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jackjohn

Buy low, sell high

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Who are your buy lows, and sell highs?

Buy:

TY Hilton. Rivers is the new qb, going into week 3, with no preseason, they have to mesh sometime, right? Can Rivers target Hilton like Allen sometime soon?

N. Hines: same story different chapter. I see Hines as a poor mans Ekeler. Will Reich see it? I'm thinking Taylor has a fumble or 2, it becomes a more even backfield. Probably not this weekend vs the Jets though. Needs to be a competitive game script.

H. Hurst: I thought he would come out of the gates on fire. He is a better athlete than Hooper, and on a team that's going to be in plenty of shootouts. A disappointing week 1 and meh week 2 might have owners worried. But with no preseason to get in sync, and Seattle has a great set of LB's vs TE, I think he really starts to click with Ryan real soon. Possible shootouts with TB and NO weeks 15 and 16.

Sell high:

David Johnson: you're not going to get a top 10 return, but Hou is in trouble. With nobody, but a Fuller fly route to defend in the secondary, teams can load the box. DJ is currently healthy, and a negative game script keeps him startable in ppr, but I think he is on borrowed time. I'm taking what I can get for him now, especially targeting Barkley, cmc, owners.

Julio Jones: This guy is frustrating, if you've ever owned him. He has HUGE games, followed by duds. His year end stats are always up there. Week 2 he has a hamstring injury. Those tend to linger. With Ridley looking like a top wr, Gage stepping up, and Hurst learning, I think Julio drops out of top 15. It's still early in the season, so you might be able to get a decent return for him, but I prefer him to be someone elses headache.

M. Davis: Waivers went nuts for him, like he was going to be the next CMC. Don't get me wrong, if you need a plug and play rb, he seems like a fine choice. But if you burned your waiver choice or faab on him, I'd sell now. CMC will be back and Davis will be relegated back to insignificance. 

 

Just my random thoughts while having some beers. Cheers and Good luck week 3. 

 

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Buy low- Leonard Fournette. I think he'll finish top 10 fantasy RB points. Who are we kidding, he's the guy in Tampa Bay. Can probably get him for a solid #2 RB (Chris Carson type)

Sell high - Aaron Rodgers. Love him, think he was ranked too low at beginning of season, but I don't know that his trade value will be higher throughout the season than it is right now. 

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Sell High

Jonnu Smith- are we really to think a TE for the Titans will keep on this path for the whole season?

Buy Low

Kenyan Drake- He's not exactly off to the best start, so his owner may be panicking, I think he will get going soon on that offense

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27 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Apparently, you're kidding Bruce Arians...

There's No Way a Backup RB Finishes Among the Top 10

Uugh, I'm staying away from that mess. Is that just coach talk, or real? Then you also have McCoy there too. If you think Fournette is gonna be the guy, absolutely buy low. But I cant see him getting the volume, with Brady, Evan's, Godwin, Gronk, Howard, etc. As your rb3 or 4 to cover bye weeks, maybe. If you can get him on the cheap, why not?

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Sale Mixon. 

Buy J  Cook. 

Sale. Evans and or Godwin. 

Buy J.K Dobbins. 

Sale Higbee, his stock wouldn’t get any higher.  

Buy M Jones.  

Thanks. 

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Excuse my negativity, but I don’t think some of you know how this works.

Youre a week late on Fournette.

Mixon, Julio and DJ aren’t exactly sell highs, unless you are going off ADP alone.

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23 minutes ago, TheUsualSuspect said:

Excuse my negativity, but I don’t think some of you know how this works.

Youre a week late on Fournette.

Mixon, Julio and DJ aren’t exactly sell highs, unless you are going off ADP alone.

No you don’t know how this works , see some one will still think highly of Mixon and J Jones. 

Some one even in your league, so that’s how this works.  This is the time to sale, because soon it will be to late to sale high. 

Thanks. 

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39 minutes ago, weepaws said:

No you don’t know how this works , see some one will still think highly of Mixon and J Jones. 

Some one even in your league, so that’s how this works.  This is the time to sale, because soon it will be to late to sale high. 

Thanks. 

I don’t know how you work.

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32 minutes ago, TheUsualSuspect said:

I don’t know how you work.

Right. 

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7 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Apparently, you're kidding Bruce Arians...

There's No Way a Backup RB Finishes Among the Top 10

Hunt has more fantasy points than Chubb after 2 weeks in PPR.  I’ll gladly take the RB who scores more points and gets more touches over the RB who gets the first carry of the game.  Did you read the article?  He clearly said Fournette would be kept fresh for later in the game.  What do you think that means?  I guess he needs him spry to run the water bottles out to the starters during time outs.

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Buy Joshua Kelley. Sell Ekeler. They’re tied in rushing attempts, but Kelley is getting all the work inside the ten and his snap percentage was over 50% last game. All of Ekelers ff production are going to be hard earned points in yardage, with very few two yard six point plunges. Ekeler is currently being viewed as a high end RB2 and Kelley as a middling RB3. They play Carolina this week, so buy Kelley this week and sell Ekeler next week.

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Buy low: Todd Gurley. After this week starting week 4 Gurley faces the Packers (run d 22), Panthers (32), Min (23), Det (30), and Panthers again (32). Buy low: All NY Giants. After this week, starting week 4 they face: LAR, Dal, Was, Phi, TB, Was, Phi, Cin, Sea, Ari, Cle. Depending on your view of Philly, and Washington, not much there to be scared of.

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6 hours ago, JagFan said:

I’ll gladly take the RB who scores more points and gets more touches over the RB who gets the first carry of the game.

Me too.

6 hours ago, JagFan said:

He clearly said Fournette would be kept fresh for later in the game.  What do you think that means?

Well, it doesn't seem very complicated, but I'll explain it to you if need be.  I think it means that Arians likes the idea of having Fournette fresh in the 4th quarter, so he's going to run Ronald Jones with a sprinkling of McCoy for the first 3 quarters (unless of course Brady fumbles another exchange and Jones takes the fall).

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Buy low, Hamler, Engram, Bourne, and maybe Cam Akers, I mean can his value get any lower? 

 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Me too.

Well, it doesn't seem very complicated, but I'll explain it to you if need be.  I think it means that Arians likes the idea of having Fournette fresh in the 4th quarter, so he's going to run Ronald Jones with a sprinkling of McCoy for the first 3 quarters (unless of course Brady fumbles another exchange and Jones takes the fall).

If you ever figure out this game, this message board will become much less entertaining. 

This is by far my favorite site to get FF insight.  I won my league last year by doing the opposite of everything you post.  I’m in 1st place so far this year.  Thanks AxElf!

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6 minutes ago, JagFan said:

I won my league last year by doing the opposite of everything you post.

Live long and prosper.

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8 hours ago, JagFan said:

Hunt has more fantasy points than Chubb after 2 weeks in PPR.  I’ll gladly take the RB who scores more points and gets more touches over the RB who gets the first carry of the game.  Did you read the article?  He clearly said Fournette would be kept fresh for later in the game.  What do you think that means?  I guess he needs him spry to run the water bottles out to the starters during time outs.

I think it’s cheap couch talk, he won’t limit the usage of his best rb. 

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25 minutes ago, weepaws said:

he won’t limit the usage of his best rb. 

Finally we agree!

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3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Finally we agree!

I’m glad we both see Fournette as the Bucs true rb1. 

 

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7 hours ago, jrokh said:

Buy low: Todd Gurley. After this week starting week 4 Gurley faces the Packers (run d 22), Panthers (32), Min (23), Det (30), and Panthers again (32). Buy low: All NY Giants. After this week, starting week 4 they face: LAR, Dal, Was, Phi, TB, Was, Phi, Cin, Sea, Ari, Cle. Depending on your view of Philly, and Washington, not much there to be scared of.

Just sent a trade offer to get Gurley, Hilton, Minshew for Montgomery, Corey Davis, Stafford. 

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20 hours ago, DEEZNUTS said:

Buy low- Leonard Fournette. I think he'll finish top 10 fantasy RB points. Who are we kidding, he's the guy in Tampa Bay. Can probably get him for a solid #2 RB (Chris Carson type)

I  have no problems on a radical shot at a buy low candidate.  But the "probably get him for Chris  Carson"?  Yikes.  Yes, yes you could - easily. 

The market according to Yahoo has Fournette going for the likes of JK Dobbins/Devante Parker/Tyler Boyd/Keelan Cole/Terry McLaurin/Jerrick McKinon.  No one in their right mind would even float out an RB2.  But getting him for some of the listed candidates makes for a nice risk.

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55 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I’m glad we both see Fournette as the Bucs true rb1. 

No, that's only for idiots who think they are the coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers instead of Bruce Arians, who has clearly delineated who HIS #1 RB is.

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46 minutes ago, rotisserieking said:

Just sent a trade offer to get Gurley, Hilton, Minshew for Montgomery, Corey Davis, Stafford. 

Has it been rejected yet?

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58 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I  have no problems on a radical shot at a buy low candidate.  But the "probably get him for Chris  Carson"?  Yikes.  Yes, yes you could - easily. 

The market according to Yahoo has Fournette going for the likes of JK Dobbins/Devante Parker/Tyler Boyd/Keelan Cole/Terry McLaurin/Jerrick McKinon.  No one in their right mind would even float out an RB2.  But getting him for some of the listed candidates makes for a nice risk.

And you’d better do it now.  That price goes up again by Monday.

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6 hours ago, rotisserieking said:

Just sent a trade offer to get Gurley, Hilton, Minshew for Montgomery, Corey Davis, Stafford. 

Good one, of Im the other owner, wouldn’t take it. 

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10 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Finally we agree!

You said.   

Thanks. 

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6 hours ago, AxeElf said:

No, that's only for idiots who think they are the coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers instead of Bruce Arians, who has clearly delineated who HIS #1 RB is.

His rb2 we’ll score more ff points then his rb1.  

We agree. 

Thanks. 

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8 hours ago, weepaws said:

Good one, of Im the other owner, wouldn’t take it. 

He took the offer. Bad news for me because I started Minshew and LSJ. Ouch.

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Winston Churchill: Americans will always do the right thing only after they have tried everything else...

This means at some point the Jets will see what they have in Perrine.

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On 9/24/2020 at 8:35 AM, Serenity Now said:

Buy Joshua Kelley. Sell Ekeler. They’re tied in rushing attempts, but Kelley is getting all the work inside the ten and his snap percentage was over 50% last game. All of Ekelers ff production are going to be hard earned points in yardage, with very few two yard six point plunges. Ekeler is currently being viewed as a high end RB2 and Kelley as a middling RB3. They play Carolina this week, so buy Kelley this week and sell Ekeler next week.

100% on board with this, but I couldn't pull the trigger because Justin Jackson is due to return soon...will probably regret not getting something done.

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2 hours ago, Saint Elistan said:

100% on board with this, but I couldn't pull the trigger because Justin Jackson is due to return soon...will probably regret not getting something done.

He could change some aspects, but he profiles closer to ekeler. Kelley has replaced Gordon in the offense, after this week it’ll be widely known

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On 9/24/2020 at 9:35 AM, Serenity Now said:

Buy Joshua Kelley. Sell Ekeler. They’re tied in rushing attempts, but Kelley is getting all the work inside the ten and his snap percentage was over 50% last game. All of Ekelers ff production are going to be hard earned points in yardage, with very few two yard six point plunges. Ekeler is currently being viewed as a high end RB2 and Kelley as a middling RB3. They play Carolina this week, so buy Kelley this week and sell Ekeler next week.

Kelley has one heck on an easy schedule thru his week 10 BYE as well. 

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The Bucs have had just one 100-yard rushing game in each of the last three seasons, most recently a 106-yard game by Jones against Atlanta in last year’s season finale, his only career 100-yard game.

 

These are the facts I took from the source Axe posted.  Ronald Jones is nowhere near as talented as Fournette by this stat alone.

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23 minutes ago, Smileseers said:

The Bucs have had just one 100-yard rushing game in each of the last three seasons, most recently a 106-yard game by Jones against Atlanta in last year’s season finale, his only career 100-yard game.

Fournette didn't even have ONE 100-yard rushing game in HIS second NFL season, so what's your point?

In fact, he only had three games with more than 50 yards rushing as an NFL sophomore; Jones had seven.

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In his sophomore season, Jones played in 16 games, and avg 8 points per game non ppr, and avg 10 points per game in ppr. M

In his sophomore season , Fournette played in 8 games, and avg 12 points per game non ppr , and 15 per game ppr.  

I don’t know, I rather have the ff player that’s going to get me more ff points.  

2020 Fournette is ahead in ff points , and they both have played the same number of games, on the same team.  

Thanks. 

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7 hours ago, weepaws said:

In his sophomore season, Jones played in 16 games, and avg 8 points per game non ppr, and avg 10 points per game in ppr. M

In his sophomore season , Fournette played in 8 games, and avg 12 points per game non ppr , and 15 per game ppr.  

I don’t know, I rather have the ff player that’s going to get me more ff points.  

2020 Fournette is ahead in ff points , and they both have played the same number of games, on the same team.  

Thanks. 

This would probly be the typical trap that one who doesn't watch the games might fall into.

Others would understand the reasons behind the stats and be able to project forward more accurately from them.

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3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

This would probly be the typical trap that one who doesn't watch the games might fall into.

Others would understand the reasons behind the stats and be able to project forward more accurately from them.

And how would you project their usage going forward?

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