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Fournette to Bucs

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5 minutes ago, Serenity Now said:

Of all the takes I've read and listened to, you seem to be the only one that believes Jones looked bad and Fournette was completely superior to him. 

I think they  both did not look good.  However, Fournette has an excuse and R Jones does not.  Fournette had the flash of one run and R Jones did not (the 11 yarder to end the game was nothing special) and Jones had 3x the number of opportunities.  So I think based on this game the needle is pointing up for Fournette and down for R Jones.  Fournette will get more involved and Jones will be losing carries.  Still not sure who will get the goal line work but yahoo thought that was going to Fournette.  I wouldn't play either yet, which hurts with the juicy Carolina up next.

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40 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I don't understand your confidence that Jones will still get the lions share of 1st and 2nd down touches.  Jones did not look good with them yesterday, they seemed like wasted downs.  In my eyes Jones did nothing yesterday to indicate he had locked down that role.

And yes, when the Bucs have some winning game scripts the RBs should have more carries.  But not all carries are equal and the expected ypc should be adjusted.  For instance, if the team is up 3 scores with 4 minutes to go, giving the ball to the RB would have a reduced expected ypc because the D is expecting it and a big part of the value is the half minute off the clock.  Conversely, when behind multiple  scores and you get a carry on the last play you could expect a nice gain - pretty meaningless though.  To then state something like "3.9 ypc which isn't too shabby" seems like a disingenous attempt to convince yourself that he had a decent day.  I don't see it that way.   Jones grip on the lead back status seems very much in jeopardy. 

Jones is a pretty solid RB when the ball is in his hands.  Period.  That's where my confidence is in him in getting the lions share of 1st and 2nd down touches.  I think the OLine had a horrible day and I think Leftwich's play called left a LOT to be desired, that's why I think the 3.9 ypc was pretty good.  Jones also converted on all 3 attempts on 3rd and short rushes, to get the first down.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Jones is a pretty solid RB when the ball is in his hands.  Period.  That's where my confidence is in him in getting the lions share of 1st and 2nd down touches.  I think the OLine had a horrible day and I think Leftwich's play called left a LOT to be desired, that's why I think the 3.9 ypc was pretty good.  Jones also converted on all 3 attempts on 3rd and short rushes, to get the first down.

 

 

It will be interesting to see who gets the goal line carries.  Yahoo thought the role was going to Fournette.  If Fournette gets those R Jones value is the equivalent of last years (which is not good).

And while thinking Jones is pretty solid that's not all there is to getting the lions share.  You also need to consider if Fournette is a worthy top 10 type draft pick running back.  In the company of the Zeke/Barkley/McCaffery/Gurley types.  Because that's where he came from.   Solid doesn't keep them on the bench.

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1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Conversely, when behind multiple  scores and you get a carry on the last play you could expect a nice gain - pretty meaningless though.  To then state something like "3.9 ypc which isn't too shabby" seems like a disingenous attempt to convince yourself that he had a decent day.

You can't just throw out everyone's "big play" and say that they had a scrubby day without it, though--because big plays are a part of the game.

Let's look at Dalvin Cook.  He had 12 carries for 50 yards (for a 4.2 ypc avg), with a long of 12.  That means he had 11 carries for 38 yards outside of the big play (3.5 ypc)--and axually, more than half of those 11 carries went for 2 yards or less.  Also, Cook lost more touches to his backup than RoJo did.  So should we trade in our Dalvins for Mattisons now?  Dalvin sure didn't look like a lead RB, outside of that one freak 12 yarder.

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11 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

You also need to consider if Fournette is a worthy top 10 type draft pick running back.  In the company of the Zeke/Barkley/McCaffery/Gurley types.  Because that's where he came from.   Solid doesn't keep them on the bench.

Well, let's see.  We have a guy who held the top two ball carrier speeds in 2017 (beating Martavis Bryant, Marquise Goodwin and Tyreek Hill for 3rd, 4th and 5th, respectively), but who did not appear among the top 15 in either 2018 or 2019.  In 2020, he couldn't beat out Ryquell Armstead, Chris Thompson and James Robinson in camp, so his team tried to trade him.  Unfortunately, none of the other RB-hungry teams in the league were willing to give even a 7th round pick for this "top 10 type draft pick running back," so he was cut outright.  He then sat on waivers for two days, but again, no RB-hungry team claimed him.  He then signed with the Buccaneers, where no one outside of fantasy owners is calling him anything other than "an insurance policy."

But we should consider him on par with Zeke, Barkley and McCaffrey.

Ok.

Dude, I'm sorry you drafted Fournette.  There's always next year.

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

He will get more work, that's a given.  He also won't become the clear RB1 at any point in the season unless Jones gets hurt.  Tampa ran 27 plays to their RB's yesterday... in a loss.  Last year, in their 9 losses, the Bucs averaged 17 plays to their RB's... only once did they break 20, and they only had 21 that game.

It's all about wins and losses.  The more games the Bucs win, the plays the RB's will get.  Jones will still get the lions share of 1st and 2nd down touches.  Yesterday he was 3 for 3 on 3rd and short.  Against the 4th best run defense in 2019, Jones average 3.9 ypc, which isn't too shabby.  To note, in 2 games last year vs the Saints (both losses), Jones totaled 13 carries, 48 yards, 4 receptions for 22 yards.  Yesterday he had 17 carries for 66 yards and 2 receptions for 16 yards.  Expect Jones to be a big part of the offense as the team gels over the course of the season.

Ok we’ll see. 

 

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2 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You can't just throw out everyone's "big play" and say that they had a scrubby day without it, though--because big plays are a part of the game.

Let's look at Dalvin Cook.  He had 12 carries for 50 yards (for a 4.2 ypc avg), with a long of 12.  That means he had 11 carries for 38 yards outside of the big play (3.5 ypc)--and axually, more than half of those 11 carries went for 2 yards or less.  Also, Cook lost more touches to his backup than RoJo did.  So should we trade in our Dalvins for Mattisons now?  Dalvin sure didn't look like a lead RB, outside of that one freak 12 yarder.

It's not giving it special consideration because it was the longest play.  It's putting the run in its proper perspective.  It wasn't during the normal course of play, it was the last play with the apposing D in extreme pass prevent. 

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3 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

It's not giving it special consideration because it was the longest play.  It's putting the run in its proper perspective.  It wasn't during the normal course of play, it was the last play with the apposing D in extreme pass prevent. 

Great!  There will probly be lots of games where Jones gets extra runs at the end.  In fact, I remember this being a selling point for DJ Chark this season too--lots of garbage time points.

You can't throw out garbage time points when considering a player's value, either.

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4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Well, let's see.  We have a guy who held the top two ball carrier speeds in 2017 (beating Martavis Bryant, Marquise Goodwin and Tyreek Hill for 3rd, 4th and 5th, respectively), but who did not appear among the top 15 in either 2018 or 2019.  In 2020, he couldn't beat out Ryquell Armstead, Chris Thompson and James Robinson in camp, so his team tried to trade him.  Unfortunately, none of the other RB-hungry teams in the league were willing to give even a 7th round pick for this "top 10 type draft pick running back," so he was cut outright.  He then sat on waivers for two days, but again, no RB-hungry team claimed him.  He then signed with the Buccaneers, where no one outside of fantasy owners is calling him anything other than "an insurance policy."

But we should consider him on par with Zeke, Barkley and McCaffrey.

Ok.

Dude, I'm sorry you drafted Fournette.  There's always next year.

An RB-hungry team knew they could wait it out, and it worked.  I didn't draft nor do I have Fournette (yet, I will try).

However, according to your posts my condolences on the investment into R Jones.  His stock has taken a major hit whether you want to acknowledge it or not.  At this point the waiver darlings of M Brown and J Robinson are more appealing.

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3 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

An RB-hungry team knew they could wait it out, and it worked.

Looks like it backfired on them after all; Fournette signed with the Bucs, who already had Jones and McCoy on the roster, leaving Fournette as the third-stringer.  I would expect him to move up to #2 after opening day, though, when McCoy looked kind of lost.

4 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

However, according to your posts my condolences on the investment into R Jones.  His stock has taken a major hit whether you want to acknowledge it or not.  At this point the waiver darlings of M Brown and J Robinson are more appealing.

Every league needs 11 losers to support the consensus, in addition to the Champion who listened to Axe Elf.

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4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Great!  There will probly be lots of games where Jones gets extra runs at the end.  In fact, I remember this being a selling point for DJ Chark this season too--lots of garbage time points.

You can't throw out garbage time points when considering a player's value, either.

Couple of points here:

First, I don't think Tampa will be behind 2 scores often.

Second, If R Jones doesn't improve he won't be there at the end.

Third, you're moving the goal posts from R Jones' solid ypc to fantasy points

 

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19 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Looks like it backfired on them after all; Fournette signed with the Bucs, who already had Jones and McCoy on the roster, leaving Fournette as the third-stringer.  I would expect him to move up to #2 after opening day, though, when McCoy looked kind of lost.

Every league needs 11 losers to support the consensus, in addition to the Champion who listened to Axe Elf.

Not if it’s only a 10 team league, or a 14 plus team league.  

Your welcome. 

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2 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Couple of points here:

First, I don't think Tampa will be behind 2 scores often.

Second, If R Jones doesn't improve he won't be there at the end.

Third, you're moving the goal posts from R Jones' solid ypc to fantasy points

 

1.  Good.  I want them UP five scores and running out the clock from the middle of the third quarter.

2.  Opinions vary, and the only one that matters is Bruce Arians' opinion.  The next-best thing is Axe Elf's.

3.  Then the posts were moved from the original goal of letting people know that Jones will continue to be the lead RB in Tampa, with Fournette constituting a support role.

I don't really care about his ypc; I was just schooling you on the futility of trying to throw out this run or that run for this reason or that reason--players get the points they earn during the games, and that's that.

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10 hours ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

Week 1 over reaction?

For who?  Are you talking R Jones, because I think that qualifies as justifiable concern.  His ADP is dropping like a rock (fantasypros RB39 under Kerryon Johnson and fantasycalculators under Zach Moss).    And these ADPs are somewhat slow to react, as can be seen by the low rankings of  M Brown and J Robinson.

There is the real possibility that this is the pinnacle of value for R Jones this season.  He may have had the highest percentage of carries he will get and the game plan was the most run oriented it might be all season (being Bradys first game as a Buc).  You might be able to get a D Parker or D Sambo for Jones in some leagues with the right circumstances.

IMO, L Fournette might be the one to catch with the over reaction of loss of value.  While LFs ADP from those two sources (RB19 and RB25) remains high, in a more up to date system his value seems like it would be plummeting also. 

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3 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

While LFs ADP from those two sources (RB19 and RB25) remains high, in a more up to date system his value seems like it would be plummeting also. 

As well it should.  5 carries for 5 yards isn't very inspiring.

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20 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

It will be interesting to see who gets the goal line carries.  Yahoo thought the role was going to Fournette.  If Fournette gets those R Jones value is the equivalent of last years (which is not good).

And while thinking Jones is pretty solid that's not all there is to getting the lions share.  You also need to consider if Fournette is a worthy top 10 type draft pick running back.  In the company of the Zeke/Barkley/McCaffery/Gurley types.  Because that's where he came from.   Solid doesn't keep them on the bench.

Yahoo is buying into the same crap a lot of people are about Fournette.  He's pretty good, but not special.  As a top 5 pick, he is a bust.  It doesn't matter where you came from, it matters on what you do.

Inside the opponents 10 yard line:

  • Fournette: 54 rush attempts, 15 TD's, 17 1D's, 5 Rec, 2 TD's, 3 1D's.
  • Jones: 14 rush attempts, 7 TD's, 8 1D's.

On 3rd/4th and short:

  • Fournette: 46 att, 194 yards, 6 TD, 31 1D's, 6 rec, 11 yards, 2 1D.
  • Jones: 13 att, 32 yards, 8 1D's, 2 rec, 11 yards, 1 1D.

Considering that Fournette has 671 career rush attempts in his career and Jones 212, I'd say that Jones is at worst, just as good as Fournette.

 

 

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On 9/15/2020 at 12:41 PM, AxeElf said:

As well it should.  5 carries for 5 yards isn't very inspiring.

12/103/2....bump

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So with all the injuries to elite RBs today, are we looking at Fournette being the league winning draft choice that no one wanted?  He was the butt of a few jokes at our draft as he continued to fall to the 8th round.

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59 minutes ago, Cretins said:

So with all the injuries to elite RBs today, are we looking at Fournette being the league winning draft choice that no one wanted?  He was the butt of a few jokes at our draft as he continued to fall to the 8th round.

I hope so, but I’m not sure he will get the volume needed to carry a team to a FF title.

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4 hours ago, Cretins said:

So with all the injuries to elite RBs today, are we looking at Fournette being the league winning draft choice that no one wanted?  He was the butt of a few jokes at our draft as he continued to fall to the 8th round.

I have him stashed in all 3 of my leagues along with Montgomery.

I'm waiting for the trade offers for Fournette any minute now :D

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On 9/14/2020 at 4:29 PM, AxeElf said:

You can't throw out garbage time points when considering a player's value, either.

Totally agree.   Remember Cecil Shorts?  Great Garbage time performer.   i  swear he got 90% of his fantasy points in garbage time.  I got him super cheap for that reason and he was a starter.  only downside is you always got nervous until he started performing in the 4th quarter of games.

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6 hours ago, Cretins said:

So with all the injuries to elite RBs today, are we looking at Fournette being the league winning draft choice that no one wanted?  He was the butt of a few jokes at our draft as he continued to fall to the 8th round.

Not anymore. 

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6 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Totally agree.   Remember Cecil Shorts?  Great Garbage time performer.   i  swear he got 90% of his fantasy points in garbage time.  I got him super cheap for that reason and he was a starter.  only downside is you always got nervous until he started performing in the 4th quarter of games.

Agree with what?  The point was R Jones ypc showed better statistically than what I saw as I watched the game.  Jones was in serious jeopardy of losing his grip on the RB1 and some glorified stat wasn't going to stop it.

Please don't fall prey to Axe moving the goal posts.  The discussion was not about garbage time. Because if R Jones isn't the better RB he won't be getting the garbage time, Fournette will, and did, and capitalized on it.

The direction has continued where the needle on R Jones is still pointed south and things are looking up for Fournette.  I'm sorry if you didn't believe me the first time.

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2 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Agree with what?  The point was R Jones ypc showed better statistically than what I saw as I watched the game.  Jones was in serious jeopardy of losing his grip on the RB1 and some glorified stat wasn't going to stop it.

Please don't fall prey to Axe moving the goal posts.  The discussion was not about garbage time. Because if R Jones isn't the better RB he won't be getting the garbage time, Fournette will, and did, and capitalized on it.

The direction has continued where the needle on R Jones is still pointed south and things are looking up for Fournette.  I'm sorry if you didn't believe me the first time.

Spot on.  Anyone that didn’t see this the minute the Bucs signed Fournette wasn’t paying attention.  This is a classic “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.  If Jones had been that highly thought of by the Bucs, there would’ve been no reason to sign a RB that was just cut because of attitude/personal reasons.  Why welcome a possible issue into your locker room if you don’t need to.  They clearly felt they had a need.

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Didn't have a chance to watch the game but it looks like Fournette is possibly the 1 A heading into week 3 and beyond right now.  

 

I picked up my Jones copies pre Fournette release and if it doesn't pan out I'll eat crow 

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14 minutes ago, Matt Mueller said:

Didn't have a chance to watch the game but it looks like Fournette is possibly the 1 A heading into week 3 and beyond right now.

It depends on how long Jones is in the doghouse Brady put him in with that "fumbled" exchange.  Since you didn't have a chance to see it, Brady bungled the handoff to Jones early in the 2nd quarter, banging the ball off his shoulder pads so hard that it bounced four yards forward into the arms of a defender.  The fumble was officially credited to Brady, of course, but who are we going to bench--the greatest QB of all time, or the other guy in the exchange?  Yep, you guessed it...

Hopefully it was just a game benching, though it sucked because it was such a good matchup for Jones.  I mean, look at what Jones would have scored without the "fumble"--38.3 in PPR.  (Fournette didn't have a single touch until after the fumble.)

Fire up your Ekelers and Kelleys next week; the Panthers are allowing 3 rushing TDs a week.

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11 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

It depends on how long Jones is in the doghouse Brady put him in with that "fumbled" exchange.  Since you didn't have a chance to see it, Brady bungled the handoff to Jones early in the 2nd quarter, banging the ball off his shoulder pads so hard that it bounced four yards forward into the arms of a defender.  The fumble was officially credited to Brady, of course, but who are we going to bench--the greatest QB of all time, or the other guy in the exchange?  Yep, you guessed it...

Hopefully it was just a game benching, though it sucked because it was such a good matchup for Jones.  I mean, look at what Jones would have scored without the "fumble"--38.3 in PPR.  (Fournette didn't have a single touch until after the fumble.)

Fire up your Ekelers and Kelleys next week; the Panthers are allowing 3 rushing TDs a week.

Axe has turned into Kevin Bacon at the end of Animal House 'All is Well'...

 

See the source imagehttps://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=%2f6bZy%2bzt&id=CF129BED0A1993477D421660F4A5E872B4A93EB5&thid=OIP._6bZy-ztgdnZVYtFU-g0MgHaE8&mediaurl=http%3a%2f%2fwww.floppingaces.net%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2017%2f02%2fkevin-bacon-all-is-well.jpeg&exph=362&expw=543&q=kevin+bacon+animal+house+meme+all+is+well&simid=608004418241364509&ck=C90C3546710F964283E9AEAA31CE227E&selectedIndex=0&FORM=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0

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37 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Axe has turned into Kevin Bacon at the end of Animal House 'All is Well'...

Nonsense.  All is definitely not well.  I'm pretty pissed at Brady for torpedoing one of Jones' best matchups of the year.

38.3 in PPR.

smh

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17 hours ago, AxeElf said:

It depends on how long Jones is in the doghouse Brady put him in with that "fumbled" exchange.  Since you didn't have a chance to see it, Brady bungled the handoff to Jones early in the 2nd quarter, banging the ball off his shoulder pads so hard that it bounced four yards forward into the arms of a defender.  The fumble was officially credited to Brady, of course, but who are we going to bench--the greatest QB of all time, or the other guy in the exchange?  Yep, you guessed it...

Hopefully it was just a game benching, though it sucked because it was such a good matchup for Jones.  I mean, look at what Jones would have scored without the "fumble"--38.3 in PPR.  (Fournette didn't have a single touch until after the fumble.)

Fire up your Ekelers and Kelleys next week; the Panthers are allowing 3 rushing TDs a week.

Arians made sure to put 100% of the blame on Jones since he berated Brady the week before. I'd like to see arians stroke out on the sidelines and carted off.

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44 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Arians made sure to put 100% of the blame on Jones since he berated Brady the week before. I'd like to see arians stroke out on the sidelines and carted off.

So you like to see harm happen to another person, shame on you.  

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20 minutes ago, weepaws said:

So you like to see harm happen to another person, shame on you.  

I think you're taking him too literally.

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17 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Nonsense.  All is definitely not well.  I'm pretty pissed at Brady for torpedoing one of Jones' best matchups of the year.

38.3 in PPR.

smh

Prior to that fumble, Jones had 21 rushing yards on 7 attempts... Fournette, with the same 7 attempts, had 17 yards.  The OLine is the biggest problem in Tampa, not either RB.

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