Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
AxeElf

Mostert FTW!

Recommended Posts

22 minutes ago, Canadianfan said:

not every horse race ends with the favourite.

The last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby with those kind of odds was 1913. So I guess your due...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Casual fan yes, but I try to watch the Kentucky Derby. In 2005, turned the TV on before the race and saw like 50-1 odds on my ‘namesake’ horse Giacomo,. If more time, it’d have been fun to put some money on the race he went on to win. A long shot won again in 2019.

who could have predicted Mostert’s 228 yd playoff explosion? Long shot yes, but I think he’s better than 82-1. Btw I’d like to see a race between Raheem and Tyreek! 😎

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mustard won't get enough carries to make up the 250 yards he currently is behind. Tevin Coleman is due back in a couple of weeks. If you get 50 bucks of entertainment out of it, then yeah, who cares, but kiss that money goodbye, its as good as gone...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you think Moestert has better than a 1.2% chance of winning the rushing title, than it's worth the bet with the understanding that you'll likely lose.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Mustard won't get enough carries to make up the 250 yards he currently is behind. Tevin Coleman is due back in a couple of weeks. If you get 50 bucks of entertainment out of it, then yeah, who cares, but kiss that money goodbye, its as good as gone...

I kissed about 150 bucks worth of rips good bye last night.  good as gone , but boy was it fun 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bobby heenan said:

i dont how much gambling you do...

I am a semi-professional poker player--so none, really.

1 hour ago, bobby heenan said:

but i can assure you ive been involved very much for the last 20+ years...

I would be curious how much you have lost over the years, but I know I won't get an honest answer from a gambler.

1 hour ago, bobby heenan said:

you need to learn about expected value...

In the process of receiving my Master of Science degree, various statistics courses were required.  Assuming a standard 10% vig, your expected value on a $50 bet at 82-1 odds is 4.8 cents.

1 hour ago, bobby heenan said:

mostert at 82-1 is good value...it may be a long shot but the odds certainly reflect it....its def worth a 50-100 dollar bet just for the potential return.....

I agree that the odds of Mostert winning the rushing title may indeed be more than 82-1 (those odds probably reflect the fact that Mostert continues to kind of fly under the radar, both in fantasy and in real life), but even if it's really 10-1, the chances are very good that you are still losing.  The odds are better that you will flip three heads in a row than that you will win a 10-1 bet.

So as someone else said, if you just made a longshot bet for the fun of it, enjoy.  But for someone who says they do a lot of gambling, it just tells me that you probably lose a lot more than you win.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mostert runs too upright for me to think he'll stay healthy with heavy enough usage to win the rushing title.  That said if he is anywhere close with 2 weeks to go, you can realize value out of the ticket by hedging out of it and betting the under on Mostert's rushing totals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Canadianfan said:

I kissed about 150 bucks worth of rips good bye last night.  good as gone , but boy was it fun 

Win some lose some, but live to fight another day...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On that rushing title bet... I would worry about their upcoming schedule and if they can stay competitive enough to continue to run the ball later in games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If one can afford to put $50 casually on an 82-1 long shot for fun, hardly would call it not working a gut punch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Coach Kyle Shanahan said Raheem Mostert has a high-ankle sprain and is likely headed to injured reserve. This guy seems to have trouble staying healthy...

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would assume he goes on IR, and we don't see him before Week 12 since San Francisco has their bye in Week 11.  He could end up a beast at playoff time......or he could get hurt in the 1st half of his 1st game back.  I'll stash him on my roster I guess.

 

Is anyone picking up JaMycal Hasty?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/18/2020 at 3:46 PM, AxeElf said:

Henry's chances of repeating as rushing champion just took an upward turn.

Henry is a monster.   I had my doubts after he signed that deal.  I Thought he’d fade like most other backs that sign long term multi million dollar deals.  Nope,  got better.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/18/2020 at 12:30 PM, AxeElf said:

I am a semi-professional poker player--so none, really.

I would be curious how much you have lost over the years, but I know I won't get an honest answer from a gambler.

In the process of receiving my Master of Science degree, various statistics courses were required.  Assuming a standard 10% vig, your expected value on a $50 bet at 82-1 odds is 4.8 cents.

I agree that the odds of Mostert winning the rushing title may indeed be more than 82-1 (those odds probably reflect the fact that Mostert continues to kind of fly under the radar, both in fantasy and in real life), but even if it's really 10-1, the chances are very good that you are still losing.  The odds are better that you will flip three heads in a row than that you will win a 10-1 bet.

So as someone else said, if you just made a longshot bet for the fun of it, enjoy.  But for someone who says they do a lot of gambling, it just tells me that you probably lose a lot more than you win.

i will give you an honest answer......ive been doing it for awhile...i bet sports..also play craps and blackjack..i live 15 mins from the two casinos in CT but also live in a state where i can bet on sports online....even before online sports availibility i had books.....i make money on top of a nice paycheck from a job..enough to have some nice extras...im not gonna tell you i have a 250k boat...but i do alright.......im not a degenerate....i learned my lesson in my younger years...im not an action junkie who will play the college football and basketball boards all day on saturday from noon to midnight...i do my homework and spot bet on lines i feel are off or where i have an advantage....i might bet 1-3 games on a weekend....i do throw futures out there from time to time but for fun....some of the most successful sports gamblers still throw out futures bets and they have large bankrolls much larger than mine although im not a huge fan of them.....

l still stand by what i said..its not a terrible bet...especially if you just have a hunch or a feeling and are throwing out there for fun and not depending on xmas money for it......that bet went to sh1t just as quickly as i thought it could turn to have a chance...those are the breaks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bobby heenan said:

i will give you an honest answer......ive been doing it for awhile...i bet sports..also play craps and blackjack..i live 15 mins from the two casinos in CT but also live in a state where i can bet on sports online....even before online sports availibility i had books.....i make money on top of a nice paycheck from a job..enough to have some nice extras...im not gonna tell you i have a 250k boat...but i do alright.......im not a degenerate....i learned my lesson in my younger years...im not an action junkie who will play the college football and basketball boards all day on saturday from noon to midnight...i do my homework and spot bet on lines i feel are off or where i have an advantage....i might bet 1-3 games on a weekend....i do throw futures out there from time to time but for fun....some of the most successful sports gamblers still throw out futures bets and they have large bankrolls much larger than mine although im not a huge fan of them.....

I do appreciate the straight talk, and I understand a $50 bet on a whim, but I stand by what I said too--Mostert's production is half receiving--he wasn't even a good longshot bet for the rushing title.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×