Bucs sign Lesean McCoy

[polecatt 399]

This is a couple of days old but I haven't seen mention of it.

The Tampa Bay backfield just got even more crowded with Ronald Jones already holding onto the starting job by a thread.

Jones was barely worth having on your team last season, and I personally don't see it getting much better for him this season. This has all the makings of a big time RB by committee. I plan to steer clear of any RB for the Bucs.

They supposedly signed McCoy for receiving purposes, but he could certainly steal a few carries a game as well. He's starting to remind me of Frank Gore, hanging around forever signing one year deal from team to team.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29566452/veteran-rb-lesean-mccoy-reaches-deal-bucs

[weepaws 2,452]

I’m on the opposite thinking when it comes to R Jones, I thought he would be a good rb2 to own. 

Now this is a complete lack of respect to ff owners.  

 

[polecatt 399]

Doesn't seem like they have a lot of confidence in him. They drafted an RB and now signed McCoy. R Jones is going to have to produce early on or I think he may fall off the fantasy map.

I have him on one of my dynasty teams. I played him 3 times and he got me 11 total points. We keep 10, I plan on dropping him.

[weepaws 2,452]

His 8: 7 points per game non ppr was still 32nd best.  

That was only his second season, I think he’ll produce, Bucs had to draft a rb , they lost Barber, so that one actually made me move Jones up my list, the McCoy move hurts.  

 

[Kopy 489]

I think this is just more for insurance than anything else. Sorry Wee, but Jones sux donkey balls. And Vaughn (the future) is on covid I.R. They had to add someone, for whatever type of training camp they can have.

Signing means nothing imo.

 

[Utilit99 4,099]

I pass on this whole backfield. Have fun.

[polecatt 399]

8 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

I pass on this whole backfield. Have fun.

Ditto!

[stonewall 647]

Well, they now have:

Old man Brady, Old man Gronk, and Old man Shady....

Heck, what about an Old-man WR.? Is Andre "Bad Moon" Rison available?

 

[polecatt 399]

2 hours ago, stonewall said:

Well, they now have:

Old man Brady, Old man Gronk, and Old man Shady....

Heck, what about an Old-man WR.? Is Andre "Bad Moon" Rison available?

 

Haha!

Rumor has it, they're in discussions with Irving Fryar

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

McCoy won't really impact Jones that much.  Tampa only had Jones and Ogunbowale on their rosters.  They had to add players.  The fact that all they did was draft a situational player in the 3rd round and 1-year contingency plan, tells me the Bucs really like Jones.  The Bucs averaged 28 targets per game last year from their backfield, with Brady, I think they could be over 32.  I can see Jones getting about 20, McCoy around 8, with Vaughn & Ogunbowale combining for around 4 total per game.  Last year, Jones had 1033 total yards, 6 TD total TD's, and 31 receptions, which comes out to be 10.6 fpg (ppr).  Considering he had 203 total chances (12.5 per game), that's 0.84 points per touch.  If he gets similar efficiency at 20 touches, that'll put him at 16.8 fpg (ppr) - which would put him at RB10 last year.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If he gets similar efficiency at 20 touches, that'll put him at 16.8 fpg (ppr) - which would put him at RB10 last year.

If you think Jones will get 20 touches per game in Arians' offense, you're dreaming.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

17 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

If you think Jones will get 20 touches per game in Arians' offense, you're dreaming.

LOL, who's getting the touches then?  The invisible man?

[AxeElf 787]

26 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

LOL, who's getting the touches then?  The invisible man?

20 touches per game is a LOT.  Only 10 RBs last year exceeded 20 touches per game:  McCaffrey, Fournette, Elliott, Cook, Henry, Carson, Chubb, Bell, Barkley and Jacobs (and only the first six exceeded 21; only one exceeded 23).

Where do you see Jones falling on that list?

Arians' offense emphasizes downfield passing, not plodding up the middle two out of every three downs.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

Nice signing for TBB.  I could see mccoy becoming brady's new james white.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

20 touches per game is a LOT.  Only 10 RBs last year exceeded 20 touches per game:  McCaffrey, Fournette, Elliott, Cook, Henry, Carson, Chubb, Bell, Barkley and Jacobs (and only the first six exceeded 21; only one exceeded 23).

Where do you see Jones falling on that list?

Arians' offense emphasizes downfield passing, not plodding up the middle two out of every three downs.

I see Jones getting about 18 carries and 2 receptions per game (on average).  As I said above, I think Tampa's offense will have more plays to the RB's because I believe they'll be winning more games.

 

I think the Bucs have a legit shot at 11 wins this year.  In the 7 games that Tampa won last year, their rush attempts (by RB's), were: 27, 29, 23, 25, 25, 22, 22... so they averaged almost 25 rush attempts per game.  Arians is NOT going to give the ball to Vaughn or Ogunbowale at the end of games to run out the clock... it'll be Jones and McCoy.  Jones getting 18 carries and 2 receptions in those 11 games is certainly reasonable.  That's 220 touches.

 

In 4 of their 9 losses, they had over 21 attempts per game.  So, let's say in the 5 losses, Jones gets 15 rushes and 2 receptions.  That's 85 touches.

 

That's 305 total touches, meaning 19 touches per game.  Is that close to 20?  I think so.  In my above post, if he maintains the 0.84 fp per touch, that's almost 16 fpg.  That's solid RB2 territory.

[AxeElf 787]

36 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I see Jones getting about 18 carries and 2 receptions per game (on average).

Ok, so you confirm that you are dreaming.  I thought so.

[weepaws 2,452]

13 hours ago, Kopy said:

I think this is just more for insurance than anything else. Sorry Wee, but Jones sux donkey balls. And Vaughn (the future) is on covid I.R. They had to add someone, for whatever type of training camp they can have.

Signing means nothing imo.

 

Maybe your right about all of it.  

This isn’t the season to really reach for a player like R Jones. 

But I just have a feeling he’ll produce above last season, and become a very successful flex play, and even a rb2 play this season. 

But maybe not, I’m usually wrong. 

[weepaws 2,452]

12 hours ago, stonewall said:

Well, they now have:

Old man Brady, Old man Gronk, and Old man Shady....

Heck, what about an Old-man WR.? Is Andre "Bad Moon" Rison available?

 

Thinking more like R Moss. 

[weepaws 2,452]

4 hours ago, Bier Meister said:

Nice signing for TBB.  I could see mccoy becoming brady's new james white.

That’s what I don’t like, I think so to.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

8 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Ok, so you confirm that you are dreaming.  I thought so.

Still waiting on your assessment.......  Or, do you not have you?

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

17 hours ago, Kopy said:

I think this is just more for insurance than anything else. Sorry Wee, but Jones sux donkey balls. And Vaughn (the future) is on covid I.R. They had to add someone, for whatever type of training camp they can have.

Signing means nothing imo.

 

I disagree with both assessments.  Jones doesn't suck and not so sure Vaughn is the future.  Jones rushed for 4.2 yards per carry last year on an OLine that ranked 23rd by footballoutsiders.com.  I don't think he's special by any stretch.  I think many people are of the mindset that if you have a good WR's and a good QB, an decent RB can be very productive within that offense.  Ronald Jones is that guy.  He's going to be the guy this year.  Last year, he had 26 broken tackles.  Of the top 10 RB's last year (based on yards), only Kamara had more.  He's not a bad runner.  His short comings are in pass protection and as a receiver.  I don't expect an increase in the receiving numbers, but if he improves in his pass protection skills, he'll be on the field even more which should keep his receiving numbers similar.

 

In the write-ups I've seen on Vaughn, he comes across as a role player.  He looks like the kind of guy you like to have on your team to spell your starter and fill in from time to time if your starter misses a game or 2 here and there.  He doesn't come across as a guy who'll be anything special.  Also, with virtually no off-season, him being a rookie (on an Arians roster), and being on the COVID list, I highly doubt that Vaughn gets more than 3 or 4 carries a game.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

Maybe your right about all of it.  

This isn’t the season to really reach for a player like R Jones. 

But I just have a feeling he’ll produce above last season, and become a very successful flex play, and even a rb2 play this season. 

But maybe not, I’m usually wrong. 

ADP shows Jones going at RB30, pick 65, so mid-6th round.  I'd have no problem taking him in round 5.  I'd gladly take him over almost everybody after RB14.  Based on ADP, if I left the draft with my first 5 picks being: Derrick Henry (1.7), DeAndre Hopkins (2.6), Adam Thielen (3.7), Calvin Ridley (4.6), & Ronald Jones (5.7), I'm pretty happy with that start.

[weepaws 2,452]

That’s about right, and it depends , I’m in non ppr, the non ppr mocks ive been doing, I’ve been able to get him even in the 6th round, so I’ve been very happy about that, and I hope that trend continues into my live real draft later this month. 

But the 5th or 6th round has been the point we’re I’ve been able to draft him. 

So for those times I’ve been able to pick him, it’s been a flex play a rb3.  

Very happy to get him.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

38 minutes ago, weepaws said:

That’s about right, and it depends , I’m in non ppr, the non ppr mocks ive been doing, I’ve been able to get him even in the 6th round, so I’ve been very happy about that, and I hope that trend continues into my live real draft later this month. 

But the 5th or 6th round has been the point we’re I’ve been able to draft him. 

So for those times I’ve been able to pick him, it’s been a flex play a rb3.  

Very happy to get him.  

 

I think he's better for non-ppr because he's not going to get many receptions and his production will pull him closer to the ppr monsters.

[jrokh 567]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

ADP shows Jones going at RB30, pick 65, so mid-6th round. 

I just did my initial rankings last night, I had no idea what anyone's ADP was. R. Jones was my 29th ranked RB and 67th player overall in .5 ppr format. I look at him as potentially flex-worthy, but I'd feel better about him as an RB4 with upside. Brady, should boost his efficiency, at least a little bit. However, he hasn't been a very good football player to this point, so without the homer glasses on your ranking is a little too generous...

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

10 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I just did my initial rankings last night, I had no idea what anyone's ADP was. R. Jones was my 29th ranked RB and 67th player overall in .5 ppr format. I look at him as potentially flex-worthy, but I'd feel better about him as an RB4 with upside. Brady, should boost his efficiency, at least a little bit. However, he hasn't been a very good football player to this point, so without the homer glasses on your ranking is a little too generous...

I'll ask you the same thing I asked @Axe Elf, and haven't gotten a reasonable response... he actually didn't address it.  Shocking!  Who's going to get the carries?  I clearly laid out what I thought the target share would be.  Where's yours?

[jrokh 567]

10 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'll ask you the same thing I asked @Axe Elf, and haven't gotten a reasonable response... he actually didn't address it.  Shocking!  Who's going to get the carries?  I clearly laid out what I thought the target share would be.  Where's yours?

There are four RB's on the roster. Bruce Arians hasn't shared his game plan with me. I think Ronald Jones will definitely get the largest share at the start of the season. That's why I said he may be flex-worthy. He is also a player with a 3.9 ypc career average. As I stated earlier, I think Brady will help his efficiency. As for how the Bucs split the carries, we shall see. RB 29 is where I have him, you alluded to him being RB 15 at best. I think that is way too generous, and only a homer would have him anywhere near that high. I guess we shall see who got it right...

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

20 minutes ago, jrokh said:

There are four RB's on the roster. Bruce Arians hasn't shared his game plan with me. I think Ronald Jones will definitely get the largest share at the start of the season. That's why I said he may be flex-worthy. He is also a player with a 3.9 ypc career average. As I stated earlier, I think Brady will help his efficiency. As for how the Bucs split the carries, we shall see. RB 29 is where I have him, you alluded to him being RB 15 at best. I think that is way too generous, and only a homer would have him anywhere near that high. I guess we shall see who got it right...

Serious question here how can you do rankings when you don't have an idea of how players will be used?

[jrokh 567]

4 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Serious question here how can you do rankings when you don't have an idea of how players will be used?

Really? You make the best educated guesses you can based on the information available. The hope is to get more right then wrong. It is a virtual certainty your draft will not be perfect. Have you played FF before?

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

21 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Really? You make the best educated guesses you can based on the information available. The hope is to get more right then wrong. It is a virtual certainty your draft will not be perfect. Have you played FF before?

Ok, so you're taking other people's word for it.  That's fine.  I saw a lot of those projections.  People are seriously under estimating Jones and over estimating McCoy.  If McCoy gets more than 5 carries a game, I'll be shocked!!  There's a 0% chance he has more than 100 carries.  I'll never play fantasy football again if I'm wrong on that one.  A lot of the projections I've seen have him over 150.  LOL, gtfoh, he's not going come close to that.  He'll probably be around half of that, like at 80.  To note, I'm not saying Jones some special talent.  Not by any stretch.  I'm just saying he's a LOT better than what they have.  McCoy has his value, and it's as a pass catcher.  That's what he'll be used for.  He'll spell Jones here and there, as will Vaughn, but that's all either will be used for in the running game.

 

The only way McCoy or Vaughn get a bunch of carries will be if Jones get's hurt or sick.  If Jones plays all 16 games healthy, McCoy, Vaughn, and Ogunbowale will max out at 7 combined carries per game.

[Utilit99 4,099]

19 hours ago, polecatt said:

Haha!

Rumor has it, they're in discussions with Irving Fryar

They want Peter Frampton for the half time show.

[jrokh 567]

2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Ok, so you're taking other people's word for it.  That's fine.  I saw a lot of those projections.  People are seriously under estimating Jones and over estimating McCoy.  If McCoy gets more than 5 carries a game, I'll be shocked!!  There's a 0% chance he has more than 100 carries.  I'll never play fantasy football again if I'm wrong on that one.  A lot of the projections I've seen have him over 150.  LOL, gtfoh, he's not going come close to that.  He'll probably be around half of that, like at 80.  To note, I'm not saying Jones some special talent.  Not by any stretch.  I'm just saying he's a LOT better than what they have.  McCoy has his value, and it's as a pass catcher.  That's what he'll be used for.  He'll spell Jones here and there, as will Vaughn, but that's all either will be used for in the running game.

 

The only way McCoy or Vaughn get a bunch of carries will be if Jones get's hurt or sick.  If Jones plays all 16 games healthy, McCoy, Vaughn, and Ogunbowale will max out at 7 combined carries per game.

No, It's my own ranking. I like 28 Rb's more than Jones. I don't care where anyone else has him. For example, I like Barkley CMC, Zeke and Henry more than him, because when I watched them play they all looked like amazing football players. When I watched Jones play, he always looked rather pedestrian to my experienced eye. The fact that every one who isn't a Bucs fan agrees with my assessment is coincidence...  

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

23 minutes ago, jrokh said:

No, It's my own ranking. I like 28 Rb's more than Jones. I don't care where anyone else has him. For example, I like Barkley CMC, Zeke and Henry more than him, because when I watched them play they all looked like amazing football players. When I watched Jones play, he always looked rather pedestrian to my experienced eye. The fact that every one who isn't a Bucs fan agrees with my assessment is coincidence...  

No, just makes you all wrong.  I'm not always right about other teams, because I don't follow them.  I'm right a lot, when it comes to Bucs players.

[weepaws 2,452]

Lol, just because the one agrees with the majority doesn’t make that the right decision. 

But it does let you fit in.  

And usually more important to people, than how they really feel about something, just like D Brees.  

  

 

[AxeElf 787]

8 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Still waiting on your assessment.......  Or, do you not have you?

One thing is for certain, Axe Elf will always have Axe Elf.

You may have missed my assessment above, so I will quote it for your convenience:

18 hours ago, AxeElf said:

20 touches per game is a LOT.  Only 10 RBs last year exceeded 20 touches per game:  McCaffrey, Fournette, Elliott, Cook, Henry, Carson, Chubb, Bell, Barkley and Jacobs (and only the first six exceeded 21; only one exceeded 23).

Where do you see Jones falling on that list?

Arians' offense emphasizes downfield passing, not plodding up the middle two out of every three downs.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

11 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

One thing is for certain, Axe Elf will always have Axe Elf.

You may have missed my assessment above, so I will quote it for your convenience:

 

That's not breaking down the Bucs on how you think the ball distribution will be handled.

[stonewall 647]

15 hours ago, weepaws said:

Thinking more like R Moss. 

I'd seriously love to see Dez brought into TB.

That would complete the retirement roster.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That's not breaking down the Bucs on how you think the ball distribution will be handled.

The only relevant part of any such breakdown is that Ronald Jones will have fewer than 20 touches per game.  That was my point, in contrast to your suggestion that Ronald Jones' fantasy points could be estimated from his points-per-touch last year and an expectation of 20 touches per game this year.  The number of touches that any other player on the team has doesn't matter.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

43 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

The only relevant part of any such breakdown is that Ronald Jones will have fewer than 20 touches per game.  That was my point, in contrast to your suggestion that Ronald Jones' fantasy points could be estimated from his points-per-touch last year and an expectation of 20 touches per game this year.  The number of touches that any other player on the team has doesn't matter.

Thanks for the input.  Don't be upset when I ignore it.

[AxeElf 787]

5 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Thanks for the input.  Don't be upset when I ignore it.

Well... kinda.  I was hoping maybe you'd offer up a $50 bet or something, but I can understand why you wouldn't.