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Looking Ahead to Redrafts 2021: First Four Rounds

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Yes, I didn’t see where Brees came out and confirmed he was retiring either. He probably should (can’t throw deep any more), but he hasn’t retired-yet.

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He should retire , I think he’s going to retire, but he hasn’t seen he has just yet at least. N

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On 1/7/2021 at 4:32 PM, Fumbleweed said:

1. Dalvin Cook
2. Christian McCaffrey
3. Alvin Kamara
4. Derrick Henry
5. Davante Adams
6. Nick Chubb
7. Aaron Jones
8. Tyreek Hill
9. Saquon Barkley
10. Jonathan Taylor
11. Travis Kelce
12. D.K. Metcalf

That's a good list.  There could be some off-season happenings that could really be interesting with this group of players.

  • Cook always gets hurt, so he's going to miss games.  Fortunately, the Vikings give him the ball down at the goal line and he scores a lot of TD's.  The thing that would cause me some hesitation on taking him #1 would be the injuries.  He does get hurt every year, it's just a matter of time until he misses a lot of games.  Something else to look for would be the draft.  Cook has 2 years left on his deal that have high cap hits.  The last 2 are nominal.  I could see the Vikings looking to take a RB in round 2 or 3 and try to get him into the fold so that the Vikings can move on from Cook after the 2022 season.  This could eat into Cook's production.
  • With Kamara, we saw his production take a good hit when Taysom Hill was the QB.  He put up decent numbers, sure, but they were RB2 numbers... not top 5 numbers.  What the Saints do in the offseason with their QB situation (because I think Brees retires), will/should affect Kamara's draft slot.
  • Nick Chubb is heading into a contract year.  Hunt was just given a 2-year deal which this coming season will guarantee him like $5M after bonuses and what not, are paid.  Does Chubb hold out?  Do they give him a long term deal?  Do they trade him?  The answer to these questions could have a pretty big impact on where he goes in the draft.
  • The Packers drafted a RB last year in the second round and he played pretty well.  Jones apparently just turned down a contract offer that would make him a top 5 paid RB.  I'm thinking that with the new RB and Jones turning down the offer, he's not going to be in Green Bay next season.   Where he goes, could affect his draft status.
  • Over the last 2 seasons Barkley missed 17 games.  I think he's a talented player, but I think his apparent fragility will cause him to drop to the 2nd round.
  • Taylor had a decent year, up and down at times, but was able to put up huge games against terrible defenses at the end of the season.  I think that will influence people to take Taylor pretty high, maybe even top 3 depending how some of the prior mentioned off-season goes.  I'll pass on him top 3... even round 1.  People quickly forget that Marlon Mack had a really good year last year.  I've heard the same old lines of "So and so's performance made people forget about him".  Well, Taylor's 2020 season wasn't all that much different that Mack's 2019 season.  Even though Mack played in only 14 games (12 starts), he did actually have more carries that year than Taylor did in 2020... 247 compared to 232.  Yes, Taylor averaged 5 ypc and Mack 4.4.  Taylor did have 12 total TD's and Mack had 8.  Taylor did have 36 receptions for 300 yards while Mack only had 14 for 82.  But, and that's actually a big "but", Taylor played with a QB who brought them to the playoffs and Mack played with Jacoby Brissett.  Who's the guy in 2021?  I'd be leery of this backfield.  Could be RBBC next year.  The big thing to keep tabs on is Mack's contract.  He's a UFA this off-season.  It's possible that he signs elsewhere, which will definitely make Taylor a top 5 (or even 3), candidate.  But if the Colts re-sign him, I'll have Taylor at the top of my DND draft because he'll go in the 1st or top of the 2nd round and I wouldn't even consider him until the 3rd... 4th pending on who I took in the first two rounds.
  • Metcalf is an interesting player.  He's talented, but after that game in Philly this year... things didn't look right in Seattle?  Not with anyone... Metcalf, Wilson, Lockett, and Carson.  Part in parcel is probably due to Carson's injuries, but I'm not sure.  I don't think I want Metcalf as my WR1 next year.  I will be ok with him if I have a top 3-5 pick and he falls to me, but maybe not, depending on who else is there.  I'll be interested to see what Seattle does to improve their line and their offense this off-season... especially concerning Lockett, who will be going into a contract year.  Will he hold out?

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