Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Mike FF Today

2020 Projections & Rankings

Recommended Posts

Typically we get these posted in early June, but since ya know'.... lockdown and all... I got these hammered out a little early. IDP will be posted at the end of the month.

2020 Projections & Rankings

This early set is for standard leagues. I'll have a PPR version out a bit a later. Still need to get the MFL Power feature running which lets match our rankings against any leagues you have hosted at MyFantasyLeague.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like the Zeke this season, he’ll be my top ranked rb non ppr. 

I think in tier 3 A Jones is the most interesting, I’m not sure we see 16 tds from him, I think Dillon might be a bigger threat to him then J Williams.  

I think Gurley is a little to low. I think he can produce in that offense, I know the threat of his knees , but I’m still targeting him. 

Drake as a low rb1, mmm immnot so sure , I think Edmonds shown that he can be a real threat to Drake, and he biggest what if in the top 14 to me is Mixon, I’m not so sure how good the Bengals offense we’ll be this next season. 

I really like T Hill this season as my number one wr,  and I’m not sold on Adams being a high wr1, more like a low wr1. 

I really like the placement of the two Bucs wr, and I think Beckham we’ll be a great value where he’s listed.  

Thanks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/19/2020 at 9:45 PM, Mike FF Today said:

Typically we get these posted in early June, but since ya know'.... lockdown and all... I got these hammered out a little early. IDP will be posted at the end of the month.

2020 Projections & Rankings

This early set is for standard leagues. I'll have a PPR version out a bit a later. Still need to get the MFL Power feature running which lets match our rankings against any leagues you have hosted at MyFantasyLeague.

At first, I thought your projections were reasonable for both Godwin and Evan (with respect to the yards and receptions), I did think the TD's were a little low because I think Brady will be more efficient than Winston and while I believe Brady's yardage total will be lower, I actually think his TD numbers will be higher.  Then... I it hit me that both Evans and Godwin didn't play 16 games (13 & 14 receptively), and thought, wow, that's a big drop in production you're projecting.  Then I saw your projections for Brady.  At that point, I felt in relation to Brady, they're about right.  That said, I think you're WAY low on Brady.  I think he throws for 4700 yards and 40 TD's.  Probably the reason why I have Godwin as WR2 and Evans as WR5.  Overall though, the order (which is what I think is more important), for the group as a whole is pretty good.  Nice job!

 

I think Godwin will be around 92 / 1400 / 13  and Evans at 81 / 1250 / 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rb tier seven, I see you have M Brienda ranked ahead of Howard, and I agree, and if he is the rb to own with the Dolphins, isn’t his ranking of 40 a little low.  I would think to see him ranked inside the top 32 if he’s the rb1 for the Dolphins. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 Then I saw your projections for Brady.  At that point, I felt in relation to Brady, they're about right.  That said, I think you're WAY low on Brady.  I think he throws for 4700 yards and 40 TD's.  Probably the reason why I have Godwin as WR2 and Evans as WR5.  Overall though, the order (which is what I think is more important), for the group as a whole is pretty good.  Nice job!

 

I think Godwin will be around 92 / 1400 / 13  and Evans at 81 / 1250 / 9

Projections always evolve throughout the summer but I don't see myself getting to those levels for Brady. With more positive game scripts, I think the Bucs are going to end up running more than most analysts think, making it difficult for both Godwin and Evans to be the WR1 studs we'd like them to be. The addition of Gronk being a redzone threat is another potential issue for them. It's going to fun digging into this situation as we get closer to the season. I'm probably a little higher than most on Ronald Jones right now as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m pretty sure that these rankings are based on a non ppr . 

And if so why is J White ranked 27th in a non ppr with no Goat at Qb? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Mike FF Today said:

Projections always evolve throughout the summer but I don't see myself getting to those levels for Brady. With more positive game scripts, I think the Bucs are going to end up running more than most analysts think, making it difficult for both Godwin and Evans to be the WR1 studs we'd like them to be. The addition of Gronk being a redzone threat is another potential issue for them. It's going to fun digging into this situation as we get closer to the season. I'm probably a little higher than most on Ronald Jones right now as well.

Yeah, that's cool.  There's a ton of time between now and September.  I saw that you had Jones and Vaughn for about 1300 yards with Jones closing in on 1k.  That total is close to what Barber and Jones had last year.  Apparently my first take on Tampa's offense is that they'll be much more effective than what your first take is.  I'm certainly not saying I'm right, it's just an observation.

 

Last year, Tampa had around 6600 total yards.  I don't think they'll do that again, but I think they'll be around the midpoint of that and your first run through of around 5800 (I'm adding in a couple hundred more of other RB's.

 

I'm more skeptical on Jones too.  I know Arians has been talking up Jones here and there this off season, but I think when the feet hit the turf, Vaughn will get more playing time.

 

I agree with you that Gronk will see/steal red zone targets from both Evans and Godwin, but it looks like where you and I differ is how opportunities there'll be.  I saw you had Brady at 27 TD's, but I think he'll be closer to 40... if not more.

 

I'm sure some here will say I'm a homer, but I see it as optimistic.  I mean, if the Bucs can produce 6600 total yards with a bum like Winston, I don't see how thinking 6000 to 6200 yards with Brady as being a homer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not just Gronk only, Brate and Howard we’ll steal some of those tds also. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tier five, Bell 16 and DJ 18 , those two are very interesting prospects this next season. .

i like both of them higher then posted, I think Bell as a better season after a full season off, I see more then 3 rushing tds, even with HOF Gore on board.  

Dj needs to simply stay on the field , if he can , I like him teamed up with Watson. If he can stay on the field I see number similar to his 2018.  

Thanks  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Not just Gronk only, Brate and Howard we’ll steal some of those tds also. 

 

Apparently I don't think the number will be as high as you think they will, or you don't think Brady will throw for as many as I do (which is high, so understandable).  Last year, Brate (4), Howard (1), and even Perriman (6), accrued 11 TD's.  Perriman is gone.  How many do you think Gronk is going to get?  How many more than 5 do you think Brate and Howard will combine for?  How many TD's do you think Brady is going to throw for?

I think the 3 TE's combine for 10 with Gronk and Howard getting 4 each and Brate getting 2.  I think Brady throw for 40 TD's with Godwin (13), and Evans (9), combining for 22.  Those 5 total 32, leaving 8 for other players... including the TE's, or even less TD's from Brady.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In a earlier post you posted about how both Godwin and Evans didn’t play in every game. 

Neither did the Brate/ Howard Combo. 

They played in 26 of 32 games. 

Now you toss in the Gronk plus those two tes , plus the fact that Brady we’ll also use the whole field which includes his Rbs in the passing game. 

The last time Brady threw for 40 plus tds , was when R Moss was his number one target, 

So I don’t see Brady tossing 40 tds, I’m guessing around 30-33, And we know one thing about Brady he loves throwing to his tes , when the talent it there, and the talent is there, wouldn’t shock me at all to the Gronk catch 6-7 tds, plus their well be others not mention, Brady threw only 24 tds last season, but 11 different players scored a passing td, he’ll spread the ball around.  

I mean it’s totally possible to think that both Brate and Howard can catch a combine 6 plus tds. 

Plus maybe what six or so other catching a few here and there. 

Thanks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tier 4, I just don’t see Drake as a rb1. I really think Edmonds we’ll be very frustrating to Drake owners, Drake we’ll be Zona rb1 , But Edmonds we’ll get a lot lot of work.  

I think Sanders could find himself in Drake postion on this list.  

And who have Chubb at number 14 , way below where he finished last season, but yet Hunt is only ranked 37, I would think with Chubb ranked as a rb2 that Hunt would be higher as a rb3 , right? 

Thanks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, weepaws said:

In a earlier post you posted about how both Godwin and Evans didn’t play in every game. 

Neither did the Brate/ Howard Combo. 

They played in 26 of 32 games. 

Now you toss in the Gronk plus those two tes , plus the fact that Brady we’ll also use the whole field which includes his Rbs in the passing game. 

The last time Brady threw for 40 plus tds , was when R Moss was his number one target, 

So I don’t see Brady tossing 40 tds, I’m guessing around 30-33, And we know one thing about Brady he loves throwing to his tes , when the talent it there, and the talent is there, wouldn’t shock me at all to the Gronk catch 6-7 tds, plus their well be others not mention, Brady threw only 24 tds last season, but 11 different players scored a passing td, he’ll spread the ball around.  

I mean it’s totally possible to think that both Brate and Howard can catch a combine 6 plus tds. 

Plus maybe what six or so other catching a few here and there. 

Thanks. 

The reason why games played is an issue is because prior to missing the last 2 games last year, Godwin played in all 46 prior games.  He doesn't have a track record of getting hurt.  Similarly, Evans missed 1 game due to injury in his rookie season and never missed a game since, with the exception of a 1 game suspension.  Meaning neither have an injury history. I fully expect both to play.

 

Howard, conversely, has missed at least 2 games each year of his career.  There's no reason to think he'll play all 16.  Brate doesn't really have an injury history, but the fact that Arians doesn't use the TE much, it's likely that he's on the field less now that Gronk is there.  Plus, after getting a career 63% snap count share in 2016, it's gone down each year since, to as low as 38% last year.

 

The last time Brady threw 40 was with Moss, right?  You don't think that Tampa's (top 3), receiving corp of Evans, Godwin, & Gronk are 80% as good as Moss, Welker, & Godwin?  I do.  To note, Moss' average 16-game season is 80/1244/13 (not counting his last 3 seasons - which would bring those numbers down), also he averaged 15.6 ypr in that time frame as well... Evans' is 82/1290/9 with 15.7 ypr.

 

Brady loving TE's is an overblown.  Brady liked Gronk & Hernandez.  Bennett & Watson had 1 year each where a TE had at least 60 targets.

 

Yeah, Brady had 24 TD's last to 11 receivers because his receiving was terrible.  He's legitimately going to the best WR/TE team in the NFL.  The difference is substantial.

 

To think 12 to 13 TD's by the TE's is reasonable, but I think that's hitting the ceiling.  I think those TD's through are going to be at the expense of the other WR's down the depth chart and not Godwin or Evans.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, weepaws said:

Tier 4, I just don’t see Drake as a rb1. I really think Edmonds we’ll be very frustrating to Drake owners, Drake we’ll be Zona rb1 , But Edmonds we’ll get a lot lot of work.  

I think Sanders could find himself in Drake postion on this list.  

And who have Chubb at number 14 , way below where he finished last season, but yet Hunt is only ranked 37, I would think with Chubb ranked as a rb2 that Hunt would be higher as a rb3 , right? 

Thanks. 

I agree with your take here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The reason why I picked 30-33 tds for Brady , is simply that’s been his avg since 2007 when he had 50, in which that was his only 40 plus td season, in which 9 different players had td rec that season. 

Now Brady hasn’t had 33 tds since 2015.  

So beside Godwin and Evans and three tes he’ll throw tds to at least three other players. 

And since I do think 12 plus tds we’ll go to the three tes, then throw in a few to at lest those other three players, like a couple of Rbs or another wr, so now where at let’s say 15 -16 tds now, and since I’m calling for 30-33 that would leave about 14- 16 left, mmm I don’t see double figures for both of those wr when it comes to scoring tds. 

Plus I think Arians we’ll adjust his coaching system to fit somethings Brady likes to do, if not, it might not work. 

I see one of them as a wr1 , but only one.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, weepaws said:

The reason why I picked 30-33 tds for Brady , is simply that’s been his avg since 2007 when he had 50, in which that was his only 40 plus td season, in which 9 different players had td rec that season. 

Now Brady hasn’t had 33 tds since 2015.  

So beside Godwin and Evans and three tes he’ll throw tds to at least three other players. 

And since I do think 12 plus tds we’ll go to the three tes, then throw in a few to at lest those other three players, like a couple of Rbs or another wr, so now where at let’s say 15 -16 tds now, and since I’m calling for 30-33 that would leave about 14- 16 left, mmm I don’t see double figures for both of those wr when it comes to scoring tds. 

Plus I think Arians we’ll adjust his coaching system to fit somethings Brady likes to do, if not, it might not work. 

I see one of them as a wr1 , but only one.  

 

I think our biggest difference is what you have in your last 2 lines.  I think you're just assuming that the Bucs will cater to Brady.  Honestly, I HIGHLY doubt that, that happens.  Highly.

 

The New England offense is totally different than Tampa's.  New England's approach to building a team, is different than Tampa's.  New England has/had a very conservative approach on offense.  A lot of short slants, quick hits, dump off's, etc.  Tampa is a get separation - get down the field - wide open offense.  It's designed to be aggressive.  Tampa isn't changing their offense to fit Brady.  It's just that Brady will be deciding where the ball goes and when.  New England rotated people in and out of their offense all the time as they had, what we would call, interchangeable parts.  Tampa (Arians/Leftwich), doesn't do that.  Evans and Godwin will be out there on virtually every play.  As will Gronk and/or Howard.  That's 4 guys, plus the 5 OLinemen is 9, with a RB and Brady.  There's your 11 guys.  There's real rotation of players in Tampa.  The only one you could point to is the "4th guy".  Evans, Godwin, and Howard were staples.  The 4th guy was either Perriman (57% snap share), or Brate (38% snap share).  

 

With the addition of Gronk, the rotation has virtually been eliminated.  It will be Evans, Godwin, Gronk, and Howard.  Brate will get time in at the expense of Gronk and Howard, but not much.  As I mentioned, Brate has been steadily phased out of the Tampa offense every year.  I won't be surprised if Brate has 25 targets, 17 receptions for 160 yards and 0 TD's this year.  His production will be at the expense of Gronk and/Howard... not in addition to.  I think the your prediction of 12 to 13 TD's by the 3 TE's is the aggressive, optimistic, and everything went perfectly right for them - in order to happen.  I fully expect the 3 to total less than 10.  To nail down specifics, I'll put Gronk at 4, Howard at 3, and Brate at 1.

 

Simply, Brady will run the Tampa offense... HIS way, but it will still be the Tampa offense.  There will be 600 pass attempts. There won't be a lot of 2 RB sets.  There will be a lot of 4 verticals.  The pass distribution in Tampa will be more in line with Tampa's history, not Brady's.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think our biggest difference is what you have in your last 2 lines.  I think you're just assuming that the Bucs will cater to Brady.  Honestly, I HIGHLY doubt that, that happens.  Highly.

 

The New England offense is totally different than Tampa's.  New England's approach to building a team, is different than Tampa's.  New England has/had a very conservative approach on offense.  A lot of short slants, quick hits, dump off's, etc.  Tampa is a get separation - get down the field - wide open offense.  It's designed to be aggressive.  Tampa isn't changing their offense to fit Brady.  It's just that Brady will be deciding where the ball goes and when.  New England rotated people in and out of their offense all the time as they had, what we would call, interchangeable parts.  Tampa (Arians/Leftwich), doesn't do that.  Evans and Godwin will be out there on virtually every play.  As will Gronk and/or Howard.  That's 4 guys, plus the 5 OLinemen is 9, with a RB and Brady.  There's your 11 guys.  There's real rotation of players in Tampa.  The only one you could point to is the "4th guy".  Evans, Godwin, and Howard were staples.  The 4th guy was either Perriman (57% snap share), or Brate (38% snap share).  

 

With the addition of Gronk, the rotation has virtually been eliminated.  It will be Evans, Godwin, Gronk, and Howard.  Brate will get time in at the expense of Gronk and Howard, but not much.  As I mentioned, Brate has been steadily phased out of the Tampa offense every year.  I won't be surprised if Brate has 25 targets, 17 receptions for 160 yards and 0 TD's this year.  His production will be at the expense of Gronk and/Howard... not in addition to.  I think the your prediction of 12 to 13 TD's by the 3 TE's is the aggressive, optimistic, and everything went perfectly right for them - in order to happen.  I fully expect the 3 to total less than 10.  To nail down specifics, I'll put Gronk at 4, Howard at 3, and Brate at 1.

 

Simply, Brady will run the Tampa offense... HIS way, but it will still be the Tampa offense.  There will be 600 pass attempts. There won't be a lot of 2 RB sets.  There will be a lot of 4 verticals.  The pass distribution in Tampa will be more in line with Tampa's history, not Brady's.

 

Perriman is on the Jets now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Perriman is on the Jets now

I know.  That's why I said that the 4-man rotation will be Evans, Godwin, Gronk, and Howard.  It's why the only times I ever mention Perriman is in past tense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No I never did say that Arians would cater to Brady. 

Brady will indeed play in Arians system, but Arians will also adjust is what I said to do some things Brady likes to do, what he feels comfortable doing.  

I think the addition of the Gronk already shows that’s taking place. 

Simply won’t be enough tds to go around for the Bucs to post two wr1 based on ff production this next season, I see a wr1 and I see a wr2. 

The biggest difference we have is, you see Brady throwing for something he’s only done once is his career, and that’s passing for 40 plus tds, I don’t think he’s going to top 33. 

Thats the biggest difference we have.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm going on the record here.  Tom Brady will be running Tampa's offense, Tampa will NOT be running Tom Brady's offense.  I think Brady will have one of his best years of his career mainly because of the talent he has to work with and his football IQ.  Sure, he's older, but he has a LOT of players who are excellent in yards after the catch.  Keep in mind, Godwin was #2 in the NFL last with over 500 YAC yards.  

Passing

  • Brady - 370 for 570 (65%) / 4700 yards / 42 TD's / 11 Int's.

Rushing

  • Jones - 200 / 880 (4.4 ypc) / 7
  • K. Vaughn - 150 / 720 (4.8 ypc) / 5
  • Ogunbowale - 10 / 18 (1.8 ypc) / 3

Receiving

  • Godwin - 92 / 1400 / 13
  • Evans - 81 / 1250 / 9
  • T. Johnson - 28 / 375 / 2
  • S. Miller - 15 / 180 / 1
  • B. Wilson - 10 / 115 / 1
  • Gronk - 35 / 420 / 4
  • Howard - 25 / 250 / 4
  • Brate - 10 / 80 / 0
  • Jones - 30 / 270 / 3
  • Ogunbowale - 30 / 270 / 3
  • K. Vaughn - 15 / 120 / 2

 

Notes:

  • This is less total yards than last year, by about 300 yards (6648 down to about 6300).
  • I did not account for miscellaneous rushing yards, but keep in mind, outside of Winston and the 3 RB's, everyone else accounted for only about 60 yards.
  • Total TD's increase from 48 to 57.
  • Winston turned the ball over 35 times last year (5 lost fumbles)... I expect Brady to be around 12.  I think with that difference, a bump of 9 TD's is well within reason.
  • I expect the Bucs to be around 30 ppg (up 1.4 from last year).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, weepaws said:

No I never did say that Arians would cater to Brady. 

Brady will indeed play in Arians system, but Arians will also adjust is what I said to do some things Brady likes to do, what he feels comfortable doing.  

I think the addition of the Gronk already shows that’s taking place. 

Simply won’t be enough tds to go around for the Bucs to post two wr1 based on ff production this next season, I see a wr1 and I see a wr2. 

The biggest difference we have is, you see Brady throwing for something he’s only done once is his career, and that’s passing for 40 plus tds, I don’t think he’s going to top 33. 

Thats the biggest difference we have.  

I gotchya.  I agree that Arians will adjust to fit some of Brady's comforts... but I see that as it being in the plays being called, not the rotation of the players.  When you have Evans and Godwin on your roster, you don't take one of them out of the game for any reason other than a breather.  Both Evans and Godwin are rare receivers in that they can excel at all 3... the X, Y, and Z positions on the field.  I think people, in general, don't realize their flexibility and how the Bucs and Brady can call all different kinds of plays without changing their personnel.

Yeah, the TD's is the big gap we have.  That said, last year Winston threw 33 TD's and Godwin and Evans had 17, I have them at 22.  Perriman in his last 3 games caught 4 (only 2 in the prior 13).  If Godwin and Evans don't get hurt, they probably get at least 3 of those. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok I think your low on the predictions of the three te, last season with Winston, Brate and Howard and a combine 5 tds and 770 yards , with both of them missing games, now with three of them and one named the Gronk I see much more production in yards then the 750 your posting and more then just 8 tds   

Your saying threw tes we’ll post less yards at 750 then the two had last season and only post 3 more tds from 5 last season to 8 with Brady. 

And R Jones and Barber and Ogunbowale those three combine for 710 rec yardage and only 1 rec td. 

I think those number we’ll increase, once again based on Arians system , and a little adjustment to what Brady likes.  

Thanks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The tier three comments about J Mixon, say he’s a solid rb2 , that I agree with, so his ranking of 9th makes him a rb1, I think that’s a little bit high for a solid rb2. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Ok I think your low on the predictions of the three te, last season with Winston, Brate and Howard and a combine 5 tds and 770 yards , with both of them missing games, now with three of them and one named the Gronk I see much more production in yards then the 750 your posting and more then just 8 tds   

Your saying threw tes we’ll post less yards at 750 then the two had last season and only post 3 more tds from 5 last season to 8 with Brady. 

And R Jones and Barber and Ogunbowale those three combine for 710 rec yardage and only 1 rec td. 

I think those number we’ll increase, once again based on Arians system , and a little adjustment to what Brady likes.  

Thanks. 

Yeah, that's fine.  No one's going to agree on everything, but yeah, I don't think the TE's will be as productive as everyone thinks.  I know Brady likes Gronk and that Arians will work him in, but I think that'll be to the detriment of playing time for Brate.  Also, until I see otherwise, I think that the Bucs still need help on the line of scrimmage.  This is one of the things that play into my projections/predictions.  For that reason, I think Howard will be used more as a blocker than as a route runner.  So, while they may have a lot of 12 personnel formations, they're probably only going to send 3 out into routes, along with the RB out of the backfield.

I think the RB's will have similar receiving numbers, but much more TD's.  I have them at 8.  I think people are over stating/thinking about how much Brady is going to use his RB's.  In the past, Brady has used them a lot because they were generally the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th best receiving options in NE.  In Tampa, not only will they not be 2nd, 3rd, or 4th... but they won't be 5th (Brate), 6th (Miller), or the 7th (Johnson), best option.  Ogunbowale has shown to be a solid player, but I think Vaughn's arrival will reduce his role.  Also, until I see otherwise, Jones is still a poor pass blocker and mediocre route runner, which is why I don't think he'll see an increased role in the passing game.  I think the most likely scenario is that on passing downs, Ogunbowale will be out there more than any other RB, but as an extra protector and not a route runner.  I think the RB's increase in receiving TD's will be the result of the short dump off's inside the 5 .  I don't envision many 10+ yard TD pass plays to the RB's.  I think overall RB's will see a big uptick in TD's from 15 to 28.  Now, if Brady's TD numbers drop from say 42 (my prediction), down to say 35 (much closer to yours), I think those numbers will be largely be receiving TD's being replace by rushing TD's from the RB's.  They won't really impact Godwin or Evans.

I'm going to throw this out there as a bold prediction.  Well, I don't know if it's a bold "prediction" as much as it's a 'I won't be shocked to see this happen', but I can see Godwin putting up a 110 / 1800 / 16  season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would call that a bold prediction, i if your right I will give you all the credit. 

Thanks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weepaws said:

I would call that a bold prediction, i if your right I will give you all the credit. 

Thanks. 

I think Evans is one of the 7 (or so), best WR's in the league... I think Godwin, this year, will prove to be the better receiver.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think they are both very good, Godwin made a big jump last season, and Evans has been a top 10 wr since he’s second season. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tier 7 for the WRs , why is J Washington of the Steelers ranked so low , he’s raked 92 on the list, that’s not even worthy of a draft pick in a 14 team league. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, weepaws said:

Tier 7 for the WRs , why is J Washington of the Steelers ranked so low , he’s raked 92 on the list, that’s not even worthy of a draft pick in a 14 team league. 

If 2nd round pick Chase Claypool eats into his production at all, it's not hard to envision Washington falling from #62 (where he finished in 2019) to #92 in 2020; it would only take a loss of 2.4 fantasy points per week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/22/2020 at 11:10 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm going on the record here.  Tom Brady will be running Tampa's offense, Tampa will NOT be running Tom Brady's offense.  I think Brady will have one of his best years of his career mainly because of the talent he has to work with and his football IQ.  Sure, he's older, but he has a LOT of players who are excellent in yards after the catch.  Keep in mind, Godwin was #2 in the NFL last with over 500 YAC yards.  

Passing

  • Brady - 370 for 570 (65%) / 4700 yards / 42 TD's / 11 Int's.

Rushing

  • Jones - 200 / 880 (4.4 ypc) / 7
  • K. Vaughn - 150 / 720 (4.8 ypc) / 5
  • Ogunbowale - 10 / 18 (1.8 ypc) / 3

Receiving

  • Godwin - 92 / 1400 / 13
  • Evans - 81 / 1250 / 9
  • T. Johnson - 28 / 375 / 2
  • S. Miller - 15 / 180 / 1
  • B. Wilson - 10 / 115 / 1
  • Gronk - 35 / 420 / 4
  • Howard - 25 / 250 / 4
  • Brate - 10 / 80 / 0
  • Jones - 30 / 270 / 3
  • Ogunbowale - 30 / 270 / 3
  • K. Vaughn - 15 / 120 / 2

 

Notes:

  • This is less total yards than last year, by about 300 yards (6648 down to about 6300).
  • I did not account for miscellaneous rushing yards, but keep in mind, outside of Winston and the 3 RB's, everyone else accounted for only about 60 yards.
  • Total TD's increase from 48 to 57.
  • Winston turned the ball over 35 times last year (5 lost fumbles)... I expect Brady to be around 12.  I think with that difference, a bump of 9 TD's is well within reason.
  • I expect the Bucs to be around 30 ppg (up 1.4 from last year).

Does Brady's deep ball concern you any? I apologize if I asked you before, can't recall.

I know Jameis had his flaws but the deep ball was not one of them as long as it didn't go to the other team.

That's a minor red flag to me. Brady hasn't had the best deep ball recently. Maybe it's his WRs but TB doesn't have a dink and dunk offense. I'm not implying it will be a catastrophe, but if the offense hits a bit of a bump, that's where I expect it to be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, polecatt said:

Does Brady's deep ball concern you any? I apologize if I asked you before, can't recall.

I know Jameis had his flaws but the deep ball was not one of them as long as it didn't go to the other team.

That's a minor red flag to me. Brady hasn't had the best deep ball recently. Maybe it's his WRs but TB doesn't have a dink and dunk offense. I'm not implying it will be a catastrophe, but if the offense hits a bit of a bump, that's where I expect it to be.

Not in the single least.  In fact, I think it's bogus analysis/information.  According to Football Outsiders, Brady ranked 6th in the NFL in completion% (18/31 - 58.1%) in passes 21-30 yards.  Winston had 46 attempts and ranked 20th.  Now, on passes over 31 yards, he did rank 28th, but he only had 19 attempts.  I think the main reason for that is the lack of continuity of wide outs and lack of overall talent that the Patriots had.  For the record, Winston didn't rank all that much better, being 19th and he had 38 attempts.  To note, when factoring in all passes over 21 yards, Winston's comp% was 44% and Brady's was 46%.  I don't see anyone questioning Winston's deep ball.  In fact, I hear people praising him. 

 

What to make of this info... you may see this as justifying the notion of Brady not throwing the ball deep very well.  I see it as Brady being more likely to excel in this area with Tampa.  Why?  Because the reason main why Winston had so many attempts over 21 yards (84 total), is because he was always putting the Bucs in disadvantageous situations with his 35 turnovers.  Sure, Arians/Leftwich will call those plays to keep the defense honest, but with Brady, they won't be forced to call more based on situations.  Situations that were created by turnovers.  I don't see Brady being a turnover machine.  In fact, I'm willing to bet that he turns the ball over one-third the amount (about 12), of times as Winston.  Considering that Brady ranked 6th in the 21-30 yard range, I expect those routes to be called more.  Considering the massive jump in talent Brady will be throwing to, I could envision Brady finishing #1 in comp% in that range.  Why?  Because according to Pro Football Focus, both Evans (3rd), and Godwin (10th), ranked in the top 10 in the NFL last year on 50/50 balls.

 

This info leads me to think that the Bucs will have another great offensive season... possibly the #1 offense overall.  In fact, I'll go this far... I think the Bucs might have one of the best offenses the NFL has seen in a long time.  The only concern I have, is how this virus could affect the season.  The lack of a full off-season/camp is the only way I see the Bucs not being as potent as they could be.  It's possible that the first handful of weeks, the Bucs could be slow out of the gate.  I certainly wouldn't write off anyone saying that the Bucs will struggle early on because of that and would even agree to that possibility.

 

If Tampa's WR/TE corp can carry Winston to the point where the Bucs were a top 3 offense, there's no reason to think that with Brady, they can't replicate that production... or even surpass it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tier 7 K Stills and tier 8 R Cobb ranked 90 and 81, I think those two are ranked to low, Fuller can’t stay healthy , and B Cooks hasn’t had injury issue based on games missed, but two concussions last season would have me concern, I think Stills and Cobb look to be some really good sold late draft picks , but at number 90 and 81 they wouldn’t be be drafted in a 14 teamer. 

I’ll pass on Fuller this season, he’s proven to be injury prone , and i want B Cooks later then others based on his current ranking on ff Calculator.  But I’ll take a draft pick on Cobb and or Stills as my Wr5. 

Notice that N Hardman is ranked number 80 what, now come on. 

Ive been hearing that he well have much more involvement this season in the passing game, and when Mahomes is the name of your Qb, heck he’s worth a draft pick easly, I think in a 14 teamer as high as a low Wr 3.  And low would be a high wr4.  At number 80 non ppr 14 teamer he wouldn’t make a roster spot.  

Makes me want to say, come on man. 

Thanks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tier 5 M Pittman at number 59. 

Makes him a high wr5 , what a steal of that’s the case, I think he’ll post the best ff of the rookie WRs this season, he landed in a very good spot.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, AxeElf said:

If 2nd round pick Chase Claypool eats into his production at all, it's not hard to envision Washington falling from #62 (where he finished in 2019) to #92 in 2020; it would only take a loss of 2.4 fantasy points per week.

So do you  agree with him being ranked at number 92 in a non ppr? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, weepaws said:

So do you  agree with him being ranked at number 92 in a non ppr? 

No way.  I would feel better putting him at #93.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok thanks , that’s what I thought. 

And in a non ppr it looks like Washington finished 51st so that would be a big fall. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now the Seahawks sign Hyde, thats going to make for a interesting development.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, weepaws said:

And in a non ppr it looks like Washington finished 51st so that would be a big fall. 

He actually finished #62 in non-ppr scoring on a points-per-game basis; there were other WRs who were scoring more fantasy points in the games they played, but didn't play as many games as Washington.  So he goes from being a WR5 in 14 team non-ppr leagues to a WR7 or worse, if Claypool is any good.

50 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Now the Seahawks sign Hyde, thats going to make for a interesting development.  

It's really only interesting if you were planning on drafting Penny to handcuff Carson; now you would want to draft Hyde for that purpose.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He finished 51 in non Ppr , talking about Washington, thank you. Looks like only 50 scored more points, so that would make him, mmmm  51.  Thank you . And Washington would have the 43 in non avg per game , many players tied so if you take the ties and count down, he would be 43. Hey once again Thank You 

Hyde is interesting since Penny  might not be back for some time, so the Hyde pick is interesting. Once again Thank You. 

Thank you for your reply, appreciate you. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Adams at number two huh, mmm I don’t see why.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×