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The Black Vote - turning republican? And what does it mean?

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Nate and his staff do not like Trump without question. I recall 2016 he shutdown his site when it was evident Trump was going to win. He never displayed Trump as the winner. Funny part, he forgot to close the IM section. People were cursing him out, making death threats LOL. I stayed up for a couple hrs reading them. I should have screen captured some of them. Good stuff.

He took some time off and then went on news shows for damage control. It's a good site, lots of nice charts and and graphs. Data going in them is the problem. Never going to get good data because most of the polls are sampling the same people over and over and it's such a small percentage that respond. Something like .01% or something stupid. Most are getting tagged hang up, like damn near everyone. It's just a crap shoot. The polls don't mean anything. They even throw ones out they do not like or skew to far from the mean which is totally phucked up.  

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Up to 5 million new gun owners this year now. The FBI can’t keep up with the background checks. I don’t see even half of those people going for Biden. 

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6 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Up to 5 million new gun owners this year now. The FBI can’t keep up with the background checks. I don’t see even half of those people going for Biden. 

I'm guessing that 90% were going to vote for Trump anyway.

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15 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Up to 5 million new gun owners this year now. The FBI can’t keep up with the background checks. I don’t see even half of those people going for Biden. 

Don't underestimate the number of morons out there.  My dad is one of them.  Democrat until the day he dies, but was talking about buying an AR-15 a few weeks ago.

  • Haha 1

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Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm guessing that 90% were going to vote for Trump anyway.

Maybe, but who did they vote for last time.  5 million NEW is the size of a major city.  

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Just now, TimmySmith said:

Maybe, but who did they vote for last time.  5 million NEW is the size of a major city.  

Probably Trump.

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1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Up to 5 million new gun owners this year now. The FBI can’t keep up with the background checks. I don’t see even half of those people going for Biden. 

That is a good example of a metric Nate Silver and his team do not track. States with new regressive gun laws. If gun sales are soaring in those areas the people are wanting a change in leadership maybe?   

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4 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Probably Trump.

All it would have taken for Trump to win the pop vote last time was a switch of 1.5 million voters.  Most of Trumps peeps already had guns.  These are NEW.  There's 1.5 million in there somewhere. 

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1 minute ago, TimmySmith said:

All it would have taken for Trump to win the pop vote last time was a switch of 1.5 million voters.  Most of Trumps peeps already had guns.  These are NEW.  There's 1.5 million in there somewhere. 

I don't doubt that you could be right... I just don't think that you are.  I saw Trump as the popular vote winner last time.  I don't count Libtardifornia as a real state.  😂

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27 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm guessing that 90% were going to vote for Trump anyway.

500k votes then? Trump won by a combined total of 80k in the swing states. If 20 pct of that 500k are in swing states that’s 100k. More than he won by. It’s not a good metric for the left. 

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Florida has 1.2 million of those fbi background checks through August. 
Pennsylvania had almost 900k. 
Minnesota almost 700k. Wow

North Carolina 600k

Ohio 600k. 
Wisconsin 600k 

N.Y. by Comparison has almost 400k  . This is a swing state issue. 

Minnesota had 700k all of last year 

Florida had 1.2 million all of last year  

Pennsylvania 1.2 mill all of last year  

All swing states are up by significantly larger numbers than last year. 

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22 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

500k votes then? Trump won by a combined total of 80k in the swing states. If 20 pct of that 500k are in swing states that’s 100k. More than he won by. It’s not a good metric for the left. 

I don't disagree really.  Your initial post that I replied to, you stated you don't see half of them voting for Biden.  I agree.  My point was that I didn't think the vast majority were going to vote for him anyway... even if they never did buy a gun.  I'm willing to bet that about 4 to 4.5M of that 5M voted for Trump in 2016 and were going to vote for him again.  As for the rest, 500k to 1M, they may not vote for anyone.  I think in that group though, there were a good portion of Independents that were undecided and will likely vote for Trump in 2020.  I'd say around that 100k you mention here.  Possibly even more.

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5 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't disagree really.  Your initial post that I replied to, you stated you don't see half of them voting for Biden.  I agree.  My point was that I didn't think the vast majority were going to vote for him anyway... even if they never did buy a gun.  I'm willing to bet that about 4 to 4.5M of that 5M voted for Trump in 2016 and were going to vote for him again.  As for the rest, 500k to 1M, they may not vote for anyone.  I think in that group though, there were a good portion of Independents that were undecided and will likely vote for Trump in 2020.  I'd say around that 100k you mention here.  Possibly even more.

The last election was won on the micro, not the macro. I think this one will be as well. 10k votes in a swing state is huge.  I can’t see new purchasers of weapons, after doing  all the paperwork, paying all the money, waiting on the line at the store, voting for a guy who says he’s taking them away. 

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5 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Florida has 1.2 million of those fbi background checks through August. 
Pennsylvania had almost 900k. 
Minnesota almost 700k. Wow

North Carolina 600k

Ohio 600k. 
Wisconsin 600k 

N.Y. by Comparison has almost 400k  . This is a swing state issue. 

Minnesota had 700k all of last year 

Florida had 1.2 million all of last year  

Pennsylvania 1.2 mill all of last year  

All swing states are up by significantly larger numbers than last year. 

I can see this being more descriptive and positive for Trump.  Clinton only won MINN by like 40k votes.  If 700k are new gun owners, all it takes is 5% of them to switch sides to give Trump the win.  Yeah, I know, 35k is still less than 40k.  😁  But I'm already of the opinion that there is going to be a big Trump turnout from police and their families who are going to vote for Trump that may have voted Independent or for Clinton in 2016.

 

I don't think the states who voted for Trump in 2016 are going to flip, that's why I see Trump getting re-elected.  But I think if a state like Minnesota flips, the election is over.

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22 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I can see this being more descriptive and positive for Trump.  Clinton only won MINN by like 40k votes.  If 700k are new gun owners, all it takes is 5% of them to switch sides to give Trump the win.  Yeah, I know, 35k is still less than 40k.  😁  But I'm already of the opinion that there is going to be a big Trump turnout from police and their families who are going to vote for Trump that may have voted Independent or for Clinton in 2016.

 

I don't think the states who voted for Trump in 2016 are going to flip, that's why I see Trump getting re-elected.  But I think if a state like Minnesota flips, the election is over.

I’m not saying the NCIS checks are all for new gun owners. But logic would dictate that a significant portion are. 5 million spread across the US are new gun owners though.  

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I can see this being more descriptive and positive for Trump.  Clinton only won MINN by like 40k votes.  If 700k are new gun owners, all it takes is 5% of them to switch sides to give Trump the win.  Yeah, I know, 35k is still less than 40k.  😁  But I'm already of the opinion that there is going to be a big Trump turnout from police and their families who are going to vote for Trump that may have voted Independent or for Clinton in 2016.

 

I don't think the states who voted for Trump in 2016 are going to flip, that's why I see Trump getting re-elected.  But I think if a state like Minnesota flips, the election is over.

Winning Minn by 45K means Trump only has to flip 23K.  And that isn't considering the 113K votes the Libertarians got, which would probably lean Trump.  The Libertarian party may have cost Trump Minn, NH, Maine and Colorado.  Those states could flip without losing a single Democratic voter.

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3 hours ago, FlyinHeadlock said:

Nate and his staff do not like Trump without question. I recall 2016 he shutdown his site when it was evident Trump was going to win. He never displayed Trump as the winner. Funny part, he forgot to close the IM section. People were cursing him out, making death threats LOL. I stayed up for a couple hrs reading them. I should have screen captured some of them. Good stuff.

He took some time off and then went on news shows for damage control. It's a good site, lots of nice charts and and graphs. Data going in them is the problem. Never going to get good data because most of the polls are sampling the same people over and over and it's such a small percentage that respond. Something like .01% or something stupid. Most are getting tagged hang up, like damn near everyone. It's just a crap shoot. The polls don't mean anything. They even throw ones out they do not like or skew to far from the mean which is totally phucked up.  

The biggest miss was Wisconsin.  It was like +6 to+8 Hillary and Trump carried it.  If they miss on Wisconsin again, Trump is already re-elected.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html#!

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4 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Winning Minn by 45K means Trump only has to flip 23K.  And that isn't considering the 113K votes the Libertarians got, which would probably lean Trump.  The Libertarian party may have cost Trump Minn, NH, Maine and Colorado.  Those states could flip without losing a single Democratic voter.

Yeah, but I think turnout will be higher and the lack of Independents in this election is going to spread out those votes from 2016.  There were over a 250k votes cast for Independent candidates.  I'm just erring on the side of caution.  I'm assuming Biden gets at least as many votes in MN as Clinton.

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A lot of people probably didn't vote for Trump in 2016 but don't want to pass up the opportunity to vote for the greatest president of their lifetime in Trump in 2020.  Just to be able to tell their grandkids they voted for Trump.

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3 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, but I think turnout will be higher and the lack of Independents in this election is going to spread out those votes from 2016.  There were over a 250k votes cast for Independent candidates.  I'm just erring on the side of caution.  I'm assuming Biden gets at least as many votes in MN as Clinton.

I’m not so sure about a big turnout.  Not where it counts at least 

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2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, but I think turnout will be higher and the lack of Independents in this election is going to spread out those votes from 2016.  There were over a 250k votes cast for Independent candidates.  I'm just erring on the side of caution.  I'm assuming Biden gets at least as many votes in MN as Clinton.

BLM is a ruse to get black people excited about the election.  But they just don't show, ever, for a candidate that doesn't excite them.  Remember, libs are voting for their God.  Biden will not exceed Hillary's vote count and the black vote will not show up for him.

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4 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

BLM is a ruse to get black people excited about the election.  But they just don't show, ever, for a candidate that doesn't excite them.  Remember, libs are voting for their God.  Biden will not exceed Hillary's vote count and the black vote will not show up for him.

The general consensus is that if the Black vote doesn't turn out in huge numbers, the democrats can't win national elections.  They HAD to do something like BLM to have a shot.  And it may not work.  Blacks might start voting republican a little more every cycle now.

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11 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I’m not so sure about a big turnout.  Not where it counts at least 

When I say turnout, I'm talking about the 250k people who didn't vote for Clinton or Trump in 2016 that will now likely vote for either Biden or Trump.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, but I think turnout will be higher and the lack of Independents in this election is going to spread out those votes from 2016.  There were over a 250k votes cast for Independent candidates.  I'm just erring on the side of caution.  I'm assuming Biden gets at least as many votes in MN as Clinton.

I think the Trump haters and Harris lovers are the only people voting for Biden-Harris. There is no other reason to vote for Biden.

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18 minutes ago, Baker Boy said:

I think the Trump haters and Harris lovers are the only people voting for Biden-Harris. There is no other reason to vote for Biden.

Yeah, but that's a lot of people.  LOL

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Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, but that's a lot of people.  LOL

Is it? I think everyday more people are catching on to the deep state

 

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Just now, Baker Boy said:

Is it? I think everyday more people are catching on to the deep state

 

Yeah, I still see and talk to a lot of people like that every day.

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Being a black "conservative" means you spend a good amount of time critizing your own people (example Candace Owens).

That's the real reason conservatism is a lost cause for most blacks.  No one wants to criticize themselves.

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