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The Football Guru

Final All Out Blitz of the season ...

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Hey all,

If you have a question you'd like me to analyze and answer for Week 16 Blitz, please submit them here or via Twitter (@DougOrth) before 5 pm ET on Wednesday.

Please include how you'd like your name to be posted and any scoring system particulars that could make a difference.

Also, if you have a waiver-wire dilemma that you want to be answered before Thursday morning/afternoon, I'll do my best to address those questions here.

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Championship week - let's go!

Week 16 Blitz - picked up George Kittle as soon as I heard he was activated off of IR.  If he is cleared for this week, how confident are you to put into lineups?  I've been playing the TE #12-15 carousel all year picking wrong between players such as Cook and Shultz.  If he isn't cleared, who's your sneakiest mid-round TE pick for this weekend?

WW Question:  Let's talk QBs.  I may have too much of a good thing...need to choose between Murray, Herbert, or Hurts for the $$ round.  I'm leaning Murray as the safe pick, but as a Cowboys fan, I can see Hurts having a historic day against them.

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51 minutes ago, joeH said:

WW Question:  Let's talk QBs.  I may have too much of a good thing...need to choose between Murray, Herbert, or Hurts for the $$ round.  I'm leaning Murray as the safe pick, but as a Cowboys fan, I can see Hurts having a historic day against them.

Yeah, I see your problem. There's no way I can imagine benching Murray barring a mid-week addition to the injury report. I agree Hurts might have the highest upside given his matchup, but it's just as possible Pederson uses a matchup vs. the Cowboys to get his rushing attack going.

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49 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

Yeah, I see your problem. There's no way I can imagine benching Murray barring a mid-week addition to the injury report. I agree Hurts might have the highest upside given his matchup, but it's just as possible Pederson uses a matchup vs. the Cowboys to get his rushing attack going.

Appreciate your insight!

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16 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Yeah, I see your problem. There's no way I can imagine benching Murray barring a mid-week addition to the injury report. I agree Hurts might have the highest upside given his matchup, but it's just as possible Pederson uses a matchup vs. the Cowboys to get his rushing attack going.

What about if Murray was eliminated from the question and the decision is between Hurts and Herbert?  Denver looked pretty bad on D vs. Buffalo but the LAC WRs are probably still banged up. Hurts vs. Dallas is an appealing matchup too. 

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While I was able to light up the scoreboard this week thanks to my WRs, TE, and QB, my RBs are limping badly and I'm going to need to roll with 1 or two waiver wire guys. Luckily for me, there are a few tasty options out there. What do you recommend?

Currently Rostered (Start 2 - limit 4 RBs + 1 IR slot): Miles Sanders, Lynn Bowden, Mixon (IR), Ronald Jones (IR), Myles Gaskin (IR). 

I'm not sure who will still be on IR come game-day, but I'm assuming Mixon is being held out for the rest of the year. Waivers run tomorrow, so I'm thinking that I need to drop Bowden and Mixon and pick up 2 of these guys and make final starting choices come gametime. Would love to see how you have them ranked. Here's how I rank them for pickup priority:

Le'Veon Bell (Pretty sure Edwards-Helaire is out, so it's the Bell show?)

Tony Pollard (Would have him higher, but I'm feeling like Zeke has a good chance of playing?)

Salvon Ahmed (Wow...kid went off, but does Gaskin come back in time to make it a muddled mess?)

Benny Snell 

 

Thank you,

The Buddha

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On 12/21/2020 at 6:59 PM, joeH said:

Championship week - let's go!

Week 16 Blitz - picked up George Kittle as soon as I heard he was activated off of IR.  If he is cleared for this week, how confident are you to put into lineups?  I've been playing the TE #12-15 carousel all year picking wrong between players such as Cook and Shultz.  If he isn't cleared, who's your sneakiest mid-round TE pick for this weekend?

"Mid-round pick" is a tricky term. I rarely look at other people's rankings and don't do my own per se, so it's dangerous for me to assume who you might have in mind or who might be available.

Are you asking me about players that were drafted after the first five tight ends this summer OR about current low-end TE1s now such as Noah Fant or Schultz? I mean Hockenson was a later round pick this summer who is no longer viewed that way.

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15 hours ago, uwmalcolm said:

What about if Murray was eliminated from the question and the decision is between Hurts and Herbert?  Denver looked pretty bad on D vs. Buffalo but the LAC WRs are probably still banged up. Hurts vs. Dallas is an appealing matchup too. 

Yeah, I think the case you make is the clincher for Hurts. I have this exact decision in an industry league championship game this week and will be rolling with Hurts. Herbert is not running as much as I expected.

Combined with Allen and Williams ailing, I can't play him over a guy with a 60-yard rushing floor and a solid matchup. Plus, I will almost always have a healthy respect for a Vic Fangio defense and the fact this will be his second look at Herbert.

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9 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

"Mid-round pick" is a tricky term. I rarely look at other people's rankings and don't do my own per se, so it's dangerous for me to assume who you might have in mind or who might be available.

Are you asking me about players that were drafted after the first five tight ends this summer OR about current low-end TE1s now such as Noah Fant or Schultz? I mean Hockenson was a later round pick this summer who is no longer viewed that way.

 

Sorry if I wasn't clear.  I'm looking for a streaming TE currently in the #12 - #20 range who has the best chance to put up decent numbers and/or score.  I've been playing around all season with a carousel of Shultz, Cook, Smith, Ertz (after his return) without luck,  and right now I'm thinking about playing Akins against the Bengals.

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Hello mr Guru. 

I have. 

B Cooks, S Michel, T Lockett, Kittle, Hockensen, E Sanders. 

I need a wr2 and a flex and te.  

Non ppr.  

Right now I have penciled in B Cooks , Hockensen, and Michel, and I’m favorite to win my ten. 

Thank you. 

Merry Christmas to you and yours.  

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On 12/22/2020 at 2:43 PM, dpbuddha said:

While I was able to light up the scoreboard this week thanks to my WRs, TE, and QB, my RBs are limping badly and I'm going to need to roll with 1 or two waiver wire guys. Luckily for me, there are a few tasty options out there. What do you recommend?

Currently Rostered (Start 2 - limit 4 RBs + 1 IR slot): Miles Sanders, Lynn Bowden, Mixon (IR), Ronald Jones (IR), Myles Gaskin (IR). 

I'm not sure who will still be on IR come game-day, but I'm assuming Mixon is being held out for the rest of the year. Waivers run tomorrow, so I'm thinking that I need to drop Bowden and Mixon and pick up 2 of these guys and make final starting choices come gametime. Would love to see how you have them ranked. Here's how I rank them for pickup priority:

Le'Veon Bell (Pretty sure Edwards-Helaire is out, so it's the Bell show?)

Tony Pollard (Would have him higher, but I'm feeling like Zeke has a good chance of playing?)

Salvon Ahmed (Wow...kid went off, but does Gaskin come back in time to make it a muddled mess?)

Benny Snell 

 

Thank you,

The Buddha

Based on what I've seen so far, Jones won't be eligible to practice before Saturday (which is obviously a problem since the Bucs play on Saturday). I highly doubt Mixon is coming back either. Those would be my drops.

So many unknowns with the waiver pickup priorities:

CEH is out, so Bell would be your best bet for a solid floor. He'd probably be my top-ranked guy here even though I don't think he has much left in the tank.

Zeke seems to believe he's playing this week, so Pollard would be my last-ranked priority.

Ahmed would probably be my #2, but it's more of a science call than a fantasy football one. Gaskin actually tested positive for COVID, and the instances of players returning from a positive diagnosis has not been great. I could easily see Ahmed getting more carries than Gaskin.

Conner also sounds like he is going to be back. Either way, the only way I'm playing a PIT RB is if DeForest Buckner is ruled out. 

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Please help me decide who to start.  PPR

 

Need to pick 2 of the following players to start 

 

Jeff Wilson

Kenyan Drake

Melvin Gordon

David Johnson

 

Thanks in advance

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Guru, late to the party I know need 2 in half ppr. Jeff Wilson, James Robinson, Emmanuel Sanders, Kareem Hunt. Thanks and good luck to your championship aspirations.

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1/2 pt PPR, 6pt TD League.

Which TWO of these RBs should I start:

  • Salvon Ahmed
  • Myles Gaskin (assuming he's playing)
  • Tony Pollard
  • Malcolm Brown

Which one of these TEs:

  • Zach Ertz
  • Mike Gesicki
  • Cole Khmet
  • George Kittle (if he plays)

Thanks!

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Thank you, great job Guru, and thank you for sharing, I’m sorry about the passing of your mom. 

 

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Dear Guru,

I'm in the championship game of my 16 team league.  Do I continue to roll out Cousins against a tough Saints Defense in New Orleans?  Or consider the likes of Minshew, Mariota or Drew Lock?

I like Lock as having a higher ceiling...

What is your greatness's advice?

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9 hours ago, weepaws said:

Thank you, great job Guru, and thank you for sharing, I’m sorry about the passing of your mom. 

 

I second these thoughts. Thanks for sharing, Doug...it helps bring perspective to everything.
 

Great job with all the fantasy advice as always. Your input is greatly appreciated! 

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15 hours ago, BuschWack said:

Dear Guru,

I'm in the championship game of my 16 team league.  Do I continue to roll out Cousins against a tough Saints Defense in New Orleans?  Or consider the likes of Minshew, Mariota or Drew Lock?

I like Lock as having a higher ceiling...

What is your greatness's advice?

Ugh. As much as I really don't want to recommend Cousins, I think I like him more than any of your other options. He's got the most difficult matchup, but he also has the best weapons.

I know Lock did well for fantasy purposes in the first meeting vs. LAC, but he's really only had one solid full game this year (Carolina) and he's only topped 15 fantasy points (six points/passing TD) three of 11 times this season.

Congrats on getting this far and good luck.

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17 hours ago, jrokh said:

Guru, late to the party I know need 2 in half ppr. Jeff Wilson, James Robinson, Emmanuel Sanders, Kareem Hunt. Thanks and good luck to your championship aspirations.

Sanders doesn't have enough realistic upside (I mean anything can happen, but I'm not sure he's going off for 120 and 2 this afternoon) to play him over the RBs. I think Wilson is a solid start and Robinson has to be the other starter if he is active. Hunt's not a bad fallback option. The Jets actually aren't a great matchup for traditional RBs but have given up the fourth-most catches to the position.

I'd still go with Wilson and Robinson b/c they should have something resembling workhorse roles this week. 

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4 hours ago, Gratefulegg1973 said:

Ok I have a few:

Metcalf (vs Jalen Ramsey) or Adam '3 target' Thielen

Hilton vs Mclaurin vs Thielen

James Robinson vs Jeff Wilson vs James Connor

I have wilson/robinson and I am starting wilson 

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4 hours ago, Gratefulegg1973 said:

Ok I have a few:

Metcalf (vs Jalen Ramsey) or Adam '3 target' Thielen

Hilton vs Mclaurin vs Thielen

James Robinson vs Jeff Wilson vs James Connor

I know the "safe" play is Metcalf given his talent, but we know he is going to see Ramsey probably at least 70 percent of the time. The Rams' other CBs are no slouches either, so you have to hope they play a lot of zone. I can see a scenario in which Lattimore keeps Jefferson somewhat in check, meaning a decent game for Thielen.

Thielen again. Hilton has Pittsburgh and McLaurin is trending toward not playing.

Wilson by a hair over Robinson. I don't feel great about it and Robinson says he's "fine," but I'll take a Shanahan back likely to get 15-18 touches over an injured stud.

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15 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Ugh. As much as I really don't want to recommend Cousins, I think I like him more than any of your other options. He's got the most difficult matchup, but he also has the best weapons.

I know Lock did well for fantasy purposes in the first meeting vs. LAC, but he's really only had one solid full game this year (Carolina) and he's only topped 15 fantasy points (six points/passing TD) three of 11 times this season.

Congrats on getting this far and good luck.

Thank you Guru.  Started Cousins and Irv Smith Jr.  

Off to a great start!

 

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Thank you Guru, I started Sanders in the flex non ppr, he scored 9.5 points, great start for me , best showing from my flex play this season.  

 

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3 hours ago, weepaws said:

Thank you Guru, I started Sanders in the flex non ppr, he scored 9.5 points, great start for me , best showing from my flex play this season.  

 

👍

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On 12/24/2020 at 12:56 PM, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

1/2 pt PPR, 6pt TD League.

Which TWO of these RBs should I start:

  • Salvon Ahmed
  • Myles Gaskin (assuming he's playing)
  • Tony Pollard
  • Malcolm Brown

Which one of these TEs:

  • Zach Ertz
  • Mike Gesicki
  • Cole Khmet
  • George Kittle (if he plays)

Thanks!

I think I'm on an island with the Miami RBs this weekend, but I could see Ahmed taking the lead role this week to let Gaskin ease back in (or an RBBC at the very least). COVID has not been kind to player's respiratory systems. I would be surprised if we don't get some kind of report from a Miami beat writer before game time.

Given Detroit's coaching situation this weekend, I'm actually playing Kittle ahead of TJ Hockenson. I like him better than everyone else here as well.

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On 12/24/2020 at 12:15 PM, fbqueso said:

Please help me decide who to start.  PPR

 

Need to pick 2 of the following players to start 

 

Jeff Wilson

Kenyan Drake

Melvin Gordon

David Johnson

 

Thanks in advance

If Edmonds is a surprise inactive, I'd probably go Drake and Gordon. If not, Wilson and Gordon. I think Gordon has benefited from some good luck lately, but he's set up for a full workload this week with Lindsay out and Freeman hurting too.

Good luck.

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Darn it, I listen with Sanders, but darn I didn’t with Kittle.  

I sat him for Hockensen.  

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Guru,

Since James Robinson has been ruled out, I need to start one of these three in the flex spot.  

Dare Ogunbowale (Robinson's backup)  

Ito Smith

Chad Hansen

What does the Guru's gut say?

 

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1 pt ppr 2 pts every 10 yds 2 to flex:

choices:

marvin hall James Connor ogunbowale ito smith Mooney or gayton

im inclined to roll hall v Jets and Connor 

ogunbowale should be fresh tho

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4 hours ago, DrG said:

1 pt ppr 2 pts every 10 yds 2 to flex:

choices:

marvin hall James Connor ogunbowale ito smith Mooney or gayton

im inclined to roll hall v Jets and Connor 

ogunbowale should be fresh tho

Man, that's a tough group to pick two from. My inclination is to go with Hall and Mooney, but both of them are more of the big play or bust type.

Conner would have been an easier call earlier this year, but I have very little faith in what Pittsburgh is doing offensively outside of forcing the ball to Diontae Johnson.

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Ok I have a few more:

1.  We start 3 WR/TEs, (so you can have 3 TEs and 0 WRs).  Not that this'll matter since I was Kamara'd, but would you go Robby Anderson or Logan Thomas?  Obviously I need upside.

2.  Have to decide between Mike Davis/Zeke/Pollard.  

And if anybody in the GB area can kindly kidnap Rodgers and Jones just for the night, it would be much appreciated

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