Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Buccaneers

[The Football Guru 210]

Height/Weight: 5' 10"/214
College: Vanderbilt
NFL Comp: A more explosive BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Although it seemingly has no place in today's game, there are few things I like to see more than a running back run in between the tackles and consistently pick up yards after contact. To that end, 743 out of Vaughn's 1,028 rushing yards in 2019 came after contact, according to Pro Football Focus. It speaks to his ruggedness that he was not only a 1,000-yard rusher on back-to-back losing teams at Vanderbilt the last two seasons, but that he did so behind a poor offensive line. There is some pre-Cleveland Kareem Hunt to his game - a decisive, mostly straight-ahead and powerful runner with underrated receiving skills.

With that said, Vaughn probably won't get the chance to be a three-down back in the league, and he isn't the James White kind of pass-catching option so many expected Tampa Bay to pursue in the draft. Whereas Hunt has a little bounce to him, Vaughn is not overly creative in the open field. He rarely tries to avoid contact. He has also been poor - to put it kindly - as a pass-blocker (17 pressures on 229 career pass-blocking snaps, per PFF). He has three-down potential in the NFL, but it's more likely he'll be limited to committee work - he could be the preferred option of the goal line - in Tampa Bay.

What does it mean in redraft? Vaughn is a threat to Ronald Jones' early-down role, but Jones is the better player. It is entirely possible HC Bruce Arians and OC Byron Leftwich simply rotate the two and goes with the hot hand (as much as it pains me to say that phrase). Vaughn should be viewed as a handcuff - one capable of moving up to RB3 territory if Jones goes down.

What does it mean for dynasty? Vaughn possesses more upside than Peyton Barber, but he could end occupying the same role as he did in 2018. Jones' owners may value him slightly higher than most, but non-Jones' owners are justified taking him in the middle of the second round of rookie drafts.

[weepaws 2,450]

I can see Jones being used in the J White role after this pick, think Vaughn could lead the Bucs in rush att.  

 

[The Football Guru 210]

9 hours ago, weepaws said:

I can see Jones being used in the J White role after this pick, think Vaughn could lead the Bucs in rush att.  

 

I'd love this to be the case, but Jones has struggled massively as a receiver and in pass pro. For better or worse, Vaughn is pretty much the same. I think Dare O. is the guy owners want right now, at least at the moment.

[weepaws 2,450]

I would agree, Jones as simply struggled in every faze of his time in the nfl. 

As a recall he was pulled last season in at least one game for making bone head mistakes. 

But this well be his third nfl season, and seems like the  choice of the three Rbs to fit that role. 

And it well be a big role with the goat at Qb.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

I think it's just a matter of time until Vaughn takes over the primary back duties from Jones.  If there's a full camp, I think Vaughn beats out Jones as the primary back in the offseason.  I'm under the impression that Jones isn't going to all of a sudden learn how to pass block, all of a sudden learn how to not put the ball on the ground, and all of a sudden learn the offense.  Now, it's possible that Vaughn was a bad pick and that he can't play, but for some reason, I'm giving the Bucs' scouting department the benefit of the doubt.

[The Football Guru 210]

 

 

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3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm giving the Bucs' scouting department the benefit of the doubt.

Now why would you do that? 

Vaughn impressed me as a runner. With that said, he did give up 17 pressures on 229 career pass-blocking snaps. I know Arians doesn't believe in sinking draft capital into the RB position, but I do find it interesting he drafted a guy who was probably the most like the RoJo I remember from last season. Vaughn is good enough to take the job and will be a player this regime is invested in, but it's also notable he's three months older than RoJo. I think it's RBBC for most of the year unless one of them really goes crazy.

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

LOL, I know, right.  

 

I've given Licht a lot of crap over the years, and it's mainly because of draft picks like Winston, Hargreaves, and Aguayo... but he did build a team that despite having one of the worst QB's in the NFL, they were competitive.  Sure, the homer in me says the Bucs are Super Bowl contenders, but you know what, so is Vegas.  They're one of the 5 highest teams in the league.  Even from a talent standpoint, they have one of the better offenses in the NFL.  Over the last half of the season last year, they were one of the 10 best defenses in the league.  Despite their QB turning the ball over 23 times, they were 5-3 in their last 8 games.  Tom Brady is coming to a team that is actually pretty good.  A team that Jason Licht  did build.

 

I don't really know much about Vaughn, but apparently the Bucs think highly of him.  It's possible they're planning on taking the approach of "interchangeable parts" and finding backs that can catch the ball out of the backfield... but not necessarily great pass catchers.  Bruce Arians has said that he believes that Vaughn is a "can do everything back", so my guess is that they're going to use him all over the field.  He also said that he thinks he can be an every down back (at the 10:15 mark in the video).  I've read that Vaughn was used in the slot quite a bit at Vanderbilt.  I'm really not that concerned with the QB pressures, as I think it's safe to say that in the SEC, Vanderbilt was over matched offensively, defensively, and in coaching.  I think proper NFL coaching can help with that.  When I see a guy who went to a PAC-10 school, in a pro offense, and now 2 years in the NFL under his belt being bad at pass pro being similar to a guy who was completely over matched in the SEC, I'm thinking that the new guys upside is higher.

 

I think there definitely could be a RBBC approach in Tampa this year, at least early on.  But I think at some point, because I'm personally not that high on Jones, is that Vaughn will separate himself and get the bulk of the touches.  I think that around mid season, we can could see a 60/25/15 split in touches with the order being Vaughn, Obungowale, then Jones.

[AxeElf 787]

5 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm under the impression that Jones isn't going to all of a sudden learn how to pass block, all of a sudden learn how to not put the ball on the ground, and all of a sudden learn the offense.

No, not all of a sudden.

Over the course of his first three years in the NFL, perhaps...

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

41 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

No, not all of a sudden.

Over the course of his first three years in the NFL, perhaps...

Well, if it happens over the course of 3 years, it will have to happen all of a sudden because in the first 2, he's made zero improvement in these areas.  He got benched just last year on a couple of occassions for failure to accomplish this.

[The Football Guru 210]

4 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Well, if it happens over the course of 3 years, it will have to happen all of a sudden because in the first 2, he's made zero improvement in these areas.  He got benched just last year on a couple of occassions for failure to accomplish this.

There is a case that can be made (somewhat weak, I admit) that since Tom gets rid of the ball so quickly enough, blitz pickup will be less of a concern for Arians/Leftwich. Given the presence of all the Bucs' weapons now, I'm not sure how defenses can afford to go blitz-crazy. I have to believe the best runner will play on certain running downs and Dare/Calais will handle the majority of work on passing downs.

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

Just now, The Football Guru said:

There is a case that can be made (somewhat weak, I admit) that since Tom gets rid of the ball so quickly enough, blitz pickup will be less of a concern for Arians/Leftwich. Given the presence of all the Bucs' weapons now, I'm not sure how defenses can afford to go blitz-crazy. I have to believe the best runner will play on certain running downs and Dare/Calais will handle the majority of work on passing downs.

Certainly a possibility.  I don't discount that possibility.  If someone wants to bank on that, I won't tell them they're wrong, just simply tell them that I believe it's wishful thinking.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Well, if it happens over the course of 3 years, it will have to happen all of a sudden because in the first 2, he's made zero improvement in these areas.

Nonsense.  I thought you followed the team?

He went from 30 touches as a rookie to 203 touches last year, and basically demoted Peyton Barber from the top 25-ish fantasy RB that he was over the first 6 or 7  weeks of the season into a basically fantasy-irrelevant backup over the remainder of 2019.

Granted, he's probably not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but he has had two different offenses to learn in each of his first two NFL seasons, and he definitely learned enough of Arians' offense over the past season to become a legitimate lead RB in that system.  To say he made "zero improvement" is just silly.  Same goes for pass protection.  He may not yet (or ever) be the greatest at it, but you can't say that in the course of 610 NFL snaps he has made "zero improvement."

And 2 lost fumbles in over 230 touches?  That's not exceptional, but it's not exactly horrible, either.  17 other NFL RBs had 2 or more lost fumbles last year (including Chris Carson, Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Carlos Hyde, Austin Ekeler, Ezekiel Elliott, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Aaron Jones, LeSean McCoy, Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson).  Even if he DOES show "zero improvement" in that area, 2 lost fumbles in a season isn't going to be significant enough to keep an otherwise starting RB on the bench.

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

14 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Nonsense.  I thought you followed the team?

He went from 30 touches as a rookie to 203 touches last year, and basically demoted Peyton Barber from the top 25-ish fantasy RB that he was over the first 6 or 7  weeks of the season into a basically fantasy-irrelevant backup over the remainder of 2019.

Granted, he's probably not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but he has had two different offenses to learn in each of his first two NFL seasons, and he definitely learned enough of Arians' offense over the past season to become a legitimate lead RB in that system.  To say he made "zero improvement" is just silly.  Same goes for pass protection.  He may not yet (or ever) be the greatest at it, but you can't say that in the course of 610 NFL snaps he has made "zero improvement."

And 2 lost fumbles in over 230 touches?  That's not exceptional, but it's not exactly horrible, either.  17 other NFL RBs had 2 or more lost fumbles last year (including Chris Carson, Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Carlos Hyde, Austin Ekeler, Ezekiel Elliott, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Aaron Jones, LeSean McCoy, Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson).  Even if he DOES show "zero improvement" in that area, 2 lost fumbles in a season isn't going to be significant enough to keep an otherwise starting RB on the bench.

Wow, that's just really terrible analysis.  The two systems are relatively identical.  Wait, are you telling me that a 2nd year player (who was drafted in the 2nd round), got more playing time in that 2nd year?  Holy cow, that's breaking news!!!  Dude, just stop while you're behind.  See, I do follow the team, that's why I know that "stats" are empty.  Because I follow the team, I know he got benched on multiple occasions for lapses regarding missed blocks, dropping the ball, fumbles, and wrong reads.  Go back and look at games 10, 12, and 13 last year.  Notice the snap counts of 35% and less.  The reason is because he's getting benched.  That's why I'm saying zero improvement.  I'm not talking about his stats.  Like I said, the stats are empty because they were generated in a high production offense and there was little competition for his job.  As more/better competition is brought in, Jones' production will drop.  IF Vaughn is a good player, Jones will be an after thought.

 

Simply put, Jones' production is in the hands of Ke'shawn Vaughn, not Ronald Jones.

[polecatt 399]

He's got potential, although Jones is the lead RB going into the season. I think Jones though, is best suited for being the RB2 in an RB by committee.

That would mean Vaughn could be the RB1 in Tampa if he does well.

He's a decent guy to stash on the bench in redraft and hope for the best.

In Dynasty, pretty much the same. He'll be a high pick.

[AxeElf 787]

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Because I follow the team, I know he got benched on multiple occasions for lapses regarding missed blocks, dropping the ball, fumbles, and wrong reads.  Go back and look at games 10, 12, and 13 last year.  Notice the snap counts of 35% and less.  The reason is because he's getting benched.

All part of the learning process.

Kind of like the one you're in...

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

All part of the learning process.

Kind of like the one you're in...

Like I said before, if he learns, it'll have to be "all of a sudden".  I'm betting against it.

[AxeElf 787]

23 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Like I said before, if he learns, it'll have to be "all of a sudden".  I'm betting against it.

Like I said before, it's not "all of a sudden."  You yourself have been pointing out steps he has taken over the last 2 years in the learning process to become the lead RB for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers--including making mistakes and experiencing the consequences thereof.

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

No, what I pointed out was the LACK of progress that he's made, so apparently you're not comprehending what I said.

[polecatt 399]

21 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

There is a case that can be made (somewhat weak, I admit) that since Tom gets rid of the ball so quickly enough, blitz pickup will be less of a concern for Arians/Leftwich. Given the presence of all the Bucs' weapons now, I'm not sure how defenses can afford to go blitz-crazy. I have to believe the best runner will play on certain running downs and Dare/Calais will handle the majority of work on passing downs.

I don't know about that. It may play out that way sometimes but even if it does, I don't think that's something they're going to want to bank on.

[AxeElf 787]

31 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

No, what I pointed out was the LACK of progress that he's made, so apparently you're not comprehending what I said.

Apparently you don't comprehend that the learning process is not a smooth curve, but rather a successive process of trying, failing, correcting, and trying again--and you have been quite vocal in describing the learning process that has been experienced by Ronald Jones II.

He HAS been learning.  It remains to be seen if he has learned enough to maintain a lead RB role in the NFL, but if he has, it certainly will not have been "all of a sudden."

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Apparently you don't comprehend that the learning process is not a smooth curve, but rather a successive process of trying, failing, correcting, and trying again--and you have been quite vocal in describing the learning process that has been experienced by Ronald Jones II.

He HAS been learning.  It remains to be seen if he has learned enough to maintain a lead RB role in the NFL, but if he has, it certainly will not have been "all of a sudden."

Whatever you say dude.