Ray_T 585 Posted May 22, 2020 https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-updates-language-on-4th-and-15-proposal-taking-out-trailing-requirement Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 22, 2020 I don’t see why anyone , any coach, would want to try it if their team is in the lead. I can see why they would if they are trying to catch up and time is running out. . Dont really see any kind of strategy move, if your behind and short on time, try it, if your head why try it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted May 22, 2020 When you have a team like the Chiefs, who convert about 93% of their 4th and 15+ tries when the game is on the line anyway, it's a no-brainer. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 397 Posted May 22, 2020 I just don't see a team trying to go for this if they have the lead. Teams almost never go for it on 4th and 3 at midfield unless they're trailing late in the 4th. I don't see a team with the lead going for it at their own 25 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 22, 2020 I agree they won’t try it if they have the lead, but reading the article was funny, because it read like there would be so much strategy involved, again it’s simply behind and running out of time, why not go for it, but if your ahead, your not going to chance it , there is no way. Just read a couple of articles about the conversion rate of 4th and 15 yards to go based on this rule, the conversion rate is 23% over the last 20 years, that’s from these articles , so it doesn’t sound like a smart coach would go for it if you have the lead. Kc had zero 4th and 15 conversions last season, they didn’t try any. But they where good on third and long conversions Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted May 22, 2020 53 minutes ago, weepaws said: Kc had zero 4th and 15 conversions last season, they didn’t try any. Ah, so they didn't fail a single time then. That's even better than the 7% failure rate that I guessed. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Utilit99 4,099 Posted May 24, 2020 On 5/22/2020 at 5:47 PM, polecatt said: I just don't see a team trying to go for this if they have the lead. How many teams do an onside kick with the lead? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 585 Posted May 24, 2020 On 5/22/2020 at 3:47 PM, polecatt said: I just don't see a team trying to go for this if they have the lead. Teams almost never go for it on 4th and 3 at midfield unless they're trailing late in the 4th. I don't see a team with the lead going for it at their own 25 well, I think the rule is designed that way. there is an incentive to not do it unless necessary. This way its just another option for a hail mary to tie the game. certainly the option should be there for anyone at any time, but the odds are good that most teams wont try unless they absolutely need to. I do not think a rule like this hurts the game. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 397 Posted May 25, 2020 14 hours ago, Utilit99 said: How many teams do an onside kick with the lead? None, but this isn't an onsides kick, that's kind of the point Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 397 Posted May 25, 2020 8 hours ago, Ray_T said: well, I think the rule is designed that way. there is an incentive to not do it unless necessary. This way its just another option for a hail mary to tie the game. certainly the option should be there for anyone at any time, but the odds are good that most teams wont try unless they absolutely need to. I do not think a rule like this hurts the game. It certainly is, but I think he's kind of hinting at the idea. The Chiefs have an advantage with this new rule. It's just something new on the table. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 25, 2020 How do the Chiefs have an advantage? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,069 Posted May 25, 2020 On 5/22/2020 at 3:18 PM, weepaws said: I don’t see why anyone , any coach, would want to try it if their team is in the lead. I can see why they would if they are trying to catch up and time is running out. . Dont really see any kind of strategy move, if your behind and short on time, try it, if your head why try it. I easily can. You're down 7-0 with 5 minutes to go in the 1st quarter. You take 7 minutes and get a FG, then after 1 minute, get the ball back after a quick 3 and out. You then go 80 yards in 8 minutes as the defense is huffing and puffing as you put the ball in the end zone to take a 10-7 lead with 4 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter. You just score 10 points while holding the ball for 15 of the last 16 minutes. Me? I'm trying to get the ball back. I can hold the ball for 19 of 20 minutes and put up 17 straight points... maybe only 13. Sign me up. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 25, 2020 So your down 7 and you go down make the ff now it’s 7-3. Its now early second qtr, you go for a 4th and 15 don’t make the other team takes over , great field position and scores another td , so now your down 14-3 , stupid move, thank you, happy Memorial Day. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,069 Posted May 25, 2020 17 minutes ago, weepaws said: So your down 7 and you go down make the ff now it’s 7-3. Its now early second qtr, you go for a 4th and 15 don’t make the other team takes over , great field position and scores another td , so now your down 14-3 , stupid move, thank you, happy Memorial Day. No. The scenario I gave you is that after the FG, you kick off. Got the ball back after a 3 and out. Then went down for the go ahead TD. The 4th and 15 comes AFTER taking a 10-7 lead. The scenario you described/interpreted, is the one you were advocating. Meaning, going for the 4th and 15 while losing. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 25, 2020 The only time a smart coach would use this rule if they where down by a lot of points , if your up to much to lose . either way if a team is ahead , they won’t use it, to much to lose, and coaches wouldn’t want to make that mistake, no way. The more I look into a 4th and 15 situation over time, the less I like it. i mean I have no problem making it a new rule, that’s great, but everything I’ve seen, a team as less then a 25% chance of making the 15 yards, that’s about the avg over a twenty year span. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,069 Posted May 25, 2020 I don't know if I like it yet or not, I'm just saying that I can see a scenario where a team in the lead would chose to try the 4th and 15. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted May 25, 2020 Basically a team that was leading would attempt this conversion pretty much in the same situations that a leading team would attempt an onside kick; for instance, when you're playing the Chiefs and you only have a 20 point lead with five minutes to go in the game. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 585 Posted May 26, 2020 On 5/24/2020 at 6:23 PM, polecatt said: It certainly is, but I think he's kind of hinting at the idea. The Chiefs have an advantage with this new rule. It's just something new on the table. good teams have an advantage for almost every rule. that is why they are good teams. the chiefs may be able to convert up to 50% of their 4th and 15's if they tried em. maybe more, but that isnt Andy Reid's style. I could see teams doing more no huddle offenses to keep tired Defenses from subbing in and out when they feel a 4th and 15 can be done after scoring a TD on a long drive. That would be good strategy. also good for the game. faster gameplay wiith less time between snaps of the football is generally good for TV as well. The NFL knows it too. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Smileseers 54 Posted May 27, 2020 I could see a team that scored right before the half to go into the lead(or not) choosing the 4th and 15 if there was less than 5 seconds left to avoid the kickoff return. Mahomes has more successful plays of 3rd or 4th and 15 yards or more of any qb in the past decade. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 27, 2020 I hate to ask this question, but where can I find that article about Mahomes having the most successful plays of any Qb the past decade on 4th and 15 plus yards, I don’t care about 3rd down, just the 4th down and 15 plus yards? Thanks I would like to read that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 27, 2020 Now you get only two attempts per game, and the game clock does run, so it would seem like a pretty easy call if your down, but ahead, naw. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,069 Posted May 27, 2020 5 hours ago, weepaws said: Now you get only two attempts per game, and the game clock does run, so it would seem like a pretty easy call if your down, but ahead, naw. I'm not so sure about the limit being all that important. As for the clock running, why wouldn't it? It runs on kickoff's. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jrokh 567 Posted May 27, 2020 As you can see, now the clock would not be running, which makes more sense to me. This way a team that scores with 5 seconds left in the half can't just go for it without suffering the consequences of missing the conversion... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 397 Posted May 27, 2020 2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said: I'm not so sure about the limit being all that important. As for the clock running, why wouldn't it? It runs on kickoff's. The only difference about the clock would be, it doesn't run on the kick, only when the ball is touched/advanced out of the end zone. On a 4th and 15 it would start at the snap. So I could see that being a minor consideration. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 27, 2020 4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said: I'm not so sure about the limit being all that important. As for the clock running, why wouldn't it? It runs on kickoff's. Limit could be important based on the out come of the game, with the game going forward, if a team ahead uses one early just, and now down to one left, and then they fall behind late by two or more scores, they then would only have one to use, when they really need them. As for the clock I thought it was a free play, but I read that it’s a timed play, so kickoffs the clock starts on the catch not when the ball is kicked. But looks like it might be a free untimed play, based on the post above Thanks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,069 Posted May 27, 2020 I think the rules for this make it apparent to me that this is making a mountain out of a mole hill while trying to build an ant hill. It's all stupid. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 27, 2020 I liked it, but now it’s going to be a untimed play, that I don’t like, if your going to run a play, use the game clock. I hope they vote it in, I can’t wait to see if and how teams we’ll use it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,069 Posted May 28, 2020 The reason I think this is stupid is because I think the problem was minor (# of concussions on on-sides kicks), is way smaller than the number of total injuries that can happen on a random play. I don't really recall too many injuries happening on on-sides kicks. Most of the time, there's no contact. The kicker generally kicks it too far or goes right to an opposing player who drops on the ball, or it goes out of bounds. On a random play, there are 22 guys who can get a concussion, break a bone, tear a ligament, etc. This new rule is going to create a problem when one doesn't exist. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 28, 2020 I agree with TB, but I like it, that it does add in a new situation for a team that’s behind with little time to catchup. Thats how I see it being used, I don’t like that it’s a untimed play, it should still be run like any other play. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted May 28, 2020 Still seems like a gimmicky XFL kind of a thing to do. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 28, 2020 Looks like that’s over. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,069 Posted May 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, weepaws said: Looks like that’s over. Good. They should just go back to what it used to be. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites