Am I the only one, that thinks David Johnson could surprise ?

[snatchit 108]

I have him as my 3rd RB.. was thrilled to get him early 4th rnd. I know its a gamble, but I think he will play very well. If he can stay healthy, I like him over Bell, Gurely, Gordon ect

[stonewall 647]

He's a great value this year. Then again, so is Gurly-man

[Super Cubs 132]

I think he will be great in PPR leagues.

[Ray_T 587]

I have gone on record I think in the bold prediictions thread saying he will have a bounceback season.  I still stand by that prediction. 

my only concern is him staying healthy

[polecatt 399]

I think it's possible he bounces back with a new team and exceeds expectations

[Phil Simms 11 127]

I’m avoiding. I much prefer Gurley and Carson in that range

[weepaws 2,451]

I think Gurley and DJ might have the best value of any two players this draft season. 

 

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think Gurley and DJ might have the best value of any two players this draft season. 

 

Idk about Gurley. He is going to be very td dependent. His knee is obviously an issue now, so i don't expect a ton of yards

[BobSanders_33 127]

12 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I have gone on record I think in the bold prediictions thread saying he will have a bounceback season.  I still stand by that prediction. 

my only concern is him staying healthy

Staying healthy is a big thing.  I think many doubt he will stay healthy.  There is also concern that over time the injuries have built up and sapped him of athleticism.  Being below 4 yards per carry the last two years puts me off. 

Due to injuries I think he has a low floor and a low upside.  At his average draft position in the middle of the 3rd I'd rather take a WR or a higher upside choice like Johnathon Taylor. 

[BufordT 371]

Edmonds and Drake severely outperformed DJ in that offense last year which leads me to think DJ is fools gold. Let others take him.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I took dj in the third. Its too good of a deal to pass up for the unquestioned starter of a team that traded DeAndre Hopkins fir hm. 

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I just realized I haven't heard a peep about johnson since he got to Texas. Imagine if he does explode again this year. All of the hype that every rookie gets while practicing in shorts, and not a word about David johnson.

[snatchit 108]

2 hours ago, BufordT said:

Edmonds and Drake severely outperformed DJ in that offense last year which leads me to think DJ is fools gold. Let others take him.

Oh brother, the dude was playing hurt all year. Crack researchers like you, allow me to make big money every year. I suppose you would rather take an unknown rookie RB that will be splitting carries ?

[BufordT 371]

2 hours ago, snatchit said:

 I suppose you would rather take an unknown rookie RB that will be splitting carries ?

ummm...no

[Utilit99 4,099]

I have 3 younger RBs under contract in Jacobs, Singletary, and now Akers so during our auction this last Friday I was hoping I could add Johnson or Bell. RBs were going off the board at such high prices it was crazy. It was similar to snake drafts taking 9-10 RBS in the first round of a 12 teamer. I ended up with Leveon Bell of the two. I feel good about it. 

[weepaws 2,451]

7 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I took dj in the third. Its too good of a deal to pass up for the unquestioned starter of a team that traded DeAndre Hopkins fir hm. 

That’s where I see him going, might be a late second round in my league, non ppr 14 teams. 

I think he’ll have a good season. 

[weepaws 2,451]

9 hours ago, BufordT said:

Edmonds and Drake severely outperformed DJ in that offense last year which leads me to think DJ is fools gold. Let others take him.

Others in your leagues will be happy they did. 

[Ray_T 587]

On 9/5/2020 at 9:03 AM, BobSanders_33 said:

Staying healthy is a big thing.  I think many doubt he will stay healthy.  There is also concern that over time the injuries have built up and sapped him of athleticism.  Being below 4 yards per carry the last two years puts me off. 

Due to injuries I think he has a low floor and a low upside.  At his average draft position in the middle of the 3rd I'd rather take a WR or a higher upside choice like Johnathon Taylor. 

you also need remember he ran behind what was likely the worst or second worst line in the NFL.

i have also found that stats during seasons marred by injury are fairly useless to my analysis most of the time.

player comes back from injury, they need to relearn the system to some degree.  they are not in game shape.   and sometimes it takes a while to get the mental side of the game back.

some players have the abiliity to overcome these things and some just dont and it takes a few weeks to round into form.   I am sure length of time out and type of injury affect this too.

all I am sayiing is the injury seasons may not really be the indicator you want to use.

 

[Phil Simms 11 127]

Saw DJ drop down to end of 4th last night. They start 3WRs so I guess WRs were drafted much earlier 

I passed on DJ and took Gurley in the 4th who was also way late

[weepaws 2,451]

Wow  both Gurley and DJ made it to the forth round.  

Mmm 

[loonecho 19]

I got DJ with the eighth pick in the 4th round last night. Gurley went two picks ahead of him. 12 team non- ppr. He was my third RB after Kamara an Ekeler.

[weepaws 2,451]

I think Ekeler is a tough one in a non ppr, I think his adp is way to high.  

Jackson and Kelley will split those early down rush plays.  

But picking up your rb2 in the 4Th was great.  

Congrats 

[Ray_T 587]

38 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I think Ekeler is a tough one in a non ppr, I think his adp is way to high.  

Jackson and Kelley will split those early down rush plays.  

But picking up your rb2 in the 4Th was great.  

Congrats 

I agree, Ekeler is overvalued.

He also wont have Phil Rivers using him as a checkdown.   We know Rivers likes throwing to his TE's and RB's and checks down to them a lot.

I dont see any of the Charger QB's doing it to the same degree.

Taylor wont be bad, but some of those checkdowns will turn into Tyrod Scrambles instead.

I wouldnt be surprised if DJ puts up the numbers you were expecting from Ekeler and Ekeler puts up the numbers you were expecting from DJ. (fantasy points wise.  not necessarily run/pass yardage)

[SigEp316 0]

I'm rolling with Johnson as my flex play/RB3 this year.  He seems poised to show some haters wrong and have seen that he was injured most of last year.  I believe he's going to be top-15 in PPR leagues with a ceiling into the top-10.  Based on his draft position, I can see a lot of Championship teams having shares of DJ on their squads.  

[show me the murray 49]

21 hours ago, Ray_T said:

you also need remember he ran behind what was likely the worst or second worst line in the NFL.

i have also found that stats during seasons marred by injury are fairly useless to my analysis most of the time.

player comes back from injury, they need to relearn the system to some degree.  they are not in game shape.   and sometimes it takes a while to get the mental side of the game back.

some players have the abiliity to overcome these things and some just dont and it takes a few weeks to round into form.   I am sure length of time out and type of injury affect this too.

all I am sayiing is the injury seasons may not really be the indicator you want to use.

 

Cardinals O-line wasn't that bad last year. In fact they were 2nd in the league in yards per rush attempt with 5.0. Even if it's not the result of a strong O-line, the scheme at least was allowing RBs to make plays.

It would concern me a bit that DJ wasn't able to in a scheme that created pretty huge holes for RBs. Drake had some huge games after coming in and even Edmonds had a 130+ 3TD stat line against the Giants. As a Cards fan, DJ looked slow and hesitant to hit the gaps. Maybe it was injuries, but this is a guy who hasn't looked like the same player since 2016. That's a pretty long time to suddenly bounce back and look like a stud.

The one thing I like about DJ is the usage and the idea BoB will want to prove the doubters wrong by giving him a ton of volume. If that's the case he could put up some big numbers, but I see him more as a Fournette type who got decent stats last year but largely because he was being force-fed the ball on all three downs. Duke Johnson could definitely take away some receiving work from DJ - I see DJ being used in a similar (but more effective) way to how Hyde was used by the Texans last year.

Of course BoB could also have Watson throw the ball all over the place to prove he didn't need Hopkins at all. Who knows what BoB will do.

[The Shepherd 10]

The majority of 'experts' are predicting a bouce-back year for David Johnson.

I didn't draft him - I'll wait for him to go through a very tough early schedule and if he survives that, I'll try to get him through a trade.

[show me the murray 49]

9 minutes ago, The Shepherd said:

The majority of 'experts' are predicting a bouce-back year for David Johnson.

I didn't draft him - I'll wait for him to go through a very tough early schedule and if he survives that, I'll try to get him through a trade.

Yep. I took Jonathan Taylor instead as I’d rather have the upside. 
 

I personally think if you’re taking DJ in the 3rd/4th you’re looking for him to be 2016 DJ. I want to see evidence he can be that player before I roll with him as a potential RB2. 
 

I think a more realistic target for DJ is to be a better version of what Hyde was for the Texans last year - the early down, between the tackles guy. Duke will take some receiving work and Watson doesn’t actually dump off to RBs that much anyway. 
 

Hyde would have won some people their leagues last year. Difference is they probably got him in rounds 10-12 or even off of waivers. 3rd round for DJ just feels a bit rich. 

[weepaws 2,451]

Not looking at 2016 good, that would make him a rb1.  

But 2018 with a few more tds 

[Kent 228]

On 9/4/2020 at 8:22 PM, snatchit said:

I have him as my 3rd RB.. was thrilled to get him early 4th rnd. I know its a gamble, but I think he will play very well. If he can stay healthy, I like him over Bell, Gurely, Gordon ect

I got the same deal. He's in my flex. Hope he rebounds.  He's a steal if he can rekindle his old form. 

[snatchit 108]

10 hours ago, SigEp316 said:

I'm rolling with Johnson as my flex play/RB3 this year.  He seems poised to show some haters wrong and have seen that he was injured most of last year.  I believe he's going to be top-15 in PPR leagues with a ceiling into the top-10.  Based on his draft position, I can see a lot of Championship teams having shares of DJ on their squads.  

ya he is my # 3 ....Flex guy along with Cook and Mixon. I took him ahead of Gurley. I am pretty excited. cant wait to see him in action Thursday night !!!

 

[AxeElf 787]

58 minutes ago, snatchit said:

I am pretty excited. cant wait to see him in action Thursday night !!!

What lead do you think the Texans will feel is safe enough to start leaning heavily on David Johnson?

[weepaws 2,451]

39 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

What lead do you think the Texans will feel is safe enough to start leaning heavily on David Johnson?

Do you have reason to think they won’t? 

[snatchit 108]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

What lead do you think the Texans will feel is safe enough to start leaning heavily on David Johnson?

he is a pass catcher ding dong

[show me the murray 49]

38 minutes ago, snatchit said:

he is a pass catcher ding dong

So is Duke Johnson, and a pretty good one at that. And he only caught 44 passes last year. He was targeted around 4 times a game on average. Hyde was targeted once a game. That's 5 targets (not catches, TARGETS) to Texans RBs.

This is why I'm wary of DJ. Why, when the Texans don't typically throw to RBs that much, is DJ suddenly going to become a target monster?

Deshaun Watson likes to push the ball downfield. That's why I'm seeing DJ as more a Hyde-with-added-upside. 

[weepaws 2,451]

2019 the Duke J had 62 targets with 44 rec. 

2018 with the Browns. , he had 62 targets with 47 rec.  

I think the Texans will be getting D J more involved in the passing game then when they had Miller and Hyde. 

 

[show me the murray 49]

7 hours ago, weepaws said:

2019 the Duke J had 62 targets with 44 rec. 

2018 with the Browns. , he had 62 targets with 47 rec.  

I think the Texans will be getting D J more involved in the passing game then when they had Miller and Hyde. 

 

Totally agree they'll get him more involved. Point I'm making is Watson doesn't throw a ton to RBs and Duke still needs to get fed. Even if Duke drops off to say 50 targets you're still looking for another 50+ targets to DJ in an offense that doesn't tend to play that way. Maybe that'll change minus Hopkins and there are a lot more targets to go around. But their WR corps of Fuller, Stills and Cooks suggests a deep passing game with a lot of speed, not dump-offs to RBs.

DJ will be a weapon, I'm just not expecting him to feature as heavily in the passing game as he did with the Cardinals.

[weepaws 2,451]

I don’t see why Duke needs to get feed, of DJ is rolling then Duke might go hungry   

 

[Kent 228]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

I don’t see why Duke needs to get feed, of DJ is rolling then Duke might go hungry   

 

Agreed. People seem to forget DJ is a natural proven pass catching back.   

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

He look old and slow last year.

[weepaws 2,451]

38 minutes ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

He look old and slow last year.

Don’t disagree, but I’m wondering how that might have been because he was injured, I know he started out the season, and was avg over 17 touches per game, but when you look at his avg , he wasn’t very productive, but the Texans didn’t go out and pick up anyone else , so I’m thinking he might rebound, not like his best season, but more like 2018. 

Dont know , we’ll see.