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justforbeer

Taysom Hill, if he ends up being the starting quarterback?

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I wonder if ESPN will change his status from being a tight end to only qb.

If not, having him as your TE might be of some value. 

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I just saw him on the waiver wire earlier on ESPN, he's listed as a TE, QB, so he can be both.

That would be crazy if he starts at QB and you could play him at TE

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3 minutes ago, polecatt said:

I just saw him on the waiver wire earlier on ESPN, he's listed as a TE, QB, so he can be both.

That would be crazy if he starts at QB and you could play him at TE

I was thinking of that as well, but unfortunately, yahoo lists him as a QB.

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39 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

I was thinking of that as well, but unfortunately, yahoo lists him as a QB.

I'm scooping him up just for that possible scenario

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What if you start him at te, and espn changes his position to Qb? 

Would you still get the points at the te postition? 

 

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

What if you start him at te, and espn changes his position to Qb? 

Would you still get the points at the te postition? 

 

If they change that before the game it will automatically move him to the bench if he's in the TE slot

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15 hours ago, justforbeer said:

I wonder if ESPN will change his status from being a tight end to only qb.

If not, having him as your TE might be of some value. 

Why would they change it?  His role isn't changing.

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Berry just stated that they will not change it and he will be available as a tight end this weekend. I have Goddert and TE has been a nightmare for me this year. Ertz was my pic and it’s been a total bust.

Need the win so Going for ultimate strategy this week. 

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WEEK 11 PROJECTION
5points
With Drew Brees out of New Orleans' NFC South showdown with Atlanta, Hill could be used as more than a gadget option. As such, Week 11 presents a unique chance to take advantage of Hill's TE eligibility as an upside play, especially if he ultimately sees a lot of time taking snaps as the team's quarterback. Fantasy managers should take note that ESPN Fantasy has made the decision to allow Hill to be eligible at quarterback in addition to his prior TE eligibility for Week 11, with future modifications possible should his playing situation become more clear going forward.

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28 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

He doesn't actually seem like a horrible passer:

https://www.nfl.com/videos/watch-every-nfl-pass-from-taysom-hill-2017-19

Which kinda surprises me that he has 5 pass attempts compared to 34 rushing attempts this year.

It's because when he takes a snap, if his first/only read isn't wide open, he tucks and runs.  He doesn't actually try to throw the ball.

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Hill's role isn't changing.  If you want to take a shot in the dark that he scores a TD... he only has 2 this year, have at it.  Otherwise, he'll still probably only get you around 5 points or less.  In his 9 games this year, only 3 are over 5.5 points.

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Picked him up in one league where I have Hockenson....probably not going with Taysom over him, but in my other have Goedert debating this but waiting to see through the week if we get any indication from Sean Payton on playing time as they have already said Winston will start but Hill will be "sprinkled" in

 

Playing HIll would be a gamble but I'd rather have him on my roster if I had the space than letting any other teams have him if he were to go off for a few weeks with TE eligibility

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

It's because when he takes a snap, if his first/only read isn't wide open, he tucks and runs.  He doesn't actually try to throw the ball.

 

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Hill's role isn't changing.  If you want to take a shot in the dark that he scores a TD... he only has 2 this year, have at it.  Otherwise, he'll still probably only get you around 5 points or less.  In his 9 games this year, only 3 are over 5.5 points.

I would think that he'd probably throw a few more passes with Brees out though, no?

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Bottomline is that he's a fantastic start in ESPN leagues until (if) they change his designation as a TE. In all other leagues where he is listed as a QB, he is unstartable.

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13 minutes ago, stonewall said:

Bottomline is that he's a fantastic start in ESPN leagues until (if) they change his designation as a TE. In all other leagues where he is listed as a QB, he is unstartable.

Well I think TBay is arguing he'll only get about 5 points, which wouldn't be a fantastic start even for a TE.

However he failed to mention that 2 of his "3 games over 5.5 points" have come in the past 3 weeks.   Through the first 6 games he never had more 3 carries.  The last 3 he's had 5, 7 and 8 respectively.   And conventional wisdom seems to indicate that with Brees out, he'll likely be even more involved.

ESPN's notes for him do say "ESPN Fantasy has made the decision to allow Hill to be eligible at quarterback in addition to his prior TE eligibility for Week 11, with future modifications possible should his playing situation become more clear going forward."   Is that saying they could potentially take away the TE designation in the future?

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30 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I would think that he'd probably throw a few more passes with Brees out though, no?

I don't think so.  I think Hill is less likely to throw more passes.  As a "thrower", Winston is clearly head and shoulder better than Brees.  There's less of a reason to have someone else throw passes.  That said, it doesn't mean that the Saints won't do it just to mix crap in based on the matchups, but I think that's more matchup driven than who the person under center is.  Even if Hill does throw more passes... how many are you thinking?  He's only attempted what, 5 or 6 in the first 9 games... you think he's going to average 5 or 6 with Winston under center?  If he's say 3 for 5 for 50 yards, that's 2 points.  Odds are, if he ran those 5 times, he'd probably would have gotten about 20 yards rushing.  That's only a reallocation of points, it's not more points.  Like rushing or receiving though, it'll all come down to TD's.  Does he pass, run, or catch one... that's what will make him a viable starter.  Even then, it's probably not much better than what someone else will give you.

There are 17 TE's who are averaging at least 9 points per game.  Hill is averaging 5.  If he gets more points because of passing (which as I said, I don't really think he will), but if he does, then give him 4 more points.  That's still in the ball park of the back end of TE's.  As I said above, you're only ahead if he scores.  There's nothing wrong with the gamble, but I think you'd have to sit down and think about what is the most likely scenario.  I think to actually "win" the gamble, you'll need 2 TD's from Hill or just a flat out significant role increase.  I can see the former happening, not the latter.

To me, the person whom will benefit, is Latvious Murray.  I think he ends up getting a lot more playing time because Winston isn't that good at check downs.  Brees thrives on that.  It's why Kamara is what he is.  In order for the Saints to keep Kamara in rhythm, he's going to have to take more hand offs.  That means more hits by fat people than he's used too.  I think Murray's carries go up for that reason, meaning they're going to want to keep Kamara healthy.

Others who will benefit will be Thomas and Sanders (if he's healthy).  Winston's first 5 reads are always WR1, WR2, Int, sack, then the check down guys.  For that reason, I think the Saints run the ball more often (the reason I say Murray), but when they pass, it'll be Thomas and Sanders.  Every other receiver just became droppable.

As for Hill, he averaged 4 rush attempts per game, 1 target per game, and a half of a pass per game.  Let's keep all averages and say his role increases to gets 6 rush attempts (up from 3.8), 3 targets (up from 0.9), and 5 pass attempts (up from 0.7).  So, with a massive role increase, that'll equate to about 33 yards rushing, 2 receptions for 25 yards, and 85 yards passing.  That's 11.1 points which would put him in the top 7 in PPR leagues for TE's.  I think that's an overly aggressive projection.  I think at most, he falls between that and what he's doing (at 5 fpg), so that would put him at 8 points.  That's TE25.  Again, the make/break point is whether he scores a TD.

Why do I say this?  Because last year in games 3 through 7 with Bridgewater under center, Hill's role was slightly less than in Weeks 13 through 17 with Brees.  Bridgewater is not as talented as Winston.  He's a better QB, but he's not a better passer.  If anything, I'd think Hill's rushing numbers go up, not his passing.  Sure, that'll increase his point total, but again, how much?  I don't think all that much because I expect Murray to be the biggest beneficiary.

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16 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Well I think TBay is arguing he'll only get about 5 points, which wouldn't be a fantastic start even for a TE.

Yes, I think he'll be around his average.  NO, 5 points is NOT "fantastic" for a TE.  On average, 38 TE's get at least 5 points per week.

 

16 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

However he failed to mention that 2 of his "3 games over 5.5 points" have come in the past 3 weeks.   Through the first 6 games he never had more 3 carries.  The last 3 he's had 5, 7 and 8 respectively.   And conventional wisdom seems to indicate that with Brees out, he'll likely be even more involved.

This goes more to what I said in my prior post about being a "matchup" decision, not a "who's under center" decision.  If you look at last year, Hill's production was decent with Bridewater, the went down after Brees came back for a few weeks, then it went up again.  This year, it's kind of down, until in recent weeks.  It's matchup related, not "QB" related.  Now, if you and Payton both agree on matchups, then you'll probably be fine that week.  If you think more highly of the situation than Payton, then you're looking at 2 or 3 points... unless he scores a TD.

 

16 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

ESPN's notes for him do say "ESPN Fantasy has made the decision to allow Hill to be eligible at quarterback in addition to his prior TE eligibility for Week 11, with future modifications possible should his playing situation become more clear going forward."   Is that saying they could potentially take away the TE designation in the future?

I think people are asking about this because everyone knows that Winston is a crappy QB and think that Payton will use Hill more.  I don't.  I think they just run more.  I don't think Hill will throw all that much unless Payton likes that matchup.  It's possible that this may benefit Hill.  In their next 3 games, they play Atlanta twice.  Last year in the 2 games against Atlanta, Hill had 3 rush attempts for 44 yards (25% of his season total), with 3 receptions and 15 yards and 2 TD's, 2 pass attempts for 17 yards.  That's an average of 10.8 fpg.  To note, Hill had over 50 yards rushing against Atlanta in their 2 meetings in 2018... that constitutes for 25% of his production that season as well.

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33 minutes ago, stonewall said:

Bottomline is that he's a fantastic start in ESPN leagues until (if) they change his designation as a TE. In all other leagues where he is listed as a QB, he is unstartable.

I don't agree.  You're gambling on TD's.  Now, if you want to do that, I'm all for the gamble... but that doesn't mean he's a "fantastic start".  On average, 25 TE's get at least 8 fantasy points per week.  Hill is averaging 5.  If he gets 9, that still puts him outside the top 15.  To me, that's not a "fantastic start".

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14 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

As for Hill, he averaged 4 rush attempts per game, 1 target per game, and a half of a pass per game.  Let's keep all averages and say his role increases to gets 6 rush attempts (up from 3.8), 3 targets (up from 0.9), and 5 pass attempts (up from 0.7).  So, with a massive role increase, that'll equate to about 33 yards rushing, 2 receptions for 25 yards, and 85 yards passing.  That's 11.1 points which would put him in the top 7 in PPR leagues for TE's.  I think that's an overly aggressive projection.  I think at most, he falls between that and what he's doing (at 5 fpg), so that would put him at 8 points.  That's TE25.  Again, the make/break point is whether he scores a TD.

I agree I don't necessarily think he's a league winner or anything, but I don't see how he's not a Top 10 TE the rest of the way.

Your 11.1 points math is not even including any TD's.   So even if you take that down to 8 (something like 30 yards rushing, 1 rec for 20 yards, 50 yards passing) and he gets 1 TD every 3 games, that's 9.3 (if they're all passing TD's)-10 points on average.   But his last 2 games he's had 99 yards rushing so the rushing number could be low.   And of course if he gets more pass attempts that also gives him more chances for TD's.

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Taysom Hill is averaging 4.16 fantasy points per game.  This would make him the TE44, just ahead of Nick Boyle and Donald Parham, Jr.

Goldmine!

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9 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Taysom Hill is averaging 4.16 fantasy points per game.  This would make him the TE44, just ahead of Nick Boyle and Donald Parham, Jr.

Goldmine!

But he looks so much cooler doing it!

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44 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I agree I don't necessarily think he's a league winner or anything, but I don't see how he's not a Top 10 TE the rest of the way.

Your 11.1 points math is not even including any TD's.   So even if you take that down to 8 (something like 30 yards rushing, 1 rec for 20 yards, 50 yards passing) and he gets 1 TD every 3 games, that's 9.3 (if they're all passing TD's)-10 points on average.   But his last 2 games he's had 99 yards rushing so the rushing number could be low.   And of course if he gets more pass attempts that also gives him more chances for TD's.

I'm still not seeing him being used like you do.  As I said, the numbers to get him to 11.1 is overly aggressive.  I don't think he gets that increase.  I think the best case scenario is around 9 points.  That's the best case.  I think his normal 5 or less is what he'll continue to get.

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As unpredictable as my TE's have been (lost Kittle, and even he had several meh weeks), I still consider Hill a fantastic start in the TE slot in ESPN. Could he bust? Sure....like every TE with the possible exception of Kelce. When you have a guy that likely  rushes/passes/catches and is a familiar sight at the goal line....I'll take that upside any day, and twice on Sundays.

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Only real value is if Winston went down. Even with a couple of TD runs he's still meh. What's hurting him is that 2nd yr PB returner now a viable WR as I've stated. I'm a big Saints fan and that guy is becoming a thing.

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3 hours ago, stonewall said:

As unpredictable as my TE's have been (lost Kittle, and even he had several meh weeks), I still consider Hill a fantastic start in the TE slot in ESPN. Could he bust? Sure....like every TE with the possible exception of Kelce. When you have a guy that likely  rushes/passes/catches and is a familiar sight at the goal line....I'll take that upside any day, and twice on Sundays.

Darren Fells is probably available in your league too (4% rostered on Yahoo).  He's averaging 2.5 more PPR fantasy points per game than Taysom Hill, and has 3 TDs to Hill's 2.

If Hill is a "fantastic start" at TE, Fells is a set it and forget it all-star.

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11 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Darren Fells is probably available in your league too

As you know, there are two important issues here:

1. I assume that Fells doesn't rush the ball much, especially around the goal line, much less pass it.

2. I assume that Fells won't be taking any snaps under center this week.

As previously stated, not sure what to expect this weekend (along with everyone else, with the exception of Sean Payton), but since it's not beyond reason that Hill takes multiple snaps under center, and the TE position is basically a weekly crap shoot, I'm rolling with that upside in one of this week's highest scoring games, according to Vegas. I can live with 4 or 5 points from my TE this week, as I have done on multiple occasions this year, but very hopeful for more...maybe much more. We shall see. You can stick with Fells.

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Being able to have a player as a te on a ff team , that just so happens to also be a Qb, and the starting Qb isn’t playing, and to be able to slot him into the te slot, seems like a good ideal.  

 

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8 minutes ago, weepaws said:

....seems like a good ideal

Ideal, indeed.

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6 hours ago, stonewall said:

As you know, there are two important issues here:

1. I assume that Fells doesn't rush the ball much, especially around the goal line, much less pass it.

2. I assume that Fells won't be taking any snaps under center this week.

As I THOUGHT you would know, there's only one important issue here:

1.  Who scores the most fantasy football points.

As of Week 10, Fells scores 2.5 more PPR fantasy points per game than does Hill, and has 3 TDs to Hill's 2.

So if Hill is ideal, Fells is perfection.

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4 hours ago, weepaws said:

Being able to have a player as a te on a ff team , that just so happens to also be a Qb, and the starting Qb isn’t playing, and to be able to slot him into the te slot, seems like a good ideal.  

 

:thumbsup:This.

but ESPN should know better.  TE?  Really? 

I think you gotta grab him off waivers just in case he does play.  if he does, you plug him in at TE and you are off to the races,

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7 hours ago, Ray_T said:

:thumbsup:This.

but ESPN should know better.  TE?  Really? 

I think you gotta grab him off waivers just in case he does play.  if he does, you plug him in at TE and you are off to the races,

I actually think they have it right and any other website who doesn't have him labeled as a TE (or WR), is wrong.  In his career, Hill has thrown the ball 18 times (3 seasons/46 games).  In that same time frame he's had 98 rush attempts and 37 pass targets/28 receptions. If you assume that in every rush attempt, that he lined up under center (even though we know he didn't), that would mean he lined up under center 106 times in his career.  Well, he's been on the field for 573 snaps, which means he lined up as a WR/TE 463 times.  Why would it be fair to call him a QB?  He's more likely to line up outside 4 times more often than under center.

 

Here's a link from back in February, so it doesn't count this year, but here's where he's lineup up in his first 2 seasons.  If you take away his special teams snaps, he's taken only 15.5% of his snaps from under center.  I can see where he should be listed as a WR, because between outside and slot, he's taken 43% of his snaps there, while only 32.2% from the TE position.  I guess the argument could be made that TE's line up in the slot often as well.  If you assume that 50% of his snaps he's considered a WR and the other 50% as TE, then his snap % would be 45.8% TE, 30.3% WR, 15.5% QB, and 8.3% RB.

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Look at his numbers when Brees went down last year what 5 games? That would be a decent measuring stick. Off memory, seems like they used him less being down to two QB's.

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10 minutes ago, FlyinHeadlock said:

Look at his numbers when Brees went down last year what 5 games? That would be a decent measuring stick. Off memory, seems like they used him less being down to two QB's.

In weeks 3 through 7 (Bridgewater's 5 starts), he was on the field for 49 (offensive), snaps.  In the last 5 games of the season, he was on the field for 117 snaps.  It's why I said above that people's expectations are entirely too high.

 

With Bridgewater, an average of 10 snaps per game, but with Brees at the end of the season, 23.4 snaps per game.  An argument could be made that with experience comes more playing time... but this year, in the first 9 games, he's only averaging 16.6 snaps per game.

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2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

In weeks 3 through 7 (Bridgewater's 5 starts), he was on the field for 49 (offensive), snaps.  In the last 5 games of the season, he was on the field for 117 snaps.  It's why I said above that people's expectations are entirely too high.

Yeah, going off history no freakin way you can start him. Payton can't have his only two QB's on the field like that. Coach does some crazy stuff but he ain't that crazy. 

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4 minutes ago, FlyinHeadlock said:

Yeah, going off history no freakin way you can start him. Payton can't have his only two QB's on the field like that. Coach does some crazy stuff but he ain't that crazy. 

Exactly.  I think the most likely scenario is that Hill gets less playing time, not more.  Barring TD's, he's probably only going to get about 3 fantasy points per week... maybe.

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