attempted previously at any level was 49.

[tanatastic 2,061]

51 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

Just like luck his arms gonna fall off. Burrow threw it 61 times in his first ever start. The all time record is 70 attempts and the most burrows has ever attempted previously at any level was 49.

His first start was week 1.

[Goggins 146]

On 9/15/2020 at 6:14 PM, tanatastic said:

Like I said, rookie with no preseason. Temper expectations and please throw out all these insane 30td 4K yd projections. Kid has talent and should finish the year stronger than he starts it. 
 

I specifically targeted chargers D and started them this week and got a decent 15. Kicker let them down, Bengals could have won even. 

Through 2 games:

4 TOT TD, 509 yds

Extrapolate to 16 games:

32 TOT TD, 4072 yds