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Mike FF Today

Dynasty Rankings

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8 hours ago, Mike FF Today said:

Posted Doug's latest dynasty rankings, rookies included. Top 40 QBs, 80 RBs, 80 WRs, 40 TEs. 

Drew Brees at No.27? I know he's getting old but damn!¬†ūü§®

Hey, Brees will probably be in a booth and Rivers will probably be coaching a high school team in Mississippi next season. Dynasty doesn't care if you've thrown for 70K yards in your career ... if you've made it there, you're old!

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Brees can't even throw a 15 yard out any more.

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3 hours ago, nobody said:

Brees can't even throw a 15 yard out any more.

No one was worse than manning when denver won their most recent SB.

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Guru you're not worried about the long term effect of McCaffrey's work load effecting his dynasty value.

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5 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

Guru you're not worried about the long term effect of McCaffrey's work load effecting his dynasty value.

As unworried as one can be with a player coming off a 400-plus touch season. Look, just about every running back is going to go down at some point. But as far as the history of 400-touch backs, McCaffrey is the only one ever to do so on fewer than 300 carries. Add to that the fact he doesn't take a lot of direct shots and I think he can hold up well for a while longer with high-touch seasons.

Yes, I would expect some injuries down the road. But as a guy entering his age-24 season, I think we can expect at least two more very good years. At running back in dynasty, that's about you can hope for.

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9 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

As unworried as one can be with a player coming off a 400-plus touch season. Look, just about every running back is going to go down at some point. But as far as the history of 400-touch backs, McCaffrey is the only one ever to do so on fewer than 300 carries. Add to that the fact he doesn't take a lot of direct shots and I think he can hold up well for a while longer with high-touch seasons.

Yes, I would expect some injuries down the road. But as a guy entering his age-24 season, I think we can expect at least two more very good years. At running back in dynasty, that's about you can hope for.

cool thanks

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12 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

As unworried as one can be with a player coming off a 400-plus touch season. Look, just about every running back is going to go down at some point. But as far as the history of 400-touch backs, McCaffrey is the only one ever to do so on fewer than 300 carries. Add to that the fact he doesn't take a lot of direct shots and I think he can hold up well for a while longer with high-touch seasons.

Yes, I would expect some injuries down the road. But as a guy entering his age-24 season, I think we can expect at least two more very good years. At running back in dynasty, that's about you can hope for.

I think the measures being taken due to the pandemic will help offset some of the effects as well.  He will get more time to rest without all of the mandatory activities, and possibly fewer games depending on how long this goes.

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21 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

Guru you're not worried about the long term effect of McCaffrey's work load effecting his dynasty value.

It's hard to put much more than a 2 year value on a RB for dynasty unless they're a rookie.

Out of McCaffrey, Zeke, Barkley, Kamara, not one of them can I say with much confidence they will still be a solid fantasy RB1 in 3 years

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On 5/8/2020 at 11:08 AM, Mike FF Today said:

Posted Doug's latest dynasty rankings, rookies included. Top 40 QBs, 80 RBs, 80 WRs, 40 TEs. 

Drew Brees at No.27? I know he's getting old but damn!¬†ūü§®

Yet Aaron Rodgers is 9th, I'm not sure he's the 9th best fantasy QB for this upcoming season

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6 hours ago, polecatt said:

Yet Aaron Rodgers is 9th, I'm not sure he's the 9th best fantasy QB for this upcoming season

Brees is almost five years older and will probably retire at the end of this season. Rodgers is still playing at a high level. As I look at the players behind him on the list, I can't say with a great deal of certainty that I trust any of them more over the next 2-3 years. Are Daniel Jones and Josh Allen still starting? They should be, but I wouldn't call it a lock. Same with Mayfield. How many games will Tua miss over that time? I don't trust those guys in the same way like I do Rodgers over the next few years.

Rest assured, Rodgers will probably not rank higher than No. 9 on this list moving forward. As for your comment about Rodgers, I don't think he's finished lower than ninth in redraft in any of his last five healthy seasons. I recognize his game-to-game consistency hasn't been great lately (especially last year), but I think I'd be thrilled if I got him as a back-end QB1. A lot of things went right for GB last year (Davante Adams' injury was an exception) in order for the Packers to reduce their reliance on Rodgers. I'm not sure that happens again in 2020, which would likely increase their need for him to bail them out. Plus, how much of last year was Adams not being right for about half of the season?

I think Rodgers' best days are behind him, but what happens if he goes the Brady route and plays at a high level into his 40s? It means I wrote him off too early as a dynasty asset way (and maybe cost his potential owners a title or two in the process) in order to chase a shiny object.

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11 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Brees is almost five years older and will probably retire at the end of this season. Rodgers is still playing at a high level. As I look at the players behind him on the list, I can't say with a great deal of certainty that I trust any of them more over the next 2-3 years. Are Daniel Jones and Josh Allen still starting? They should be, but I wouldn't call it a lock. Same with Mayfield. How many games will Tua miss over that time? I don't trust those guys in the same way like I do Rodgers over the next few years.

Rest assured, Rodgers will probably not rank higher than No. 9 on this list moving forward. As for your comment about Rodgers, I don't think he's finished lower than ninth in redraft in any of his last five healthy seasons. I recognize his game-to-game consistency hasn't been great lately (especially last year), but I think I'd be thrilled if I got him as a back-end QB1. A lot of things went right for GB last year (Davante Adams' injury was an exception) in order for the Packers to reduce their reliance on Rodgers. I'm not sure that happens again in 2020, which would likely increase their need for him to bail them out. Plus, how much of last year was Adams not being right for about half of the season?

I think Rodgers' best days are behind him, but what happens if he goes the Brady route and plays at a high level into his 40s? It means I wrote him off too early as a dynasty asset way (and maybe cost his potential owners a title or two in the process) in order to chase a shiny object.

The biggest problem is that the Packers seem to be transitioning to a more run-based offense.  With the fantasy point margins between the QB5 and the QB15 being typically about two points, it doesn't take a whole lot to turn a fantasy QB1 into a fantasy QB2--and that's probly where Rodgers will find himself in 2020.

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That’s not news , since Rodgers was only three points above being a qb2 last season.  

Thanks. 

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2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

The biggest problem is that the Packers seem to be transitioning to a more run-based offense.  With the fantasy point margins between the QB5 and the QB15 being typically about two points, it doesn't take a whole lot to turn a fantasy QB1 into a fantasy QB2--and that's probly where Rodgers will find himself in 2020.

Please reread what I said above. A lot of things went right for GB last year to have its defense and running game work out as well as it did. Expecting a carbon copy of last year may be a lot, especially if game script isn't as favorable. I get GB seems to be transitioning to more of a run-based offense, but how much of that was Adams getting and playing hurt? Ten percent? 30? 50? I also get there's not a lot of difference between QB5-15, but we're talking about trusting a guy over the next 2-3 years, not just 2020.

I think most of us will agree GB was a more run-heavy team last year. Rodgers was still the QB8 and that was w/o a healthy Davante for almost half of the season. But the biggest issue I have with a couple of the recent posts is the focus on 2020. The focus on dynasty is almost as much on 2021 and 2022 as 2020. My QB9 dynasty ranking reflects my belief in him over the next 2-3 years as much as it does on his ability to be a back-end QB1 this year. Whether he is the QB5 or QB15 this year is somewhat irrelevant. Will he be a trustworthy back-end QB1 over the next 2-3 years? I think so. Of the other guys I have in Tier 3, he's certainly the one I trust the most to do it.

Full disclosure: I had Rodgers as low as 13th at one time during the rankings process, so it's not as if I don't see where you are coming from.

If you trust Daniel Jones will stay healthy and correct his fumble problems, if you believe Josh Allen will stay healthy with all of the running he does and significantly improve his accuracy, if you believe Baker's problems were solely o-line and injury-related (i.e. OBJ), if you believe Stafford's back won't be an issue or if you believe Tua will stay healthy and set the league on fire in 2021, put them ahead of Rodgers.

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40 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

I get GB seems to be transitioning to more of a run-based offense, but how much of that was Adams getting and playing hurt? Ten percent? 30? 50?

GB seems to be transitioning to more of a run-based offense partially because they did last year--possibly out of necessity--but also because of their draft this year.  Despite having two very capable RBs already, they drafted AJ Dillon in the 2nd round.  They also picked up three offensive linemen in the draft, and spent their 3rd round pick on a TE whose strength is run-blocking.  They drafted no WRs, despite being left with a pretty motley crew in Adams' absence last season.  They did get Devin Funchess in the offseason (who I axually kind of like as a sleeper there), but with the success they had running the ball last season, I think that's the direction they are heading.

40 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

Full disclosure: I had Rodgers as low as 13th at one time during the rankings process, so it's not as if I don't see where you are coming from.

I could live with that.  I just see him as someone I would rather have as a quality QB2 in 2020 than a starter I would have to rely on week in and week out.

40 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

If you trust Daniel Jones will stay healthy and correct his fumble problems, if you believe Josh Allen will stay healthy with all of the running he does and significantly improve his accuracy, if you believe Baker's problems were solely o-line and injury-related (i.e. OBJ), if you believe Stafford's back won't be an issue or if you believe Tua will stay healthy and set the league on fire in 2021, put them ahead of Rodgers.

I would rather have Brady than Rodgers in 2020 too (although obviously Brady's value is quite limited in dynasty leagues).

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My only problem with having Aaron at 9 and Danny Dimes at 11 is that dimes isn't low enough.  He had 4 good games out of 15 where he feasted on shìtty defenses.

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15 minutes ago, nobody said:

My only problem with having Aaron at 9 and Danny Dimes at 11 is that dimes isn't low enough.  He had 4 good games out of 15 where he feasted on shìtty defenses.

Actually Danny Dimes (soon to be known as Danny Dollars) had a higher Total QBR last year than Rodgers. DJ finished 18th at 53.6, a mere .1 behind a guy named Brady. Rodgers finished 20th at 50.4. The average score for Total QBR is 50... I guess the only problem is danny boy is too low...

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

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16 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Brees is almost five years older and will probably retire at the end of this season. Rodgers is still playing at a high level. As I look at the players behind him on the list, I can't say with a great deal of certainty that I trust any of them more over the next 2-3 years. Are Daniel Jones and Josh Allen still starting? They should be, but I wouldn't call it a lock. Same with Mayfield. How many games will Tua miss over that time? I don't trust those guys in the same way like I do Rodgers over the next few years.

Rest assured, Rodgers will probably not rank higher than No. 9 on this list moving forward. As for your comment about Rodgers, I don't think he's finished lower than ninth in redraft in any of his last five healthy seasons. I recognize his game-to-game consistency hasn't been great lately (especially last year), but I think I'd be thrilled if I got him as a back-end QB1. A lot of things went right for GB last year (Davante Adams' injury was an exception) in order for the Packers to reduce their reliance on Rodgers. I'm not sure that happens again in 2020, which would likely increase their need for him to bail them out. Plus, how much of last year was Adams not being right for about half of the season?

I think Rodgers' best days are behind him, but what happens if he goes the Brady route and plays at a high level into his 40s? It means I wrote him off too early as a dynasty asset way (and maybe cost his potential owners a title or two in the process) in order to chase a shiny object.

Well, if Green Bay wasn't looking to replace him and move to a running game, I would be more inclined to rate him higher. Rodgers is slipping, I don't see them 40+ TD passing seasons for him any more, in fact I think he'll be lucky to break 30. I think he probably comes up short of 4000 yards too.

If I had him on any dynasty team, I would be looking to trade him ASAP while I can still get good value. There's too many promising young QBs in the NFL now to try and hang onto an old guy like Rodgers who is in clear decline. The teams in my dynasty leagues that have him, have had him for several seasons and not worried about a QB, that's not the case any more. They have all picked up a QB to at least platoon with if not start over Rodgers. Really about the only reason I see to hang onto him at this point, is the hope that GB cuts him in two seasons when he's not a big cap hit, he lands on a team and blows up like Peyton Manning did with Denver for a couple of seasons. I don't even think that's a great idea because it's not happening for at least two seasons. He's kind of stuck in no man's land.

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Rodgers hasn’t been a top ten Qb based on avg per game ff points since 2017. 

That we’ll be who he is going forward.  

Thanks. 

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I stated my case and a few of you disagree. And that's all right. After next year, I can easily see pushing Rodgers down to 15 or so, because that will make his age and situation exceedingly hard to overlook. I did a mock dynasty draft recently and did not like the idea of being stuck with either Rodgers or Ryan as my QB1. So I hear you.

I think a strong case can be made for putting Ryan (only a year younger than Rodgers) and Mayfield ahead of him, but I can also make strong cases as to why they don't deserve it. Will Josh Allen ever become a 60 percent passer and can we continue to count on 8.5 rushing TDs/season from him? Jrokh and nobody can't agree on Daniel Jones, and I admit I had Jones higher than Rodgers for a while. And so on and so forth ...

Tell you what ... I'd love to see each of your listings of the top 15 dynasty QBs. I have no intention of belittling anyone's lists, but I think if you go through the exercise yourself and explain your logic for each ranking, you'll see it is damn hard to push Rodgers much lower than 11 or 12. I know I'll be able to poke holes in each one of them because I already went through the process myself when I was doing the rankings. And if all we're arguing No. 9 vs. No. 11 or 12, then what are we even debating?

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15 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

if all we're arguing No. 9 vs. No. 11 or 12, then what are we even debating?

Preach.

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Just for fun... On my phone of the top of my head, so bear with me.

  1. Mahommes
  2. Lamar
  3. Deshaun Watson
  4. DangeRuss
  5. Wentz
  6. Dak
  7. Burrow
  8. Josh Allen
  9. Tua
  10. Kyler Murray
  11. RawJaws
  12. Stafford
  13. Darnold
  14. Matt Ryan
  15. Cousins
  16. Drew Lock

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Mahomes, he’s Mahomes. 

L Jackson. Continue growth. 

Watson. Same as Jackson.  

Wilson. He’s been fantastic so far

Murray, I wasn’t on board, I am now.  

Dak. Don’t know if he’ll duplicate last season, but I think he’ll be close.  

Allen, I think Diggs upgrades the wr postion, and that we’ll help that passing game.  

Wentz. Needs to stay healthy.  

Mayfield . Coaching, coaching , coaching.  

D Jones. I was impressed last season, I’m on board. 

Goff. 

Jimmy G . I’m not a big fan, but I think he’ll be better this season. 

Tannehill. With a strong run game .  

D Lock. Mmmmm I on the wait list. 

Winston. Hey if Brees misses games, he might be very impressive, maybe.  

Brady.  He’s the Goat.  

I have no excuse, this was done on iPad.  

Thanks. 

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Come on, man.  You have Jameis - a backup - ahead of Rodgers?  Jimmy G?  They don't even want him throwing the ball. 

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You have Tua. Come on man. 

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Tua can be the next drew Brees.  Jameis is the next Jeff George.

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Tua might be the next nothing also, Winston throw for 5000 yards in the nfl last season. 

And at this point, J George has been more successful in the nfl then Tua has been at this point. 

Oh my soul.  

Thanks for the reply, appreciate it. 

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On 5/12/2020 at 3:27 PM, nobody said:

Tua can be the next drew Brees.  Jameis is the next Jeff George.

This is true. Of course, Tua hasn't played so he definitely has a better chance at being a good QB than Winston. :thumbsup:

Not sure if Tua got his fill of crab legs in college though. :(

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