Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB AJ Dillon, Packers

[The Football Guru 211]

Height/Weight: 6' 0"/247
College: Boston College
NFL Comp: LeGarrette Blount

NFL fans may remember the last bruising Boston College runner to enter the league with less than fond memories, but Dillon brings a little bit more to the table than Andre Williams. Dillon isn't a lost cause as a receiver (he can contribute in the screen game but his pass pro needs a ton of work), is almost 30 pounds heavier (247) than the weight Williams played at, a hair faster (4.53) and more explosive (41-inch vertical, 10' 11" broad). The Eagles' all-time leading rusher also has a bit of wiggle to his game - admittedly not much - and isn't quite the straight-line runner his dimensions suggest he should be either, much like a young Blount or maybe even Leonard Fournette.

Like many big college backs transitioning to the pros, however, he has been overworked (845 carries), has much work to do as a receiver and is at his best between the tackles. Dillon's bulldozing running style and ability to handle 30 carries could have easily made him a top 40-50 pick as recently as 10 years ago, but he will almost certainly be viewed as a committee back in today's NFL - one who should get the bulk of his work on early downs, four-minute situations and near the goal line.

What does it mean in redraft? Despite already having Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams on the roster and capably sharing the load, the Packers add a two-down thumper to the mix. Dillon isn't going to overtake Jones, but he stands a pretty good chance of stealing most of the goal-line work in Green Bay. Although he could push for a handful of touchdowns in that role with the Pack, it's hard to see him being much more than an RB4 barring a rash of injuries in front of him.

What does it mean for dynasty? The offense makes Dillon worth investing in, but he needs an injury to Jones or Williams just to get a shot at regular work. Add the fact he isn't going to be a heavy contributor in the passing game and you have a recipe for a good runner going in the third round of rookie drafts.

[RedzoneMonster 102]

There goes my chances of keeping Aaron Jones..

[tanatastic 2,061]

Another position they don’t need. At least he has some potential value for the team. Hooray, they didn’t completely punt two rounds in a row. For this regime that’s saying something right now.

[weepaws 2,459]

Wow this is a very interesting pick, I think Dillon will challenge for a lead role right away.  

He wont surpass Jones as their rb1, but he’ll out perform him in some games. 

Tough blow if you own Jones in a keeper.  

 

[polecatt 402]

Green Bay already has what it needs at RB for the most part with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.

Jones gets most of the work while Williams spells Jones and gets work in the passing game.

So it looks like the likely role for Dillon is a short yardage kind of guy. Which means he will have some value in fantasy as a goal line RB.

Jones scored a lot of TDs last season but it looks like that role could go to Dillon. If you know how to use a good goal line RB on your team, he's not a bad guy to have on the bench.

I could see him getting double digit TDs but a limited amount of yards.

In dynasty he's probably a first or second round pick. His TDs could mean he's somebody you want to keep around and hope he takes over at some point as the RB1 in Green Bay.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

This pick shows me that teams are starting to just go with RBBC because it's cheaper.  I think this, plus the Love pick, are exactly the right thing to do in today's NFL.  QB's can come in and produce Day 1, because the game is easier.  So, it's best to go with RBBC to keep every backs' cost down, have a cheap QB, and then spend your money on the OLine and DLine.  The Packers are preparing for 2022 and life without Rodgers.