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AxeElf

Random Observations - 2020

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Is this the dawning of the Age of the Browns?  It kinda looks like things are coming together--they're having fun now.  And they have now scored 30 or more points in 3 straight games for the first time in 50 years.

Hopefully Chubb won't be out long.

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16 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Is this the dawning of the Age of the Browns?  It kinda looks like things are coming together--they're having fun now.  And they have now scored 30 or more points in 3 straight games for the first time in 50 years.

Hopefully Chubb won't be out long.

No, more like they're playing the worst defense in NFL history.

If you have any players going up against the Cowboys, start them.

I don't care if it's a 3rd string QB over Patrick Mahomes, start them

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Just now, polecatt said:

No, more like they're playing the worst defense in NFL history.

They haven't played the Cowboys 3 games in a row.

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Just now, AxeElf said:

They haven't played the Cowboys 3 games in a row.

No, but the football team and Bengals aren't exactly great competition.

I'm not saying the Browns aren't coming along nicely, just to keep it in perspective

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Just now, polecatt said:

No, but the football team and Bengals aren't exactly great competition.

Maybe not, but they're not...

4 minutes ago, polecatt said:

...the worst defense in NFL history.

 

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1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

Maybe not, but they're not...

 

No they're just your typical terrible teams

Browns are worth starting in good match ups

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1 minute ago, polecatt said:

Browns are worth starting in good match ups

I wasn't even really commenting from a fantasy perspective.  It's just that after looking like the same ol' Browns in Week 1, by Week 4 it's starting to look like the Browns could be the competitive team that they have been hoping to build over the past couple of seasons from a real-life, NFL perspective.

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3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I wasn't even really commenting from a fantasy perspective.  It's just that after looking like the same ol' Browns in Week 1, by Week 4 it's starting to look like the Browns could be the competitive team that they have been hoping to build over the past couple of seasons from a real-life, NFL perspective.

Yeah, they'll be 3-1, on a 3 game win streak. Looked good doing it.

Big test the next 2 weeks with the Colts and Steelers if they can get 2 or even 1 win, I would say they're in the mix

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2 minutes ago, rallo said:

Cowboys making a move for T. Lawrence?

Hopefully somebody on defense.

I don't know that I would trust anybody named Lawrence at this point.

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This issue came up a couple of times in the early games.

Apparently, "the book" says that if you are down by 14 points in the 4th quarter and you score a TD, your odds of winning the game actually go up slightly if you go for 2, rather than kicking the extra point.  At least, that's what Scott Hansen said on RedZone, as two different teams went for two after scoring in that very situation late in the early games--mystifying the color commentators in both games as to why they wouldn't do the "safe" thing.

It seems counterintuitive to me, but upon reflection, I can see how this could be so.

Discuss.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

This issue came up a couple of times in the early games.

Apparently, "the book" says that if you are down by 14 points in the 4th quarter and you score a TD, your odds of winning the game actually go up slightly if you go for 2, rather than kicking the extra point.  At least, that's what Scott Hansen said on RedZone, as two different teams went for two after scoring in that very situation late in the early games--mystifying the color commentators in both games as to why they wouldn't do the "safe" thing.

It seems counterintuitive to me, but upon reflection, I can see how this could be so.

Discuss.

It doe seem counter-intuitive but down 14 you can still win with 2 TD scores. It may, on average, be much less likely one can get 3 unanswered scores (2 tds and a fg).

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I believe the reasoning is that teams make the 2-pt conversion 51% of the time.  So, if you're down 14, the odds state that you're going to make 1 of the 2.  With that being the case, if you miss on the first try, you're likely to make it on the second.  But, if you make the first one, then you're only down 6, and the TD + XP gets you the win.

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19 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I believe the reasoning is that teams make the 2-pt conversion 51% of the time.

If this is the case, then the rule should be to go for 2 every time to maximize your expected total XPs.

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43 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

If this is the case, then the rule should be to go for 2 every time to maximize your expected total XPs.

They’ve done studies you know. 60

percent of the time, it works every time.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

With that being the case, if you miss on the first try, you're likely to make it on the second. 

Missing the first 2pt conversion has absolutely no bearing on the chances of making the second conversion.  

Really I guess you could say that each subsequent 2pt conversion no matter what the previous result was should be slightly less effective since you've shown the defense one of your 2 pt conversion plays.  That, of course, assumes your plays don't all have counter actions to them like they should if you're a professional coach. Ie., every play you have should have multiple actions that balance out from of the exact same formation and personnel grouping.  

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5 hours ago, nobody said:

Missing the first 2pt conversion has absolutely no bearing on the chances of making the second conversion.  

Really I guess you could say that each subsequent 2pt conversion no matter what the previous result was should be slightly less effective since you've shown the defense one of your 2 pt conversion plays.  That, of course, assumes your plays don't all have counter actions to them like they should if you're a professional coach. Ie., every play you have should have multiple actions that balance out from of the exact same formation and personnel grouping.  

Directly, no it doesn't, but statistically speaking, they will make one out of two.

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It looks like 4 games was enough for DEF to figure out what they're suppose to do. Without any pre season to learn the schemes i think most DEF will improve for next week. Of course, there will always be teams that think offense is way more important than DEF. Dallas, Atlanta, SEA without the home crowd 12th man. It's not going to be so easy for our studs to go off for the rest of the season.

Hell, maybe even MIN has turned the corner....

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Redskins RB Antonio Gibson is looking like a legit starting RB.

That's Washington REDSKINS RB. 

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I'm looking to hopefully swing a deal for Stefon Diggs.  Wanted him in the draft but missed out.  He looked great again this week and is only gaining a stronger bond which Allen.  I've always liked Diggs and thought he was a better WR than Minnesota allowed him to be, and from everything I've read he loves playing for the Bills.  Just a gut feeling but I think he's going to be top 10 at the end of the year.  

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25 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Redskins RB Antonio Gibson is looking like a legit starting RB.

That's Washington REDSKINS RB. 

He was on our wire....dropped Hines for him. Only a bye week backup but could turn into more.

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51 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Redskins RB Antonio Gibson is looking like a legit starting RB.

That's Washington REDSKINS RB. 

I have him in 2 leagues as a bench stash along with Swift & Kelley. I might have to start Gibson vs LAR over M. Sanders vs PIT next week

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Another good pick up , J Jackson of the Chargers.  

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1 hour ago, lod001 said:

Redskins RB Antonio Gibson is looking like a legit starting RB.

That's Washington REDSKINS RB. 

That was only because he faced me, proceed with caution.

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18 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

That was only because he faced me, proceed with caution.

Averages 12pts a game.....thats a decent bench stash.

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2 hours ago, lod001 said:

Redskins RB Antonio Gibson is looking like a legit starting RB.

That's Washington REDSKINS RB. 

Hail to the Redskins!
Hail Victory!
Braves on the Warpath!
Fight for old D.C.!
Run or pass and score—We want a lot more!
Beat 'em, Swamp 'em,
Touchdown! -- Let the points soar!
Fight on, fight on 'Til you have won
Sons of Wash-ing-ton. Rah!, Rah!, Rah!
Hail to the Redskins!
Hail Victory!
Braves on the Warpath!
Fight for old D.C.!

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3 hours ago, posty said:

Hail to the Redskins!
Hail Victory!
Braves on the Warpath!
Fight for old D.C.!
Run or pass and score—We want a lot more!
Beat 'em, Swamp 'em,
Touchdown! -- Let the points soar!
Fight on, fight on 'Til you have won
Sons of Wash-ing-ton. Rah!, Rah!, Rah!
Hail to the Redskins!
Hail Victory!
Braves on the Warpath!
Fight for old D.C.!

🙄

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if I get #1 pick in redraft - I WILL DRAFT DERRICK HENRY -- Screw these little scatbacks  with "great upside" ... DH is best NON QB player in FFB.

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15 minutes ago, robocardz said:

if I get #1 pick in redraft - I WILL DRAFT DERRICK HENRY -- Screw these little scatbacks  with "great upside" ... DH is best NON QB player in FFB.

Now, did Axe Elf draft him in 4 out of 5 leagues because he is the best non QB player in FFB, or is he the best non QB player in FFB because Axe Elf drafted him in 4 out of 5 leagues?

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