Axe Elf Breaks the Seal

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

Doesn’t answer the question, bad skill or luck? 

Maybe because that wasn't the question you axed, pops.

Bad skill is an uncontrolled variable in this experiment; I can only answer for good skill.

[weepaws 2,456]

52 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Maybe because that wasn't the question you axed, pops.

Bad skill is an uncontrolled variable in this experiment; I can only answer for good skill.

So your team is 2-6 based on your good skill.  

Thanks. 

[AxeElf 787]

4 minutes ago, weepaws said:

So your team is 2-6 based on your good skill.

Alzheimer's Moment #3 (since I started counting today)

The 2 part, anyway.

Maybe review the thread from the beginning if you're having trouble remembering?

[justforbeer 39]

On 10/18/2020 at 2:43 AM, AxeElf said:

 

It's not that I didn't think of that, but being stuck with the fake Mike Thomas kind of limited my roster flexibility, and at the time that Herbert was drafted for $3, my max bid was $3, so I couldn't have won him if I had tried.

Hindsight is 20/20, but I'd probly be 3-2 right now if I'd been able to land Herbert--so in a way, the fake Mike Thomas stunt might have cost me two wins, and possibly a playoff berth.

Butterfly effect...

I think this is the a epitome of your presence in this forum. You think you’re smarter than everybody else but actually you’re not.

Your average at ff, and that’s being nice.

Also, this post is like lofting up a softball for me to bomb it into the stands. It’s just too easy.

[AxeElf 787]

So with Raheem Mostert still on IR, Robert Woods and my Rams Defense on bye--and with no Defenses available on the wire--I figured Week 9 would be the week I would finally have to surrender my hopes of finishing above .500 in this wacky league in this wacky season.  I  was projected to lose 83-70.

But as wacky as this season may be, there's always a little Axe Elf magic to be considered.  My RB choices, aside from Ronald Jones, were Nyheim Hines, coming off his 20 point performance, Peyton Barber and Jordan Howard.  I started Howard, and gained 3.1 fantasy points over the more obvious Hines.

Greg Ward was also on a bye, so after inserting Mike Williams for Robert Woods, I was left with Corey Davis, who has scored a TD in each of his last two games, or Larry Fitzgerald for flex options.  Just out of curiosity, I took a look at the waiver wire and was amazed to see KJ Hamler there.  After my post about Hamler in the "Week 9 Scoop and Start WR" thread, I figured I'd put my money where my mouth was.  I picked up Hamler and flexed him, gaining 12 fantasy points over the more obvious Davis and his goose egg.

But then Thielen posted 4.8 points and Jones 3.3, so I figured even another good week by Drew Lock (if only he had been healthy all season!) wouldn't save me.  And yet, my opponent posted only 62 points, despite fielding Josh Jacobs and Christian Kirk, so I won by 16 points--and would have won by 1 point even if I had started Hines and Davis!

The Axe Elf magic was just overkill this time--but hey, total points...

3-6 baby; four more wins to the playoffs... (?)

[weepaws 2,456]

3-6, good skill. 

[AxeElf 787]

36 minutes ago, weepaws said:

3-6, good skill. 

You know it.

(Alzheimer's Moment #1 for today, but I'll act as if we haven't already had this lesson three times.  shhh...  lol)

[nobody 2,037]

Starting KJ Hamler over Corey Davis was a nice move.

[AxeElf 787]

56 minutes ago, nobody said:

Starting KJ Hamler over Corey Davis was a nice move.

Yeah, finding an effective "Scoop and Start" as a free agent in a 20-team league is a coup.

It just would have been a better story if it had provided the margin of victory.

Guess I shouldn't complain about being too good for a good move to be a good story.

[nobody 2,037]

1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

Guess I shouldn't complain about being too good for a good move to be a good story.

 

[nobody 2,037]

I would've started Hines thinking that Baltimore would force the Colts to throw, and I would've started Corey Davis.

[AxeElf 787]

16 minutes ago, nobody said:

I would've started Hines thinking that Baltimore would force the Colts to throw, and I would've started Corey Davis.

Most people not named Axe Elf probly would have.

This time, it didn't matter--but it's a shining example of the kind of FF acumen that triumphs over dumb luck.

[TimHauck 1,799]

I just realized Jordan Howard has 4 TD's and is averaging 1.2 YPC.   In fact Sunday was his first game over 1.0 YPC (1.9).   What's the record for most TD's in a season by someone averaging less than 1.5 YPC?

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, TimHauck said:

I just realized Jordan Howard has 4 TD's and is averaging 1.2 YPC.   In fact Sunday was his first game over 1.0 YPC (1.9).   What's the record for most TD's in a season by someone averaging less than 1.5 YPC?

I dunno, but 1 TD for every 7 carries is pretty remarkable, too.

[Kopy 489]

I'd assume all he'd have to do is just fall down and he'd gain a yard 

 

[AxeElf 787]

Just now, Kopy said:

I'd assume all he'd have to do is just fall down and he'd gain a yard 

Not if you're stood up and pushed backwards... (see David Montgomery).

[Kopy 489]

Touche

 

 

[justforbeer 39]

17 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Most people not named Axe Elf probably would have.

This time, it didn't matter--but it's a shining example of the kind of FF acumen that triumphs over dumb luck.

As I point to the stands and target one over the fence.....

Axe throws the pitch and......

Most people not named Axe Elf probably would not have drafted this team and thought it was the greatest thing eva!  Except you.

lol

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, justforbeer said:

Most people not named Axe Elf probably would not have drafted this team and thought it was the greatest thing eva!  Except you.

You are correct; good eye!

That is part of the reason I started this thread--to assist those currently wallowing helplessly in ignorance and confusion learn how to assemble the greatest 20-man team eva!

Of course, being 2020 with all the injuries and shifting byes and illnesses and what have you, we won't get to see it go undefeated as it might have in any other year, but it's still informative for future seasons that will hopefully follow a more traditional trajectory.  The elements of strategy and player evaluation learned here will benefit my students for years to come.

[justforbeer 39]

On 11/10/2020 at 4:27 PM, AxeElf said:

You are correct; good eye!

That is part of the reason I started this thread--to assist those currently wallowing helplessly in ignorance and confusion learn how to assemble the greatest 20-man team eva!

Of course, being 2020 with all the injuries and shifting byes and illnesses and what have you, we won't get to see it go undefeated as it might have in any other year, but it's still informative for future seasons that will hopefully follow a more traditional trajectory.  The elements of strategy and player evaluation learned here will benefit my students for years to come.

Ha....too funny.

 

To blame your success, or lack there of on injuries shouldn’t be just to your team.

The team that had Barkley and McCaffrey also had Jefferson, Claypool, Boyd and others that would have made their team a force if they didn’t have the injuries. 

Many times, the great teams are made by who they draft in late rounds and not who their first three Picks were.

 

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, justforbeer said:

The team that had Barkley and McCaffrey also had Jefferson, Claypool, Boyd and others that would have made their team a force if they didn’t have the injuries.

Maybe... if he hadn't traded Claypool for Malcolm Brown on September 29.  Claypool might have won him one game (if he happened to be starting him that week), but I wouldn't say he's been much of a "force" other than that.  Jefferson's had 2 monster games, 1 acceptable game, and every other game has been in single digits--so he's basically Nyheim Hines; again, not really a league-winner.

1 hour ago, justforbeer said:

Many times, the great teams are made by who they draft in late rounds and not who their first three Picks were.

This was an auction, not a traditional draft, so the concept of "late rounds" is a little different--but MOST times, the draft is largely irrelevant anyway.  Leagues are won and lost through team management (and in 2020, through avoiding as many random COVID-related scratches and schedule changes as possible).

Axe Elf has illustrated this principle by drafting the 2nd-place team in a high-stakes tournament league after drafting Greg Zeurlein in the 1st round and the Bears Defense in the 2nd round in 2019, and by coming 7 points from winning a 10-team league in 2012 in which Axe Elf drafted all his players from the free agents left over after the other 9 teams had drafted.

That said, of course team management becomes a lot easier when you draft productive players and avoid injuries.

[rallo 132]

On 11/9/2020 at 9:03 PM, AxeElf said:

Yeah, finding an effective "Scoop and Start" as a free agent in a 20-team league is a coup.

It just would have been a better story if it had provided the margin of victory.

Guess I shouldn't complain about being too good for a good move to be a good story.

Was Richie James available? Also, nice move starting Hamler over Davis!

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, rallo said:

Was Richie James available? Also, nice move starting Hamler over Davis!

He was...  He was picked up on a $2 waiver yesterday, so he would have been an option in Week 9.

But even Axe Elf isn't brave enough to start a WR5 in his first active game on a run-first team with a backup QB against one of the top teams in the NFL and expect 9/184/1.  Fortunately, I didn't even need Hamler...

I'm back to Davis for tonight (and with Woods back from his bye, I'm flexing Davis over Mike Williams)--because Humphries is out, and Davis is playing to honor his older brother, who just died from cancer this week.  I'm looking for a nice 10/150/2 tribute line.

[AxeElf 787]

5 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I'm back to Davis for tonight (and with Woods back from his bye, I'm flexing Davis over Mike Williams)--because Humphries is out, and Davis is playing to honor his older brother, who just died from cancer this week.  I'm looking for a nice 10/150/2 tribute line.

Well, that didn't pan out for Davis, but at least he approached double digits in this half-PPR scoring.  But with Mostert still sidelined, Nyheim Hines put in work for me again, and between the two, I've got a 35-11 lead going into the weekend (my opponent started Tannehill).

He also has Tyreek Hill on a bye, but his WRs are still no joke for a league of this size--Cooper Kupp, Robby Anderson and John Brown.  If those guys don't go crazy, Zach Moss, Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper don't scare me too much.  It should be an epic battle between my Robert Woods and his Cooper Kupp to see which WR takes the greater advantage against what is by far the most permissive pass defense in the NFL (by some 50 yards per game over #2 and some 75 yards per game over #3).

Can Axe Elf inch one victory closer to the most improbable postseason run ever?

Original projection:  L 85-91

Current projection:  W 103-82

Stay tuned...

[huskyhater75 242]

On 11/9/2020 at 5:24 PM, weepaws said:

3-6, good skill. 

Axe is pathetic, isn't he?

[huskyhater75 242]

12 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Well, that didn't pan out for Davis, but at least he approached double digits in this half-PPR scoring.  But with Mostert still sidelined, Nyheim Hines put in work for me again, and between the two, I've got a 35-11 lead going into the weekend (my opponent started Tannehill).

He also has Tyreek Hill on a bye, but his WRs are still no joke for a league of this size--Cooper Kupp, Robby Anderson and John Brown.  If those guys don't go crazy, Zach Moss, Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper don't scare me too much.  It should be an epic battle between my Robert Woods and his Cooper Kupp to see which WR takes the greater advantage against what is by far the most permissive pass defense in the NFL (by some 50 yards per game over #2 and some 75 yards per game over #3).

Can Axe Elf inch one victory closer to the most improbable postseason run ever?

Original projection:  L 85-91

Current projection:  W 103-82

Stay tuned...

Even you have sunk to a new level-quoting your own post to spew more of your dense, rookie-level "knowledge" out to us. But I guess nobody else was gonna answer you any more and I will give you credit for realizing that. Now run along junior................................

[AxeElf 787]

On 11/12/2020 at 10:42 PM, AxeElf said:

Well, that didn't pan out for Davis, but at least he approached double digits in this half-PPR scoring.  But with Mostert still sidelined, Nyheim Hines put in work for me again, and between the two, I've got a 35-11 lead going into the weekend (my opponent started Tannehill).

He also has Tyreek Hill on a bye, but his WRs are still no joke for a league of this size--Cooper Kupp, Robby Anderson and John Brown.  If those guys don't go crazy, Zach Moss, Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper don't scare me too much.  It should be an epic battle between my Robert Woods and his Cooper Kupp to see which WR takes the greater advantage against what is by far the most permissive pass defense in the NFL (by some 50 yards per game over #2 and some 75 yards per game over #3).

Can Axe Elf inch one victory closer to the most improbable postseason run ever?

Original projection:  L 85-91

Current projection:  W 103-82

Stay tuned...

Well, just about everyone on my team sucked, except the Rams' D, which got me 12, and my RBs, Jones and Hines, who put up a Fittyburger between them.  Fortunately, my opponent's whole team to this point has barely cracked a Fittyburger, and I'm up by 44, so unless Gus Edwards outscores Adam Thielen by 44 points, I'm one step closer to glory.

Three to go...

Next up, the disastrous 20th place, 1-9 Quaranteam, averaging 67 points per week.

[nobody 2,037]

Woot

[nobody 2,037]

How we looking?  I assume Thielen and Mike Williams have you close enough for RoJo, Woods, and Rams D to finish this thing off pretty easily if you aren't already ahead, eh?

[AxeElf 787]

42 minutes ago, nobody said:

How we looking?  I assume Thielen and Mike Williams have you close enough for RoJo, Woods, and Rams D to finish this thing off pretty easily of you aren't already ahead, eh?

Yeah, probly coasting to another hundoburger while my opponent may not crack 50.

Currently 74-41; he has Fournette and I have Rojo, Woods and the Rams D.

Might as well have been a bye.

Next week will be the test...

[AxeElf 787]

This is really getting kind of exciting.

I am currently in 11th place at 5-6, with 8 teams making the playoffs.  Four of the top 10 teams I can't catch--two have 8 wins, and two of the teams with 7 wins are the two highest-scoring teams in the league, so I'll never catch them on total points.  That leaves 6 teams that I CAN catch--and I HAVE to catch 3 of them to make the playoffs.

That will require me to win out, and I face the hapless drafter of Barkley and McCaffrey (currently in 18th place at 4-7, with the fourth-fewest points scored) in Week 13--basically a bye into a winning season and a potential playoff berth if I win this week...

...and that won't be easy.

My opponent is one of the four teams I can't catch, the 7-4 owner of the second-highest scoring team in the league, averaging 96.15 points per game on the season.  My team is averaging 88.46 points per game on the season...

BUT that's including all the weeks I had zero QBs.  Over the last four weeks with a healthy Drew Lock, my team has averaged 102.51 points per week...

BUT his players must all have good matchups or something, because he's projected to score 106.62 this week.

So I'm going to need all hands on deck.

Parenthetically, if I just had the average healthy score for Drew Lock and the average healthy score for Raheem Mostert in every week this season that they were NOT healthy (even though that would cost me a few points in the weeks Hines went off in Mostert's place)--I would currently have the best record in the league at 9-2, with the most points scored in the league (by 3.59 points) and a 97.80 weekly scoring average.  So I drafted the team that would dominate this league; it was just hindered by untimely injuries.  But I digress...

As I was saying, I'm going to need Mostert back this week, and for him to have one of those long-TD Mostert performances.  I'm gonna need Thielen to get rid of the cooties and for him and Woods and Williams to do an encore of last week's 80-point combo effort--or should I flex Corey Davis, or Hamler, or Fitzgerald... or Hines??  I'm gonna need Ronald Jones to have the "on" week for which he is due, and Ebron to get a TD.  And I'm gonna need Drew Lock to do something like 250/2/1.  And I'm gonna need pretty much all of these things to happen in concert, or my season will end under .500.

For me, the playoffs start this week.

And for my opponent, the game starts today, with D'Andre Swift and TJ Hockenson currently starting for him in Thanksgiving games--at least his Golladay is officially ruled out.

On Sunday, he has Aaron Rodgers, but against the Bears.  I have Mike Williams, he has Keenan Allen.  I have Ronald Jones, he has Chris Godwin.  I have Nyheim Hines (if Mostert is out), he has Jonathan Taylor. He's currently flexing Giovani Bernard, but if Bernard stays iffy, I might end up seeing either Fulgham or Hollywood Brown flexed off of his bench.

It's gonna be a heavyweight fight, for a 20 team league.  Will this be the next chapter in one of the greatest comebacks in fantasy football history (from 1-6 after Week 7), or will this just be the nail in a coffin that should have slammed shut long ago?

Strap in...

[weepaws 2,456]

So 40% of the teams make the playoffs, Sounds like a rookie league. 

Hey good luck   

 

Happy Thanksgiving. 

[nobody 2,037]

6 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Parenthetically, if I just had the average healthy score for Drew Lock and the average healthy score for Raheem Mostert in every week this season that they were NOT healthy (even though that would cost me a few points in the weeks Hines went off in Mostert's place)--I would currently have the best record in the league at 9-2, with the most points scored in the league (by 3.59 points) and a 97.80 weekly scoring average.  So I drafted the team that would dominate this league; it was just hindered by untimely injuries.  But I digress...

Did you account for all your opponent's untimely injuries?

[nobody 2,037]

So we're looking like

Rodgers, Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Keenan, Godwin, Gio, and Hockenson with Hollywood and Fulgham on standby

Versus

Drew Lock, potentially Mostert, RoJo, Thielen, Mike Williams, and then one of Corey Davis, Hines, Hamler, or Larry Fitzgerald.

Should be pretty close.

[AxeElf 787]

27 minutes ago, nobody said:

Rodgers, Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Keenan, Godwin, Gio, and Hockenson with Hollywood and Fulgham on standby

Yeah, Swift and Golladay out, nice...  BUT he's also got the Cleveland D, if he wasn't already loaded enough--and there haven't been any Ds available all season, so he drafted them, he didn't just pick up the Browns this week because they had the best matchup in history.  Fulgham is currently in for Swift, so he's only got Hockenson going today.

35 minutes ago, nobody said:

Drew Lock, potentially Mostert, RoJo, Thielen, Mike Williams, and then one of Corey Davis, Hines, Hamler, or Larry Fitzgerald.

Sort of.  Ideally Mostert and Rojo at RB; Hines would be next up if Mostert is out.  I'm probly not flexing Hines if Mostert plays.

You forgot Robert Woods at WR, he and Thielen are my rocks--if Thielen can get off the COOTIE list.  Williams would probably be my first choice to flex, but if he has to sub for Thielen, then it's Davis or Hamler, with Fitz looking like he's out this week for some reason.

You also forgot Ebron at TE and the Rams D.

41 minutes ago, nobody said:

Should be pretty close.

That's my only hope.

[AxeElf 787]

56 minutes ago, nobody said:

Did you account for all your opponent's untimely injuries?

Not all of them, but then, most positional injuries can simply be replaced by the next player up.  I believe I am the only team to have drafted two legitimate, starting QBs who were both out of commission by Week 2, with the only crappy backup I could snag out after 1 play of Week 4 or something, and no other options available until Week 7.  If other teams were out of QBs, it was either because they only drafted 1 QB and he got hurt, or they weren't able to draft any legitimate QBs to begin with.  The only team you could really legitimately say was damaged by injuries as much as my 2 QBs going down after 1 week was the team that drafted Barkley and McCaffrey.  It would have been fun to see how he fared against me if we both had stayed healthy.

So wah wah, everyone has injuries, sure, but even if I just had 8 points at the QB position in 2 weeks where I had none I would be 7-4 right now and almost guaranteed a playoff spot, even with a loss this week--and even if you don't count Mostert sitting on my bench for all but 4 weeks.  The quirks of scheduling probably also affected me more than my opponents' untimely injuries--like if Kenyan Drake's last-second garbage time TD goes 49 yards instead of 69 yards in Week 6--or doesn't happen at all--that's another big win for the Elf.

So it's 2020, I get it, but when you look past the 2020 filter, Axe Elf still drafts to dominate.

[nobody 2,037]

One thing I don't like about a 20 team league setup is you only play 13 of a possible 19 opponents in the regular season, so teams that don't have to play the better teams are at an advantage.

[AxeElf 787]

Just now, nobody said:

One thing I don't like about a 20 team league setup is you only play 13 of a possible 19 opponents in the regular season, so teams that don't have to play the better teams are at an advantage.

Yeah, although it's still pretty random--you're not likely to play all 8 playoff teams for instance--you'll play 4 or 5 playoff teams, 2 or 3 cellar teams, and then half the season against mid-level competition, for the most part.  It's just do you play against the guy who has Hines or Byrd in their lineup when they happen to go off--like I was facing Kenyan Drake that week--those are the quirks of scheduling that affect you the most.

[AxeElf 787]

7 hours ago, weepaws said:

So 40% of the teams make the playoffs, Sounds like a rookie league. 

I ALMOST know better than to engage with your brain-dead babbling, but through what twisted logic is the experience level of a league tied to the number of teams that make the playoffs, especially such a generic percentage as 40%?

How many teams do you think make the playoffs in virtually every 10-team league in the world, three?  How about 12-team leagues?  40% of 12 is 4.8, or 5.  Most 12-team leagues eschew the 5-team playoff format and have either a 4-team or 6-team playoff.  So that's like 80% of the fantasy leagues on the planet that adhere to this "rookie" format of 40% of the teams making the playoffs.

God you are such a forking moron, and I virtually never attack people, only ideas.  But you are just such an absolute failure as a rational being that I have nothing but personal contempt for your careless squandering of whatever IQ points the creator tried to stuff into your pin-sized cranium.  And to earn such personal vitriol from Axe Elf takes almost superhuman levels of willful ignorance.

Congratulations, you made the short list.

Have a terrible Thanksgiving, I never appreciate you, and I hope your family contracts salmonella from the turkey, which gets recorded as 10 new COVID-related cases on Trump's watch.

Ptooie.

[AxeElf 787]

So the favorite comes out punching and lands a solid cross to my jaw when Hockenson, averaging 44.1 yards per game for the season, squirts out of the gate like a watermelon seed, posting 3 for 78 in the first QUARTER!!!

I was staggered, but I didn't go down, as Hockenson managed only 2 more catches for 11 more yards over the remainder of the game, finishing just 1.3 points over his projection.  Apparently swapping out Swift for Fulgham lowered my opponent's overall projected scoring though, because he was previously expected to get 106 fantasy points, now just 104.6 with Hockenson in the clubhouse.

So I'll call Round 1 a draw on the basis of surviving the opening salvo from Hockenson; though it was definitely a win having Swift and Golladay on his bench.