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jrokh

Jonathan Taylor- Wisconsin Rookie RB Stud

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241 yards rushing 2 Td's a new Colts single game rushing record. Since week 13 Taylor has been a top 5 fantasy back. Guess we can retire the Wisconsin RB Fallacy for all time...

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For now. 

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3 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Nope.

Well tripling down on stupidity instead of admitting being wrong is in lock step with the Buccaneers organization...

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An integral part of the Wisconsin RB legacy is that they usually do better in their second and subsequent years than they did in their rookie years.  So Taylor is just taking the road of Melvin Gordon and Ron Dayne, but taking it a few games early.

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He was the number 1 RB in the draft. Not to sure why CEH got all the hype.

 

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Because CEH was drafted by KC, and that high scoring offense. 

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3 hours ago, Kopy said:

He was the number 1 RB in the draft. Not to sure why CEH got all the hype.

 

A couple reasons.  #1. There was no other back in KC to challenge Hellaire for touches and KC had a high octane offense.  #2. Taylor was at best, the #2RB in Indy and had a new QB were likely to try and throw more.

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4 hours ago, Kopy said:

He was the number 1 RB in the draft. Not to sure why CEH got all the hype.

 

KC is the only reason. Most people who watch College Football knew Taylor was the better talent...

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FANTASY football is about opportunity.  Hellaire had it and Taylor didn't.  If Mack didn't get hurt in Week 1, Taylor isn't a thing this year.  People quickly forget that Mack almost had 1,100 yards last year.  At best, the Indy backfield would have been a 50/50 split had Mack stayed healthy.

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29 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

FANTASY football is about opportunity.  Hellaire had it and Taylor didn't.  If Mack didn't get hurt in Week 1, Taylor isn't a thing this year.  People quickly forget that Mack almost had 1,100 yards last year.  At best, the Indy backfield would have been a 50/50 split had Mack stayed healthy.

Maybe, maybe not.  CEH did prove to be over rated, and not worthy of his round one ff pick. 

But im not so sure Taylor wouldn’t have surpassed Mack as the season continued, that’s a tough one to answer.  

 

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29 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Maybe, maybe not.  CEH did prove to be over rated, and not worthy of his round one ff pick. 

But im not so sure Taylor wouldn’t have surpassed Mack as the season continued, that’s a tough one to answer.  

 

Possibly.  Maybe there shouldn't have been such a gap in their ADP's, but CEH definitely deserved to be drafted higher based on the situations.   

And Kopy, what do you mean #1 RB in the draft?   CEH was the first RB drafted, and D'Andre Swift was the second also before Taylor (and Swift's ADP also suffered when it was announced Kerryon Johnson was supposedly going to be the starter along with ADP on the team as well - but most people seemed to agree that Swift would take over eventually).

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50 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Maybe, maybe not.  CEH did prove to be over rated, and not worthy of his round one ff pick. 

But im not so sure Taylor wouldn’t have surpassed Mack as the season continued, that’s a tough one to answer.  

 

I don't disagree.  Just responding to the question posed by @Kopy

I think it's somewhat safe to say that Mack would have kept Taylor off the field enough to the extent that Taylor wouldn't have garnered the bulk of the carries/touches.  Hines and Wilkins totaled 104 carries & 69 targets (173 total), in 2019 and 173 carries and 92 targets (265 total), this year.  Mack was able to keep Hines & Wilkens off the field last year, but Taylor wasn't able to this year.

Taylor appears to be a better pass catcher, so he probably could've eventually supplanted Hines as the 3rd down back.  But as the lead back, I don't think Taylor would have asserted any semblance of a dominating role.

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11 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Possibly.  Maybe there shouldn't have been such a gap in their ADP's, but CEH definitely deserved to be drafted higher based on the situations.   

And Kopy, what do you mean #1 RB in the draft?   CEH was the first RB drafted, and D'Andre Swift was the second also before Taylor (and Swift's ADP also suffered when it was announced Kerryon Johnson was supposedly going to be the starter along with ADP on the team as well - but most people seemed to agree that Swift would take over eventually).

Sorry. I should've clarified I was talking from a dynasty draft perspective as that's the type of league I play.

My rookie rankings usually go against the grain I will admitt.

But I had Taylor, Dobbins and Akers as my 1,2, and 3.

 

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I'm also still very high on Vaughn in Tampa. Vaughn at 4 over Swift and CEH doesn't look to good for me at this stage. But I trust my eyeballs when looking at draft classes, and accessing rookies. 

 

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1 minute ago, Kopy said:

Sorry. I should've clarified I was talking from a dynasty draft perspective as that's the type of league I play.

My rookie rankings usually go against the grain I will admitt.

But I had Taylor, Dobbins and Akers as my 1,2, and 3.

 

I had Swift and Hellaire (respectively), as #1 and #2 ahead of Taylor in my keeper league.  I think Dobbins is actually the best RB of the group, but I don't think that'll come to fruition in Baltimore because of Jackson.  I was never sold on Akers.

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2 hours ago, jrokh said:

KC is the only reason. Most people who watch College Football knew Taylor was the better talent...

Agreed. I always let talent trump situation when it comes to rookies. Granted it doesn't always come out it my favor. But I feel like I'm less wrong in the long run.

Which is why I'm going to continue to beat the drum for RB Vaughn in Tampa, and WR Van Jefferson in LA. Those kids are NFL players. EYEBALL TEST.

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3 minutes ago, Kopy said:

Agreed. I always let talent trump situation when it comes to rookies. Granted it doesn't always come out it my favor. But I feel like I'm less wrong in the long run.

Which is why I'm going to continue to beat the drum for RB Vaughn in Tampa, and WR Van Jefferson in LA. Those kids are NFL players. EYEBALL TEST.

Hope you're right about Vaughn.

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38 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Possibly.  Maybe there shouldn't have been such a gap in their ADP's, but CEH definitely deserved to be drafted higher based on the situations.   

And Kopy, what do you mean #1 RB in the draft?   CEH was the first RB drafted, and D'Andre Swift was the second also before Taylor (and Swift's ADP also suffered when it was announced Kerryon Johnson was supposedly going to be the starter along with ADP on the team as well - but most people seemed to agree that Swift would take over eventually).

Based on their situation, I agree. 

But CEH still gets my vote as the biggest bust.  

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48 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't disagree.  Just responding to the question posed by @Kopy

I think it's somewhat safe to say that Mack would have kept Taylor off the field enough to the extent that Taylor wouldn't have garnered the bulk of the carries/touches.  Hines and Wilkins totaled 104 carries & 69 targets (173 total), in 2019 and 173 carries and 92 targets (265 total), this year.  Mack was able to keep Hines & Wilkens off the field last year, but Taylor wasn't able to this year.

Taylor appears to be a better pass catcher, so he probably could've eventually supplanted Hines as the 3rd down back.  But as the lead back, I don't think Taylor would have asserted any semblance of a dominating role.

Last season was also Mack’s third season, this season was Taylor’s rookie season, not a surprise that Hines and Wilkins had more work then last season. 

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Just now, weepaws said:

Last season was also Mack’s third season, this season was Taylor’s rookie season, not a surprise that Hines and Wilkins had more work then last season. 

Agreed.  Thus more of a reason why I don't see how Taylor would have earned more touches than Mack over the course of the season.

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4 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Agreed.  Thus more of a reason why I don't see how Taylor would have earned more touches than Mack over the course of the season.

One doesn’t know, but I think Mack would have had more work early, but I think Taylor is the better overall player. 

And he would have gain more control of that rb1 position as the season went on, as Taylor learn more and the coaching staff became more comfortable with him. 

Anyway it’s a hard one to judge , we’ll never truly know.  

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50 minutes ago, weepaws said:

One doesn’t know, but I think Mack would have had more work early, but I think Taylor is the better overall player. 

And he would have gain more control of that rb1 position as the season went on, as Taylor learn more and the coaching staff became more comfortable with him. 

Anyway it’s a hard one to judge , we’ll never truly know.  

Fair enough.  Your point just comes across as recency bias.  Taylor didn't really do all that much more than what Mack did last year.  Give Mack a real QB instead of Jacoby Brissett, and it's possible that Taylor never even gets a chance.  With a garbage QB Mack ran for just under 1,100 yards and averaged 4.4 ypc in 2019.  In 2018, Mack averaged 4.7 ypc.  With a real threat under center, I think Mack would've seen the lion's share of carries.  As I said, at best, it would have been a 50/50 split.  I imagine it would have been closer to 60/40, in favor of Mack.

Next season will be interesting.  I wonder if they're going to just let Mack walk.  I think that could be a great thing for him.  Atlanta, Arizona, Houston, and Cincinnati could all be viable options.

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Next season will be interesting.  I wonder if they're going to just let Mack walk.

I wonder if they're going to just let Mack run...

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3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Fair enough.  Your point just comes across as recency bias.  Taylor didn't really do all that much more than what Mack did last year.  Give Mack a real QB instead of Jacoby Brissett, and it's possible that Taylor never even gets a chance.  With a garbage QB Mack ran for just under 1,100 yards and averaged 4.4 ypc in 2019.  In 2018, Mack averaged 4.7 ypc.  With a real threat under center, I think Mack would've seen the lion's share of carries.  As I said, at best, it would have been a 50/50 split.  I imagine it would have been closer to 60/40, in favor of Mack.

Next season will be interesting.  I wonder if they're going to just let Mack walk.  I think that could be a great thing for him.  Atlanta, Arizona, Houston, and Cincinnati could all be viable options.

Recency bias, yeah probably, but that’s why I’m on ff today, so I can recall wants happen in the past in ff. 

I think Mack is a good player, and could have been more productive last season with a Qb like Rivers. 

And I do think of Mack had indeed stayed healthy, he would have taken work from Taylor early on, I was targeting Mack more then I was Taylor, based on adp.  

But my recent memory of Taylor, is that in his first nine games, he avg 12 rush att , in his last six , he avg 19, that’s a coaching staff feeling comfortable with him.  

And I think that could have happen even with Mack around as the season went along. 

But don’t know for sure.  

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