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Trump starting to rise in polls again - media silent

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43 minutes ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

I kind of have to agree with this statement.  If polls are a joke why did we start a thread using a poll?

That's the typical bait-and-switch democrats use when talking about polls.

1.  I *always* assert that the polls are often skewed about 5-6% in favor of dems.
2.  Democrats have always twisted my words to assert that I said "polls do not matter" when that is NOT what I said.
3.  Republicans not paying attention start to think I said something I did NOT.

Remember, democrats lie their ASS off.  In this case, MDC is lying and claiming I said polls do not matter. 

Be careful with what democrats say.  They lie constantly.  Fact check everything they say.

Polls have value in that:

1.  If the republican is winning, that means he will win in a rout.
2.  If the democrat leads by a small margin, they almost always means the republican will win.
3.  If the democrat has a huge double digit lead well after summer is over, then the democrat is looking like the winner.

None of that is me saying polls are worthless.

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When you read an MDC post, you ask yourself "where is the lie? Where is the guilt trip?  where is the personal attack?"

 

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27 minutes ago, riversco said:

When you read an MDC post, you ask yourself "where is the lie? Where is the guilt trip?  where is the personal attack?"

 

You definitely don't have to ask "where is the troll?", because he's right there. 

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1 hour ago, riversco said:

When you read an MDC post, you ask yourself "where is the lie? Where is the guilt trip?  where is the personal attack?"

 

The nerve, the gall, the audacity, the effrontery to question the intent of MDC! ShooAway you vagabond before I tilt my cup of Twingings on the tips of my French shoes. I bid you a staunch adieu!! 

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14 minutes ago, FlyinHeadlock said:

The nerve, the gall, the audacity, the effrontery to question the intent of MDC! ShooAway you vagabond before I tilt my cup of Twingings on the tips of my French shoes. I bid you a staunch adieu!! 

neo.gif.5690116861516829fb6472ef317fa510.gif

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4 hours ago, riversco said:

5-7 is nothing man.  The polls are always skewed in favor of democrats.  Trump is likely ahead in WI is the polls say 5-7.

Wolf last recorded approval rating was down like 20 points and he was underwater AND it oversampled democrats so he actually even in worse shape than reported.

The polls may be skewed but I doubt it’s to the degree you think. I’m sure Wolf’s approval rating is higher than Trump’s but he’s not running against Trump anyway, so who cares?

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2 hours ago, shorepatrol said:

Agreed. But not nearly as epic of a meltdown when he gets re elected. 

There will be many years either way. I sincerely hope for a clean outcome either way so we don’t have to listen to crybaby shiit for weeks.

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14 hours ago, FlyinHeadlock said:

I just don't see that many people turning on him. If someone voted for him last time highly unlikely they switch teams. What I think might burn him though, without a Jill Stein or  Gary Johnson in the mix where is the 4.4% of the vote going from last time. From their policies it looks like Biden, not all of it but a good chunk IMO.

On the other hand, Democrats are not doing themselves any favors with hispanics and blacks. They still get almost all of it but bashing religion not a good idea. Then Biden's record with blacks and that one smug comment...it's going to hurt them. Trump doesn't even need that much of it, just a slight bump from last time and he could edge it out.

 

I am not affiliated with any party.  The first president I voted for was Reagan and the last was Trump.  I promised myself that I would never vote for a Clinton or Bush because I did not want a likely 32 years of my adult life represented by two families. 

I will vote for a jelly bean over Trump.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, MDC said:

There will be many years either way. I sincerely hope for a clean outcome either way so we don’t have to listen to crybaby shiit for weeks.

Hoping for clean , win or lose. Crybaby internet is the least of my worries if it isn't a decisive clean outcome. 

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12 minutes ago, Smileseers said:

 

Maybe if people just created their own circumstances instead of hoping someone else does for them...meh. All these illegals, maybe just apply legally? Or free college....the military does in fact pay for it to include free healthcare, a job and a paycheck. Is that really so difficult.

They don't even know that getting something for nothing. Never going to get anywhere in life. People that work hard will always blow past them. Easily in fact.

 

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3 hours ago, riversco said:

That's the typical bait-and-switch democrats use when talking about polls.

1.  I *always* assert that the polls are often skewed about 5-6% in favor of dems.
2.  Democrats have always twisted my words to assert that I said "polls do not matter" when that is NOT what I said.
3.  Republicans not paying attention start to think I said something I did NOT.

Remember, democrats lie their ASS off.  In this case, MDC is lying and claiming I said polls do not matter. 

Be careful with what democrats say.  They lie constantly.  Fact check everything they say.

Polls have value in that:

1.  If the republican is winning, that means he will win in a rout.
2.  If the democrat leads by a small margin, they almost always means the republican will win.
3.  If the democrat has a huge double digit lead well after summer is over, then the democrat is looking like the winner.

None of that is me saying polls are worthless.

:lol:

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9 hours ago, Reality said:

50% job approval.

 

The best way to read polls are either the aggregate of all polls together or compare a single polling company to how that polling company performed last time and the all the times before that.

With that in mind, Rassmussen tends to give Trump higher scores than other outlets, so dampen enthusiasm for that, but I don't think they ever had him at 50% before which means that he's trending upwards in their polls and seems consistent with the OP's point in posting this thread.

I really hope the debates and the massive enthusiasm gap work in Trump's favor. This mail in voting does seep rife for abuse, where's SCOTUS to rule on this?

 

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I like reading the polling methodologies on Five Thirty Eight. Most are about the same but I like the dark horse ones. Like one, they pay participants over a 6 month period. That one actually got 2016 correct.

Then the percentages of landline, cell, email, social media. What's crazy is in 2016 many were still relying heavily on landlines even though in 2012 social media was trending up. Why use landlines...still scratching my head on that one. And the body of people being polled is so small but people think it's 10's of thousands. A good poll maybe 1200. Rest hundreds yet people are oblivious mostly these are very tiny samples and usually it's the same people being polled again which is misleading. Why not get a new batch of people everytime. They don't like doing that for obvious reasons. 

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2 hours ago, FlyinHeadlock said:

I like reading the polling methodologies on Five Thirty Eight. Most are about the same but I like the dark horse ones. Like one, they pay participants over a 6 month period. That one actually got 2016 correct.

Then the percentages of landline, cell, email, social media. What's crazy is in 2016 many were still relying heavily on landlines even though in 2012 social media was trending up. Why use landlines...still scratching my head on that one. And the body of people being polled is so small but people think it's 10's of thousands. A good poll maybe 1200. Rest hundreds yet people are oblivious mostly these are very tiny samples and usually it's the same people being polled again which is misleading. Why not get a new batch of people everytime. They don't like doing that for obvious reasons. 

People with landlines are much more likely to answer their phone.  The polling analysts claim to take that into account and are OK with heavy landline sample because they use demographic weighting to shore up accuracy.  A big reason Trump-era polling may be WAY off is that Trump voters have suffered a massive loss of trust in the system - and that includes polling - and that makes him much less likely to answer the phone for a poll.  They don't trust the system - they hang up the phone when pollsters call - so they get underrepresented in the polls. 

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/polling-when-people-dont-answer-phones_n_56b3b06ee4b04f9b57d8e014

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/upshot/polls-biden-trump-how-accurate.html

Even if the Polls Are Really Off, Trump Is Still in Trouble

By Nate Cohn
Published July 16, 2020 Updated July 27, 2020

Perhaps the biggest risk is one that has loomed over the polling industry for a decade: declining response rates to telephone surveys. Up until now, there has been little evidence that low response rates have endangered the accuracy of high-quality survey research. It turns out that the people who respond to telephone surveys appear to vote similarly to people from their same demographic group who do not respond.

But they are different in some ways. They are likelier to be volunteers. They are likelier to express trust in their neighbors and society. Such differences could become more significant, or grow into closer alignment with political views. In the worst-case scenario, declining trust in experts, the news media and polling could lead to systematic nonresponse bias, where even adjusting for education or demographics would be far from enough to ensure a representative sample.

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Liberal mantra:

>1% Chance of one person dying of covid :mad:

100% Chance of one mail in vote being fraud.  :dunno:

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I don't understand polls in the least.

One time years back I was doing some work in Delaware, and was thinking about going back to school at some point so I stopped in admissions at the University of Delaware since I had some time to kill on one of the days. When I was sitting in a waiting area in the admissions office a guy came up to me introducing himself as a professor at the college. He said "Excuse me young man, I am a professor here doing a study on youth behavior and current trends. May I ask you why you are wearing your hat backwards?" I said, "I like wearing a hat, and, sometimes I like the bill in front, and sometimes I don't." Guy kept pushing for another reason. Finally I just told him, to make him go away, I played a lot of baseball throughout my youth and got used to wearing it. He replied, "Ooh, you must have played catcher, because they wear theirs backwards." I said, "Yeah, I did play catcher. Good call." He smiled and said thanks, because I guess he really got down to the truth. Thing is, I never played catcher.

That must have been a hell of a study. Reminds me of the polls these days. 

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1 hour ago, Utilit99 said:

I don't understand polls in the least.

One time years back I was doing some work in Delaware, and was thinking about going back to school at some point so I stopped in admissions at the University of Delaware since I had some time to kill on one of the days. When I was sitting in a waiting area in the admissions office a guy came up to me introducing himself as a professor at the college. He said "Excuse me young man, I am a professor here doing a study on youth behavior and current trends. May I ask you why you are wearing your hat backwards?" I said, "I like wearing a hat, and, sometimes I like the bill in front, and sometimes I don't." Guy kept pushing for another reason. Finally I just told him, to make him go away, I played a lot of baseball throughout my youth and got used to wearing it. He replied, "Ooh, you must have played catcher, because they wear theirs backwards." I said, "Yeah, I did play catcher. Good call." He smiled and said thanks, because I guess he really got down to the truth. Thing is, I never played catcher.

That must have been a hell of a study. Reminds me of the polls these days. 

You’re a master at deception. Did you ever  consider working for the CIA? 

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5 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

You’re a master at deception. Did you ever  consider working for the CIA? 

Or working at CNN?

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15 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

You’re a master at deception. Did you ever  consider working for the CIA? 

All I did was let the guy make up his own results for his study. That's all the left does these days. All these "facts" that people throw out there are just fictionalized bits of controlled narrative.

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On 7/31/2020 at 7:24 AM, riversco said:

The polls are outright lies.  They way underrepresent Trump support.  If the democrat poll lead is double digits, then the democrat maybe has a slight lead.  If the democrat has a slight poll lead, then the democrat is losing.

Fun fact:  the last time a republican won the summer polling period was Reagan in 1984.  Ever since then, the media has chronically underreported GOP support every summer.  Infamous cases were Dukakis up by 15% over Bush in summer 88, Gore up by double digits in summer 2000, and Hillary up by 15-20% over Trump in 2016.

https://i.imgur.com/rYDtYek.gif

If you want to break down each year the republican won by summer polling:

1988:  Dukakis up 15%
2000:  Gore up 10+%
2004:  Kerry up 5-10%
2016:  Hillary up 15-20%

The media will tell you that Biden is up 10-15% this summer but, remember, its all about lies of omission with them.  The first question you must ask is "What are they NOT telling me?"  In this case, they are not telling you that in recent republican victories, the democrat was up by double digits 3 out of 4 times in the summer.  So Biden up by this much in the summer is actually normal even in years republicans win.

 

Man I hope you are right. There is nothing worse than these lazy crybabies that have done nothing but throw tantrums for the last 4 years. Pathetic. 

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1 hour ago, Utilit99 said:

"Excuse me young man, I am a professor here doing a study on youth behavior and current trends. May I ask you why you are wearing your hat backwards?" 

:D 

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10 hours ago, Voltaire said:

The best way to read polls are either the aggregate of all polls together or compare a single polling company to how that polling company performed last time and the all the times before that.

With that in mind, Rassmussen tends to give Trump higher scores than other outlets, so dampen enthusiasm for that, but I don't think they ever had him at 50% before which means that he's trending upwards in their polls and seems consistent with the OP's point in posting this thread.

I really hope the debates and the massive enthusiasm gap work in Trump's favor. This mail in voting does seep rife for abuse, where's SCOTUS to rule on this?

 

I'm aware, still a good number after all the garbage that has gone on lately.

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55 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

24/7 media assault on Trump and still 50% of the people haven't been brainwashed by it. :thumbsup:

I hope you are right and most are smart enough to see through the corruption. 

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Nate Silver is trying to cover his azz this time. He throws out some tokens that Trump is an outliner, just hard to say for sure...blah blah.

I was watching his site the night of in 2016 and it was one of the funniest things I had seen during the whole election. He never declared the winner. He shutdown the site when it was confirmed she had no shot in hell. He shut it down. He was tracking it the whole time and then nope. Killed it. 

Only problem, he forget to remove the IM comments LOL! These liberals were bashing the hell out of him, just some of the most vicious, hateful comments I have ever seen. Big smile on my face because that's all they talked about online before...go look at Five Thirty Eight....he has no shot you see because nate says.....

 

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Watch the congressional races.

Republicans are starting to distance themselves from Trump a bit, even his little lap dog McConnell.

If that trend continues it means that republicans in the know think trump is going to lose and by a pretty big margin.

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1 minute ago, IGotWorms said:

Watch the congressional races.

Republicans are starting to distance themselves from Trump a bit, even his little lap dog McConnell.

If that trend continues it means that republicans in the know think trump is going to lose and by a pretty big margin.

Or it could mean they are in politically diverse districts. Or they are just plain dumb.  Dems really don't much care about the Presidential race, thus Biden,  and they are dumping money into the right congressional races. This is generally when the most middle of the road politicians lose their jobs

 

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24 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Watch the congressional races.

Republicans are starting to distance themselves from Trump a bit, even his little lap dog McConnell.

If that trend continues it means that republicans in the know think trump is going to lose and by a pretty big margin.

So funny. Just heard the republican woman running against the incumbent fruitcake congressman (Maloney) in my district this morning on Breitbart radio.  She wasn’t running one bit from Trump. Nothing but praise. Do you have any examples of what you’re taking about or just saying stuff? 

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11 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Watch the congressional races.

Republicans are starting to distance themselves from Trump a bit, even his little lap dog McConnell.

If that trend continues it means that republicans in the know think trump is going to lose and by a pretty big margin.

That is not a valid indicator whatsoever.

Individual candidates distance themselves from the president for lots of reasons.  And anytime a nominee trails by 15%, you'll get more distancing.  But again its summer polling which isn't to be trusted.

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Obama got dumped after the ACA website crashed for months and the keep your doctor sham. Dems were running without even trying to get his endorsement. If he endorsed you it was a death sentence at one point. I don't think Trump is in that scenario. He handled the virus about as good as he could. Got the navy ships, ventilators, blocked travel best he could. Testing is really the only thing but that took a while to figure out. If Hillary was running the show it would have been a total meltdown. Gagging reporters, hiding data, and absolutely no travel bans. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Part of me is hoping that Biden will win so we don’t have to deal with this Democrat meltdown anymore.  These people are so emotionally unstable I do t think they’d be able to deal with 4 more years of Trump.  Such whiners.

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20 minutes ago, Patented Phil said:

Part of me is hoping that Biden will win so we don’t have to deal with this Democrat meltdown anymore.  These people are so emotionally unstable I do t think they’d be able to deal with 4 more years of Trump.  Such whiners.

This is one reason why I want Trump to win. It could be the unraveling of all the liberals across the country. They need to be continually exposed until their own voters start seeing the truth.

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40 minutes ago, Patented Phil said:

Part of me is hoping that Biden will win so we don’t have to deal with this Democrat meltdown anymore.  These people are so emotionally unstable I do t think they’d be able to deal with 4 more years of Trump.  Such whiners.

And if he wins just wait to see the meltdowns when he gets to appoint another Supreme Court judge.

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I hope Trump wins so we can fill up the prisons  with insane SJW ‘s who like to start fires and attack cops. 

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The “keep your doctor” line always cracks me up. My company changed insurance providers in June and guess what? My son’s doctor isn’t part of the new plan. Which is weird because I’m not on the ACA.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Hand said:

And if he wins just wait to see the meltdowns when he gets to appoint another Supreme Court judge.

When Biden appoints Obama, MICHELLE OBAMA to the Supreme Court I look forward to your reasoned and measured reaction. 

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4 minutes ago, MDC said:

The “keep your doctor” line always cracks me up. My company changed insurance providers in June and guess what? My son’s doctor isn’t part of the new plan. Which is weird because I’m not on the ACA.

That has nothing to do with the ACA. People lost their doctors because of the ACA. Nevermind he said rates would fall 2K on average. Like 20 million people their costs went up including mine.

Then the rollout. They didn't scale it right or manage the rollout with smoke testing first. It blew up for months.

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