Bucs sign Lesean McCoy

[Matt Mueller 146]

Guys my reasoning for mentioning the Pats backfield was that Tom Brady has produced a top 20 running back 3 seasons running.   Top 20 running backs who didn't have a work horse role, with relatively minimal and sometimes inconsistent touches in a Pats rotating backfield.  

 

[Matt Mueller 146]

After a distarous 2018 season Ronald Jones entered the 2019 season as the 'backup' to 'starter' Peyton Barber.   

 

Week 1 against San FranCisco he took 13 carries for 75 yards.  He played the 3rd most snaps on the team.  

His week 1 rushing effiency was 6th in the leauge week 1 behind the ususal names.    

https://www.tampabay.com/sports/bucs/2019/09/12/why-you-should-believe-in-ronald-jones/

If he's a bad running back because you don't like him, or his tape or whatever that's one thing.

His metrics graded out well all over the place.  Redzone, efficiency, 20 yard runs.     

[weepaws 2,452]

25 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

When I referenced RB3, I was talking about the third RB on your team.  Yes, I think Jones will be in the top 36 but I think for your own team you should strive for your third RB to be in the top 25.  I think there is a big drop in ppg that happens right in that area.  For instance, in my reference mag (which unfortunately is now ppr) the #24 M Sanders was 13.8 ppr and #31 D Montgomery came in at 10.9.  That is a cliff like drop that consistently  occurs right in that area.  R Jones was #33 at 10.6 (which includes 1.9 receptions per game = 8.7 non-ppr).

In a non-ppr leagues filling the flex with a workhorse RB that can give you 12 ppg's is the goal, because the 20th ranked WR will only come in around 9 ppg.

I think Jones is worthy of being in the top 25.  I see him has a high rb3 flex play, but I think he has low rb2 value. N

 

[weepaws 2,452]

10 minutes ago, Matt Mueller said:

After a distarous 2018 season Ronald Jones entered the 2019 season as the 'backup' to 'starter' Peyton Barber.   

 

Week 1 against San FranCisco he took 13 carries for 75 yards.  He played the 3rd most snaps on the team.  

His week 1 rushing effiency was 6th in the leauge week 1 behind the ususal names.    

https://www.tampabay.com/sports/bucs/2019/09/12/why-you-should-believe-in-ronald-jones/

If he's a bad running back because you don't like him, or his tape or whatever that's one thing.

His metrics graded out well all over the place.  Redzone, efficiency, 20 yard runs.     

I don’t think he’s not a good player, I just don’t think he’s a top talent.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

Be careful @Matt Mueller, you're closing in on blind homer status.

[Einstein's Dog 20]

27 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't really agree with your assessment of the running game, but you may end up being right.

I agree with Brady being hidden value.  I've seen projections, rankings, and ADP having him in the 13 to 18 range.  I can see him finishing in the top 5.  Last year, only 1 QB had more than 35 total touchdowns.  I think Brady can do that this year.  The thing that I'd caution you on though is the TE's.  Each of them have injury histories.  While I'd love for all 3 to be available for 16 games, I just don't think they will.  I think you'd have to assume that each one will miss at least 2 games each.

And of course you could be right.  No offense in differing opinions.  And I liked your stout analysis of C Godwin last year (quite helpful to a very successful season).  I live just south of Tampa and am hopeful of a big season - especially with the Superbowl here.

And this year,  a key to my FF season draft strategy is delaying the QB pick and targeting Brady.  Yes the TEs may have some injury history but they have 3 of them!  I thought they were going to trade away O Howard and bring in D Freeman.  But the powers that be seem, IMO, to be all-in on an air show.  My conspiracy instincts think Brady and Arians are in sync with the live or die through an offensive air show.  I think it will be short passes all the way down the field and in - Evans/Godwin/Gronk/Howard/and even Bates.  Even the RB they drafted is more a dump off receiver type than a power goal line Z Moss that they  could have opted for.

[Einstein's Dog 20]

20 minutes ago, Matt Mueller said:

After a distarous 2018 season Ronald Jones entered the 2019 season as the 'backup' to 'starter' Peyton Barber.   

 

Week 1 against San FranCisco he took 13 carries for 75 yards.  He played the 3rd most snaps on the team.  

His week 1 rushing effiency was 6th in the leauge week 1 behind the ususal names.    

https://www.tampabay.com/sports/bucs/2019/09/12/why-you-should-believe-in-ronald-jones/

If he's a bad running back because you don't like him, or his tape or whatever that's one thing.

His metrics graded out well all over the place.  Redzone, efficiency, 20 yard runs.     

Not all metrics were good - his fpg's of under 10 a game made him dropable in fantasy last year.

I consider him a poor RB by the eye test.  I've watched him and couldn't believe he couldn't take the job from Barber - who stinks.  They wanted Jones to be the man, he just isn't.  Now in terms of getting the ball to the talent you would go - Evans, then Godwin, then Gronk, then Howard, then it's a tie between Brate and Jones (until Vaughn unseats him).  And if Jones does something boneheaded (25% probability) the position will be a 60/40 split with McCoy until Vaughn is ready.

[weepaws 2,452]

Don’t see McCoy getting 40%. 

[Matt Mueller 146]

22 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Not all metrics were good - his fpg's of under 10 a game made him dropable in fantasy last year.

I consider him a poor RB by the eye test.  I've watched him and couldn't believe he couldn't take the job from Barber - who stinks.  They wanted Jones to be the man, he just isn't.  Now in terms of getting the ball to the talent you would go - Evans, then Godwin, then Gronk, then Howard, then it's a tie between Brate and Jones (until Vaughn unseats him).  And if Jones does something boneheaded (25% probability) the position will be a 60/40 split with McCoy until Vaughn is ready.

Sometimes players come in to the NFL not ready to produce.   This was a pretty good read by Richard at CBS.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2020-fantasy-football-draft-prep-stronger-smarter-ronald-jones-poised-for-breakout-season-in-tampa-bay/

[Einstein's Dog 20]

25 minutes ago, Matt Mueller said:

Sometimes players come in to the NFL not ready to produce.   This was a pretty good read by Richard at CBS.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2020-fantasy-football-draft-prep-stronger-smarter-ronald-jones-poised-for-breakout-season-in-tampa-bay/

It didn't convert me.  I did find it interesting that they were deliberately trying to add weight.  I thought he looked sluggish last year and he is adding more weight this year?.  Also the article was a little dated, the McCoy addition does put some pressure on Jones to produce.

Also with my thinking that Brady/Arians are going all-in on the offensive air attack, Jones' 53 out 60 on pass protection had better be improved day  1. 

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think it will be short passes all the way down the field and in...

Arians' offense has traditionally been more concerned with downfield passing, and they just signed one of the better deep-ball passers in the league.  I doubt if he will change things up now.

[Matt Mueller 146]

24 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

It didn't convert me.  I did find it interesting that they were deliberately trying to add weight.  I thought he looked sluggish last year and he is adding more weight this year?.  Also the article was a little dated, the McCoy addition does put some pressure on Jones to produce.

Also with my thinking that Brady/Arians are going all-in on the offensive air attack, Jones' 53 out 60 on pass protection had better be improved day  1. 

I'm not trying to convert anyone but here's a more recent one.

 

https://www.buccaneers.com/news/ronald-jones-lesean-mccoy-2020-receiving-game

 

Again anyone is fine with the opinion of 'he looked sluggish last year' but the stats bear out that he gained 9.35 yards after the catch which was 4th among all running backs.

 

His 10.0 YPR was 5th in the leauge higher than Cook, McCaffery and James White. 

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, Matt Mueller said:

His 10.0 YPR was 5th in the leauge higher than Cook, McCaffery and James White. 

Imagine what a GOOD RB could do in that downfield passing offense...

[weepaws 2,452]

53 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Imagine what a GOOD RB could do in that downfield passing offense...

We have, Jones is a good player, he’s not a great player. 

Thanks. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

11 hours ago, weepaws said:

We have, Jones is a good player, he’s not a great player. 

Thanks. 

Precisely.

[Matt Mueller 146]

When I agree with weepaws the thread has reached terminal velocity 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

Well, I am no longer the "King! Supreme Leader of the Homers".  It was a short-lived crown.  Today on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Jeff Erickson and Chris Liss from Rotowire were talking about Ronald Jones being a possible Top 7 RB this year.  

[Ray_T 587]

22 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Well, I am no longer the "King! Supreme Leader of the Homers".  It was a short-lived crown.  Today on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Jeff Erickson and Chris Liss from Rotowire were talking about Ronald Jones being a possible Top 7 RB this year.  

yeah, that's pushing it.

I'd buy the argument that he could do better than last year.

That is definitely something that could happen.

I'd buy the argument hes a bit undervalued.

Not buying that hes a top 7 RB.   I have not done my RB rankings yet, but I'm pretty confident hes not in my top 10

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

yeah, that's pushing it.

I'd buy the argument that he could do better than last year.

That is definitely something that could happen.

I'd buy the argument hes a bit undervalued.

Not buying that hes a top 7 RB.   I have not done my RB rankings yet, but I'm pretty confident hes not in my top 10

I agree.  I'm on record as saying he could be #15.

[Ray_T 587]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I agree.  I'm on record as saying he could be #15.

and coming from a Tampa homer, I dont see why anyone would disagree.  You know more about this team than most of us here because you are a big fan.

Homers usually overvalue their players.   so this should be pretty close to the max most would rank him.

[Matt Mueller 146]

The main reason people think that Jones stats could go up is that he actually only played about 36% of the total snaps last year.   

Other running backs with his comporable efficiency and metrics that finished  ahead of him in fantasy where on the field for an average of 61% of the total team snaps.

This is another agressive take but it boils this thread down in a tight nice little package with some stats and highlights 

 

https://www.bucsnation.com/2020/8/11/21362431/ronald-jones-will-be-a-top-10-running-back-in-2020-tampa-bay-buccaneers-bucs   

[jrokh 567]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Well, I am no longer the "King! Supreme Leader of the Homers".  It was a short-lived crown.  Today on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Jeff Erickson and Chris Liss from Rotowire were talking about Ronald Jones being a possible Top 7 RB this year.  

The implication of the crown is for the users who frequent this bored. It doesn't apply to any random moron who spouts a meaningless prediction. Fear not, you are and always will be the king of the homers on this forearm...

[weepaws 2,452]

17 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Well, I am no longer the "King! Supreme Leader of the Homers".  It was a short-lived crown.  Today on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Jeff Erickson and Chris Liss from Rotowire were talking about Ronald Jones being a possible Top 7 RB this year.  

Wow, now that is swinging for the fences with that projection.  

[weepaws 2,452]

3 hours ago, Matt Mueller said:

When I agree with weepaws the thread has reached terminal velocity 

Right. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

11 hours ago, jrokh said:

The implication of the crown is for the users who frequent this bored. It doesn't apply to any random moron who spouts a meaningless prediction. Fear not, you are and always will be the king of the homers on this forearm...

Random moron?  They're supposed "experts" in the fantasy sports industry.  LOL

[jrokh 567]

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Random moron?  They're supposed "experts" in the fantasy sports industry.  LOL

Today on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Jeff Erickson and Chris Liss from Rotowire were talking about Ronald Jones being a possible Top 7 RB this year.  

 

Well Our very own 'Expert' The Fantasy Guru just had Ronald McDonald at RB 24. Are you suggesting the bozos on Sirius XM carry more weight then Mr. Orth?

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

40 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Today on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Jeff Erickson and Chris Liss from Rotowire were talking about Ronald Jones being a possible Top 7 RB this year.  

 

Well Our very own 'Expert' The Fantasy Guru just had Ronald McDonald at RB 24. Are you suggesting the bozos on Sirius XM carry more weight then Mr. Orth?

LOL, your arrogance has no bounds, does it.

 

ETA: You know what, I'll ask him.  How's that?

ETA2: After diving in deeper, I don't have too.  I think his numbers in general for Tampa are pretty low.  It's clear he doesn't think Tampa will be all that good this year.  That's fine, I see nothing wrong with that opinion.  Apparently though, YOU seem to have a problem with people who have opinions higher than that.

[AxeElf 787]

On 8/2/2020 at 6:06 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

If he gets similar efficiency at 20 touches, that'll put him at 16.8 fpg (ppr) - which would put him at RB10 last year.

I'll give you this; if his 18-yard catch hadn't been nullified by penalty, Ronald Jones would have had 20 touches in Week 1--and 13.0 fantasy points, which, absent a TD, is about what you projected for him.

I still don't think he averages 20 touches per game for the season, but it's a good sign for my 20-man league team.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

12 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I'll give you this; if his 18-yard catch hadn't been nullified by penalty, Ronald Jones would have had 20 touches in Week 1--and 13.0 fantasy points, which, absent a TD, is about what you projected for him.

I still don't think he averages 20 touches per game for the season, but it's a good sign for my 20-man league team.

I think this is about his ceiling, in touches, now that Fournette is there where as prior to Fournette, I didn't think there's be a lot of competition of touches.  It will all come down to wins and losses though.  In games where the Bucs are winning, both Fournette and Jones will get a bunch of touches, with Jones getting the lions share.

Statistical tid-bit.  On the Bucs' first possession, Jones had 6 touches, 5 carries for 11 yards and 1 reception for 8 yards.  In that drive, the Bucs only had 2 plays on 3rd down, and Jones had 2 yard carry on a 3rd and 1 for a first down.  Also, in the first half, the Bucs had 5 possessions.  In those 5 possessions, they had a 3rd and short (3 yards or less), a total of 4 times.  On 3 of those occasions, they handed the ball to Jones and he got a 1st down each time.  The other one was a DPI for 22 yards.

In the first 3 Q's, when the Bucs only trailed by 7 at the end of the 3rd, Jones had 18 of his 19 total touches.  In the 4th Q, Jones (1), McCoy (1), and Fournette (0), combined for a total of 2 touches.

[stonewall 647]

I'd think it's safe to assume that Jones and Fournette will probably be splitting carries/touches in the weeks to come, with some Shady and even Vaughn mixed in. Tough recipe for FF, which is why I stayed away,

[AxeElf 787]

25 minutes ago, stonewall said:

I'd think it's safe to assume that Jones and Fournette will probably be splitting carries/touches in the weeks to come, with some Shady and even Vaughn mixed in. Tough recipe for FF, which is why I stayed away,

There really isn't any backfield in the NFL that doesn't split carries/touches any more, so if you stay away from RBs that do, you're going zero RB.

Best you can hope for is something like a 65% to 70% share, like Joe Mixon or Ronald Jones.

[stonewall 647]

13 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

There really isn't any backfield in the NFL that doesn't split carries/touches any more, so if you stay away from RBs that do, you're going zero RB.

Best you can hope for is something like a 65% to 70% share, like Joe Mixon or Ronald Jones.

Mixon, yes....but RoJo's situation is a bit different. Assuming Vaughn has some legit skills, as is assumed, and McCoy actually does have some burn left in him....then you have 4 RB's in TB worthy of playing time. I still believe that RoJo will be doing good to garner over 40% of touches by mid-season, or perhaps earlier if Fournette shows something. The only thing in my mind that would prevent this inevitability would be an injury, or RoJo playing so well that they can't justify not having him on the field.....which is possible, but unlikely imho.

[AxeElf 787]

12 minutes ago, stonewall said:

Assuming Vaughn has some legit skills, as is assumed, and McCoy actually does have some burn left in him....then you have 4 RB's in TB worthy of playing time.

I kind of doubt that McCoy axually does have some burn left in him, after watching him allow a sack on Brady by missing a block, and reportedly pissing off Brady by running the wrong route at least once.

So that would make 2 RBs in TB worthy of playing time--and one of them will primarily be a special teams player (Vaughn).