PPR no 2 pick...Zeke/Barkley...Discuss

[stonewall 647]

7 hours ago, AxeElf said:

The idea is to draft THIS year's passing TD leader.

Could he bust?  Sure, this is FF. Could CEH bust? Could (gasp) CMac? Of course.

Barring injury, I expect to be quite satisfied with Jackson as my second round pick. I suspect you are being obtuse, as usual, and fully recognize his immense upside. After all, if you could draft a very likely top 10 QB and a top 10 RB with the same pick in the late 1st/early second, with top-5 upside in both of the aforementioned categories....why wouldn't you?

Straight flush always beats a straight.

[stonewall 647]

And back to topic....I would personally take Zeke over Barkley based on these facts:

1. Zeke has proven to be highly durable. Barkley has not (yet)

2. Although Jones is an up-and-comer, Dak is proven. Having Cooper, Gallop, and Ceedee (not to mention Jarwin) will not allow Defenses to regularly stack the box.

3. Zeke has shown to be a better goal line back.

4. Zeke is low-key faded.

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, stonewall said:

After all, if you could draft a very likely top 10 QB and a top 10 RB with the same pick in the late 1st/early second, with top-5 upside in both of the aforementioned categories....why wouldn't you?

See how shiny they look?  That's what the trap uses for bait.  And you fell for it.

The problem is that you CAN'T draft both a QB and a RB with the same pick at the first turn; you have to choose one or the other.  If you choose the RB, you are very likely able to get a comparable QB ten rounds later.  If you choose the QB, you are very likely to have a RB3 as your RB2, a WR3 as your WR2, and a WR4 as your WR3.

But like I said, hopefully your experience this season will be a better teacher than Axe Elf.

[Ray_T 588]

6 hours ago, stonewall said:

Could he bust?  Sure, this is FF. Could CEH bust? Could (gasp) CMac? Of course.

Barring injury, I expect to be quite satisfied with Jackson as my second round pick. I suspect you are being obtuse, as usual, and fully recognize his immense upside. After all, if you could draft a very likely top 10 QB and a top 10 RB with the same pick in the late 1st/early second, with top-5 upside in both of the aforementioned categories....why wouldn't you?

Straight flush always beats a straight.

in a serpentine draft,  the way I approach it is like this:

if you have a top QB available and a top RB available and you are picking at #10 in a 12 team league......

you have to figure out the odds of your player making it through the turn and getting back to you at #15.   

Being so close to the turn, there is a fair chance if you play it right, you could get both players.

generally in most redraft leagues with standard (or PPR) rules,  your better move is to wait on the QB.

probably moreso in PPR than standard because the catches generally make WR and RB more valuable and it does not affect the QB point production.

so a RB who makes 60 catches a season will have 60 more points in a PPR format than he would in a standard format.

all things being equal, that means you can afford to wait on your QB's a bit longer. 

i also take other things into account:

for example..... the players you are considering.... are they the last player in that tier of players for the position.  if they are, there is more likely to be a significant dropoff if that player gets taken before you pick again.

this is where mocking can be helpful.   go over each scenario a couple of times to see which player gets taken first. 

even if you like player A better than player B, if player B is going 8 spots earlier than player A on average, the smart move is to take player B and hope you get player A after the turn.  if this works out, you get both of the players you want.

I look at the best and worst case scenario for the player dropoff if you dont get your player.   Sometimes it makes sense to go against conventional wisdom based on the expected dropoff

if there are only one or two players between you and the turn, you can look at those rosters.  if player A needs WR and player B needs a RB (or if either of those players have a history of filling one position early) then you can make an educated guess as to who they will pick.   then pick your player based on that.

 

anyhow, there are a lot of what ifs here, but it all generally falls under the category of 'know your league'

[stonewall 647]

19 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

anyhow, there are a lot of what ifs here, but it all generally falls under the category of 'know your league'

Yes sir....this is the bottom line.

With the last pick in a 12-man non-ppr, looking at 23 picks before my next selection and targeting Lamar Jackson or Mahomie as my QB, the choice was easy. Neither would have come anywhere near falling to the late 3rd.

[AxeElf 787]

39 minutes ago, stonewall said:

Yes sir....this is the bottom line.

With the last pick in a 12-man non-ppr, looking at 23 picks before my next selection and targeting Lamar Jackson or Mahomie as my QB, the choice was easy. Neither would have come anywhere near falling to the late 3rd.

But at least you wouldn't be the schmuck who ruined his team to get one of them.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

Ray- when we are talking about taking a top qb early, I think it comes down to the differential between the next tier of qb's.  and especially the difference between what is available in later rounds (beyond 6th).

 

if i bite high on, say a mchomes or jackson, it is because i am accepting the risk that the differential with the loss at rb/wr is greater than what i could have gotten as rb2/wr2 and one of the deeper qbs. I dislike chasing a position (as mentioned by Axe) so  I rarely do it. But if one falls a decent amount beyond adp I have made the move.

[stonewall 647]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

But at least you wouldn't be the schmuck who ruined his team to get one of them.

...or bought a Playoff berth by eschewing group think.

[weepaws 2,456]

Problem I’ve had in the past chasing either a Qb or a Te early, is I want to draft another early to back up my high investment Incase of a injury.  

We’ve had this chat last season and before and before, each their own, but I chase qbs and tes later in the draft, usually after round seven, until than I don’t look at them, don’t what to rethink my cheat sheet during my draft. 

[Ray_T 588]

21 hours ago, Bier Meister said:

Ray- when we are talking about taking a top qb early, I think it comes down to the differential between the next tier of qb's.  and especially the difference between what is available in later rounds (beyond 6th).

 

if i bite high on, say a mchomes or jackson, it is because i am accepting the risk that the differential with the loss at rb/wr is greater than what i could have gotten as rb2/wr2 and one of the deeper qbs. I dislike chasing a position (as mentioned by Axe) so  I rarely do it. But if one falls a decent amount beyond adp I have made the move.

well, its all about tradeoffs.

we all make these decisions in every draft even if we dont consciously make the decision to do so.

when you elect not to take Mahomes in round 1, you are basically trading the dropoff at one position for the dropoff at another.

By my calculations,  Mahomes and Jackson are the only QB's worthy of an early selection in any redraft.

of course, we all have our numbers, but for ease of reference, I'm going to use the fftoday numbers just because it makes it easier to make my point.  I am not necessarily endorsing the numbers (especially for Dak) but I will use them.  

FFtoday has Jackson down for 400 points for the year.  if you believe in the list, you are giving up 7 fantasy points over the course of the year by picking him in round 2 (as I think Dak would likely be available when you pick next)   If you feel Dak wont be on the board when you pick next, you are then giving up 34 points at the QB position over the course of the year.

 

in scenario 1 where Dak is available when you pick next, you are likely giving up  aproximately 1/2 point per game if you dont pick Jackson here.

in scenario 2 where Dak Goes as well, you are likely giving up nearly 3 fantasy points per game if you dont pick him here.

of course if Jackson goes before you get to pick, all of this does not matter, but you may go through the same exercise with Dak instead.

That being said, in a 12 person draft, the players you should be thinking about picking at this point in the draft at RB is likely one of the following RB's:

Aaron Jones

Edwards Helaire

Mixon

Drake

At WR the players you most likely are thinking about picking are:

Tyreek Hill

Hopkins

Golladay

Thelien

 

There is the possibility that one of the higher ranked RB/WR players is still on the board, but we are going on the assumption that everyone values players the same as the fftoday list for comparison.

at this point I think there is a good probability that 3 or 4 WR are off the board when you are picking at 12 and 13

if you are considering Lamar Jackson, the assumption needs to be that Mahomes is gone, or you think hes inferior to Jackson.  Regardless of which scenario you believe in,  your analysis is the same.  I dont think Mahomes is on the board when the draft comes back to you in round 3, so you are still looking at the potential dropoff from Jackson to Dak or Kyler Murray. (so a 1/2 to 3 point drop in points at the QB position by not taking Jackson)  I dont see more than 4 QB's being taken by the end of round 3 so I have not gone further in the analysis.  if you feel differently, you can go further and calculate the dropoff to the next couple QB's. 

at this point in the draft, if Aaron Jones is the best RB on the board   fftoday projects him to be scoring 210 points over the year.   if you assume 10-11 RBs come off the board before you pick again, you are likely looking at

Leveon Bell, 

Ekeler

David Johnson

James Conor.

bell, ekeler and DJ are projected to get 175,174 and 173 points respectively.  connor 165.

so we are looking at a dropoff of 35-42 points.  in a 12 team league that is 3-3.5 points.

If you think more than 10 RB's will come off the board, maybe you expect an extra 1/2 to 1 point dropoff by not taking a RB here.   If you think less than 10 RB's come off the board, your dropoff is smaller.  Likely in the 2.5 point range.

Therefore, if my assumption that 10 or more RB's come off the board before you pick next, you should probably take 2 RB's at this spot in the draft.

you can go through the same exercise with WR's too.  I am doing a basic analysis as the dropoff from Tyreek hill (WR4) to TY hilton at WR22 is 27 points or 2.3 fantasy points rounded.  this would imply that WR is not a good choice here unless a higher ranked WR such as Julio or Davante adams drops to you.

keep in mind, we are assuming everyone values players the same.    in reality, you probably want to use ADP numbers  and cross reference with your projections but I dont have enough info to do this yet. 

but the early expectation is that RB-RB is the way to go here.

(assuming of course that you trust the fftoday projections)

personally, when I draft in a serpentine draft, I typically take fftoday projections and adjust based on what I think is more realistic and then go through a process similar to this with my own draft planning.

That being said, this kind of analysis really can only be done in the first 2-3 rounds of a draft.  after that it gets too chaotic because people will go off the board more often as the draft progresses and higher ranked players will drop in the draft more often too.

it is naturally assumed that if a higher ranked WR or RB than those stated as the likely targets drops to you, it is a no brainer to take them.

I do hope this analysis helps you.

of course if you feel you dont like the fftoday projections, just substitute your own and use ADP's to determine who is likely available at that point in your draft.

 

good Luck.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

28 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

well, its all about tradeoffs. that was my point, and risk assessment.

we all make these decisions in every draft even if we dont consciously make the decision to do so.

when you elect not to take Mahomes in round 1, you are basically trading the dropoff at one position for the dropoff at another.

By my calculations,  Mahomes and Jackson are the only QB's worthy of an early selection in any redraft. worthy is debatable, but also how early?

of course, we all have our numbers, but for ease of reference, I'm going to use the fftoday numbers just because it makes it easier to make my point.  I am not necessarily endorsing the numbers (especially for Dak) but I will use them.  

FFtoday has Jackson down for 400 points for the year.  if you believe in the list it is all speculation, you are giving up 7 fantasy points over the course of the year by picking him in round 2 (as I think Dak would likely be available when you pick next). which round are you suggesting someone is taking dak?   If you feel Dak wont be on the board when you pick next, you are then giving up 34 points at the QB position over the course of the year. how early do qb's go in your league?  Is scoring qb friendly?

 

in scenario 1 where Dak is available when you pick next, you are likely giving up  aproximately 1/2 point per game if you dont pick Jackson here. what is that next pick you are talking about? 3rd-4th round? Why is that assumed? Is it based on your league's scoring and draft tendencies?

in scenario 2 where Dak Goes as well, you are likely giving up nearly 3 fantasy points per game if you dont pick him here.

of course if Jackson goes before you get to pick, all of this does not matter, but you may go through the same exercise with Dak instead.

That being said, in a 12 person draft, the players you should be thinking about picking at this point in the draft at RB is likely one of the following RB's:

Aaron Jones

Edwards Helaire

Mixon

Drake

At WR the players you most likely are thinking about picking are:

Tyreek Hill

Hopkins

Golladay

Thelien

 

There is the possibility that one of the higher ranked RB/WR players is still on the board, but we are going on the assumption that everyone values players the same as the fftoday list for comparison.

at this point I think there is a good probability that 3 or 4 WR are off the board when you are picking at 12 and 13 yes, by the turn there is a high likelihood that the only non-rb/wr taken is kelce or kittle

if you are considering Lamar Jackson, the assumption needs to be that Mahomes is gone, or you think hes inferior to Jackson.  Regardless of which scenario you believe in,  your analysis is the same.  I dont think Mahomes is on the board when the draft comes back to you in round 3, so you are still looking at the potential dropoff from Jackson to Dak or Kyler Murray. (so a 1/2 to 3 point drop in points at the QB position by not taking Jackson)  I dont see more than 4 QB's being taken by the end of round 3 so I have not gone further in the analysis.  if you feel differently, you can go further and calculate the dropoff to the next couple QB's. 

personal preference, but if i choose to pass on jackson and mahomes, i am likely going to wait longer to get my qb1 (6th-9th rnd), because i believe the difference is marginal and historically there is a lot of movement for end of season rankings

at this point in the draft, if Aaron Jones is the best RB on the board   fftoday projects him to be scoring 210 points over the year.   if you assume 10-11 RBs come off the board before you pick again, you are likely looking at

Leveon Bell, 

Ekeler

David Johnson

James Conor.

bell, ekeler and DJ are projected to get 175,174 and 173 points respectively.  connor 165.

so we are looking at a dropoff of 35-42 points.  in a 12 team league that is 3-3.5 points.

If you think more than 10 RB's will come off the board, maybe you expect an extra 1/2 to 1 point dropoff by not taking a RB here.   If you think less than 10 RB's come off the board, your dropoff is smaller.  Likely in the 2.5 point range.

Therefore, if my assumption that 10 or more RB's come off the board before you pick next, you should probably take 2 RB's at this spot in the draft.

you can go through the same exercise with WR's too.  I am doing a basic analysis as the dropoff from Tyreek hill (WR4) to TY hilton at WR22 is 27 points or 2.3 fantasy points rounded.  this would imply that WR is not a good choice here unless a higher ranked WR such as Julio or Davante adams drops to you.

keep in mind, we are assuming everyone values players the same.    in reality, you probably want to use ADP numbers  and cross reference with your projections but I dont have enough info to do this yet. 

but the early expectation is that RB-RB is the way to go here.

(assuming of course that you trust the fftoday projections)

personally, when I draft in a serpentine draft, I typically take fftoday projections and adjust based on what I think is more realistic and then go through a process similar to this with my own draft planning.

That being said, this kind of analysis really can only be done in the first 2-3 rounds of a draft.  after that it gets too chaotic because people will go off the board more often as the draft progresses and higher ranked players will drop in the draft more often too.

it is naturally assumed that if a higher ranked WR or RB than those stated as the likely targets drops to you, it is a no brainer to take them.

I do hope this analysis helps you.

of course if you feel you dont like the fftoday projections, just substitute your own and use ADP's to determine who is likely available at that point in your draft.

 

good Luck.

I have been playing since 91.  for the past 15 years or so i have mocked my draft positions.  same concept... I am looking at who "should be available at my pick through X amount of rounds?" people have to assess the risk for themselves, but one is speculating performance. typically, when one drafts a qb high they end up deficient at either rb or wr, sometimes both.

I am in 2 dynasties, 1 keeper, and 2 redraft (FFPC).  for the redrafts i have #2 pick and #8. 4/5 leagues have te scoring at 1.5 ppr

 

For kicks i just did a mock from 12.  So generally speaking, I am liking my 1st 6-8 picks if i go jackson or mahomes 1st round... this was with me taking a wr at the turn with  the qb.  This did hurt the te position, which is an asset if you can get a top 5.  I still see more balanced risk waiting on qb.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

On 8/10/2020 at 12:05 PM, Bier Meister said:

Barkley: new qb, o-line is so-so, potential injury issues.... should have more rec than zeke (should offset the td differential), could be a young qb's best friend with check downs, explosive (can score from anywhere on the field.

 

Zeke: Mccarthy hasn't made good use of his rb's, more wr weapons... i believe he has a higher floor than barkley, but lower ceiling.  If dallas plays to their potential he could be running out the clock at the end of games. more consistent back.

 

Kamara: I think he rebounds and comes closer to his 18 numbers than 19.  he started off pretty well until injured.  his recs should give him a nice floor. brees loves passing to his rbs.

I am still liking kamara's high floor with his receptions.  now the tds are coming

@RaiderHaters Revenge

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,573]

13 hours ago, Bier Meister said:

I am still liking kamara's high floor with his receptions.  now the tds are coming

@RaiderHaters Revenge

I am focked bro, lol good thing I have depth in both leagues, went double down on Barkley

but one league went Barkley, Drake, Sanders, added Hunt and Robinson

other league went Barkley, Jones and added Hunt, Robinson, and Mckinnon

 

[weepaws 2,456]

I hope you took the safest pick, the Zeke. 

[tanatastic 2,061]

Wouldn’t take Zeke 2nd, would take him 1st with no hesitation.