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Strike

UFC 257

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Might as well start talking about it now.  Personally, I hope Conor gets KTFO but not counting on it.  Will stream.

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37 minutes ago, Strike said:

Might as well start talking about it now.  Personally, I hope Conor gets KTFO but not counting on it.  Will stream.

Can't miss this one

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4 year fighting history

Dustin Poirier

Feb 2017 - Defeats Jim Miller via decision - Fight of the Night

May 2017 - No Contest vs Eddie Alvarez  (illegal knees Alvarez in the 2nd round)

Nov 2017 - Defeats Anthony Pettis via submission in 2nd round - Fight of the Night

Apr 2018 - Defeats Justin Gaethje via tko in 4th round - Fight of the Night

Jul 2018 - Defeats Eddie Alvarez via tko in 2nd round

Apr 2019 - Defeats Max Holloway via decision - Fight of the Night

Sep 2019 - Loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov via submission in 3rd round

Jun 2020 - Defeats Dan Hooker via decision - Fight of the Night

..........................................................................................................................................

Connor McGregor

*** No fights in 2017 ***

Oct 2018 - Loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov via submission in 4th round

*** No fights in 2019 ***

Jan 2020 - Defeats Donald Cerrone via tko in 1st round 

.............................................................................................................................................

Current Odds:

Conor McGregor -325   :blink:

Dustin Poirier +250

 

McGregor might win, ya never know, but his name alone is totally screwing up the odds. Considering the history, at best it should be a pick 'em.?.  I'll be betting on Poirier. 

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His name is juicing rhe odds some.  But by all accounts Conor ahould win this fight.   10 days ago you could have got him at -250.  And that wasnt the opening line even....betting mma is all about betting value on the openers.  Big swings and you can even hedge for profit if you are good at it.   Im not that guy but I can definitely tell when lines will inflate.  He may go to-350

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Its fighting things hapoen but a real bad style matchup for poirier.  He will have to take some real shots and then take over if he wants to win.   

Bottom line in my analysis is Poirier gets hit a lot.  Conor punches people in the face with extra pop than most his size.  Poirier goes down.  

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26 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

 Conor punches people in the face with extra pop than most his size.  Poirier goes down.  

If this fight was 3+ years go... ok, Conor wins easy.  But I can't get past the recent history.  Conor has ONE win in 4 years? That's insane.  And it wasn't even a big win - he beat a declining 37 y.o. Cerrone who had never beaten any of the greats and was on a 2 fight losing streak going in.  Throw in the fact that Conor is a total head case, arrested for destroying fan cell phone / smashing bus window / generally acting like a dumbass. Meanwhile, Poirier's recent history is very impressive with numerous Fight of the Night awards. 

Fighting styles be damned, those odds are messed up.

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1 hour ago, listen2me 23 said:

  

  Conor punches people in the face with extra pop than most his size.  Poirier goes down.  

 Poirier will come out like Aldo did and get put to sleep. 

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29 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

 

Fighting styles be damned, those odds are messed up.

Fight styles can absolutely NOT be damned. This isn't a good matchup for Poirier IMO. Dana knows that. 

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4 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

What time does this start?

Beer:30. I'm smoking a pork shoulder with homemade coleslaw and potaaaaato salad. Can't wait. 6pm MST

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6 minutes ago, shorepatrol said:

Beer:30. I'm smoking a pork shoulder with homemade coleslaw and potaaaaato salad. Can't wait. 6pm MST

So that's 9pm EST

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6 minutes ago, shorepatrol said:

Isn't it 8pm now?

Oh right MST is -2 from EST

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1 hour ago, shorepatrol said:

Fight styles can absolutely NOT be damned. This isn't a good matchup for Poirier IMO. Dana knows that. 

You're implying UCF wants McGregor to win?  Maybe they do given the ratings he draws, but they could've picked an easier target as Poirier's resume is scary good.

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7 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

If this fight was 3+ years go... ok, Conor wins easy.  But I can't get past the recent history.  Conor has ONE win in 4 years? That's insane.  And it wasn't even a big win - he beat a declining 37 y.o. Cerrone who had never beaten any of the greats and was on a 2 fight losing streak going in.  Throw in the fact that Conor is a total head case, arrested for destroying fan cell phone / smashing bus window / generally acting like a dumbass. Meanwhile, Poirier's recent history is very impressive with numerous Fight of the Night awards. 

Fighting styles be damned, those odds are messed up.

Conor is in the prime of his career age wise.  From all accounts he seems very focused and calm going into this fight.  He hasnt been able to fight for a year becausw of covid.  They didnt want to miss out on the gate he brought.  But had to give in when this covid wasnt going away soon enough.

Poirier getting FOTN awards isnt a good thing when handicapping this fight.  All it means is he took damage.  He has gotten hit a ton by lesser strikers than Conor.

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5 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

You're implying UCF wants McGregor to win?  Maybe they do given the ratings he draws, but they could've picked an easier target as Poirier's resume is scary good.

Implying UFC wants Conor to win? Come on man that is a given.  Why would they ever not want him to win? He is the biggest star in the sport by a mile.  

Yeah they could have given him an easier fight.  But they want Conor with a belt around his waste.  You cant just match him up vs faded fighters every time.  But they do know that stylistically this is a good matchup for him and a chance for him to get a marquee named win.

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6 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

Poirier getting FOTN awards isnt a good thing when handicapping this fight.  All it means is he took damage.  He has gotten hit a ton by lesser strikers than Conor.

Admittedly I don't follow UFC, so when I look at a fighter's history and see Fight of the Night awards for fights they won, to me that means they can take the punishment as well as dish it out.

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Just now, GobbleDog said:

Admittedly I don't follow UFC, so when I look at a fighter's history and see Fight of the Night awards for fights they won, to me that means they can take the punishment as well as dish it out.

Right.  But the object isnt to get hit in the face.  

Poirier has been KOd before.  He was KOd quick against Mcgregor but at 145lbs a while back.  

Most people dont survive many clean Conor shots.  Nate Diaz thats about it.  

Im not saying Poirier has no chance.  Im just saying I expect Conor to win and its a bad matchup for Poirier.  The line may be inflated some.  So if you are one to scavenge for any sort of value then yeah I guess Poirier bet makes sense.  

I dont bet at a high enough rate to play the value game.  

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2 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

How do I bet on this fight?

Go to a bookie, either IRL or online, and bet?  I use Bovada.  I don't normally bet on UFC but might for this fight.  This will be a good use of your crypto.  Bovada prefers bitcoin for deposits.

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2 minutes ago, Strike said:

Go to a bookie, either IRL or online, and bet?  I use Bovada.  I don't normally bet on UFC but might for this fight.  This will be a good use of your crypto.  Bovada prefers bitcoin for deposits.

I'll check it out. 

I assume you've been able to withdrawal from bovada?

 

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Just now, Cdub100 said:

I'll check it out. 

I assume you've been able to withdrawal from bovada?

 

I'm not good enough at sports betting to withdrawal :(.  But I've never heard of any issues doing so.  They've been around for a long time.  If they had those types of issues they would have been gone a long time ago.

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32 minutes ago, Strike said:

I'm not good enough at sports betting to withdrawal :(.  But I've never heard of any issues doing so.  They've been around for a long time.  If they had those types of issues they would have been gone a long time ago.

.com or .lv

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40 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I assume you've been able to withdrawal from bovada?

Years back when Bovada was Bodog, I made a few withdraws in one year for a total of $1,500...  greatest gambling year I ever had.   And that was with shady Bodog where some reported checks bouncing, though mine cashed just fine. I have 100% confidence in Bovada paying out, considering they still get an A+ rating from review sites and I haven't read any issues on the gambling forums.

However, Bovada sucks ass when it comes to sports betting.  I was using 5Dimes until after 30+ years in the business they shut down a few months back. So by default I went back to my old Bovada account until I settle on a new site. 

So, why does Bovada suck for sports betting?  Ugh...  highest juice in the business, fewest betting options, worst futures odds, slowest lines, and extra juice on favorites....  at 5Dimes I could money-line parlay ANY sport or prop bet together.  Not at Bovada - certain sports/events/futures/props cannot be parlayed together.  It especially pissed me off, because that's how I gamble.  "Will so and so win by 8.5 points?"  Who the hell knows, but I'm pretty damn sure they'll win the game.  So I money-line parlay them with another favorite or two.  Makes gambling much easier for amateur cappers like me. The trick is being very selective on which favorites you pick of course.

Bovada seems to cater to low-end betters who don't care about juice, or gambling options. They just want a well-known flashy site which also has poker.  But catering to Joe Schmoe public is exactly why Bovada juices the favorites extra hard - knowing the public generally bets favorites.  If every other site has an NFL favorite at -2.5, then Bovada will list them at -3... but at -115  or -120 juice.  It's how they roll.

And futures odds, forget it.... think the Milwaukee Bucs will win the NBA title this year?  Bovada currently lists them at 6.5:1 odds even though every other site has them at 6.9:1.  Small difference, but want to shoot for a longshot... Detroit Pistons win the NBA title - Bovada currently lists them at 500:1, while other sites have them listed at 1,200:1.   That's insane. I hate Bovada. Good for poker and horse-racing, that is all.

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3 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Years back when Bovada was Bodog, I made a few withdraws in one year for a total of $1,500...  greatest gambling year I ever had.   And that was with shady Bodog where some reported checks bouncing, though mine cashed just fine. I have 100% confidence in Bovada paying out, considering they still get an A+ rating from review sites and I haven't read any issues on the gambling forums.

However, Bovada sucks ass when it comes to sports betting.  I was using 5Dimes until after 30+ years in the business they shut down a few months back. So by default I went back to my old Bovada account until I settle on a new site. 

So, why does Bovada suck for sports betting?  Ugh...  highest juice in the business, fewest betting options, worst futures odds, slowest lines, and extra juice on favorites....  at 5Dimes I could money-line parlay ANY sport or prop bet together.  Not at Bovada - certain sports/events/futures/props cannot be parlayed together.  It especially pissed me off, because that's how I gamble.  "Will so and so win by 8.5 points?"  Who the hell knows, but I'm pretty damn sure they'll win the game.  So I money-line parlay them with another favorite or two.  Makes gambling much easier for amateur cappers like me. The trick is being very selective on which favorites you pick of course.

Bovada seems to cater to low-end betters who don't care about juice, or gambling options. They just want a well-known flashy site which also has poker.  But catering to Joe Schmoe public is exactly why Bovada juices the favorites extra hard - knowing the public generally bets favorites.  If every other site has an NFL favorite at -2.5, then Bovada will list them at -3... but at -115  or -120 juice.  It's how they roll.

And futures odds, forget it.... think the Milwaukee Bucs will win the NBA title this year?  Bovada currently lists them at 6.5:1 odds even though every other site has them at 6.9:1.  Small difference, but want to shoot for a longshot... Detroit Pistons win the NBA title - Bovada currently lists them at 500:1, while other sites have them listed at 1,200:1.   That's insane. I hate Bovada.

I want to put some money down on Dustin. I'm not into all that other stuff. 

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2 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I want to put some money down on Dustin. I'm not into all that other stuff. 

Then Bovada is perfect for you, and you're perfect for Bovada.

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7 hours ago, Strike said:

Go to a bookie, either IRL or online, and bet?  I use Bovada.  I don't normally bet on UFC but might for this fight.  This will be a good use of your crypto.  Bovada prefers bitcoin for deposits.

I really need to figure out this crypto thing. I've won enough I might want to pull some. 

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22 minutes ago, shorepatrol said:

I really need to figure out this crypto thing. I've won enough I might want to pull some. 

Hit me up if you have questions. Really all you need to do is set up a wallet they can send your BTC to. I recommend Exodus Wallet.

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6 hours ago, Strike said:

I sent my BTC and I'm like Where the FOCK is my money. I didn't realize they convert the BTC into mBTC

1 mBTC = 32.5167200 USD

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Okay I am putting money on Dustin.

Who are my other winners?

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15 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

Okay I am putting money on Dustin.

Who are my other winners?

bump. I don't do a lot of betting give me your winners. please.

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5 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

I don't do a lot of betting give me your winners. please.

I have a small wager on Sara McMann -140 ... parlayed with BYU moneyline (-700).  Why Sara?  The other chick doesn't have nearly as much experience and got arrested a couple months back - bar fight, which sounds like no focus/head case to me. Also, some cappers I respect picked her.

Also betting Rountree -400 parlayed with another ncaab favorite on the moneyline... Oregon (-500). Might add another ncaab near lock to that bet to closer to even money, say  North Dakota St (-1700).

As you see, I parlay favorites and mix up sports.

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15 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I have a small wager on Sara McMann -140 ... parlayed with BYU moneyline (-700).  Why Sara?  The other chick doesn't have nearly as much experience and got arrested a couple months back - bar fight, which sounds like no focus/head case to me. Also, some cappers I respect picked her.

Also betting Rountree -400 parlayed with another ncaab favorite on the moneyline... Oregon (-500). Might add another ncaab near lock to that bet to closer to even money, say  North Dakota St (-1700).

As you see, I parlay favorites and mix up sports.

I put it all on, Dustin a few hours ago.

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33 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I put it all on, Dustin a few hours ago.

Pros recommend a max of 5% of your bankroll on any single wager.

Glad we ain't pros.  Kick his ass Poirier !!!

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5 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Pros recommend a max of 5% of your bankroll on any single wager.

Glad we ain't pros.  Kick his ass Poirier !!!

I mean I only sent a couple hundo in BTC. If I lose my kids will only have to skip breakfast for a month.

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This must be free in Australia cuz the stream I'm watching is showing Australian commercials

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"Ladies and Gentlemen.... we are LIVVVVVEEEE !" 

As opposed to what, pre-recorded?  Dumbest pre-fight hype statement all time.    :thumbsdown:

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