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Fumbleweed

Looking Ahead to Redrafts 2021: First Four Rounds

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This is something I like to post on site in early January and then update it every few weeks for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2021 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices. QBs are also valued a little higher by me based on some of the scoring systems I play being QB-friendly. 

Round One:

1. Dalvin Cook
2. Christian McCaffrey
3. Alvin Kamara
4. Derrick Henry
5. Davante Adams
6. Nick Chubb
7. Aaron Jones
8. Tyreek Hill
9. Saquon Barkley
10. Jonathan Taylor
11. Travis Kelce
12. D.K. Metcalf

Round Two:

13. Josh Jacobs
14. Patrick Mahomes
15. Stefon Diggs
16. Ezekiel Elliott
17. Calvin Ridley
18. Josh Allen
19. David Montgomery
20. James Robinson
21. DeAndre Hopkins
22. A.J. Brown
23. J.K. Dobbins 
24. Darren Waller

Round Three:

25. Miles Sanders
26. Justin Jefferson
27. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
28. George Kittle
29. Antonio Gibson
30. Michael Thomas
31. Keenan Allen
32. D'Andre Swift
33. DeShaun Watson
34. Mike Evans
35. Melvin Gordon
36. Allen Robinson

Round Four:

37. Austin Ekeler
38. Joe Mixon
39. Kyler Murray
40. Adam Thielen
41. Ronald Jones
42. Julio Jones
43. Chris Carson
44. Aaron Rodgers
45. Robert Woods
46. Kenyan Drake
47. Mark Andrews
48. Tyler Lockett


Thoughts??

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Next year I will be praying to draft in the mid to late first rd.  I don't want to go near any of the top 5 with a ten foot pole then have to wait an eternity for my 2nd pick.  Give me any combo of Hill, J. Taylor, Diggs, Ridley as my first 2 picks and I'll be just fine with it.  (I'm saying this as a 2020 CMC owner).  Cook, CMC, Henry, Kamara, Adams are all screaming either "overuse year prior, injury risk, won't have 2 monster seasons back to back years".  

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Cook is kinda a pain in the ass to own. Always misses time, a lot of it in game. And Zimmer insists on a prehistoric offense. Count me out. 

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3 hours ago, Fumbleweed said:

This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2021 based upon what is known today. 

Round One:

1. Dalvin Cook
2. Christian McCaffrey
3. Alvin Kamara
4. Derrick Henry

Any non-PPR ranking that doesn't have Henry #1 should automatically be discounted.

1 hour ago, RedzoneMonster said:

Cook, CMC, Henry, Kamara, Adams are all screaming either "overuse year prior, injury risk, won't have 2 monster seasons back to back years".  

Except Henry has already had late-season bursts for 3 years in a row... and he's the back-to-back rushing champion.

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20 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Except Henry has already had late-season bursts for 3 years in a row... and he's the back-to-back rushing champion.

Even more reason not to want to have to make the decision to take him next year.  Yes, he's had 3 late season blow ups in a row, but 3 years ago he only had 215 carries.  2 years ago he had 303 carries and this year 378!  After the playoffs are over he's gonna have well over 400 carries.  You feel good about taking a RB anywhere near #1 who just came off 400+ carries?  I mean, you almost HAVE to take him in he's there at #3 spot, but that's why I don't want the #3 spot.. There is almost no chance in my mind he doesn't miss enough games next year. to make you regret taking him.  Feel free to set a reminder for yourself week 16 next season to come back to me on this if I'm wrong..

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Kelce is too low.  He should be top 6.

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2 hours ago, RedzoneMonster said:

You feel good about taking a RB anywhere near #1 who just came off 400+ carries?

Fork yeah, if it's Derrick Freight Train Henry!  The guy isn't human.  Now if it was Barkley, no.  I don't want Barkley after a 50 carry season.  Henry is just one of those proverbial RBs who gets better the more carries he gets.  In Rocky terms, he doesn't get killed, he gets mad.  I missed out on Henry's monster season in 2019 because I didn't trust the late-season burst he showed in 2018.  But then he did it again, so I rode him in 4 out of 5 leagues THIS year, and damned if he didn't do it AGAIN.

So yeah, I'm trusting Henry until he gives me a reason not to.  One day he will, and I also trust that I will have adequate backup systems in place to weather the storm when it happens (I'm Axe Elf, duh)--but until then, Henry is an indestructible top 5 RB during the regular season and a lock for 30 league-winning points per week in your fantasy playoffs.

And that's in PPR.  In non-PPR, Henry is the undisputed #1 pick until he isn't.

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I've never known a football player that wasn't human. And as such, Derrick Henry is human. Granted, his response to massive workloads two years in a row is impressive, but there are no immortals playing football in the NFL. As such, I like him top-5, but not top-3. Any argument that puts him at the top of rankings, though, would be valid based on recent track record. 

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11 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Fork yeah, if it's Derrick Freight Train Henry!  The guy isn't human.  Now if it was Barkley, no.  I don't want Barkley after a 50 carry season.  Henry is just one of those proverbial RBs who gets better the more carries he gets.  In Rocky terms, he doesn't get killed, he gets mad.  I missed out on Henry's monster season in 2019 because I didn't trust the late-season burst he showed in 2018.  But then he did it again, so I rode him in 4 out of 5 leagues THIS year, and damned if he didn't do it AGAIN.

So yeah, I'm trusting Henry until he gives me a reason not to.  One day he will, and I also trust that I will have adequate backup systems in place to weather the storm when it happens (I'm Axe Elf, duh)--but until then, Henry is an indestructible top 5 RB during the regular season and a lock for 30 league-winning points per week in your fantasy playoffs.

And that's in PPR.  In non-PPR, Henry is the undisputed #1 pick until he isn't.

I can't argue with taking Henry at #1, especially in non-ppr.  If I had the #1 pick next year there is a decent chance I'd take him - you almost HAVE to.  My point is, I don't want the #1 pick.  I had the #2 pick this year and took CMC (#1 took Barkley).  It didn't work out too well for either of us.  In my 20 years of doing this, more often than not when a guy has a bonkers record setting year, they don't come close the next year.  Something always seems to happen (injury, etc).  CMC & M. Thomas 2019 vs 2020 for example.  I know that just bc it's happened before doesn't mean it will happen again, but I've seen it so many times.  Sean Alexander. P. Manning, Brady, David Johnson, Gurley, etc.   Some exceptions are P. Holmes and Tomlinson.   I just don't want to have to invest so much draft capital in one player who just HAD his big season anymore.  I'd much rather draft later and take the potential "next one up" to have a record season, and still get an elite 2nd pick.  For example first pick someone like Chubb or J. Taylor, 2nd pick someone like Diggs or Hopkins.  

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2 hours ago, RedzoneMonster said:

I just don't want to have to invest so much draft capital in one player who just HAD his big season anymore.

Totally understandable; just not applicable to Henry, who not only had his breakout season, but then tacked two more rushing championship seasons on top of it.  Henry didn't "have his big season"; Henry just keeps posting big seasons, and I'm going to expect him to continue doing so until he doesn't, at least until someone comes up with a better reason than "he can't possibly do it again."  I don't see any reason why not.

He's definitely going to continue to have the same opportunity for volume, with the same coaching staff and the same major skill players around him.  If he can't stay healthy, he's going to have to prove that to me, because despite his massive usage, Henry has been pretty unbreakable throughout his career.

Didja know Henry also had over 300 carries in EACH of his four high school seasons?  In his senior season, he rushed 462 times for 4,261 yards, averaging 9.2 yards per carry, 327 yards rushing per game and ran for 55 touchdowns. He also set the national high school football record for career rushing yards with 12,124.  He also had 395 carries as a senior at Alabama.  The guy just thrives on volume.

Yet despite all that volume, this is Derrick Henry's injury history:

April 13, 2013:  broken fibula (first spring practice in college, missed no games)

November 6, 2016:  calf strain (first year in NFL, missed 1 game)

December 18, 2019:  grade 2 hamstring strain (last year, and he posted 211/3 the next week, and then 182/1 and 195/0 in the first two weeks of the playoffs)

I'm telling you; he's not human.

 

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If Dak Prescott plays in Dallas next season, I think CeeDee Lamb is a steal going after 4 rounds.

He'll be a top 10 WR

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1 hour ago, polecatt said:

If Dak Prescott plays in Dallas next season, I think CeeDee Lamb is a steal going after 4 rounds.

He'll be a top 10 WR

You're right. Some WR in Dallas probably will be. It's just hard to know which one. 

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2 hours ago, polecatt said:

If Dak Prescott plays in Dallas next season, I think CeeDee Lamb is a steal going after 4 rounds.

He'll be a top 10 WR

Absolutely.  He was a top 10 WR THIS year, in his first five games as a rookie, when Dak was healthy.

But he won't go after four rounds.  Someone will probly take him in the 2nd, and he's basically a steal any time thereafter.

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4 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Totally understandable; just not applicable to Henry, who not only had his breakout season, but then tacked two more rushing championship seasons on top of it.  Henry didn't "have his big season"; Henry just keeps posting big seasons, and I'm going to expect him to continue doing so until he doesn't, at least until someone comes up with a better reason than "he can't possibly do it again."  I don't see any reason why not.

He's definitely going to continue to have the same opportunity for volume, with the same coaching staff and the same major skill players around him.  If he can't stay healthy, he's going to have to prove that to me, because despite his massive usage, Henry has been pretty unbreakable throughout his career.

Didja know Henry also had over 300 carries in EACH of his four high school seasons?  In his senior season, he rushed 462 times for 4,261 yards, averaging 9.2 yards per carry, 327 yards rushing per game and ran for 55 touchdowns. He also set the national high school football record for career rushing yards with 12,124.  He also had 395 carries as a senior at Alabama.  The guy just thrives on volume.

Yet despite all that volume, this is Derrick Henry's injury history:

April 13, 2013:  broken fibula (first spring practice in college, missed no games)

November 6, 2016:  calf strain (first year in NFL, missed 1 game)

December 18, 2019:  grade 2 hamstring strain (last year, and he posted 211/3 the next week, and then 182/1 and 195/0 in the first two weeks of the playoffs)

I'm telling you; he's not human.

 

I agree.  the dude is not human, and I'd take him at #1.  I'd just rather draft 12th than 1st next year.  

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A TE in the first round, no no no.  

Metcalf in the first round why? He was the 6th best wr based on avg in non ppr and disappeared his last four three games  

And I can get a top rb at that spot , and maybe even another based on those qbs in round two, grap Thielen in the third , I’m winning the draft. 

Thanks  

 

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James Robinson won't end up going that high.  People are going to shìt on him all summer and Jax is going to acquire another runningback that'll just fuel that narrative.

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7 hours ago, Fumbleweed said:

You're right. Some WR in Dallas probably will be. It's just hard to know which one. 

I think CeeDee and Amari Cooper will both be worthy fantasy starters. Gallup should be decent WR depth.

Amari Cooper, he's a little bit safer bet, but no doubt CeeDee has the upside

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6 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Absolutely.  He was a top 10 WR THIS year, in his first five games as a rookie, when Dak was healthy.

But he won't go after four rounds.  Someone will probly take him in the 2nd, and he's basically a steal any time thereafter.

Oh I know, I know, lol

I was relying on him heavily in my dynasty league. He was the 7th ranked WR when Dak went down.

I expect it to be that way next season and probably even better.

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12 team non ppr league, but for some reason I only see 9 players listed in round two, qbs and tes that early don’t count. 

I like the other listed players in round two,  but I would move Robinson down below Dobbins and Hopkins and A Brown. 

And I think Dobbins could be a great in the round based on the players you listed.  

 

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David Montgomery is going to be overvalued next year. He benefited from a soft schedule the second half of the season. I'll gladly pass on him in Round 2.

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5 minutes ago, Mike FF Today said:

David Montgomery is going to be overvalued next year. He benefited from a soft schedule the second half of the season. I'll gladly pass on him in Round 2.

C'mon, man...  You could at least credit your sources.

Thank you, Axe Elf!

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Don’t see Montgomery being worthy of a top 12 rb next season.  

He’s a rb2.  

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I see only ten players listed in round three, can’t count tes and qbs that high.  

I really like Sanders, Jefferson, and Swift and M Thomas in that round   

I think in a non ppr Sanders and Swift could make into round 2   

Jefferson is another reason why no ones needs to reach in the first round for Metcalf  

Interesting offseason for M Thomas we’ll help make my decision on were to draft him   

Good job OP   

 

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Thanks for the post Fumble, it's nice to have a list to think about the future.

I don't know how Cam Akers and Gaskins don't make this list by August.

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12 minutes ago, Smileseers said:

Thanks for the post Fumble, it's nice to have a list to think about the future.

I don't know how Cam Akers and Gaskins don't make this list by August.

Agree especially on Akers - I was kinda knocking him in that other thread, but that was more in like the 2nd round.  I’d definitely take him in the 4th, but he could be gone by then.

Taylor in the first round feels high to me.  He had a nice stretch run but that was pretty TD dependent.  He only had 100+ rush yards once through the first 14 weeks and 4 games under 30 rushing yards.    I’d probably put a couple more WR’s in the first round but would likely also take Jacobs or Robinson ahead of him.  

But yeah almost all these RB’s make me nervous. I feel like I may just draft a bunch of RB’s in round 4-8 or so.

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11 minutes ago, RedzoneMonster said:

Akers will be a 2nd to 3rd round pick that will produce 1st rd results. Write it down.. 

You mean he'll get hurt in Week 2 and be a game-time decision for the next 10 weeks and finish with 500 yards and 5 TDs?

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On 1/7/2021 at 9:42 PM, AxeElf said:

Fork yeah, if it's Derrick Freight Train Henry!  The guy isn't human.  

:unsure:

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1 hour ago, RedzoneMonster said:

Akers will be a 2nd to 3rd round pick that will produce 1st rd results. Write it down.. 

I would disagree, I think the Rams def will be hurt next season by an even worst offense next season.  

I think Akers will be over valued, and that’s a good thing for me.  

So I’ll buy the under. 

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The thing that struck me was no Dak and no Cowboys receivers in the first 4 rounds?  Drake is too high - I know the assumption was minimal player movement, but I just don't see him being back with Arizona or any other team going after him as a feature back.  

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Mm R Jones, R Woods and T Lockett non ppr 4th value.  

Oh no.   

 

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9 minutes ago, Sosinski said:

Is Kenny Galladay going to be drafted in the first 4 rounds?  

Maybe.  

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Where are all of the Patriot players?  

Oh. That's right.

ICEMAN

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On 1/8/2021 at 6:34 PM, weepaws said:

A TE in the first round, no no no.  

Metcalf in the first round why? He was the 6th best wr based on avg in non ppr and disappeared his last four three games  

And I can get a top rb at that spot , and maybe even another based on those qbs in round two, grap Thielen in the third , I’m winning the draft. 

Thanks  

 

Yeah - Carrol has already said they are switching back to a "run first" offense, which greatly diminishes both Wilson and Metcalf.  I say this as a Metcalf owner this year.  dude is absolutely a beast but if they aren't going to throw the ball to him what's the point?

Carrol sucks balls.

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With Brees retiring after today's game, I could see Kamara slipping to the bottom of round one in non-ppr. Maybe even into round two if they are short-sighted enough to make Taysom Hill the starter next season.

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When did he retire? 

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2 hours ago, loonecho said:

With Brees retiring after today's game, I could see Kamara slipping to the bottom of round one in non-ppr. Maybe even into round two if they are short-sighted enough to make Taysom Hill the starter next season.

They won’t make Hill their starting Qb if Brees was to retire.  

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5 hours ago, loonecho said:

With Brees retiring after today's game...

 

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

When did he retire? 

As reported by Jay Glazer of FOX Sports (and as repeated by loon), Drew Brees retired at the conclusion of the 2020 season.

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weepaws - for when you just need to argue over inevitabilities and semantics.

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