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The Football Guru

Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Henry Ruggs III, Raiders

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Ruggs was never his team's lead receiver in three years at Alabama, yet perhaps no player dictated coverage for the Crimson Tide more than he did. He is the rare deep threat with sure hands, yet Alabama never really went out of its way to take advantage of either trait (only four catches on balls that traveled at least 20 yards in 2019, per Pro Football Focus). Crimson Tide quarterbacks enjoyed a 151.4 passer rating on throws in Ruggs' direction over his career, yet he was never able to be anything more than his team's third-most productive receiver. It's hard to put too much blame on his shoulders, as Ruggs played with the likes of Calvin Ridley, Jerry Jeudy, Robert Foster, DeVonta Smith, Irv Smith Jr. and Jaylen Waddle during his college days.

The problem with Ruggs is that it is always dangerous for evaluators to expect a player to be able to do something in the pros that he never did in college - lead a receiving corps, in this case. Every NFL team wants at least one player capable of being able to outrun everyone else and dictate coverage, but Ruggs struggled to get off press enough against the best SEC corners - and Jeudy is so advanced as a route-runner - and didn’t do near enough in contested-catch situations that I find myself not liking this pick. Ruggs' 4.27 speed is going to make sure he has the respect of every defender, but the Raiders may end up getting disappointed here if they are expecting the next Tyreek Hill (as opposed to the my comp for him, John Brown).

What does it mean in redraft? With only Tyrell Williams to battle as the team's top outside receiver (Hunter Renfrow should remain the unquestioned option in the slot), Ruggs should take over as the top receiving option before the end of 2020. That doesn't mean he's ready to be an immediate fantasy starter in three-receiver leagues, however, as Derek Carr is not the epitome of a deep thrower. Considering he'll slot in behind Darren Waller and maybe even Renfrow in the passing game pecking order, he figures to be a high-upside, low-floor WR4 in 2020.

What does it mean for dynasty? More landing spots will have to be determined before we can make a definitive call here, but his path to lead WR status in Las Vegas figures to make him a popular pick at the end of the first round. (Will update again after the draft is completed.)

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Can’t wait to see how he looks and fits into the Raiders system during the preseason.  

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He's probably not the WR that should have been taken first, but we know the Raiders love to draft based on 40 times.

Ruggs seems like the most likely of the big 3 to be a bust, or at least not live up to the hype. That said, he'll at the very least make some big plays, which in itself makes him valuable in fantasy. It shouldn't take him long to be the Raiders top WR. He has a good, not great, QB in Carr. We know Gruden loves his team to throw it too. He'll be an interesting pick for WR as a rookie. Speed is probably the easiest transition from college to the NFL. I think he's worth a shot as a WR3 or flex play to have in your starting lineup most weeks out of the gate. He may be a feast or famine player for a while kind of like a young Desean Jackson, until he learns the NFL completely. While he's bound to have some off weeks, but that kind of weekly upside tends to find it's way into your lineup.

I think he's an earlier mid round pick in redraft and one of the top players off the board in dynasty

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Think he landed in a very good spot , like it was posted, he’s going to be the Raiders wr1 right off the bat. 

Wr3 - wr4 for me.  

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On paper offense is shaping up .

Jacobs 

Williams 

Hunter

Ruggs

I wish they had something better than an average QB 

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I would include Waller.  

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