Looking Ahead to Redrafts 2021: First Four Rounds

[huskyhater75 242]

Yes, I didn’t see where Brees came out and confirmed he was retiring either. He probably should (can’t throw deep any more), but he hasn’t retired-yet.

[weepaws 2,451]

Agreed. 

He should retire , I think he’s going to retire, but he hasn’t seen he has just yet at least. N

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

On 1/7/2021 at 4:32 PM, Fumbleweed said:

1. Dalvin Cook
2. Christian McCaffrey
3. Alvin Kamara
4. Derrick Henry
5. Davante Adams
6. Nick Chubb
7. Aaron Jones
8. Tyreek Hill
9. Saquon Barkley
10. Jonathan Taylor
11. Travis Kelce
12. D.K. Metcalf

That's a good list.  There could be some off-season happenings that could really be interesting with this group of players.

• Cook always gets hurt, so he's going to miss games.  Fortunately, the Vikings give him the ball down at the goal line and he scores a lot of TD's.  The thing that would cause me some hesitation on taking him #1 would be the injuries.  He does get hurt every year, it's just a matter of time until he misses a lot of games.  Something else to look for would be the draft.  Cook has 2 years left on his deal that have high cap hits.  The last 2 are nominal.  I could see the Vikings looking to take a RB in round 2 or 3 and try to get him into the fold so that the Vikings can move on from Cook after the 2022 season.  This could eat into Cook's production.
• With Kamara, we saw his production take a good hit when Taysom Hill was the QB.  He put up decent numbers, sure, but they were RB2 numbers... not top 5 numbers.  What the Saints do in the offseason with their QB situation (because I think Brees retires), will/should affect Kamara's draft slot.
• Nick Chubb is heading into a contract year.  Hunt was just given a 2-year deal which this coming season will guarantee him like $5M after bonuses and what not, are paid.  Does Chubb hold out?  Do they give him a long term deal?  Do they trade him?  The answer to these questions could have a pretty big impact on where he goes in the draft.
• The Packers drafted a RB last year in the second round and he played pretty well.  Jones apparently just turned down a contract offer that would make him a top 5 paid RB.  I'm thinking that with the new RB and Jones turning down the offer, he's not going to be in Green Bay next season.   Where he goes, could affect his draft status.
• Over the last 2 seasons Barkley missed 17 games.  I think he's a talented player, but I think his apparent fragility will cause him to drop to the 2nd round.
• Taylor had a decent year, up and down at times, but was able to put up huge games against terrible defenses at the end of the season.  I think that will influence people to take Taylor pretty high, maybe even top 3 depending how some of the prior mentioned off-season goes.  I'll pass on him top 3... even round 1.  People quickly forget that Marlon Mack had a really good year last year.  I've heard the same old lines of "So and so's performance made people forget about him".  Well, Taylor's 2020 season wasn't all that much different that Mack's 2019 season.  Even though Mack played in only 14 games (12 starts), he did actually have more carries that year than Taylor did in 2020... 247 compared to 232.  Yes, Taylor averaged 5 ypc and Mack 4.4.  Taylor did have 12 total TD's and Mack had 8.  Taylor did have 36 receptions for 300 yards while Mack only had 14 for 82.  But, and that's actually a big "but", Taylor played with a QB who brought them to the playoffs and Mack played with Jacoby Brissett.  Who's the guy in 2021?  I'd be leery of this backfield.  Could be RBBC next year.  The big thing to keep tabs on is Mack's contract.  He's a UFA this off-season.  It's possible that he signs elsewhere, which will definitely make Taylor a top 5 (or even 3), candidate.  But if the Colts re-sign him, I'll have Taylor at the top of my DND draft because he'll go in the 1st or top of the 2nd round and I wouldn't even consider him until the 3rd... 4th pending on who I took in the first two rounds.
• Metcalf is an interesting player.  He's talented, but after that game in Philly this year... things didn't look right in Seattle?  Not with anyone... Metcalf, Wilson, Lockett, and Carson.  Part in parcel is probably due to Carson's injuries, but I'm not sure.  I don't think I want Metcalf as my WR1 next year.  I will be ok with him if I have a top 3-5 pick and he falls to me, but maybe not, depending on who else is there.  I'll be interested to see what Seattle does to improve their line and their offense this off-season... especially concerning Lockett, who will be going into a contract year.  Will he hold out?

[RedzoneMonster 102]

On 1/8/2021 at 12:36 PM, AxeElf said:

Totally understandable; just not applicable to Henry, who not only had his breakout season, but then tacked two more rushing championship seasons on top of it.  Henry didn't "have his big season"; Henry just keeps posting big seasons, and I'm going to expect him to continue doing so until he doesn't, at least until someone comes up with a better reason than "he can't possibly do it again."  I don't see any reason why not.

He's definitely going to continue to have the same opportunity for volume, with the same coaching staff and the same major skill players around him.  If he can't stay healthy, he's going to have to prove that to me, because despite his massive usage, Henry has been pretty unbreakable throughout his career.

Didja know Henry also had over 300 carries in EACH of his four high school seasons?  In his senior season, he rushed 462 times for 4,261 yards, averaging 9.2 yards per carry, 327 yards rushing per game and ran for 55 touchdowns. He also set the national high school football record for career rushing yards with 12,124.  He also had 395 carries as a senior at Alabama.  The guy just thrives on volume.

Yet despite all that volume, this is Derrick Henry's injury history:

April 13, 2013:  broken fibula (first spring practice in college, missed no games)

November 6, 2016:  calf strain (first year in NFL, missed 1 game)

December 18, 2019:  grade 2 hamstring strain (last year, and he posted 211/3 the next week, and then 182/1 and 195/0 in the first two weeks of the playoffs)

I'm telling you; he's not human.

 

Turns out Henry is human after all....  Glad I drafted 11th and not 1st this year.  

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, RedzoneMonster said:

Turns out Henry is human after all.... 

Yeah, he broke a bone in college, too--but it was just in spring practice and he din't miss any fall games.

It's still pretty cool that he seems to be immune to the soft tissue injuries that plague most RBs with anywhere near the kind of volume that Henry delivers--a calf strain in 2016 that cost him 1 game and a low-grade hamstring strain last year that didn't interrupt his superhuman production at all, and that's it.

I'm telling you, he's not human.

[RedzoneMonster 102]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Yeah, he broke a bone in college, too--but it was just in spring practice and he din't miss any fall games.

It's still pretty cool that he seems to be immune to the soft tissue injuries that plague most RBs with anywhere near the kind of volume that Henry delivers--a calf strain in 2016 that cost him 1 game and a low-grade hamstring strain last year that didn't interrupt his superhuman production at all, and that's it.

I'm telling you, he's not human.

His foot is…

[GobbleDog 815]

2022 Draft

Round One:
1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Derrick Henry
3. Christian McCaffery
4. Alvin Kamara
5. Nick Chubb
6. James Robinson
7. Austin Ekeler
8. Joe Mixon
9. Aaron Jones
10. Tyreeek Kill
11. Davente Adams
12. Justin Jefferson

[potts17 4]

20 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

2022 Draft

Round One:
1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Derrick Henry
3. Christian McCaffery
4. Alvin Kamara
5. Nick Chubb
6. James Robinson
7. Austin Ekeler
8. Joe Mixon
9. Aaron Jones
10. Tyreeek Kill
11. Davente Adams
12. Justin Jefferson

Substitute Dalvin Cook for James Robinson and that's actually a pretty good list. Depending on what happens with the Packers w/ Rodgers and Adams. Adams may slide down if he stays and Rodgers goes. I think they are both gone after this season though. 

[weepaws 2,451]

If Adams and Rodgers both go, and I think it will happen , and with Dillon on the team one can remove A Jones from that list.  D Cook needs to be on that list.  

[GobbleDog 815]

2 hours ago, potts17 said:

Substitute Dalvin Cook for James Robinson and that's actually a pretty good list. Depending on what happens with the Packers w/ Rodgers and Adams. Adams may slide down if he stays and Rodgers goes. I think they are both gone after this season though. 

Damn, you're right - I forgot about Cook. Yeah, he slots in there in the middle too.

[nobody 2,031]

Don't forget Etienne is back next year for the jags.  That's going to submarine James Robinson's value

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

On 11/22/2021 at 9:50 PM, GobbleDog said:

2022 Draft

Round One:
1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Derrick Henry
3. Christian McCaffery
4. Alvin Kamara
5. Nick Chubb
6. James Robinson
7. Austin Ekeler
8. Joe Mixon
9. Aaron Jones
10. Tyreeek Kill
11. Davente Adams
12. Justin Jefferson

No Elliott, Cook, or Harris?  I'm not taking Robinson, McCaffrey, or Jones in round 1.  Easily take Elliott and Harris over all 3.

Will also take those 3 RB's over the WR's.

[weepaws 2,451]

Mmm I not sold yet on The Zeke and Harris yet.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

Mmm I not sold yet on The Zeke and Harris yet.  

Really?  LOL

Elliott is currently RB7, last year in a "down year", he was RB9.  The year before that, he was RB3, RB5 the year before that, RB12 the prior year (in 10 games), and RB2 in his rookie year... and you're not sold on him?  He's been an RB1 for 6 consecutive years.  There's no RB in the NFL who can say that aside from Elliott, and you're not sold on him yet?

Harris is the only RB on a team that they give the ball to, on a team that loves running the ball.  On top of that, they throw to him a lot.

[weepaws 2,451]

Really, I know their numbers, I don’t see Ben returning that’s going to change things up in Pitt land.  

And the Zeke seems to be breaking down some, Pollard is gaining on him, staying ahead of the curve.  Then Zeke is also avg 3 points less per game this season 1/2 point ppr then he did in 2019, and only one point more than last season without Dak, while Pollard is having his best ff 1/2 point ppr season, and only needs 11 more rush att to tie his most in a season , I think Pollard is catching up. So I’ll wait and see. 

And like I  said , not sold yet. Just hold on it’s only November 24th 2021. 

Happy Thanksgiving 

[Gratefulegg1973 253]

On 11/24/2021 at 9:29 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

Really?  LOL

Elliott is currently RB7, last year in a "down year", he was RB9.  The year before that, he was RB3, RB5 the year before that, RB12 the prior year (in 10 games), and RB2 in his rookie year... and you're not sold on him?  He's been an RB1 for 6 consecutive years.  There's no RB in the NFL who can say that aside from Elliott, and you're not sold on him yet?

Harris is the only RB on a team that they give the ball to, on a team that loves running the ball.  On top of that, they throw to him a lot.

I don't care what Zeke did 4 years ago.  Right now he sucks.  All that's saving him is his 1yd TD plunges.  

I also don't care that he's RBwhatever.  That's really not a good way to evaluate.  What would he be if CMAC, Henry, Barkley, etc stayed healthy?  Yes I know injuries are something to consider, but Zeke actually hurts your team more at times by riding pine half the game.  

I'll be stuck with him in a keeper league probably till he retires, but unless he falls till late rd 2 next year I'm not touching him

[weepaws 2,451]

On 11/24/2021 at 6:29 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

Really?  LOL

Elliott is currently RB7, last year in a "down year", he was RB9.  The year before that, he was RB3, RB5 the year before that, RB12 the prior year (in 10 games), and RB2 in his rookie year... and you're not sold on him?  He's been an RB1 for 6 consecutive years.  There's no RB in the NFL who can say that aside from Elliott, and you're not sold on him yet?

Harris is the only RB on a team that they give the ball to, on a team that loves running the ball.  On top of that, they throw to him a lot.

 

On 11/24/2021 at 6:53 PM, weepaws said:

Really, I know their numbers, I don’t see Ben returning that’s going to change things up in Pitt land.  

And the Zeke seems to be breaking down some, Pollard is gaining on him, staying ahead of the curve.  Then Zeke is also avg 3 points less per game this season 1/2 point ppr then he did in 2019, and only one point more than last season without Dak, while Pollard is having his best ff 1/2 point ppr season, and only needs 11 more rush att to tie his most in a season , I think Pollard is catching up. So I’ll wait and see. 

And like I  said , not sold yet. Just hold on it’s only November 24th 2021. 

Happy Thanksgiving 

Two games later, and now I’m not even sure he’s worthy of a second round pick going forward. 

Thanks. 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,576]

You can pick any position you want early and win. As long as you pick the right players who perform and don’t get hurt. 

[weepaws 2,451]

So our you picking a kicker in the first round next season? 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,576]

45 minutes ago, weepaws said:

So our you picking a kicker in the first round next season? 

I’m in a good league. We don’t use kickers. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

8 hours ago, weepaws said:

 

Two games later, and now I’m not even sure he’s worthy of a second round pick going forward. 

Thanks. 

LOL

[weepaws 2,451]

7 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

You can pick any position you want early and win. As long as you pick the right players who perform and don’t get hurt. 

Said any position, didn’t say expect for kickers.  

6 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I’m in a good league. We don’t use kickers. 

Didn’t answer the question, so I ask again , would you draft a kicker in the first round?

[Hardcore troubadour 12,576]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Said any position, didn’t say expect for kickers.  

Didn’t answer the question, so I ask again , would you draft a kicker in the first round?

They aren’t available. It’s a silly question. And if you use them, your league is outdated and probably filled with non competitive players that don’t play for money. I could probably pick 2 kickers in the first two rounds and compete in that league. 

[weepaws 2,451]

10 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

You can pick any position you want early and win. As long as you pick the right players who perform and don’t get hurt. 

Silly statement.  

41 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

They aren’t available. It’s a silly question. And if you use them, your league is outdated and probably filled with non competitive players that don’t play for money. I could probably pick 2 kickers in the first two rounds and compete in that league. 

Thanks. 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,576]

It’s all about getting the right players. Whoever the number one kicker is this year would have been a better pick than Calvin Ridley. 

[weepaws 2,451]

11 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

You can pick any position you want early and win. As long as you pick the right players who perform and don’t get hurt. 

 

12 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

It’s all about getting the right players. Whoever the number one kicker is this year would have been a better pick than Calvin Ridley. 

Two silly statements.  You said your league doesn’t use kickers   

Thanks.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,576]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

 

Two silly statements.  You said your league doesn’t use kickers   

Thanks.

You’re dumber than I thought. You’re welcome.