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edjr

NFL divisional round gamblin' - Who you got?

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Brownies @ Chefs - 9.5

Ravens @ Bills - 2.5

Rams @ Pack -7

Bucs @ Saints - 3.5

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Saints are done, the refs did all they could for them yesterday, but that won't fly with Brady.  Pack will win by 15. Browns will cover. 

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3 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Saints are done, the refs did all they could for them yesterday, but that won't fly with Brady.  Pack will win by 15. Browns will cover. 

Saints did look bad. I have a feeling they will look better this weekend.

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Just now, edjr said:

Saints did look bad. I have a feeling they will look better this weekend.

When the guy threw the ball to the ref and got a 15 yard penalty for taunting, I knew the fix was in.  Nevermind the tackling on every play by the Saint O-line. 

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Just now, TimmySmith said:

When the guy threw the ball to the ref and got a 15 yard penalty for taunting, I knew the fix was in.  Nevermind the tackling on every play by the Saint O-line. 

I knew when Wims dropped the easiest TD in the history of history, they were cooked.

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1 hour ago, edjr said:

Brownies @ Chefs - 9.5

Ravens @ Bills - 2.5

Rams @ Pack -7

Bucs @ Saints - 3.5

Aside from taking the 3.5 from the Saints, take the home teams in the other 3 and give the points.

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1 hour ago, TimmySmith said:

When the guy threw the ball to the ref and got a 15 yard penalty for taunting, I knew the fix was in.  Nevermind the tackling on every play by the Saint O-line. 

yeah, that was pretty bad.  tossed it as light as could be right in refs hands.

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I say browns cover. Chiefs will win by 7.

bills -2.5

packers -7.  I would take the packers -17.  They will cruise.

Bucs +3.5.  I think the they win outright.

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The Browns and Chiefs are tough to figure out.  Both suffer from injury issues, aren't really 100%, Chiefs winning a lot of close games, Browns up and down.  A part of me is still kinda scared of Andy Reid's penchant for making mind-boggingly dumb calls in the playoffs and the Chiefs look sloppy a lot this year.   Chiefs have not covered the spread in a million years too.

Ravens and Bills both have the ability to destroy their opponent any given sunday.  I don't know which way that will go.

Gimmie the Packers minus 7.  I think the Rams will absolutely need to run and play defense and play keep away from the Packers but Rodgers is just lethal this season and the Rams aren't good enough to pull that off.

Gimmie the Buccaneers and the 3.5 points.  Saints offense looks iffy so I think Brady will lead them to a win in the end.

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A big problem for the Chiefs is that their offensive line is suffering from a lot of injuries.  Left Tackle Eric Fisher has a bad back and is going up against Myles Garrett.  Right Tackle Mitchell Schwartz is out also with a bad back.  Mahomes has been under a lot more pressure as of late and getting sacked more.  The Browns have the best pass rush of the remaining AFC teams.

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2 hours ago, edjr said:

Brownies @ Chefs - 9.5

Ravens @ Bills - 2.5

Rams @ Pack -7

Bucs @ Saints - 3.5

Brownies are going to lose big to KC and they won their SB last night. Others are tough and go Pack -7! Bills are for real and I may take them too!

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Give me the Bills and Pack, I'll lay the points. 

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No gamblin.

But go Bills, Browns, Bucs.

Rams versus Packers can beat themselves to death for all I care.

 

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Only fudge packer fans want them to win. That would be a glorious upset

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3 hours ago, Cruzer said:

Give me the Bills and Pack, I'll lay the points. 

I can't go against the Ravens.  Harbaugh seems to always keep things close.  The Pack will roll.  

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I like the Bills. It expect the common man to take Baltimore and the line will drop to 
Bills -2 or even -1.5.  

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6 hours ago, edjr said:

I knew when Wims dropped the easiest TD in the history of history, they were cooked.

I knew Wims was the deep threat option and played him as my captain in Draftkings.  I cash quite nicely if he catches that pass.

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On 1/11/2021 at 7:57 PM, dain11279 said:

Everybody stop betting Buffalo :mad:

Not sure yet but I think the Ravens will be a public dog.  Which is real good for the Bills.

Seems like everyone was in love with thr Bills last week.  Now seems like everyone is in love with the Ravens.

Ravens have a good team well rounded.  But they scored a whopping 20pts vs one of the very worst defenses in the NFL.  If I didnt know the score of that game I would think they won 35-17 the way people are talking this week.

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In the Tampa game, wait for in-game betting.  Watch Tampa on the Saints first drive offensive drive.  If the Bucs are playing zone defense, bet your mortgage on the Saints.

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Considering I'm the greatest prognosticator on the planet, let alone this forum... here are the answers:

Rams at Packers - Rams had a nice little run at the end, but it's over johnny.  Blowout Packers by 21.

Ravens at Bills - Game ends on a field goal.  Ravens are hot, Bills are good.  I'll take hot in the playoffs... Ravens by 2.

Browns at Chiefs - This ain't your goldfish's Chiefs. They'll win because Andy Reid off a bye can't be stopped, but this ain't a blowout.  Chiefs by 4.

Bucs at Saints - The Bucs are a scrappy team with thrown together parts. The Saints are a well-oiled machine. Saints by 7.

 

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Its going to be very cold and snowy for Bills-Ravens.  One of the issues with cold, snowy games is that turnovers are much more likely.  The Ravens offense flows thru Lamar Jackson and he is fumble prone.  Wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens QB cough it up twice.

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On 1/11/2021 at 10:16 AM, TimmySmith said:

When the guy threw the ball to the ref and got a 15 yard penalty for taunting, I knew the fix was in.  Nevermind the tackling on every play by the Saint O-line. 

That penalty was nuts. 

For those who haven't seen it. Looks like you have to click link to watch it on youtube.

 

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Chiefs CEH is still hobbled and missing practices as of thursday.  So the Chiefs starting RB and both OTs are looking at either being out or much less than 100%.  Browns getting just about everyone back.

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On 1/11/2021 at 4:14 PM, TimmySmith said:

I can't go against the Ravens.  Harbaugh seems to always keep things close.  The Pack will roll.  

I think the Ravens will win outright and maybe beat the Chiefs next week.   Man I hate that team.

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On 1/13/2021 at 11:29 PM, JustinCharge said:

Its going to be very cold and snowy for Bills-Ravens.  One of the issues with cold, snowy games is that turnovers are much more likely.  The Ravens offense flows thru Lamar Jackson and he is fumble prone.  Wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens QB cough it up twice.

This is true but I dont think its going to be that bad.  The wind may actually be more of a factor and that hurts Allen more.  Although he has the biggest arm in the league.  So perhaps he just cuts through it.  

From what I see is like 32.  Snow but towards the 2nd half.  15 to 25mph winds.  

They say Lamar has never played in snow.  Winch I find odd since he plays in Baltimore in the AFC North.

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7 hours ago, Bill E. said:

I think the Ravens will win outright and maybe beat the Chiefs next week.   Man I hate that team.

I think they have a real solid team.  Solid defense.  Solid coaching.  Good run game with a threat/playmaker at QB.  You have to force Lamar to pass.  

That said by listening to people this week you would think they blew the doors off Tennessee.  Their defense played real well vs Henry and a good Titans offense.  But Lamar with like 150 rush yards scored a whopping 20pts vs one of the very worst defenses in the league.  May that shows they can beat you in different ways.  But just seems like everyone is touting the Ravens all of a sudden.  

I think it will be a good game for sure.  If the Bills limit the big plays they win.  Make Lamar run for 5 or 6 a pop and take hits rather than letting him get loose for 50 or throw a bomb in 1 on 1 coverage.  Make him have to methodically drive it down the field.

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The Browns are so foreign to this round of the playoffs in modern times that they are fascinating to observe as an interloper to the playoff record books.

 

The Browns have faced the defending Super Bowl champions in the playoffs only once before, December 26th, 1971.  Nick Skorich's and Bill Nelsen's Browns lost to Johnny Unitas and the defending Super Bowl champion Colts in Cleveland Stadium for the right to go to the Super Bowl.  The Colts would lose to Don Shula's and Bob Griese's Dolphins in the Super Bowl the next week. 

The Browns have never played more than 2 playoff games in the same season in their history.  This is the 9th time they have played 2.  The Browns are 2-6 in that second playoff game.  This is the second time the Browns have played 2 road playoff games.  The first time was in 1969, when they beat the Cowboys in Dallas and then lost to the Vikings in Minnesota.  5 of those losses had a Super Bowl berth on the line.  The last time the Browns won that second playoff game was 1950 vs the Los Angeles Rams:  Otto Graham and Paul Brown vs Bob Waterfield and Joe Stydahar.  The Browns have never won 2 road playoff games in the same season in their history.

The Browns scored 48 points in a playoff game last week.  They have scored more than 48 twice:  The 1948 AAFC title game vs the Buffalo Bills (49-7 final score) and the 1954 NFL title game vs the Lions. (56-10 final score)

The Browns collected 5 turnovers in last week's playoff win over the Steelers.  They have collected more than 5 turnovers in a playoff game thrice.
1.  They collected 8 turnovers vs the Buffalo Bills in the 1948 AAFC title game. (Browns won 49-7)
2.  They collected 9 turnovers vs the Detroit Lions in the 1954 NFL title game. (Browns won 56-10)
3.  They collected 7 turnovers vs the Los Angeles Rams in the 1955 NFL title game.  (Browns won 38-14)

The Browns have never played a playoff game where they collected 0 turnovers. 

The Browns did not turn the ball over in the playoff win over the Steelers.   That is only the 3rd time in 37 playoff games they did not commit a turnover.  The other 2 times were:
1. The 1949 AAFC title game vs the San Francisco 49ers. (Browns won 21-7)
2. The 1969 divisional playoff game vs the Dallas Cowboys (Browns won 38-14)

The Browns will play the Chiefs in a playoff game on January 17th.  That ties the latest date in the league year they have played a game.  They also played on January 17th in 1988, the AFC title game at the Broncos where they lost 38-33 in the "Byner Fumble" game.

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2 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

I think they have a real solid team.  Solid defense.  Solid coaching.  Good run game with a threat/playmaker at QB.  You have to force Lamar to pass.  

That said by listening to people this week you would think they blew the doors off Tennessee.  Their defense played real well vs Henry and a good Titans offense.  But Lamar with like 150 rush yards scored a whopping 20pts vs one of the very worst defenses in the league.  May that shows they can beat you in different ways.  But just seems like everyone is touting the Ravens all of a sudden.  

I think it will be a good game for sure.  If the Bills limit the big plays they win.  Make Lamar run for 5 or 6 a pop and take hits rather than letting him get loose for 50 or throw a bomb in 1 on 1 coverage.  Make him have to methodically drive it down the field.

The Ravens match up very poorly vs the Titans, so that win (on the road) was huge. This game against the Bills is not as much about Lamar as it is about Allen.  Lamar should be loose.

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1 minute ago, TimmySmith said:

The Ravens match up very poorly vs the Titans, so that win (on the road) was huge. This game against the Bills is not as much about Lamar as it is about Allen.  Lamar should be loose.

I guess.  I mean 20pts.  I watched that Titans D a few times this year and they are absolutely one of the worst in the league with no real redeeming quality.  They suck at each level.  

If the Ravens come out and score 20 this week they lose.

Yes it is on Allen to move the ball.  He was number 1 vs the blitz this year.  Baltimore was first in blitzes.  

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Also home field doesnt mean much this year.  I believe away teams were exactly .500 or maybe even 1 or 2 games better than .500 this year.  Titans had no weather and their fans suck.   Meanwhile John Harbaugh has like thr most road playoff wins ever or something.  

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2 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

I think they have a real solid team.  Solid defense.  Solid coaching.  Good run game with a threat/playmaker at QB.  You have to force Lamar to pass.  

That said by listening to people this week you would think they blew the doors off Tennessee.  Their defense played real well vs Henry and a good Titans offense.  But Lamar with like 150 rush yards scored a whopping 20pts vs one of the very worst defenses in the league.  May that shows they can beat you in different ways.  But just seems like everyone is touting the Ravens all of a sudden.  

I think it will be a good game for sure.  If the Bills limit the big plays they win.  Make Lamar run for 5 or 6 a pop and take hits rather than letting him get loose for 50 or throw a bomb in 1 on 1 coverage.  Make him have to methodically drive it down the field.

Everything you say makes sense and I hope you are right.  I just know that as a Steelers fan I am always watching those asshoes win games lat in the season and deep into the playoffs.  I hope you are right.

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I've noticed that picking against my rooting interests yields a high winning percentage.  (not looking at the spread).  So the teams that should win are:

Ravens
Chiefs
Rams
Saints

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