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vuduchile

Have you been paying attention to the sports card market?

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5 hours ago, vuduchile said:

How'd you do man? Is your Pujols the one that went for $59K?

Yup. That’s about what I was expecting. I wasn’t expecting this though - https://goldinauctions.com/mobile/LotDetail.aspx?inventoryid=73162

I bought that card for $300 in 2006 right when the set came out.  God knows I’ve made some bad decisions in my life but targeting that big gangly lefty wasn’t one of them.  Saturday and Sunday nights were the most fun I’ve ever had sober. Very blessed.

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52 minutes ago, Patented Phil said:

Yup. That’s about what I was expecting. I wasn’t expecting this though - https://goldinauctions.com/mobile/LotDetail.aspx?inventoryid=73162

I bought that card for $300 in 2006 right when the set came out.  God knows I’ve made some bad decisions in my life but targeting that big gangly lefty wasn’t one of them.  Saturday and Sunday nights were the most fun I’ve ever had sober. Very blessed.

Awesome stuff...I know if I had these huge money modern cards if be selling them all and buying vintage if I wanted cards still.

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22 minutes ago, Patented Phil said:

I wonder about the future of vintage. Not a lot of people today care all that much about history. I do, but it seems like I’m a dying breed.

It’s starting to become popular again. The pandemic got a lot of peoples interest in it back up since they had nothing to do at home and wanted a fun hobby that can also be profitable 

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2 hours ago, Patented Phil said:

Yup. That’s about what I was expecting. I wasn’t expecting this though - https://goldinauctions.com/mobile/LotDetail.aspx?inventoryid=73162

I bought that card for $300 in 2006 right when the set came out.  God knows I’ve made some bad decisions in my life but targeting that big gangly lefty wasn’t one of them.  Saturday and Sunday nights were the most fun I’ve ever had sober. Very blessed.

That is Awesome man! Congrats!  

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1 hour ago, Patented Phil said:

I wonder about the future of vintage. Not a lot of people today care all that much about history. I do, but it seems like I’m a dying breed.

I think vintage will always be king in baseball.  Robinson, Mantle, Aaron, Mays, Williams and a few other icons are really moving up again after steady growth for years.  
 

We’re also seeing some movement in 90’s football.  Aikman, Sanders, Young and  few others.  
 

Basketball is the hardest to figure out.  Right now, it’s all about MJ, Kobe and Lebron.  
 

Current player prices have leveled off a bit, but new wax is at all time highs.  
 

NBA Hoops hobby boxes will hit the shelves on Wed at $475 per box.  This used to be Panini’s entry level product.  

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I have a Ted Williams autographed 8x10 picture. A Gale Sayers one too. Can't remember who gave them to me.

Probably worth $10 or something. :lol: Who knows?

And then I have a full set of the Certified Select Few '95 football cards. This is one of them. Whole set probably worth $11. Nice looking cards though. :thumbsup:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1995-Select-Certified-Select-Few-Dolphins-Football-Card-1-Dan-Marino-2250-/313106277048

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For those who didn’t see this in the crypto thread, there’s a relatively new digital product out there called nba topshot.  You can read about it in that crypto thread or google it.  
 

Anyway, I was able to buy one single pack of digital nba moments today for $14.  There were 5 moments in the pack.  Below is what has happened since I opened the pack this morning. 
 

Update 2:  The $85 moment just sold. -  Deni Avdija 3 pointer.  That was a quick 6X return on the $14 pack.  

Update 3: The $250 moment just sold. - Derrick Jones Jr blocking a Lebron James layup attempt.

 

 Paid $14 for the pack, sold 2 items from the pack for $335 in about 10 hours. 
 

That’s a 24X return.  That’s just stupid.  
 

I don’t know if this will really catch on, but I’m definitely going to stay engaged for a bit.  
 

 

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More insight on NBA topshot:

Yesterday's total sales on the platform were $1.6M.  Average daily sales on the platform for the past 2 weeks are over $1M. That's a lot of volume for something this new.  

And the new grading company start up HGA only takes 1000 submissions per week at $35 per card.  This week's submissions were sold out in 2 hours.  At that pace, they'll hit $2M in sales in their first year.  

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On 8/18/2020 at 12:02 PM, vuduchile said:

I don’t collect but my sons do. We buy and sell cards to make money.  They’re also helping run that biz. 
 

Consider this:  

Last year I had Mahomes in a $150 H to H league.  I was really high on Mahomes and still am.   The rest of that team was wiped out by injuries so I missed the playoffs.  $150 down the drain    Better luck next year  

As the playoff picture unfolded, We bought  some Mahomes, Jimmy G and Lamar Jackson rookie cards.  All in about $500 plus $150 to have some graded. 

We rooted for Mahomes throughout the playoffs just as if he was on our fantasy team.  Card prices rise and fall now based on current performance, so we did real well on Mahomes.  
 

Jimmy and Lamar prices dipped when they were eliminated but we held until just recently when we sold off most of the Lamar and Jimmy for $2K  
 

Current value of those Mahomes cards is over $6K   

 

Current value of those same Mahomes rookie cards is now over $20K.  

We've also bought several lower tier (Score & Prestige) rookie cards and had them graded since I posted this in Aug.  

Also, we passed on Brady rookie cards during the summer at $1500 each.  They're now going for over $25K each.  Massive Fale!

Go Chiefs. 

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27 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

Current value of those same Mahomes rookie cards is now over $20K.  

 

Not to me. 

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On 2/1/2021 at 8:17 PM, Djgb13 said:

It’s starting to become popular again. The pandemic got a lot of peoples interest in it back up since they had nothing to do at home and wanted a fun hobby that can also be profitable 

I am finding that in shark teeth.  People that collect want to make money.  I give them like 15% off retail to buy in bulk so they can resell.  I am surprised they do it but the do.  People are bored and have money.  When the next $1200 welfare check comes out demand on collectibles will go up even more. 

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A friend of a friend came into the shop on Saturday to talk to us about grading his 86 Fleer complete set, MJ included.   He also has 87 and 88 Fleer complete sets.  
 

We advised him to fly out to Newport Beach and walk them into PSA, but he was worried about covering the upfront cost of having them graded.  
 

So, I put him touch with Ken Goldin and they’re working a deal.  
 

He’s getting ready to build a house, so this is going to cover a decent chunk of the cost.  
 

So much hinges on the MJ grade.  It looks like an 8 to me.   

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ebay is the world's largest platform for selling cards on the secondary market.  There's no official report for primary market sales at hobby shops, online retailers, case breakers and big boxes, but it's safe to assume these numbers would translate.  

Below are some numbers from 2020:

https://hypebeast.com/2021/2/ebay-trading-card-report-142-percent-increase-in-sales-news

Sports Trading Cards Growth
Soccer +1586%
Basketball +373%
Hockey +258%
Football +168%
Baseball +73%

Most Popular Trading Card Categories
1. Pokémon (Pokémon trading card sales increased 574% from 2019 to 2020)
2. Basketball
3. Baseball
4. Magic The Gathering
5. Football

Top 5 Most Popular Player Trading Cards
1. Michael Jordan
2. Kobe Bryant
3. LeBron James
4. Zion Williamson
5. Mike Trout

Top Four Most Popular Pokémon Trading Cards
1. Charizard
2. Pikachu
3. Mewtwo
4. Blastoise

Top Five Most Popular Magic: The Gathering Trading Cards
1. Force of Will
2. Thoughtseize
3. Swords to Plowshares
4. Snapcaster Mage
5. Tarmogoyf

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What is going on with Football 2020 Optic Autos?  The prices are sky high.  Is it because they JUST hit ebay.  Those need to come way down in price to compare to past Optic Autos and become less than 2020 Contenders Autos.  I won't be adding any Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert Autos to my collection for a few years in hopes prices drop, otherwise probably never.  I did pick up a Phoenix Blue #/35 Justin Herbert RC for just $220.  Those are way underpriced.  His Prizm Light Blue that I want also sells for more than I'm willing to pay.  I have Optic Previews of Herbert and Burrow and Optic Holo Preview of Burrow so that will have to be enough.

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49 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

What is going on with Football 2020 Optic Autos?  The prices are sky high.  Is it because they JUST hit ebay.  Those need to come way down in price to compare to past Optic Autos and become less than 2020 Contenders Autos.  I won't be adding any Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert Autos to my collection for a few years in hopes prices drop, otherwise probably never.  I did pick up a Phoenix Blue #/35 Justin Herbert RC for just $220.  Those are way underpriced.  His Prizm Light Blue that I want also sells for more than I'm willing to pay.  I have Optic Previews of Herbert and Burrow and Optic Holo Preview of Burrow so that will have to be enough.

FOMO at it’s finest.  The first of those cards are just now being seen and sold. Prices will drop.   I’d say give it 90 days or so.  
 

 

 

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9 hours ago, vuduchile said:

ebay is the world's largest platform for selling cards on the secondary market.  There's no official report for primary market sales at hobby shops, online retailers, case breakers and big boxes, but it's safe to assume these numbers would translate.  

Below are some numbers from 2020:

https://hypebeast.com/2021/2/ebay-trading-card-report-142-percent-increase-in-sales-news

Sports Trading Cards Growth
Soccer +1586%
Basketball +373%
Hockey +258%
Football +168%
Baseball +73%

Most Popular Trading Card Categories
1. Pokémon (Pokémon trading card sales increased 574% from 2019 to 2020)
2. Basketball
3. Baseball
4. Magic The Gathering
5. Football

Top 5 Most Popular Player Trading Cards
1. Michael Jordan
2. Kobe Bryant
3. LeBron James
4. Zion Williamson
5. Mike Trout

Top Four Most Popular Pokémon Trading Cards
1. Charizard
2. Pikachu
3. Mewtwo
4. Blastoise

Top Five Most Popular Magic: The Gathering Trading Cards
1. Force of Will
2. Thoughtseize
3. Swords to Plowshares
4. Snapcaster Mage
5. Tarmogoyf

200-600% growth.  Seems sustainable

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7 hours ago, TimHauck said:

200-600% growth.  Seems sustainable

Anybody who doesn't think there is a bubble is crazy... Doesn't mean ya can't make a ton of money in the meantime

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2 hours ago, bandrus1 said:

Anybody who doesn't think there is a bubble is crazy... Doesn't mean ya can't make a ton of money in the meantime

Yeah.  Pretty sure my baseball cards are worthless.  Need to check to see if I still have any Pokémon cards, didn’t realize people were buying those again 

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11 hours ago, TimHauck said:

200-600% growth.  Seems sustainable

 

4 hours ago, bandrus1 said:

Anybody who doesn't think there is a bubble is crazy... Doesn't mean ya can't make a ton of money in the meantime

Who's saying that kind of growth is sustainable?  That's not even remotely realistic. 

IMO, this is the tail end of a 3-year run up.  We're expecting a 15-20% increase over 2020, which would be an excellent performance.  YTD we're +287%,  but it's very early and we expect that to level off when we get to May-Sept.

I never thought card shop sales would surpass sales at our flooring store, but here we are.  Yesterday, we started construction to add another 300 sf of space for the card shop. But it's important to note that we wouldn't have opened the card shop or expanded so quickly if we didn't already have the retail space to re-purpose.  

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On 12/19/2020 at 11:10 AM, vuduchile said:

Call it what you want.  IMO, sports gambling is not a bubble, and that's all this is.  

You did say this earlier (although at least also admitted that "much" of it wasn't sustainable)

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27 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

You did say this earlier (although at least also admitted that "much" of it wasn't sustainable)

I'm not sure what you're getting at here.  Sports gambling has always been big business and the gambling aspect that's now built into sports cards capitalizes on that. 

To be clear, I believe both sports gambling and the sports card industry (mostly new wax) will continue to thrive.  I  DO NOT think either category is a bubble that will pop. 

I DO NOT believe either category will grow by 200-600% every year.  That's not realistic. Double digit increases year over year for the next 3 years would be an amazing performance. 

I DO believe prices of certain single cards will fluctuate wildly and many will become worthless.  Injuries, bad teams, bad coaches, arrests, and political affiliations can all effect a player's prices.  Are Luka Doncic cards a bubble?  Possibly.  Prices have dropped dramatically since the season began and the Mavs are losing.  He may never become the generational player that many people thought he would.  Meanwhile, Embid, Jokic, and Mitchell cards are seeing an uptick based on their performance.  That's the gambling/fantasy connection at work, and lots of people are playing that game.  That doesn't appear to be slowing down. 

How exactly are you defining "bubble"?  

 

 

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52 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

I'm not sure what you're getting at here.  Sports gambling has always been big business and the gambling aspect that's now built into sports cards capitalizes on that. 

To be clear, I believe both sports gambling and the sports card industry (mostly new wax) will continue to thrive.  I  DO NOT think either category is a bubble that will pop. 

I DO NOT believe either category will grow by 200-600% every year.  That's not realistic. Double digit increases year over year for the next 3 years would be an amazing performance. 

I DO believe prices of certain single cards will fluctuate wildly and many will become worthless.  Injuries, bad teams, bad coaches, arrests, and political affiliations can all effect a player's prices.  Are Luka Doncic cards a bubble?  Possibly.  Prices have dropped dramatically since the season began and the Mavs are losing.  He may never become the generational player that many people thought he would.  Meanwhile, Embid, Jokic, and Mitchell cards are seeing an uptick based on their performance.  That's the gambling/fantasy connection at work, and lots of people are playing that game.  That doesn't appear to be slowing down. 

How exactly are you defining "bubble"?  

 

 

I think bubble means that prices are due to decline.   So earlier you said "this is the tail end of a 3-year run up" and were expecting a"15-20% increase this year"...Do you expect a decline in 2022?

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1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

I think bubble means that prices are due to decline.   So earlier you said "this is the tail end of a 3-year run up" and were expecting a"15-20% increase this year"...Do you expect a decline in 2022?

it wont be a cliff... people will not sell of at huge losses... a slow steady decline that will take a few years

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12 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I think bubble means that prices are due to decline.   So earlier you said "this is the tail end of a 3-year run up" and were expecting a"15-20% increase this year"...Do you expect a decline in 2022?

I'd need to understand the strength of the rookie classes,  what in-store traffic will be post COVID vaccines, and the overall economic outlook before I can forecast that. 

Please remember that my business is retail, not investing. This is an important distinction. Generally, when the economy is decent, 5-10% growth year over year for any retail operation is solid. If we average somewhere in that range for the next 5, I'd be more than pleased. 

As a retailer, we don't buy cards to hold long term (there are exceptions).  We buy new product, and selected singles we know we can profit on right now.  We also buy raw cards, invest money in grading them, then sell them when they come back.  

Lastly, the numbers above don't mean the value of all Soccer cards has increased 1500% in the past year.  It means that total sales Soccer cards on ebay have increased 1500%.  Many soccer cards have decreased in value during that same time period. 

 

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36 minutes ago, bandrus1 said:

it wont be a cliff... people will not sell of at huge losses... a slow steady decline that will take a few years

What cards are you predicting will decline?  I don't believe your Jackie Robinson card will decline within the next few years, and I don't think you do either. 

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2 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

What cards are you predicting will decline?  I don't believe your Jackie Robinson card will decline within the next few years, and I don't think you do either. 

Nope

 

But I dont believe base rookie cards will continue to sell for crazy amounts and I think color base cards will loose value over time. I dont think an topps update jusn soto rookie base card will be worth hundreds of dollars

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Just now, bandrus1 said:

Nope

 

But I dont believe base rookie cards will continue to sell for crazy amounts and I think color base cards will loose value over time.

You're talking modern, younger players I assume?

 

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I'm thinking of selling (most of these are autograph RCs (Contenders Premium and Optic Holo Autos)): 

2019: 4 Cam Reddish, 4 Kevin Porter Jr, 4 Eric Paschall, 1 Kendrick Nunn, 1 Tyler Herro, 2 Sekou

2018: 3 Devontae Graham, 4 Marvin Bagley

2017: 1 Lonzo Ball, 1 Kyle Kuzma, 1 Markelle Fultz

 

And Holding (several of these are Autograph RCs (Contenders Premium, and Optic) and Prizm color of the best players and Optic Holos):
2019: 9 Ja, 11 Zion, 6 Keldon Johnson, 5 Sekou, 5 RJ Barrett, 4 Rui, 5 Coby White, 4 De'Andre Hunter

2018: 8 Luka, 5 Trae, 4 Sexton, 3 Michael Porter Jr., 3 Shai, 3 Jaren Jackson, 3 DeAndre Ayton

2017: 5 Tatum, 5 Donovan Mitchell, 3 Bam, 3 John Collins, 3 DeAaron Fox, 1 Lauri Markennen

2016: 2 Ben Simmons, 3 Jaylen Brown, 4 Siakam, 3 Brandon Ingram,  3 Jamal Murray

2015: 2 Devin Booker, 2 Jokic, 2 Karl Anthony Towns, 2 Porzingis, 1 De'Angelo Russell, 

2014: 3 Embiid, 3 Zach Lavine, 2 Julius Randle, 1 Wiggins

2013: 5 Giannis, 3 Rudy Gobert, 3 CJ McCollum, 3 Victor Oladipo

2012: 3 Anthony Davis, 3 Kawhi Leonard, 4 Kyrie Irving, 2 Klay Thompson, 3 Jimmy Butler, 3 Kemba Walker, 2 Bradley Beal, 2 Draymond, 2 Middleton, 1 Vucevic, 2 Tobias Harris

 

Selling Football (Autograph RCs): 

1 Taysom Hill, 1 Jarrett Stidham, 1 of 2 Jared Goff, 1 of 2 Daniel Jones, 1 of 2 Drew Lock, 2 Gardner Minshew

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20 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

I'm thinking of selling (most of these are autograph RCs (Contenders Premium and Optic Holo Autos)): 

2019: 4 Cam Reddish, 4 Kevin Porter Jr, 4 Eric Paschall, 1 Kendrick Nunn, 1 Tyler Herro, 2 Sekou

2018: 3 Devontae Graham, 4 Marvin Bagley

2017: 1 Lonzo Ball, 1 Kyle Kuzma, 1 Markelle Fultz

 

And Holding (several of these are Autograph RCs (Contenders Premium, and Optic) and Prizm color of the best players and Optic Holos):
2019: 9 Ja, 11 Zion, 6 Keldon Johnson, 5 Sekou, 5 RJ Barrett, 4 Rui, 5 Coby White, 4 De'Andre Hunter

2018: 8 Luka, 5 Trae, 4 Sexton, 3 Michael Porter Jr., 3 Shai, 3 Jaren Jackson, 3 DeAndre Ayton

2017: 5 Tatum, 5 Donovan Mitchell, 3 Bam, 3 John Collins, 3 DeAaron Fox, 1 Lauri Markennen

2016: 2 Ben Simmons, 3 Jaylen Brown, 4 Siakam, 3 Brandon Ingram,  3 Jamal Murray

2015: 2 Devin Booker, 2 Jokic, 2 Karl Anthony Towns, 2 Porzingis, 1 De'Angelo Russell, 

2014: 3 Embiid, 3 Zach Lavine, 2 Julius Randle, 1 Wiggins

2013: 5 Giannis, 3 Rudy Gobert, 3 CJ McCollum, 3 Victor Oladipo

2012: 3 Anthony Davis, 3 Kawhi Leonard, 4 Kyrie Irving, 2 Klay Thompson, 3 Jimmy Butler, 3 Kemba Walker, 2 Bradley Beal, 2 Draymond, 2 Middleton, 1 Vucevic, 2 Tobias Harris

 

Selling Football (Autograph RCs): 

1 Taysom Hill, 1 Jarrett Stidham, 1 of 2 Jared Goff, 1 of 2 Daniel Jones, 1 of 2 Drew Lock, 2 Gardner Minshew

where the baseball!

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6 minutes ago, bandrus1 said:

where the baseball!

Sold off all the newer baseball in 2016 to get a new Jeep Grand Cherokee.  I have all HOF RCs and guaranteed HOF RCs in baseball graded already.  Mike Trout is the newest, then Clayton Kershaw, then pretty much every other baseball card I have is retired HOF RCs (1960s, 70s, 80s, 90s, and 2000s) and HOF non-RCs for the players from the 1950s.  I'm set with baseball cards, no risk because I realized long ago the new stuff was way too volatile, a lot of what I had were prospect Bowman Chrome Autographs.

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