David Johnson or Chris Carson more upside...

[phins1921 10]

Out of DJ and Carson, which one would you rather you. I have a sneaky feeling Johnson has a good year with 50 plus receptions and 10tds. Just looking for opinions. Tia.

[weepaws 2,452]

I have DJ ahead of Carson. 

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

DJ

[AxeElf 787]

Carson.

[stonewall 647]

Like both players, but have been choosing DJ over Carson in drafts because I feel he offers more receiving upside....even with Duke around.

[Serenity Now 44]

I think DJ offers more upside, and is the better play in PPR, but I like Carson in standard as I think he has a safer floor with a higher TD upside. 

[AxeElf 787]

From 2018 to 2019, Carson increased his receptions from 20 to 37 and his targets from 24 to 47.

David Johnson has been targeted 47 times or more five times in his career.  He has 37 or more receptions in only two of those seasons.

Carson's career reception percentage (receptions/targets) is 81.0%, Johnson's is 67.5%.

[kilroy69 993]

I have both. I am using dj in my flex. But I would rather have carson. I am not sure how duke johnson is going to effect David's workload while Shitstick pete is going to ride carson. 

[stonewall 647]

7 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

From 2018 to 2019, Carson increased his receptions from 20 to 37 and his targets from 24 to 47.

David Johnson has been targeted 47 times or more five times in his career.  He has 37 or more receptions in only two of those seasons.

Carson's career reception percentage (receptions/targets) is 81.0%, Johnson's is 67.5%.

Fair numbers....but DJ has the more established track record as a pass-catching back.

They are extremely close in my estimation, but your numbers still indicate that DJ is probably more likely to have more receptions this season. Either would be a high-upside RB2.....and a most excellent flex, which I have DJ as in one of my leagues.

[weepaws 2,452]

Last two seasons , both Carson and DJ have played in 29 games. 

Carson has 71 targets and 57 rec.  

DJ has 123 targets and 86 rec.  

i would take DJ.  

 

[jrokh 567]

Unless Its full PPR, I'd definitely go with Carson, and I am a DJ believer. Carson is pretty consistent, DJ has been pretty bad lately. I anticipate a bounce back, but with Carson you don't have to anticipate or hope for anything, he already brings it...

[LoOnAtIk 75]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

From 2018 to 2019, Carson increased his receptions from 20 to 37 and his targets from 24 to 47.

David Johnson has been targeted 47 times or more five times in his career.  He has 37 or more receptions in only two of those seasons.

Carson's career reception percentage (receptions/targets) is 81.0%, Johnson's is 67.5%.

Those numbers are a little skewed considering he only started a few games in his rookie season and he was benched for much of last season too. If you extrapolate his numbers from early in the season you definitely have a top-10 back in PPR. 
 

DJ definitely has the higher ceiling and the lower floor. All depends how your roster is constructed and if you wanna roll the dice.  
 

if you’re drafting a RB1 the safer play is definitely Carson but for a RB2 I would probably target DJ for the upside. If it doesn’t work I can theoretically lean on my RB1 that I drafted prior.

 

[weepaws 2,452]

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

Unless Its full PPR, I'd definitely go with Carson, and I am a DJ believer. Carson is pretty consistent, DJ has been pretty bad lately. I anticipate a bounce back, but with Carson you don't have to anticipate or hope for anything, he already brings it...

Very good point, I think D J is more of a challenge. 

Im taking that challenge, so wish me luck. 

Thanks. 

[weepaws 2,452]

1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Those numbers are a little skewed considering he only started a few games in his rookie season and he was benched for much of last season too. If you extrapolate his numbers from early in the season you definitely have a top-10 back in PPR. 
 

DJ definitely has the higher ceiling and the lower floor. All depends how your roster is constructed and if you wanna roll the dice.  
 

if you’re drafting a RB1 the safer play is definitely Carson but for a RB2 I would probably target DJ for the upside. If it doesn’t work I can theoretically lean on my RB1 that I drafted prior.

 

Great post, and excellent points.  

[show me the murray 49]

On 9/3/2020 at 11:10 PM, AxeElf said:

From 2018 to 2019, Carson increased his receptions from 20 to 37 and his targets from 24 to 47.

David Johnson has been targeted 47 times or more five times in his career.  He has 37 or more receptions in only two of those seasons.

 Carson's career reception percentage (receptions/targets) is 81.0%, Johnson's is 67.5%.

FWIW, Duke Johnson got 62 targets last year and Carlos Hyde 16 in that Texans offense. If you assume Duke will still get some 3rd down work, that's 78 targets (not catches) to split between them. So banking on DJ getting 50+ targets... yeah, not so much. 

Watson doesn't tend to throw to RBs all that often. Meanwhile Seattle make a point of getting their backs involved as much as possible - they want to run the ball. 

Carson is easily the safer bet for me.

[Phil Simms 11 127]

Carson and it’s not close. 

[weepaws 2,452]

Miller has 35 targets in 2018 in 14 games.  

I think the right rb, and that’s DJ will garner more targets.  

And Hopkins and his targets are now gone. 

I can easily see more targets to DJ then that of Hyde and Miller.  

DJ would be the pick. 

[TheUsualSuspect 207]

Interested in this thread as I am a fan of both.. Drafted DJ 4.02 in a 12 Teamer...

QB LJ

RB Zeke

RB Carson

Flex DJ

Work to be done with my WR/TE, but I feel good about this.

 

[LoOnAtIk 75]

2 hours ago, show me the murray said:

FWIW, Duke Johnson got 62 targets last year and Carlos Hyde 16 in that Texans offense. If you assume Duke will still get some 3rd down work, that's 78 targets (not catches) to split between them. So banking on DJ getting 50+ targets... yeah, not so much. 

Watson doesn't tend to throw to RBs all that often. Meanwhile Seattle make a point of getting their backs involved as much as possible - they want to run the ball. 

Carson is easily the safer bet for me.

FWIW using last season as any kind of barometer with HOU RBs seems pretty silly considering they were starting Lamar Miller. He got hurt and they traded for Duke and signed Hyde, correct me if I’m wrong. 
 

They brought in DJ to be a weapon so I’m sure he doesn’t need to worry about touches or targets. Now what he does with these remains to be seen, but at this point I’d assume Duke is just an afterthought. Duke might not even assume a full workload if DJ were to get hurt.

[stonewall 647]

9 minutes ago, TheUsualSuspect said:

Interested in this thread as I am a fan of both.. Drafted DJ 4.02 in a 12 Teamer...

QB LJ

RB Zeke

RB Carson

Flex DJ

Work to be done with my WR/TE, but I feel good about this.

 

Good to see the Usual Suspects haunting around.

That's a stout corp. Have the same QB and flex, but Drake and Gurley as my RB's. Kupp, Diggs, CeeDee, and Hurst as my receiving corp.....we shall see.

[TheUsualSuspect 207]

20 minutes ago, stonewall said:

Good to see the Usual Suspects haunting around.

That's a stout corp. Have the same QB and flex, but Drake and Gurley as my RB's. Kupp, Diggs, CeeDee, and Hurst as my receiving corp.....we shall see.

Likewise stonewall...Have lurked the boards the past couple days but wasn’t sure I was getting into Fantasy this season until last weekend. Sooo many unknowns, but I couldnt resist, ya know?

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, TheUsualSuspect said:

Likewise stonewall...Have lurked the boards the past couple days but wasn’t sure I was getting into Fantasy this season until last weekend. Sooo many unknowns, but I couldnt resist, ya know?

This.

Once I saw that first college game and the idea that football was here really hit me, I couldn't just take the year off completely.

I'm not investing an awful lot this year, though.  Probly less than $1000, unless my $500 league fills tomorrow evening.  I kind of hope it doesn't, though, or due to another draft being pushed back a day, I'll be doing two auction drafts on two sites at the exact same time for a combined $750!

I've done two auction drafts at the same time before, but it's not recommended.  Careful what I wish for, I guess...

[show me the murray 49]

4 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

FWIW using last season as any kind of barometer with HOU RBs seems pretty silly considering they were starting Lamar Miller. He got hurt and they traded for Duke and signed Hyde, correct me if I’m wrong. 
 

They brought in DJ to be a weapon so I’m sure he doesn’t need to worry about touches or targets. Now what he does with these remains to be seen, but at this point I’d assume Duke is just an afterthought. Duke might not even assume a full workload if DJ were to get hurt.

They traded a 3rd round pick for Duke before last season. I can't see him merely being an afterthought. Still think he takes a large percentage of the third down/pass catching work.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

1 hour ago, show me the murray said:

They traded a 3rd round pick for Duke before last season. I can't see him merely being an afterthought. Still think he takes a large percentage of the third down/pass catching work.

But was it before or after Lamar Miller got hurt? 

[show me the murray 49]

18 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

But was it before or after Lamar Miller got hurt? 

Before. I'm not sure why using last season as a barometer for how they feed their RBs is silly considering Miller got hurt before the season even started. 

Last year Hyde was the power back and Duke the clear-cut receiving back. DJ now replaces Hyde, and he'll get more targets than Hyde did clearly, but Duke will still get his. 

FYI they traded a fourth rounder for Duke, but it became a 3rd if he was active for 10 games. That being said, I can't imagine if he wasn't in their plans they'd have allowed him to reach 10 games and give up a valuable 3rd pick.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

6 minutes ago, show me the murray said:

Before. I'm not sure why using last season as a barometer for how they feed their RBs is silly considering Miller got hurt before the season even started. 

Last year Hyde was the power back and Duke the clear-cut receiving back. DJ now replaces Hyde, and he'll get more targets than Hyde did clearly, but Duke will still get his. 

FYI they traded a fourth rounder for Duke, but it became a 3rd if he was active for 10 games. That being said, I can't imagine if he wasn't in their plans they'd have allowed him to reach 10 games and give up a valuable 3rd pick.

Well 1st, you are talking about Bill O’Brien so there’s that. He might be an idiot but I don’t think he would let Hyde go (Who many on this site think he’ll have value in Seattle I do not) for nothing and then turn around and trade his best skill player for a RB. 
 

It’s an embarrassing move but O’Briens job is basically linked to David Johnson now. I firmly believe if DJ stinks he’ll be fired. 
 

The main reason I say you should use previous season as any barometer is because it’s entirely different personnel. No Hopkins and add DJ. Their offense has to adjust so to assume Duke’s roll remains exactly the same seems silly. 
 

If DJ has any kind of comeback season the only time Duke will see the field is to give him a breather or a 2RB set where one can line up at WR. 
 

I highly doubt DJ is coming off the field because they wanna give Duke touches. That’s silly.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

14 minutes ago, show me the murray said:

Before. I'm not sure why using last season as a barometer for how they feed their RBs is silly considering Miller got hurt before the season even started. 

Last year Hyde was the power back and Duke the clear-cut receiving back. DJ now replaces Hyde, and he'll get more targets than Hyde did clearly, but Duke will still get his. 

FYI they traded a fourth rounder for Duke, but it became a 3rd if he was active for 10 games. That being said, I can't imagine if he wasn't in their plans they'd have allowed him to reach 10 games and give up a valuable 3rd pick.

But I concede you’re right they traded for Duke to backup Lamar Miller before he got hurt. Lamar has always been a decent receiver so whether or not Duke would have had a significant role if Lamar stayed healthy, we'll never know.

 

 

[show me the murray 49]

15 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Well 1st, you are talking about Bill O’Brien so there’s that. He might be an idiot but I don’t think he would let Hyde go (Who many on this site think he’ll have value in Seattle I do not) for nothing and then turn around and trade his best skill player for a RB. 
 

It’s an embarrassing move but O’Briens job is basically linked to David Johnson now. I firmly believe if DJ stinks he’ll be fired. 
 

The main reason I say you should use previous season as any barometer is because it’s entirely different personnel. No Hopkins and add DJ. Their offense has to adjust so to assume Duke’s roll remains exactly the same seems silly. 
  

If DJ has any kind of comeback season the only time Duke will see the field is to give him a breather or a 2RB set where one can line up at WR. 
 

I highly doubt DJ is coming off the field because they wanna give Duke touches. That’s silly.

I don't think it's silly to suggest they'll want to give Duke touches - he is one of the better 3rd down/receiving backs in the league. 4.9 yards per carry and 9.3 yards per reception last year.

Even teams with top RBs do spell them occasionally. DJ missed all of 2017, was banged up for part of last year and hasn't looked the same player since his 2016 breakout.

I agree on the different personnel - someone is going to have to take Hopkins' targets. The point I'm making though is you've got a QB who likes to throw downfield, and a HC who has had a RB finish at best 5th in receiving yards on his teams every year since 2014 when he joined the Texans. Does BoB suddenly change the way he runs his offense after 6 years?

I do agree that his fate is going to be highly linked to that trade of Nuk for DJ and he will want him to be a success, so perhaps he does go all out to give him the ball. 

But then again BoB is the de facto GM and I can't see him firing himself...

[LoOnAtIk 75]

21 minutes ago, show me the murray said:

I don't think it's silly to suggest they'll want to give Duke touches - he is one of the better 3rd down/receiving backs in the league. 4.9 yards per carry and 9.3 yards per reception last year.

Even teams with top RBs do spell them occasionally. DJ missed all of 2017, was banged up for part of last year and hasn't looked the same player since his 2016 breakout.

I agree on the different personnel - someone is going to have to take Hopkins' targets. The point I'm making though is you've got a QB who likes to throw downfield, and a HC who has had a RB finish at best 5th in receiving yards on his teams every year since 2014 when he joined the Texans. Does BoB suddenly change the way he runs his offense after 6 years?

I do agree that his fate is going to be highly linked to that trade of Nuk for DJ and he will want him to be a success, so perhaps he does go all out to give him the ball. 

But then again BoB is the de facto GM and I can't see him firing himself...

You’re talking about a RB who backed up Isaiah Crowell and Carlos Hyde. He’s never backed up a true bellcow. I can’t imagine any offensive packages for Duke that cannot be called for DJ. 

The idea that Duke might cut into DJs production is silly. The only things that will hurt DJ this year is either his own injury or inneffectiveness. 
 

Same goes for Carson IMO. I don’t think Hyde has any upside, especially once Penny comes back. Carson would have to get hurt or continue to fumble at an alarming rate.

 

[weepaws 2,452]

And either one of those things could happen to Carson n 

Hyde and Penny will take work away from Carson. 

[weepaws 2,452]

Just read on roto, so it’s not FFToday, but I read that coach Carrol hinted of a possible hot hand approach with Carson coming of hip surgery, not saying there is anything there, but it could be interesting if you drafted Carson and Hyde. N

But coach speak is coach speak, see what happens.