Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts

[The Football Guru 211]

Draft Profile

Taylor owns several NCAA records, including most career 200-yard rushing games (12), most rushing yards by a freshman (1,977), most rushing yards through a sophomore season (4,171) and most rushing yards through a junior season (6,171). Maybe just as impressively, Taylor owns the second-, fifth- and sixth-best individual rushing seasons in school history. (Perhaps none of his 2019 runs define him better than this one.) He shows patience, steps through a couple of arm tackles, makes a slight jump cut to dodge another tackle in space and then carries a couple of defenders for about 10 yards.) It's almost ridiculous how often those four "abilities" show up on his tape, and it's a good thing for him because all four of those qualities tend to be effective in or carry over to the pro game as well.

Taylor's heavy usage (968 college touches, including 926 carries) in college isn't overly concerning by itself, but it is more of an issue when considering his propensity for fumbling (18 fumbles - 15 lost - in 41 career games). The Colts probably need to wrap their mind around Taylor being an early-down workhorse that initially needs to come off the field in critical passing-down situations. The New Jersey native can catch the ball, but dedication to his craft - not to mention his new position coach - will play a large role as to whether his career moves along the Frank Gore and Mark Ingram trajectory. How quickly it happens will depend on how quickly he can correct/curb his weaknesses in the passing game and with ball security.

What does it mean in redraft? While Marlon Mack isn't an elite back by any stretch, the fit in Indianapolis is curious for Taylor. Mack isn't going to be the third-down back with Nyheim Hines around, but he's too good to be a true backup. With that said, the rookie is too good to sit behind Mack for very long, so he probably needs to be viewed as an RB3 right away with high-end RB2 upside if it is clear during the camp/preseason he is on his way to grabbing the starting job.

What does it mean for dynasty? Taylor should be viewed as a top-three pick in rookie drafts and can make a strong case to go at 1.01.

[jrokh 568]

Late second/early third rd pick. Behind that line think Nick Chubb like production...

[The Football Guru 211]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Late second/early third rd pick. Behind that line think Nick Chubb like production...

So you think Mack just sits? I find that hard to believe at the moment.

Chubb could catch a little (although UGA didn't use him that way very often) and didn't fumble like Taylor does. I think Chubb-like production is possible for Taylor eventually, but I don't see it happening right away.

[jrokh 568]

16 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

So you think Mack just sits? I find that hard to believe at the moment.

Chubb could catch a little (although UGA didn't use him that way very often) and didn't fumble like Taylor does. I think Chubb-like production is possible for Taylor eventually, but I don't see it happening right away.

Chubb's rookie year he sat behind Carlos Hyde for almost two months before they realized he was just much better. I don't think it will take Taylor as long as it took Chubb.

[The Football Guru 211]

1 minute ago, jrokh said:

Chubb's rookie year he sat behind Carlos Hyde for almost two months before they realized he was just much better. I don't think it will take Taylor as long as it took Chubb.

I can respect that, but Mack is a taller mountain to climb than Hyde.

Not saying you're wrong about the Chubb-Taylor comp, but Chubb is a more complete prospect (with fewer glaring holes) and Mack is a more dynamic runner than Hyde.

[jrokh 568]

54 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

I can respect that, but Mack is a taller mountain to climb than Hyde.

Not saying you're wrong about the Chubb-Taylor comp, but Chubb is a more complete prospect (with fewer glaring holes) and Mack is a more dynamic runner than Hyde.

I guess we’ll see. I doubt the Colts traded up for Taylor because they believe in Mack, and why would they?

[The Football Guru 211]

18 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I guess we’ll see. I doubt the Colts traded up for Taylor because they believe in Mack, and why would they?

I didn't realize they traded up. I get so locked in with what I do here (and I fall behind quickly on Friday and Saturday) that I don't get to actually get to follow the comings and goings during the draft until I go back and watch it.

I would imagine they traded up in part because they had a top-25 grade on Taylor. Mack's not a bozo and Taylor isn't quite Chubb. With that said, Taylor will eventually get featured; I just don't think it will be Week 1.

[AxeElf 787]

At least Rivers will still have a Wisconsin RB behind him.

Seems like all these backs that dominated at Wisconsin get to the NFL and either bust entirely or take a couple of years to get up to speed.

'Course, I still have some degree of sour grapes that the Chiefs didn't draft Taylor.  Or Swift.  Or Dobbins.  So there's that.

[weepaws 2,456]

I think Taylor flat out take the job.  

Mack was still only 16th in non ppr in avg points per game.  

Colts really wanted Taylor, Mack better learn how to catch the ball real quick.  

[The Football Guru 211]

Some thoughts from Colts personnel on Taylor here:

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/colts-insider/2020/04/26/nfl-draft-2020-colts-scouts-divulge-what-they-love-9-newest-players/3030598001/

[weepaws 2,456]

Colts did a great job getting Rivers a lot of talent to perform.  

 

[LoOnAtIk 75]

On 4/24/2020 at 10:29 PM, The Football Guru said:

I can respect that, but Mack is a taller mountain to climb than Hyde.

Not saying you're wrong about the Chubb-Taylor comp, but Chubb is a more complete prospect (with fewer glaring holes) and Mack is a more dynamic runner than Hyde.

I think the comparison to Chubb is pretty spot on, at least pre-draft projections. Chubb has been great in the NFL but in terms of combine and college success, Chubb and Taylor were both EXCELLENT. Both drafted early 2nd. 
 

The main takeaway is that they traded up and selected him relatively early. That should immediately tell you that Mack’s days are numbered. The front office and the coaching staff will ensure that Taylor has all the tools to succeed because they invested a lot in him. 

[LoOnAtIk 75]

If Taylor can fix his fumble issues and most importantly learn how to pass protect, he can definitely be a starter by week 1. If the coaches feel Taylor protects Rivers better than Mack does, I can certainly see him starting week 1.

[The Football Guru 211]

5 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I think the comparison to Chubb is pretty spot on, at least pre-draft projections. Chubb has been great in the NFL but in terms of combine and college success, Chubb and Taylor were both EXCELLENT. Both drafted early 2nd. 
 

The main takeaway is that they traded up and selected him relatively early. That should immediately tell you that Mack’s days are numbered. The front office and the coaching staff will ensure that Taylor has all the tools to succeed because they invested a lot in him. 

I think it's pretty clear that I believe Taylor will take the job ... eventually. But Taylor does have significant concerns/holes in his game, more than Chubb did coming out. If we recall, Chubb's biggest concern coming out was his knee. With that said, I think Taylor will overcome his issues, I just have my doubts he'll be the man in Week 1.