Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

[The Football Guru 211]

Draft Profile

It's not hard to understand why Tagovailoa was considered such a slam-dunk prospect before 2019 and is still considered one by many, as his ability to throw with accuracy (69.2 career completion percentage), avoid negative plays (threw only 11 interceptions on 684 pass attempts and took only 26 sacks in his college career) and keep plays alive is exactly what GMs want at his position. However, even as the qualities that personnel people look for in quarterbacks in today's NFL keeps evolving, rolling the dice on an undersized player with a long injury history is still a losing bet more often than not. There is Pro Bowl talent here to be sure, but there is also significant bust potential as well, perhaps more than anyone cares to admit. It would be irresponsible for evaluators to pretend his durability isn't a big part of the equation and a major red flag. Whether Tagovailoa ends up being a steal at this spot depends heavily on whether his desire to not give up on any play (which has resulted in his ankle and hip injuries) can be coached out of him. As such, he is a complete wild-card at the moment - one capable of ascending to Steve Young-like heights if he is eventually able to quiet concerns about his durability or settling in as a less mobile version of Mark Brunell.

What does it mean in redraft? Tagovailoa's recovery from hip surgery has gone about as smoothly as possible, according to multiple reports. With Ryan Fitzpatrick serving as the bridge, it's more likely than not Tagovailoa spends roughly a month on the sideline (especially with the offseason program and possibly even training camp being in question due to COVID-19) before he takes over the reins. Because he is unlikely to be a Week 1 starter, fantasy owners can probably leave him on waivers to start the season in most 12-team leagues. Even if he gets promoted around midseason, the combination of supporting cast, a questionable line and his injury history makes him a likely low-end QB2 at best.

What does it mean for dynasty? Check back Friday morning and again after the draft.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Complete trash, damaged goods. Mariota at best.