England enters another lockdown

[Cdub100 3,370]

41 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Well I asked where you got your 99.9997 or whatever number you got from and you have yet to show me,

But yeah, I see your CDC link with data that is essentally meaningless,

I literally posted the link to the CDC numbers... Someone even gave you the formula to convert it to a percentage. 

What more do you want? If you can't understand it. That's fine I'll explain it, but don't say I didn't do the basic research for you.

[Mookz 1,287]

1 hour ago, lod001 said:

Now, the CDC has 301k "deaths INVOLVING Covid" which of course means, if you die of a car accident, they will test for covid to see if they hit the jackpot. If you die of a gunshot to the head, they will test you to see if you can help them boost their #s. Heart attack, hell yeah, you died of 'covid complications, no ifs ands or buts. Be a dead trooper and accept your covid death.

btw, of the 301k, 178000 are 75 and over. Guess how many of those people are already on their death bed....like all of them. On a somewhat related note, my nephew asked how old that woman (I can use that word here, right) is that hangs out at the bar at the golf course. I said you mean 'jane doe', he said yeah. I said I graduated with her. He goes, 'WTF, she looks like she's 80.' I said 'shes aging well then because 20 years ago, she looked 80'.   Covid would take her out so fast that Ebola would be jealous.

 

Can size of this eligible single lady?  

[Thornton Melon 542]

3 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I literally posted the link to the CDC numbers... Someone even gave you the formula to convert it to a percentage. 

What more do you want? If you can't understand it. That's fine I'll explain it, but don't say I didn't do the basic research for you.

Your 99.997% number is for age group 0-19 only.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Again, baby steps guys, we only just recently got the Trumpers to admit the virus is even a real thing and not a “liberal fake news hoax designed to steal our guns and rights”. The deaths are largely bogus, it’s the strain on the medical system that all the people in hospitals cause that’s more of a problem. 

[supermike80 1,285]

5 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I literally posted the link to the CDC numbers... Someone even gave you the formula to convert it to a percentage. 

What more do you want? If you can't understand it. That's fine I'll explain it, but don't say I didn't do the basic research for you.

No its fine.  You can't back up your number and the cdc data you linked to is literally worthless.  But you do you mr smart guy

[supermike80 1,285]

4 minutes ago, Thornton Melon said:

Your 99.997% number is for age group 0-19 only.

He doesn't understand the numbers.  

[Cdub100 3,370]

Just now, Thornton Melon said:

Your 99.997% number is for age group 0-19 only.

Yeah that's why I posted the WHOLE thing so you guys can see where you fall. 

The difference between 0 & 49 is statistically insignificant. 

It would be dishonest to lump them all together. It's something Tim would do and apparently something you would too.

The point is the death rate isn't what they thought and even lower than what they tell you. Remember this is verified infections that has been debunked to be accurate.

It also doesn't take into account the 10s of thousands of people who have had it and either didn't know or didn't get tested.

The death rate is even lower. Which is why they don't talk about that anymore. It's all about infections.

[supermike80 1,285]

45 minutes ago, Thornton Melon said:

I'll help you...if 99.997% of people survive it, then 0.003% die, which is a ratio of 0.00003. If 350,000 people in the US have died from it, then to determine how many people have had Covid, you would divide 350,000 by 0.00003, which is ~11.7 billion people. There are only ~335 million people in the US.

Even if you think the 350,000 deaths is inflated (which is reasonable assumption), if every single person in the US caught Covid, the total number of deaths would be ~10,000 at a 99.997% survival rate.

But but but look at that worthless changing cdc data!

[Cdub100 3,370]

1 minute ago, supermike80 said:

No its fine.  You can't back up your number and the cdc data you linked to is literally worthless.  But you do you mr smart guy

Wow...

[supermike80 1,285]

58 minutes ago, Gladiators said:

You seem awful worked up about it and I'm not sure why.  No one has an accurate %, but I'd guess it's between 98% and 99.997%.  Carry on.

Id agree.i was just asking though.  Seriously. Cdub quoted it and I was wondering where he got that from because I never saw that.

Thats all 

[Cdub100 3,370]

2 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

But but but look at that worthless changing cdc data!

No wonder you voted for Biden. 

Show me the number.

heres the CDC numbers.

Those are worthless because the cdc says they can change.

[supermike80 1,285]

1 minute ago, Cdub100 said:

Wow...

Sorry man.   

[Utilit99 4,099]

Just open up the economy and those who want to hide in their basement can hide with no penalty of law.

[supermike80 1,285]

Just now, Cdub100 said:

No wonder you voted for Biden. 

Show me the numberheres the CDC numbers

Those are worthless because the cdc says they can change.

You dont even understand what you linked..  I cant argue with you when you don't even understand.  

But hey.   Keep your number.  Im not trying to change it.  Youre too smart for me

However if anyone besides cdub can show me the 99.997 rate please link it.  I would love to have that data I can argue with people 

[Cdub100 3,370]

1 minute ago, supermike80 said:

Sorry man.   

I mean if you want to deny science like Tim. That's fine. But you asked for the numbers I gave you the numbers and it wasn't from cnn or fox or bright art, but from the cdc.

Whatever you do you. Seems like you didn't want to know and already made a decision without all the facts.

[Thornton Melon 542]

4 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Yeah that's why I posted the WHOLE thing so you guys can see where you fall. 

The difference between 0 & 49 is statistically insignificant. 

It would be dishonest to lump them all together. It's something Tim would do and apparently something you would too.

The point is the death rate isn't what they thought and even lower than what they tell you. Remember this is verified infections that has been debunked to be accurate.

It also doesn't take into account the 10s of thousands of people who have had it and either didn't know or didn't get tested.

The death rate is even lower. Which is why they don't talk about that anymore. It's all about infections.

So, you're a teenager????    Because by your logic, that's the only reason you would have to quote the 99.997%

When are you graduating high school, kid?

[supermike80 1,285]

Just now, Cdub100 said:

I mean if you want to deny science like Tim. That's fine. But you asked for the numbers I gave you the numbers and it wasn't from cnn or fox or bright art, but from the cdc.

Whatever you do you. Seems like you didn't want to know and already made a decision without all the facts.

Yourr just too smart.  We all are in awe of how smart you are

[supermike80 1,285]

2 minutes ago, Thornton Melon said:

So, you're a teenager????    Because by your logic, that's the only reason you would have to quote the 99.997%

When are you graduating high school, kid?

Let him go.   He's got this in his head and it ain't going away.

He spewed a single number.  99.99777 or whatever it was then says

"You can't lump them together"

Its a losing battle 

[Cdub100 3,370]

Just now, Thornton Melon said:

So, you're a teenager????    Because by your logic, that's the only reason you would have to quote the 99.997%

When are you graduating high school, kid?

I posted ALL of the information. 

Sorry I didn't hide it from you. I'll do better next time to mislead you.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

16 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Again, baby steps guys, we only just recently got the Trumpers to admit the virus is even a real thing and not a “liberal fake news hoax designed to steal our guns and rights”. The deaths are largely bogus, it’s the strain on the medical system that all the people in hospitals cause that’s more of a problem. 

Jesus focking delusional Christ.

[Thornton Melon 542]

5 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I posted ALL of the information. 

Sorry I didn't hide it from you. I'll do better next time to mislead you.

Thanks, I look forward to it.

[tanatastic 2,061]

29 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

Jesus focking delusional Christ.

From a guy who thinks citizens will be lining up on opposite skin color sides and fight to the death battle royals style in major cities this year? A disturbingly high amount of trumpers across the nation believe exactly what I said.

[Utilit99 4,099]

10 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

From a guy who thinks citizens will be lining up on opposite skin color sides and fight to the death battle royals style in major cities this year? A disturbingly high amount of trumpers across the nation believe exactly what I said.

I wonder if anyone ever thought the American civil war would happen. Hmm....

[TimHauck 1,795]

6 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

Yeah that's why I posted the WHOLE thing so you guys can see where you fall. 

The difference between 0 & 49 is statistically insignificant. 

It would be dishonest to lump them all together. It's something Tim would do and apparently something you would too.

The point is the death rate isn't what they thought and even lower than what they tell you. Remember this is verified infections that has been debunked to be accurate.

It also doesn't take into account the 10s of thousands of people who have had it and either didn't know or didn't get tested.

The death rate is even lower. Which is why they don't talk about that anymore. It's all about infections.

But it's not dishonest to only quote an estimate for 0-19 year olds, with no context originally?

Yes, the death rate is lower than what they thought it was originally, but it's a heckuva lot higher than 0.003%, even using your own numbers.

Again, 0.1% of the country (as well as many other countries, such as the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Argentina, and Mexico among others) has already died from it.   Even if you think the number is inflated and cut it in half, that's still 0.05%, or 17x higher than 0.003%.   And that's the people that have already died among the total population, for a pandemic that is still going on, for a disease that the majority of people have not even gotten yet.   So even if 50% of the country has had it (doubtful), that would bring you right back to 0.1%.

[Cdub100 3,370]

3 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

But it's not dishonest to only quote an estimate for 0-19 year olds, with no context originally?

Yes, the death rate is lower than what they thought it was originally, but it's a heckuva lot higher than 0.003%, even using your own numbers.

Again, 0.1% of the country (as well as many other countries, such as the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Argentina, and Mexico among others) has already died from it.   Even if you think the number is inflated and cut it in half, that's still 0.05%, or 17x higher than 0.003%.   And that's the people that have already died among the total population, for a pandemic that is still going on, for a disease that the majority of people have not even gotten yet.   So even if 50% of the country has had it (doubtful), that would bring you right back to 0.1%.

And it's not the armageddon you say it is. I posted the whole thing so people could make their own decision. Of course you don't like that. You would rather lie to people. Supermike would rather be lied to.

99.997%

[TimHauck 1,795]

13 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

And it's not the armageddon you say it is. I posted the whole thing so people could make their own decision. Of course you don't like that. You would rather lie to people. Supermike would rather be lied to.

99.997%

You didn't post the whole thing originally..

I never said it was armageddon.  I've said everything should be open where social distancing can be maintained.   But considering there was no vaccine until recently, it is much worse than the flu.

What did I lie about? 0.1% of the country has died from it, almost on the dot.    Covid is the underlying cause in 91.4% of "with covid" deaths according to the CDC.   CDC "with covid" deaths are behind the ones reported in the news.   So if there were 350k "with covid" deaths, 91.4% = 320k.

 

[supermike80 1,285]

7 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

And it's not the armageddon you say it is. I posted the whole thing so people could make their own decision. Of course you don't like that. You would rather lie to people. Supermike would rather be lied to.

99.997%

I'll take the data, but you don't have any and you don't understand what data you present.  Can't help that.

Like I said, if anyone can support your 99.997% number for all I would love to see it.  I want to be able to present that to people.

But if I tried to use the data you provided, I would be laughed out of the argument, just like you were.

[listen2me 23 1,537]

So whats this make? 3 lockdowns for them?

How is Cali doing?

The virus seems no worse or better in areas of high restriction compared to those of less restriction.  

[supermike80 1,285]

10 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

So whats this make? 3 lockdowns for them?

How is Cali doing?

The virus seems no worse or better in areas of high restriction compared to those of less restriction.  

Yup.   The lockdown is a sad overreaction that is crushing people.   But FOLLOW THE SCIENCE!!! hey at least they will live right?  They will be poor, suicidal in many cases..but we have saved one life damnit!

[5-Points 2,716]

16 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If you do a google search on deaths from covid in the US, you'll see 354k.  If you divide that by 328.2M (US population), you'll get 0.108%.  So, that's the number of people in this country who have died from Covid.  I guess technically his 99.997% is wrong... it should 99.892%.  I believe that's what he's referencing.

If you use this as your source, you have 352,464 people who have died and 20.7M who've tested positive.  That would indicate that 1.700% of the people who got infected with the virus, died.  Meaning, 98.30% survivability rate.

But for your math to be accurate you have to have accurate numbers to begin with and we already know that the numbers have been artificially inflated. 

Plus all of the other aforementioned irregularities and uncertainties. 

In reality, it's impossible to calculate what the official mortality rate is at this time. Suffice to say it's extremely low and not worth shutting the country down  and ruining people's lives over. 

[TimHauck 1,795]

40 minutes ago, 5-Points said:

But for your math to be accurate you have to have accurate numbers to begin with and we already know that the numbers have been artificially inflated. 

Plus all of the other aforementioned irregularities and uncertainties. 

In reality, it's impossible to calculate what the official mortality rate is at this time. Suffice to say it's extremely low and not worth shutting the country down  and ruining people's lives over. 

It’s only artificially inflated by about 8-9% at worst 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

1 hour ago, 5-Points said:

But for your math to be accurate you have to have accurate numbers to begin with and we already know that the numbers have been artificially inflated. 

Plus all of the other aforementioned irregularities and uncertainties. 

In reality, it's impossible to calculate what the official mortality rate is at this time. Suffice to say it's extremely low and not worth shutting the country down  and ruining people's lives over. 

I don't disagree.  I was simply putting up the numbers that are being reported.  I agree with you.  I said it before... precautions should be taken, but extreme precautions are fear mongering and no precautions are stupid.  California has been extremely precautious from Day 1.  In the link I posted (in the quote you responded to), if you scroll down you'll see that California has the 2nd highest rate of infections.  Even their shutting down of things isn't working.  Yet, both Florida and Texas who are what, at 50%+ if not fully open, are in the middle of the pack.

[TimHauck 1,795]

7 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't disagree.  I was simply putting up the numbers that are being reported.  I agree with you.  I said it before... precautions should be taken, but extreme precautions are fear mongering and no precautions are stupid.  California has been extremely precautious from Day 1.  In the link I posted (in the quote you responded to), if you scroll down you'll see that California has the 2nd highest rate of infections.  Even their shutting down of things isn't working.  Yet, both Florida and Texas who are what, at 50%+ if not fully open, are in the middle of the pack.

That's only in the last 7 days.  In total, in cases/million population (pretty much the same measure as your link), California is actually better than both Florida and Texas.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

9 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

That's only in the last 7 days.  In total, in cases/million population (pretty much the same measure as your link), California is actually better than both Florida and Texas.

Yeah, and CA has been full blown retard since Day 1 and FL and TX have been pretty much fully open for 6 months... yet, they're not that far apart, on the total.

[TimHauck 1,795]

14 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, and CA has been full blown retard since Day 1 and FL and TX have been pretty much fully open for 6 months... yet, they're not that far apart, on the total.

Yes I agree CA has had too many restrictions

[5-Points 2,716]

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

It’s only artificially inflated by about 8-9% at worst 

How would we know without accurate records to compare against?

[5-Points 2,716]

49 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't disagree.  I was simply putting up the numbers that are being reported.  I agree with you.  I said it before... precautions should be taken, but extreme precautions are fear mongering and no precautions are stupid.  California has been extremely precautious from Day 1.  In the link I posted (in the quote you responded to), if you scroll down you'll see that California has the 2nd highest rate of infections.  Even their shutting down of things isn't working.  Yet, both Florida and Texas who are what, at 50%+ if not fully open, are in the middle of the pack.

I wasn't singling out your math. I meant in general, given the exaggerated numbers we have to work with, it's impossible to acurrately calculate a mortality rate. 

I agree with you wholeheartedly. Take precautions where necessary but let people live their lives and keep their livelihoods. 

[TimHauck 1,795]

4 minutes ago, 5-Points said:

How would we know without accurate records to compare against?

CDC tracks both "with covid" deaths and where covid was the underlying cause.   Covid as the underlying cause is currently 91.4% of "with covid" deaths.   

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6/data

(Also tracks "all cause" deaths at the above link. Looks like 2020 is currently on track to finish about 400k deaths ahead of 2019, which would be an increase of +14%).

[5-Points 2,716]

8 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

CDC tracks both "with covid" deaths and where covid was the underlying cause.   Covid as the underlying cause is currently 91.4% of "with covid" deaths.   

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6/data

(Also tracks "all cause" deaths at the above link. Looks like 2020 is currently on track to finish about 400k deaths ahead of 2019, which would be an increase of +14%).

But how many of those "with covid" deaths were false positive? Or how many of the "non-covid related" were false negatives?

I'm not trying to be argumentative. I'm just trying to point out that, given all of the variables, it's hard to put faith in any of the official statistics. 

[TimHauck 1,795]

30 minutes ago, 5-Points said:

But how many of those "with covid" deaths were false positive? Or how many of the "non-covid related" were false negatives?

I'm not trying to be argumentative. I'm just trying to point out that, given all of the variables, it's hard to put faith in any of the official statistics. 

Most of the "false positives" actually had the virus, just not enough of it to make them sick or spread it to others.  That's not the case for the ones dying from it.     A false negative would just raise the numbers of course - and there were definitely undercounts early on.

Even the Minnesota senator that spawned the conspiracy theory that "hospitals are intentionally classifying deaths as covid for financial gain!" said he doesn't actually think that is happening - https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-covid-19-death-count/

No, we may not have 100% exact numbers.   But we have data from death certificates, that unless doctors and hospitals all across the country are violating the hippocratic oath, should be pretty close.  We also have TOTAL death numbers, where the total excess deaths will likely end up significantly higher than covid deaths (and yes, I know some other causes of death will likely also be up for 2020, just not nearly as much as covid).    So yes, there were probably some deaths misclassified - but some could have been misclassified as covid when they weren't and some could have been misclassified as not covid when they were.   At the end of the day based on the data we have I'm confident that our number is pretty close.   

Now, is it possible a lot of those people may have died of something else either this year or next?   Yes, but that's a different argument.   Will definitely be interesting to see how 2021 and 2022 total deaths end up.