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vuduchile

Have you been paying attention to the sports card market?

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It's still on fire.  Has been for the past 2 years.  There are many parallels between fantasy sports and the card market.  They're becoming more pronounced as new money continues to pour into the card market. 

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I got a pack for my son and we opened it, when did they shift away from not having every day players.  He got 2 Fernando Tatis and a Ronald Acuna in one pack, then I realized pretty much everyone was an upper echelon player or rated rookie type

 

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Can’t say that I have. My brother has. Ever since he retired, he’s been hitting the sports card market pretty hard. He’s been doing a lot of those unopened box auctions (I think they are called something else but not sure). He’s been having fun with that and evidently has found a few rare cards in them 

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What’s the deal with that ? I heard it has been on fire but haven’t heard why . What’s driving the market ?

i haven’t collected in 20+ years but still have my collection 

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I have two buddies all in to it.  I just can't at age 44.  One of them has a youtube thing with tons of followers where him and his 10 year old kid open packs. 

I do still have every card from my youth though.  Every Topps complete set from 1982 to 1993 plus all sorts of stuff.  87' Fleer Jordan for one.  My favorite was an autographed Barry Bonds rookie, he signed it for me, not bought.   Then steroids happened.  :(

My brother was the comic book kid, I was the baseball card.  Good Times.  

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19 minutes ago, KSB2424 said:

My brother was the comic book kid, I was the baseball card.  Good Times.  

I was both and a few years ago I gave the comics to the boys to sell on eBay. They had fun doing it and they kept the money. Made a few hundred each. 
Only thing I kept was The Dark Knight graphic novel - set of four. 

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16 hours ago, Djgb13 said:

Can’t say that I have. My brother has. Ever since he retired, he’s been hitting the sports card market pretty hard. He’s been doing a lot of those unopened box auctions (I think they are called something else but not sure). He’s been having fun with that and evidently has found a few rare cards in them 

Box breaks maybe?  You pay $X and pick your team.  The breaker opens the box or boxes and you get all the cards from that team.  That's straight up gambling and it's a huge business right now.  

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12 hours ago, Mike Isles said:

What’s the deal with that ? I heard it has been on fire but haven’t heard why . What’s driving the market ?

i haven’t collected in 20+ years but still have my collection 

Several things are driving it.  

The popularity of basketball worldwide.

The excitement surrounding the last 2 draft classes in the 3 major sports

"Investing" in modern day cards is another form of sports gambling, but with less risk.  

There are several ways to gamble on cards.  Opening packs/boxes is a bit like scratch offs.  Box breaks (see above) is another way.  There are a couple other gambling games going on with cards in FB groups and it goes on 24/7.

More people are discovering that it's a more lucrative alternative to fantasy sports. 

Some say there's institutional money pouring into it.  I don't know about that one, but I keep hearing it. 

Sneaker flippers have moved into cards since it's much harder to get the shoes now. 

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So are you saying that my 3 Topps Mike Schmidt RCs have increased significantly since he cried on his HOF induction and destroyed the price?

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I have always thought that the issue with collecting was that nobody buys.  You can value a card at whatever, but its only worth what someone will pay you for it.

Has the liquidity of the market changed that much?

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17 hours ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

I got a pack for my son and we opened it, when did they shift away from not having every day players.  He got 2 Fernando Tatis and a Ronald Acuna in one pack, then I realized pretty much everyone was an upper echelon player or rated rookie type

 

Which year and set did you buy? If you somehow  got a Tatis or Acuna flagship rookie card, you scored big.  

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8 minutes ago, patweisers44 said:

I have always thought that the issue with collecting was that nobody buys.  You can value a card at whatever, but its only worth what someone will pay you for it.

Has the liquidity of the market changed that much?

Yes. 
That has been a big shift, especially with modern cards.  Ebay is the main selling platform but there are others.  

Go to eBay SOLD listings and type in Tatis Jr. rookie psa 10 or Juan Soto rookie psa 10.   You’ll see how many have sold recently.  

Or, search eBay sold listings for 2020 Panini Mosaic Blaster box.  Check prices and sales.  These were $19.99 in March when they hit Wal Mart and Target.  They’re going for $140 now plus people are selling box breaks of them left and right.  
 

 

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28 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

Which year and set did you buy? If you somehow  got a Tatis or Acuna flagship rookie card, you scored big.  

I couldnt even tell you honestly, it was just a pack sitting there at the checkout

 

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13 hours ago, KSB2424 said:

I have two buddies all in to it.  I just can't at age 44.  One of them has a youtube thing with tons of followers where him and his 10 year old kid open packs. 

I do still have every card from my youth though.  Every Topps complete set from 1982 to 1993 plus all sorts of stuff.  87' Fleer Jordan for one.  My favorite was an autographed Barry Bonds rookie, he signed it for me, not bought.   Then steroids happened.  :(

My brother was the comic book kid, I was the baseball card.  Good Times.  

I don’t collect but my sons do. We buy and sell cards to make money.  They’re also helping run that biz. 
 

Consider this:  

Last year I had Mahomes in a $150 H to H league.  I was really high on Mahomes and still am.   The rest of that team was wiped out by injuries so I missed the playoffs.  $150 down the drain    Better luck next year  

As the playoff picture unfolded, We bought  some Mahomes, Jimmy G and Lamar Jackson rookie cards.  All in about $500 plus $150 to have some graded. 

We rooted for Mahomes throughout the playoffs just as if he was on our fantasy team.  Card prices rise and fall now based on current performance, so we did real well on Mahomes.  
 

Jimmy and Lamar prices dipped when they were eliminated but we held until just recently when we sold off most of the Lamar and Jimmy for $2K  
 

Current value of those Mahomes cards is over $6K   

 

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58 minutes ago, lod001 said:

How are my George Brett and Robin Yount RCs doing? 

Go to ebay sold listings to find out. 

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59 minutes ago, lod001 said:

So are you saying that my 3 Topps Mike Schmidt RCs have increased significantly since he cried on his HOF induction and destroyed the price?

No not at all

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Forget about the collecting angle here.  It’s sorta gay unless you’re a kid.  
 

If you play FF or place prop bets or futures bets,  consider moving some of that money to cards.  
 

They’re easy to buy and sell, and even if a player has an off year or gets injured, the value won’t go to zero.  
 

 

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22 hours ago, vuduchile said:

It's still on fire.  Has been for the past 2 years.  There are many parallels between fantasy sports and the card market.  They're becoming more pronounced as new money continues to pour into the card market. 

A friend of mine who's a collectibles dealer, said that the only cards that have value are at least 50 years old.  I showed him cards that I found and that a friend found, that were from the 70's and 80's.  He said there's a few that are probably worth a few dollars, maybe even $100, but they're not old enough to have true value.  I have a Mike Schmidt rookie card (1973 card), he said he'd buy it for $50 because we're friends.  He said that because it isn't in mint condition, it won't sell for a good chunk of change for another 30 years, and that's if it's encased now.  If cards aren't in mint condition, they have no real value.

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2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

A friend of mine who's a collectibles dealer, said that the only cards that have value are at least 50 years old.  I showed him cards that I found and that a friend found, that were from the 70's and 80's.  He said there's a few that are probably worth a few dollars, maybe even $100, but they're not old enough to have true value.  I have a Mike Schmidt rookie card (1973 card), he said he'd buy it for $50 because we're friends.  He said that because it isn't in mint condition, it won't sell for a good chunk of change for another 30 years, and that's if it's encased now.  If cards aren't in mint condition, they have no real value.

Sorry to break this to you, but your friend is an idiot. 

Tatis and Soto rookie psa 10’s are going for $300   Mike Trout flagship rookie is going for $3K.   Luka Doncic rookie psa 10 is going for $2K   None of these cards are 50 years old   

 

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3 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

Sorry to break this to you, but your friend is an idiot. 

Tatis and Soto rookie psa 10’s are going for $300   Mike Trout flagship rookie is going for $3K.   Luka Doncic rookie psa 10 is going for $2K   None of these cards are 50 years old   

 

That's a bubble. Awesome if you can make $ at it but you don't want to be the bagholder when it pops.

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3 minutes ago, lod001 said:

That's a bubble. Awesome if you can make $ at it but you don't want to be the bagholder when it pops.

There are many who believe that.   Much of what I’m seeing now does not seem sustainable.   But the same people have been saying that for 2 years +. 

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3 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

Sorry to break this to you, but your friend is an idiot. 

Tatis and Soto rookie psa 10’s are going for $300   Mike Trout flagship rookie is going for $3K.   Luka Doncic rookie psa 10 is going for $2K   None of these cards are 50 years old   

 

Maybe you're right, I don't follow the industry.  I just know that I called a dealer and told him I had a 1973 Mike Schmidt rookie card is good condition.  He told me to stop by his place.  He saw it, and offered me $25 for it.  He said it wasn't old enough nor in mint condition.  Kinda proved my friend right.  He did say though, that a cards value is the value to which someone is willing to pay.  He told me that if I find someone who'll give me $1000, for it, to sell it because it's not worth that.  Now, the Tatis and Soto cards may be going for $300, etc... but maybe they're the idiots for paying that because they'll never get the return on investment.

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2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Maybe you're right, I don't follow the industry.  I just know that I called a dealer and told him I had a 1973 Mike Schmidt rookie card is good condition.  He told me to stop by his place.  He saw it, and offered me $25 for it.  He said it wasn't old enough nor in mint condition.  Kinda proved my friend right.  He did say though, that a cards value is the value to which someone is willing to pay.  He told me that if I find someone who'll give me $1000, for it, to sell it because it's not worth that.  Now, the Tatis and Soto cards may be going for $300, etc... but maybe they're the idiots for paying that because they'll never get the return on investment.

Man, if i could sell my schmidt, brett and yount cards for $1000 each, i'd do it in a heartbeat.

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1 minute ago, lod001 said:

Man, if i could sell my schmidt, brett and yount cards for $1000 each, i'd do it in a heartbeat.

Yup.

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6 minutes ago, lod001 said:

I see the trout RC available for up to $1,500,000 on Ebay. 🤣

A sealed case of 86 Fleer basketball cards sold for $1.8M.  Those were .10/pack back on 86.  
 

 A Lebron Rookie card recently sold for $1.8M. 

A Trout rookie went for $900K last year.  
 

Same guy bought a Trout rookie for $400K.  He’s got in up for auction now and he’ll likely get close to $2M.  It’s at $1.5 now
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/ron-kantowski/vegas-dave-plans-to-flip-rare-baseball-card-for-millions-2094938/amp/

Of course this guy also bought a sh!tload of Derrick Carr rookies a few months ago.  Personally, I’m not loving that move.  

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22 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Maybe you're right, I don't follow the industry.  I just know that I called a dealer and told him I had a 1973 Mike Schmidt rookie card is good condition.  He told me to stop by his place.  He saw it, and offered me $25 for it.  He said it wasn't old enough nor in mint condition.  Kinda proved my friend right.  He did say though, that a cards value is the value to which someone is willing to pay.  He told me that if I find someone who'll give me $1000, for it, to sell it because it's not worth that.  Now, the Tatis and Soto cards may be going for $300, etc... but maybe they're the idiots for paying that because they'll never get the return on investment.

That’s just not a card that’s real valuable in raw form.  
 

This is the Mike Schmidt card to own. 
 

https://rover.ebay.com/rover/0/0/0?mpre=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ebay.com%2Fulk%2Fitm%2F283776505520

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7 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

That’s just not a card that’s real valuable in raw form.  
 

This is the Mike Schmidt card to own. 
 

https://rover.ebay.com/rover/0/0/0?mpre=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ebay.com%2Fulk%2Fitm%2F283776505520

Ok so there are idiots out there willing to pay $15000 for a Schmidt RC. Mine have sat in their holder for over 35 years. Even so, I doubt it grades like that card. 

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20 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Ok so there are idiots out there willing to pay $15000 for a Schmidt RC. Mine have sat in their holder for over 35 years. Even so, I doubt it grades like that card. 

Who do you guys use to grade cards and for those of us like you that have had our cards on cases for decades I wonder if they are permanently damaged?

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25 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Ok so there are idiots out there willing to pay $15000 for a Schmidt RC. Mine have sat in their holder for over 35 years. Even so, I doubt it grades like that card. 

If you have this exact card in this listing and it’s well centered, with sharp corners and edges, get it graded.  
 

If you have a different card, with soft corners and it looks like it’s been cut by a 2st grader, then you’re SOL.  
 

Beyond that, get off the Schmidt kick.  He’s not even in the top 100 collectible players.  If you want post war vintage, go with Mantle, Mays and Aaron.  
 

But my OP is really about what’s happening with modern cards and how the market is behaving a lot like a fantasy league.  

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2 hours ago, vuduchile said:

Box breaks maybe?  You pay $X and pick your team.  The breaker opens the box or boxes and you get all the cards from that team.  That's straight up gambling and it's a huge business right now.  

Yea something like that. He explained it a few weeks ago. But that sounds about right. He loves doing though and what he’s all about right now 

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57 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

That’s just not a card that’s real valuable in raw form.  
 

This is the Mike Schmidt card to own. 
 

https://rover.ebay.com/rover/0/0/0?mpre=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ebay.com%2Fulk%2Fitm%2F283776505520

... and that card is from 1973, so it's 47 years old.  To be fair, 47 years and 50 years isn't really all that much of a gap, is it?

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1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

... and that card is from 1973, so it's 47 years old.  To be fair, 47 years and 50 years isn't really all that much of a gap, is it?

I never said there weren’t valuable cards that are 50 years old.  There are lots of them.  
 

What I said is that there are many cards from this year, last year, or 10 years ago that are going for thousands and in some cases, millions.  
 

Current player cards have never been hotter   

 

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1 minute ago, vuduchile said:

I never said there weren’t valuable cards that are 50 years old.  There are lots of them.  
 

What I said is that there are many cards from this year, last year, or 10 years ago that are going for thousands and in some cases, millions.  
 

Current player cards have never been hotter   

 

Sure, but going back, you said my friend was an idiot.  To that, I said, how do you know my friend is the idiot and not the person paying a lot of money for the cards of today?  What if Tatis or Acuna have a hole in their game and teams find it out at some point this year or next, and they turn out to be nothing more than flash in the pan players?  The money that people paid for them is a huge loss.  People paying a ton of money for an unknown outcome are gambling.  They're also destined to never get the return on value.  To me, that's an idiot.

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9 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Sure, but going back, you said my friend was an idiot.  To that, I said, how do you know my friend is the idiot and not the person paying a lot of money for the cards of today?  What if Tatis or Acuna have a hole in their game and teams find it out at some point this year or next, and they turn out to be nothing more than flash in the pan players?  The money that people paid for them is a huge loss.  People paying a ton of money for an unknown outcome are gambling.  They're also destined to never get the return on value.  To me, that's an idiot.

Of course it’s gambling.  And putting money into vintage cards is much safer.  Mantle cards, for example, will likely never dip in price.    His history has already been written, signed, sealed and delivered to Cooperstown.  
 

Any current player could suffer a career ending injury, get figured out, or just end up as a flash in the pan.   But certain cards have recently sky-rocketed in value and continue to rise based on performance on the field or court.  

 

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidseideman/2019/01/18/trading-cards-continue-to-trounce-the-sp-500-as-alternative-investments/#69ebcbcd2f6e

“Trading cards are easily the most liquid of all tangible asset markets and this factor is continuing to drive attention towards them, especially among new wealth,” Huigens told me.

Meanwhile, cards have held their own during recent market volatility and economic anxiety. As the chart shows, the same held true during the Great Recession. (The noticeable dip two years ago resulted from a market correction following a perceived bubble.)

People have a deeper emotional connection to a Derek Jeter than they do to Amazon shares, Huigens adds.

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2 hours ago, vuduchile said:

I never said there weren’t valuable cards that are 50 years old.  There are lots of them.  
 

What I said is that there are many cards from this year, last year, or 10 years ago that are going for thousands and in some cases, millions.  
 

Current player cards have never been hotter   

 

Which is the definition of a bubble. It's a game of hot potato and last one stuck with the card that they paid 1000x it's worth, is the bagholder.

if you are raking in $ on this that's awesome but it's not going to end well for some. 

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4 hours ago, lod001 said:

Which is the definition of a bubble. It's a game of hot potato and last one stuck with the card that they paid 1000x it's worth, is the bagholder.

if you are raking in $ on this that's awesome but it's not going to end well for some. 

Each player is really it’s own market though.  So, the Luka bubble could crash and if that’s all you had, you’d be screwed.  

But the market for Luka cards has no impact on Mike Trout cards.  

The market for modern cards in general moves on performance and speculation of performance.  It can be volatile, but it’s a lot like fantasy sports. 

Fantasy players are figuring out how to leverage their research, projections and knowledge of the sport to make money in the card market.  

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