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riversco

The Black Vote - turning republican? And what does it mean?

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Here's a story.  One key aspect of the 1960 election where Kennedy beat Nixon was that the Irish were a democrat voting bloc.  And, per the conventional wisdom at the time, with Kennedy now elected as president, the Irish could be counted on as a guaranteed democrat vote for a generation.  The republicans would never get the white house back.  But something funny happened along the way.  The republicans made a huge push to turn the Irish vote.  The republicans promoted Irish Americans to prominence like William F. Buckley Jr and Ronald Reagan.  Amazingly, by 1981, when Reagan took office, the Irish were voting republican.

Now, many people have speculated as to why the black vote stays so staunchly democrat for generations.  It has frustrated the GOP for so long.  Some thought that, maybe if Colin Powell won the presidency as a republican, he might turn the black vote.  Powell never ran.  But Obama did and won.  And like the 1960 election, the election of Obama was seemingly going to secure the black vote for the democrats forever.  But that hold may finally be weakening after the 2020 GOP National Convention that featured Trump making a strong play for the black vote with numerous republican black speakers.  It seemed an obvious ploy, and something the media would criticize Trump for.  But new polling shows Trump has dramatically increased his standing among blacks.  Maybe its temporary, but maybe blacks saw 8 years of Obama and now these riots and have decided nothing has changed, and with Trump making strong overtures, maybe they finally are listening to new ideas.

But what would that actually mean in terms of an election?

Take New York state.  Hillary won the state by 1.7 million votes.  I did a rough back of the envelope calculation and determined that New York state has 19.5 million people, about 3.4 million are black, and about 2 million of those blacks vote.  Trump won around 8% of the black vote in 2016.  So if Trump were to split the black vote 50-50 in New York state, he actually stands a chance of turning it red.  Currently the poll we saw has 29% of blacks approving of Trump, which is high, but not nearly enough to win New York.  But its a start.  Maybe in 10 years, if that number can hit 50%, the map looks shockingly different and some of these blue states are seriously in play like we've never seen.

It has happened before with the Irish.

 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/trumps-approval-rating-among-black-voters-jumps-nearly-60-during-gop-convention

Trump's approval rating among black voters jumps nine points during GOP convention: Poll
by Carly Ortiz-Lytle,
August 30, 2020 11:37 AM

President Trump’s approval rating from black and Hispanic voters rose amid the Republican National Convention.

Twenty-four percent of registered black voters approve of the job Trump is doing, a rise of 9 percentage points from a poll taken earlier in August, a Hill-HarrisX poll found.

The poll also showed positive movement for the president’s approval rating among Hispanic voters, 32% of whom approve of the job Trump is doing as president, a rise of 2 percentage points.

In 2016, the president won 8% of the black vote and 29% of the Hispanic vote. Trump also won 49% of the suburban vote to Hillary Clinton’s 45%. However, the 2018 midterm elections told a different story, with Democrats flipping suburban House seats.

The Hill-HarrisX poll surveyed 2,861 people from around the United States between Aug. 22-25 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.83 percentage points.

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13 minutes ago, riversco said:

Take New York state.  Hillary won the state by 1.7 million votes.  I did a rough back of the envelope calculation and determined that New York state has 19.5 million people, about 3.4 million are black, and about 2 million of those blacks vote.  Trump won around 8% of the black vote in 2016.  So if Trump were do split the black vote 50-50 in New York state, he actually stands a chance of turning it red.  Currently the poll we saw has 29% of blacks approving of Trump, which is high, but not nearly enough to win New York.  But its a start.  Maybe in 10 years, if that number can hit 50%, the map looks shockingly differently and some of these blue states are seriously in play like we've never seen.

 

There is no in 10 years with Trump.  He is a nationalist who has hijacked the Republican party, but that's an anomaly.  Who, after he is gone, will carry the mantle?  The Republican party pre-Trump is just as bad as the Dems, imo.  In a perfect world, Trump wins reelection in a landslide then spends the next 4 years laying the foundation for the MAGA party.  Blacks aren't stupid.  I think they trust Trump a bit more than most before him but once he's gone they know what we know, it's gonna be the same old same old.  

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8 minutes ago, riversco said:

Let's do some easy math and assume the poll is accurate.  Trump got 44% approval in the poll or 44 out of 100

32% of the poll was Republican, with an 82% approval rating. Thats = 26.2/100 of the Trump approval.

The remaining 18/100 of Trump approval came from non-Republicans.

Now lets say the country is 42% Republican and 58% other, and based on the last election the "other" is 5% right wing. 

So 82% of 47% is 38.5 voters, and 18% of 53% is 9.54 voters = 48% of the vote.  Hillary won the popular vote in 2016 with 48%

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This is a pipe dream akin to democrats thinking texas is a battle ground state.

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He's pulling more than 8. Way more black advocates this run with sizeable platforms. I think he hits 12-15% which is more than enough to win barring voter ballot fraud. 

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17 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

This is a pipe dream akin to democrats thinking texas is a battle ground state.

Trump winning NY? Yes, it’s a dream. But NY flipping a few seats in Congress? Likely. 

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24 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Now lets say the country is 42% Republican and 58% other, and based on the last election the "other" is 5% right wing. 

 My math tells me that 42 + 58 = 100.  Are you doing some edjr OPS math here?  Where's "the 'other' is 5%" coming from?

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Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

 My math tells me that 42 + 58 = 100.  Are you doing some edjr OPS math here?  Where's "the 'other' is 5%" coming from?

Trump got roughly 47% of the vote last time, 5% is a very conservative estimate of what he gets from the remainder.

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4 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Trump winning NY? Yes, it’s a dream. But NY flipping a few seats in Congress? Likely. 

I think mainland NY should split from NYC.

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5 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think mainland NY should split from NYC.

I think we just need to go back to our former city/state model. Let the city do what they want, leave the rest of us alone. It worked for a long time, until Cuomo came along and spread the cities nonsense everywhere. 

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19 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Trump got roughly 47% of the vote last time, 5% is a very conservative estimate of what he gets from the remainder.

I gotchya... it's coming out of the 58.  :thumbsup:

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12 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I think we just need to go back to our former city/state model. Let the city do what they want, leave the rest of us alone. It worked for a long time, until Cuomo came along and spread the cities nonsense everywhere. 

That could be the simplest and reasonable solution.  It's just that when you look at the election map, most of the state leans red, but it's controlled by NYC's strong blue population.  Basically, 40% is controlling the other 60%.  If I were a prominent Republican politician, I'd look to move in that direction.  NY has 29 EV's.  If mainland and NYC split, mainland would have about 17 EV's and NYC would have about 12.

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Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

I gotchya... it's coming out of the 58.  :thumbsup:

The poll is roughly divided into equal parts republican, democrat and independent.  I don't give it much credence on it's face, but it could yield interesting data.  44% approval rating, while only 32% polled were Republican is startling.

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I was in  "Trump" store in Fargo, ND yesterday.

There were 6 people in the store.

3 black women.  One had a Make American Great Again hat in her hand, one had a pink flag that said "Women for Trump" 
3 white men.


I just find that interesting. 

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10 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That could be the simplest and reasonable solution.  It's just that when you look at the election map, most of the state leans red, but it's controlled by NYC's strong blue population.  Basically, 40% is controlling the other 60%.  If I were a prominent Republican politician, I'd look to move in that direction.  NY has 29 EV's.  If mainland and NYC split, mainland would have about 17 EV's and NYC would have about 12.

The sad truth is the rest of the state needs the economic benefits of NYC. Western NY still hasn’t recovered from the 2008 economic crisis. That part of the state benefits the least from NYC. The rest of  the state , for the most part, does. Downstate and Long Island is directly tied to NYC economically. 

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6 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

The sad truth is the rest of the state needs the economic benefits of NYC. Western NY still hasn’t recovered from the 2008 economic crisis. That part of the state benefits the least from NYC. The rest of  the state , for the most part, does. Downstate and Long Island is directly tied to NYC economically. 

Gotchya.  Info I did not have, thanks.  

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7 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

The sad truth is the rest of the state needs the economic benefits of NYC. Western NY still hasn’t recovered from the 2008 economic crisis. That part of the state benefits the least from NYC. The rest of  the state , for the most part, does. Downstate and Long Island is directly tied to NYC economically. 

Same with every state and the country.  90% of the land area votes red.  Why do you think the left keeps a tight leash on making sure no minority is capable of getting a foothold outside of a city. 

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18 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

The poll is roughly divided into equal parts republican, democrat and independent.  I don't give it much credence on it's face, but it could yield interesting data.  44% approval rating, while only 32% polled were Republican is startling.

 

10 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

I was in  "Trump" store in Fargo, ND yesterday.

There were 6 people in the store.

3 black women.  One had a Make American Great Again hat in her hand, one had a pink flag that said "Women for Trump" 
3 white men.


I just find that interesting. 

These two are examples where I find it humorous about the lefty talking points.  We've heard them say at the DNC that people like Kasich are distancing themselves from the Republican party and Trump.  All white people.  Though, the people leaving the Democrat party are black.

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1 hour ago, Cdub100 said:

This is a pipe dream akin to democrats thinking texas is a battle ground state.

Imagine if they put this much effort into the base instead of focusing on people that'll never vote for you

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5 hours ago, fandandy said:

There is no in 10 years with Trump.  He is a nationalist who has hijacked the Republican party, but that's an anomaly.  Who, after he is gone, will carry the mantle?  The Republican party pre-Trump is just as bad as the Dems, imo.  In a perfect world, Trump wins reelection in a landslide then spends the next 4 years laying the foundation for the MAGA party.  Blacks aren't stupid.  I think they trust Trump a bit more than most before him but once he's gone they know what we know, it's gonna be the same old same old.  

On nationalism: Human society goes thru globalist phases and nationalist phases.  The most recent globalist phase terminated with the election of Trump.  Globalism is rapidly dying around the world.  People pushing globalist ideas are falling way behind the curve.  Trump was ahead of the curve.

On the black vote: These sorts of things are not so much about "who carries the mantle" but "who breaks the fever".  Trump might actually break the spell the democrats have on the black vote.  If he does, its gone forever and they stop being a democrat voting bloc.  It just ends.  If the GOP wants to win New York and other deep blue states, some GOP nominee needs to break that fever.  It puts the whole map in play.  This might be the moment.

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21 minutes ago, riversco said:

On nationalism: Human society goes thru globalist phases and nationalist phases.  The most recent globalist phase terminated with the election of Trump.  Globalism is rapidly dying around the world.  People pushing globalist ideas are falling way behind the curve.  Trump was ahead of the curve.

On the black vote: These sorts of things are not so much about "who carries the mantle" but "who breaks the fever".  Trump might actually break the spell the democrats have on the black vote.  If he does, its gone forever and they stop being a democrat voting bloc.  It just ends.  If the GOP wants to win New York and other deep blue states, some GOP nominee needs to break that fever.  It puts the whole map in play.  This might be the moment.

I agree that Trump has a better chance of doing that than anyone the Republicans can put up I'm just skeptical that his brand of the GOP will be long enough lasting to see the changes you talked about in the OP.  

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38 minutes ago, riversco said:

On nationalism: Human society goes thru globalist phases and nationalist phases.  The most recent globalist phase terminated with the election of Trump.  Globalism is rapidly dying around the world.  People pushing globalist ideas are falling way behind the curve.  Trump was ahead of the curve.

On the black vote: These sorts of things are not so much about "who carries the mantle" but "who breaks the fever".  Trump might actually break the spell the democrats have on the black vote.  If he does, its gone forever and they stop being a democrat voting bloc.  It just ends.  If the GOP wants to win New York and other deep blue states, some GOP nominee needs to break that fever.  It puts the whole map in play.  This might be the moment.

It’s not that long ago that NY had a republican governor win re-election, 20 years of a republican mayor in NYC, and one Republican Senator. There were just as many Black people in NY then as there is now. Going a little further back, Reagan won NY both times he ran. How did that happen? NY was broke and crime ridden.  It’s on its way to both now.  

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31 minutes ago, fandandy said:

I agree that Trump has a better chance of doing that than anyone the Republicans can put up I'm just skeptical that his brand of the GOP will be long enough lasting to see the changes you talked about in the OP.  

I don't understand that line of thinking.  If Trump is a successful 2 term president, the next nominee is going to follow along his guidelines.

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26 minutes ago, riversco said:

I don't understand that line of thinking.  If Trump is a successful 2 term president, the next nominee is going to follow along his guidelines.

Will they? Look how many RINOs there are. If Pence Runs in 2024 do you think he is going to follow Trump? 

The person running in 2024 has to be someone very close to Trump like Trump Jr or Eric.

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12 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Will they? Look how many RINOs there are. If Pence Runs in 2024 do you think he is going to follow Trump? 

The person running in 2024 has to be someone very close to Trump like Trump Jr or Eric.

Platforms change.  10 years ago gay marriage wasn't accepted.  If Trump wins in 2020, a slew of elected republicans may adopt his views on issues like foreign wars, tariffs, etc.  It might convert a lot of Neocons into Jacksonian Nationalists.  That does happen.  It recently happened in the democratic party.

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45 minutes ago, riversco said:

Platforms change.  10 years ago gay marriage wasn't accepted.  If Trump wins in 2020, a slew of elected republicans may adopt his views on issues like foreign wars, tariffs, etc.  It might convert a lot of Neocons into Jacksonian Nationalists.  That does happen.  It recently happened in the democratic party.

They'll have to show me because I don't trust most of them

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Democrats have been pushing off away from blacks. They can't be trusted anymore to vote straight. Big push for illegal aliens, chain migration. Anyone that does not speak English well or hates America is the new black. Just plopp them down in red states anywhere and wait. Smoke conservatives out. Much easier than trying to pander to blacks every 4 years.  

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11 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 

These two are examples where I find it humorous about the lefty talking points.  We've heard them say at the DNC that people like Kasich are distancing themselves from the Republican party and Trump.  All white people.  Though, the people leaving the Democrat party are black.

 


I think part of it is, the ones leaving are trying to disassociate themselves with the the stereotype that is gaining traction every day. 
 

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When are you guys going to get it? I'm JWing

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4 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

When are you guys going to get it? I'm JWing

The hispanic vote is surprising. I would expect it to be 80/20 at best.

 

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Just now, DexterM1776 said:

The hispanic vote is surprising. I would expect it to be 80/20 at best.

 

White hispanics bring that number way up.

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3 minutes ago, riversco said:

White w/college degree is 53/33 in favor of Trump?  I'm not sure I believe this poll.

Polls don’t matter, have you ever been polled?  I don’t know anyone who has and I’ve never have.

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10 minutes ago, riversco said:

White w/college degree is 53/33 in favor of Trump?  I'm not sure I believe this poll.

But you believe the poll that says 20 plus percent of blacks will vote for Trump?

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1 minute ago, iam90sbaby said:

But you believe the poll that says 20 plus percent of blacks will vote for Trump?

I never said I believe 20% of blacks would vote Trump.  In fact I questioned the poll in the first post and said maybe its temporary.  But I felt it was definitely worth speculation since Trump dedicated the convention to winning black voters.

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3 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

But you believe the poll that says 20 plus percent of blacks will vote for Trump?

No, they always back down at the end. 15% is possible,  which is still devastating to the left.

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Just now, TimmySmith said:

No, they always back down at the end. 15% is possible,  which is still devastating to the left.

No it's not lmfao 

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3 minutes ago, riversco said:

But I felt it was definitely worth speculation since Trump dedicated the convention to winning black voters.

Waste of time

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