Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Zack Moss, Bills

[The Football Guru 211]

College: Utah
Height/Weight: 5' 9"/222
NFL Comp: Chris Carson

Perhaps more than any other runner in this year's draft, Moss runs with a grudge and isn't overly concerned about how his body will feel the next day. According to Pro Football Focus, he ranks second in this draft class in missed forced tackles with 89 in 2019. For a 222-pound back who runs with such force and possesses such high-end contact balance, his vision and ability to change direction (not as in cutting on a dime so much as he has quick feet) is highly impressive. However, anyone who pegs him as just a physical runner is selling him short.

He's not going to be a player that a play-caller is going to want to flex out as a receiver very often, but he is a more than capable outlet receiver that will create some chaos in the open field when defensive backs are forced to tackle him (33 broken tackles on 66 career catches, per PFF). He won't be among the leaders in 20-plus yard runs very often, but he'll break the spirit of the defense on a regular basis. With Moss, the question isn't so much if he is capable of being a featured back but rather if can punishment often enough over the course of his first contract so that he can make it to a second. Buffalo may be saving him from himself with this pick, however, as Devin Singletary will be the primary back for the foreseeable future.

What does it mean in redraft? The Bills are likely eyeing Moss to fill the role Frank Gore occupied last year. While he's not an immediate threat to Singletary's starting job, Moss is a threat to the 15 touches per game the latter was likely eyeing before this weekend. The rookie should handle the bulk of short-yardage and goal-line work in addition to being the clear lead back should Singletary get hurt. With only T.J. Yeldon behind Singletary, Moss has a shot to be a high-upside handcuff and is a solid RB4 investment in 2020.

What does it mean for dynasty? Moss is an a bit of a no man's land for dynasty, as Singletary is likely to remain the lead back even if this backfield becomes a committee at some point. As such, owners are advised to consider Moss in the early part of the second round in rookie drafts.

[weepaws 2,459]

This pick makes me nervous about the value I have placed on Singletary. 

[The Football Guru 211]

9 hours ago, weepaws said:

This pick makes me nervous about the value I have placed on Singletary. 

It should. Singletary could slip into RB3/flex territory, although I think RB2 is still where he winds up.

[weepaws 2,459]

Yeah going into this draft I had him as a high rb2 non ppr, their was simply to other rb on the Bills to be concern about.  

His non ppr avg per game last season would make him a low rb2, so I had finishing about that, but I’m agreeing with you, a high rb3 might be more in line. 

Moss I think we’ll be more productive then Gore was last season, Gore only a avg 3.6 per rush att last season and scored two tds, Moss well outperform those numbers.  

Thanks Guru. 

[polecatt 402]

Moss has a good shot to be a valuable rookie fantasy RB.

I don't see him being an RB1 unless Singletary goes down. He'll get some touches and probably score a decent amount of TDs.

Frank Gore had good value for a while. Moss should be better.

I see him being a good RB off the bench and possible flex play.

In dynasty, he has the same value and is a good guy to hold onto because that spot is likely to remain the same for the next few seasons, and of course, it could possibly get better.